Which player do you have the most confidence in for 2023? 

Mine is Moncada because he generally plays the most games, was mostly fine from the right side in 2022 after a while and his left hand swing, which is usually his better side, was fucked all season due to the oblique injury. 

My least confident is Grandal because he's a 34 year old catcher that has leg problems. 

 

Only reason I didn't pick one of Giolito/Robert/Jimenez: 

I think Robert and Eloy are just perpetually injury prone

I have no idea if Giolito's body will cooperate. I trust him to put in the work to get velo back, I have no idea whether or not it will happen for him. 

162 game fWAR averages: 

Jimenez-2.6

Moncada-3.4

Grandal-5.4

Robert-4.8

 

If you think 120 games is more fair for Grandal, his fWAR is 4.0 in that case.

 

 

175 IP fWAR averages

Kopech-2.3

Giolito-2.7

Edited December 18, 20223 yr by Jack Parkman

Most is Eloy - we saw what a healthy Eloy at DH could do and it was awesome at the end of the year. Benintendi keeps him in that role. I expect this to be the year he finally establishes himself as a top bat in the AL.

Least is Grandal. I'm not a Grandal hater by any means, but the injury concern with him is very real. I have low expectations for him. I think he will be better than what we saw last year, but I do worry how much of a shell he may be of his former self.

Edited December 18, 20223 yr by CWSpalehoseCWS

Just now, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Most is Eloy - we saw what a healthy Eloy at DH could do and it was awesome at the end of the year. I expect this to be the year he finally establishes himself as a top bat in the AL.

Least is Grandal. I'm not a Grandal hater by any means, but the injury concern with him is very real. I have low expectations for him. I think he will be better than what we saw last year, but I do worry how much of a shell he may be of his former self.

Eloy tore his hammy running to 1B. I have to see him stay healthy for a season before having any confidence. 

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

Eloy tore his hammy running to 1B. I have to see him stay healthy for a season before having any confidence. 

That's a freak injury though. Lots of players - both athletic and not athletic - can suffer that injury. Eloy running into the net, trying to rob a HR, running into Robert, or diving for a ball he has a 0% catch probability of making is where he becomes his own worse enemy.

5 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Most is Eloy - we saw what a healthy Eloy at DH could do and it was awesome at the end of the year. Benintendi keeps him in that role. I expect this to be the year he finally establishes himself as a top bat in the AL.

Least is Grandal. I'm not a Grandal hater by any means, but the injury concern with him is very real. I have low expectations for him. I think he will be better than what we saw last year, but I do worry how much of a shell he may be of his former self.

I voted the same way for the same reasons.  

2 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

That's a freak injury though. Lots of players - both athletic and not athletic - can suffer that injury. Eloy running into the net, trying to rob a HR, running into Robert, or diving for a ball he has a 0% catch probability of making is where he becomes his own worse enemy.

So was the freak injury when he tore his pec in 2021 ST. How many freak injuries is he allowed? 

Tough to answer because it’s all relative. How are you defining most/least confident? Confidence in what? 

2 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Tough to answer because it’s all relative. How are you defining most/least confident? Confidence in what? 

Having a good season and/or staying on the field in 2023. 

Thread title changed for clarity. 

Edited December 18, 20223 yr by Jack Parkman

Staying healthy makes this an interesting wrinkle. Moncada and Giolito are probably the 2 most likely guys to just stay on the field. I think there's very little performance risk with those guys too, but at the same time, ~120 games from Robert probably makes him the most valuable player on the team.

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Having a good season and/or staying on the field in 2023. 

But how are you defining a good season?  Is it relative to their past performances? Or just relative to the rest of the league at their respective positions?

1 minute ago, SoxBlanco said:

But how are you defining a good season?  Is it relative to their past performances? Or just relative to the rest of the league at their respective positions?

Returning to their career average fWAR or better. 

Edited December 18, 20223 yr by Jack Parkman

If Robert only plays ~100 games next season but he's the most valuable player on the team, would he be the correct answer? Or do we give guys extra credit for staying on the field even if they produce less overall value.

Just now, maxjusttyped said:

If Robert only plays ~100 games next season but he's the most valuable player on the team, would he be the correct answer? Or do we give guys extra credit for staying on the field even if they produce less overall value.

Extra credit for staying on the field. 

8 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

So was the freak injury when he tore his pec in 2021 ST. How many freak injuries is he allowed? 

Eloy didn't have to jump and hang from his arm on that play. He should have known better. Running to 1B is a damn requirement on the game. Do you have the same feelings towards Anderson and his hamstrings? Why isn't he on this list to vote for when he has a fair share amount of nagging injuries each and every year?

I think this is the year Robert is healthy and puts it all together. 
 

I don’t believe Granda is as bad at hitting a baseball as he was last year. But in order for him to have any value to us he needs to catch on a pretty regular basis…I have very little confidence he can still do that. 

Just now, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Eloy didn't have to jump and hang from his arm on that play. He should have known better. Running to 1B is a damn requirement on the game. Do you have the same feelings towards Anderson and his hamstrings? Why isn't he on this list to vote for when he has a fair share amount of nagging injuries each and every year?

When Anderson was healthy he was good. Also Anderson hasn't had a major injury 2 seasons in a row. 

Edited December 18, 20223 yr by Jack Parkman

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Returning to their career average fWAR or better. 

I like those rules. We should calculate each player’s career average fWAR. 

2 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

I like those rules. We should calculate each player’s career average fWAR. 

It's really easy to look up their average on fangraphs. 

Edited December 18, 20223 yr by Jack Parkman

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

It's really easy to look up their 162 game average on fangraphs. 

That’s an important distinction if you are basing it off of their 162 game average. I agree that’s the way to go, though. You mind posting the numbers for each in your original post?

19 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

That’s an important distinction if you are basing it off of their 162 game average. I agree that’s the way to go, though. You mind posting the numbers for each in your original post?

Done. I calculated 162 game averages and 33 start averages for SP. 

I'm actually going to change the formula to 175 IP for the starters. 

Edited December 18, 20223 yr by Jack Parkman

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Done. I calculated 162 game averages and 33 start averages for SP. 

Awesome. Thank you.

It’s really tempting to choose Kopech for most confident based on those numbers.  I’m debating between him and Eloy. 

Least confident has to be Grandal based on those numbers. 

1 minute ago, SoxBlanco said:

Awesome. Thank you.

It’s really tempting to choose Kopech for most confident based on those numbers.  I’m debating between him and Eloy. 

Least confident has to be Grandal based on those numbers. 

Changed it to 175 IP numbers. Kopech was dinged by his relief pitching. 

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

Changed it to 175 IP numbers. Kopech was dinged by his relief pitching. 

Good call. I think it’s a very solid poll now. I’ll go with Eloy and Grandal, respectively. 

Say what you want about Eloy, but the bat is special. Definitely the most confident in him than the others.

Least is probably Grandal. Another year older, another year he'll likely get injured even with the shift change that SHOULD help him.

Grandal will be off the team or out for the season with an injury by June. Book it.