2023-24 NFL Season Thread

[Chisoxfn]

I was listening to Matt Hasselbach on this morning.  He brought up an interesting point - basically he thinks Maye is an absolute physical stud.  So he puts Maye in the same light as Herbert / Allen from a pure physical gift perspective. Not saying his on field performance is necessarily all the way there - but that when you think of his age, what he can do, how he spins it, his character, etc - he really has everything. He might be a bit more raw - but he's also still super young and for those close to him - he's likely still growing.  

In Hasselbach's eyes, Maye is one of the most talented QB's to come out in the draft in the last 5-10 years (he didn't say Caleb wasn't either) - but basically he said - these 2 guys are going to grade out massively well.  If that is the case - his view was, Bears SHOULD keep that view extremely close to the vest so the rest of the league (specifically Washington doesn't know) and essentialy force Washington's hand.  

In short - Hasselbach thinks Williams & Maye are elite QB prospects and doesn't differentiate much between the two.  Pure tools he thinks Maye is BETTER.  So if Washington really wants Williams - play tough - and get the #2, #40 (2nd rounder which was the Bears), and a #1 next year (this is probably realistic - if you really pushed - maybe you could get both 2nd rounders this year - but that might be a lot less likely).  He had Bears than trading Fields (lets say for a 2nd and 3rd).  

Now you are looking at Bears having 6 picks in the 1st 3 rounds in '24.  

#2 - Drake Maye

#9 - Weapon for Maye (OT/TE/WR) or you can take Top Dline 

2nd Rounder (from Washington) - Center or Defense

2nd Rounder (for Fields) - Deep wideout draft - so could go that or you could go safety (Ejax replacement)

3rd Rounder (for Fields) - BPA

3rd Rounder (Bears) - BPA

In 24 Bears have - 4 Picks in 1st 2 rounds 

Own 1st Rounder

Washington 1st Rounder

Own 2nd Rounder

Carolina 2nd Rounder 

Note: They may even have 1 more higher end pick - depending on the value they could extract from Washington.  I will caveat - I think what is proposed above is NOT unrealistic.  It assumed Fields goes for a 2nd and 3rd rounder (which i think is a reasonable assumption). It has Washington giving up a 1st next year and 2nd rounder this year - which I think is in the ballpark.  I think anything less and it isn't worth it for the Bears to make the move and I certainly could see scenario(s) where the Bears could get a bit more.  

[Chisoxfn]

Seperate question - was there a QB taken at #2 (in a #1 / #2 group) who ended up being really good?  I know there are ones that have been taken later that ended up elevating (say a Big Ben) or a Phil Rivers. But in a draft where QB went #1/#2 - is there a data set for a that 2nd pick who ended up being really good (vs. not).  

Update: I looked it up.

You had:

Bledsoe / Mirer - Mirer stunk

Manning / Leaf - Leaf stunk

Couch / McNabb - McNabb was a hit

Goff / Wentz - Wentz eventually stunk - albeit there was a point where he looked better than Goff 

Lawrence / Wilson - Wilson stunk

[Chisoxfn]

Seperate question - was there a QB taken at #2 (in a #1 / #2 group) who ended up being really good?  I know there are ones that have been taken later that ended up elevating (say a Big Ben) or a Phil Rivers. But in a draft where QB went #1/#2 - is there a data set for a that 2nd pick who ended up being really good (vs. not).  

 

[Chisoxfn]

Edit: I fell for a tweet that got retweeted but was related to Feb 23 (not this year).  

[caulfield12]

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-insider-reports-interesting-findings-011704435.html

On Caleb Williams' character

Edited February 8 by caulfield12

[bmags]

So 2 years ago I thought Seattle would be worst team in league. Last year I thought bucs would be.

And this year I just...cannot...theres just no way this Patriots stuff works.

So anyway they'll definitely be in the playoffs.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

So 2 years ago I thought Seattle would be worst team in league. Last year I thought bucs would be.

And this year I just...cannot...theres just no way this Patriots stuff works.

So anyway they'll definitely be in the playoffs.

What "Patriot stuff"? Mayo?

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

What "Patriot stuff"? Mayo?

Yes, firing belicheck and keeping the same front office, same coaching staff.

[southsider2k5]

16 minutes ago, bmags said:

So 2 years ago I thought Seattle would be worst team in league. Last year I thought bucs would be.

And this year I just...cannot...theres just no way this Patriots stuff works.

So anyway they'll definitely be in the playoffs.

It sounds like A LOT of that franchise did not get along with Bill.  There might be some gains to be made just from that.

[Balta1701]

12 minutes ago, bmags said:

Yes, firing belicheck and keeping the same front office, same coaching staff.

They did hire a new OC right?

[bmags]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

It sounds like A LOT of that franchise did not get along with Bill.  There might be some gains to be made just from that.

I feel like when Bears were interviewing Eliot Wolf the stuff he got credit for was convincing Bill to spend big on a FA class which ended up being like 3 tight ends that were bad. 

[Balta1701]

“Ridiculous”

[caulfield12]

https://www.nbcsportschicago.com/nfl/chicago-bears/bears-analysis/kurt-warner-delivers-powerful-case-for-bears-to-move-on-from-justin-fields/538795/

[LittleHurtCG]

23 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

I was listening to Matt Hasselbach on this morning.  He brought up an interesting point - basically he thinks Maye is an absolute physical stud.  So he puts Maye in the same light as Herbert / Allen from a pure physical gift perspective. Not saying his on field performance is necessarily all the way there - but that when you think of his age, what he can do, how he spins it, his character, etc - he really has everything. He might be a bit more raw - but he's also still super young and for those close to him - he's likely still growing.  

In Hasselbach's eyes, Maye is one of the most talented QB's to come out in the draft in the last 5-10 years (he didn't say Caleb wasn't either) - but basically he said - these 2 guys are going to grade out massively well.  If that is the case - his view was, Bears SHOULD keep that view extremely close to the vest so the rest of the league (specifically Washington doesn't know) and essentialy force Washington's hand.  

In short - Hasselbach thinks Williams & Maye are elite QB prospects and doesn't differentiate much between the two.  Pure tools he thinks Maye is BETTER.  So if Washington really wants Williams - play tough - and get the #2, #40 (2nd rounder which was the Bears), and a #1 next year (this is probably realistic - if you really pushed - maybe you could get both 2nd rounders this year - but that might be a lot less likely).  He had Bears than trading Fields (lets say for a 2nd and 3rd).  

Now you are looking at Bears having 6 picks in the 1st 3 rounds in '24.  

#2 - Drake Maye

#9 - Weapon for Maye (OT/TE/WR) or you can take Top Dline 

2nd Rounder (from Washington) - Center or Defense

2nd Rounder (for Fields) - Deep wideout draft - so could go that or you could go safety (Ejax replacement)

3rd Rounder (for Fields) - BPA

3rd Rounder (Bears) - BPA

In 24 Bears have - 4 Picks in 1st 2 rounds 

Own 1st Rounder

Washington 1st Rounder

Own 2nd Rounder

Carolina 2nd Rounder 

Note: They may even have 1 more higher end pick - depending on the value they could extract from Washington.  I will caveat - I think what is proposed above is NOT unrealistic.  It assumed Fields goes for a 2nd and 3rd rounder (which i think is a reasonable assumption). It has Washington giving up a 1st next year and 2nd rounder this year - which I think is in the ballpark.  I think anything less and it isn't worth it for the Bears to make the move and I certainly could see scenario(s) where the Bears could get a bit more.  

I don't see the Bears trading down to take Maye. Maye went to school at North Carolina and that qb experience already failed miserably. Probably pretty dumb to base a decision on something like that, but it will 100% play a factor in Poles thinking. The storylines will write themselves if Maye struggles in the slighest. 

[caulfield12]

13 minutes ago, LittleHurtCG said:

I don't see the Bears trading down to take Maye. Maye went to school at North Carolina and that qb experience already failed miserably. Probably pretty dumb to base a decision on something like that, but it will 100% play a factor in Poles thinking. The storylines will write themselves if Maye struggles in the slighest. 

Just because of Howell...?

[LittleHurtCG]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Just because of Howell...?

Mitch Trubisky. The kid with the rocket arm from North Carolina..

[Flash Tizzle]

7 minutes ago, LittleHurtCG said:

I don't see the Bears trading down to take Maye. Maye went to school at North Carolina and that qb experience already failed miserably. Probably pretty dumb to base a decision on something like that, but it will 100% play a factor in Poles thinking. The storylines will write themselves if Maye struggles in the slighest. 

If all their resources - scouts, analytics, etc. come up with Maye as the #1 pick - he should be selected. If he is overlooked because Mitch also played at UNC, and they’re scared of the narrative, Poles may as well resign immediately. We cannot have people scared to fail. The Beara should be so confident in their selection that theyre willing to overlook that.

[LittleHurtCG]

2 minutes ago, Flash Tizzle said:

If all their resources - scouts, analytics, etc. come up with Maye as the #1 pick - he should be selected. If he is overlooked because Mitch also played at UNC, and they’re scared of the narrative, Poles may as well resign immediately. We cannot have people scared to fail. The Beara should be so confident in their selection that theyre willing to overlook that.

I agree, but this is so much easier said than done. People make high level decisions based simply on a narrative all the time. 

I think Poles is gonna play it safe and take Caleb #1 though. 

[Chisoxfn]

11 minutes ago, Flash Tizzle said:

If all their resources - scouts, analytics, etc. come up with Maye as the #1 pick - he should be selected. If he is overlooked because Mitch also played at UNC, and they’re scared of the narrative, Poles may as well resign immediately. We cannot have people scared to fail. The Beara should be so confident in their selection that theyre willing to overlook that.

Mitch also played under a completely different offensive coach. Unless I'm mistaken - Mack Brown wasn't coaching UNC when Trubisky was there. I also believe Maye was the #1 recruit target of Bama and he was headed to Bama unless Mack got back to sideline for UNC and was able to sway Maye to stick to his hurts (his brother played basketball for UNC and his dad I believe was a QB for UNC - but maybe he played QB for another program).  

[Quin]

I think the Bears should avoid Caleb Williams due to Matt Leinart and Mark Sanchez

[LittleHurtCG]

10 minutes ago, Quin said:

I think the Bears should avoid Caleb Williams due to Matt Leinart and Mark Sanchez

Bears didnt draft either of those guys. Chicago sports media gonna have a field day if Poles trades down and takes Maye. 

[Quin]

25 minutes ago, LittleHurtCG said:

Bears didnt draft either of those guys. Chicago sports media gonna have a field day if Poles trades down and takes Maye. 

Yes, but it is also the same stupid logic.

You ever see Mitch do this? 

I think if you take either at #1, take Williams. But if the Commanders offer a dump truck and the Bears grade the two of them the same (or if they grade Caleb at 90/100 and Maye at 89/100), take the bag and Maye.

[Quin]

It's like how every soft-tossing, late-draft pick from an obscure college the White Sox take is the next Buehrle

[Balta1701]

42 minutes ago, Quin said:

Yes, but it is also the same stupid logic.

You ever see Mitch do this? 

I think if you take either at #1, take Williams. But if the Commanders offer a dump truck and the Bears grade the two of them the same (or if they grade Caleb at 90/100 and Maye at 89/100), take the bag and Maye.

My worry with Maye is that they convince themselves that they're looking at the next version of Josh Allen and then it turns out that the Allen package is truly freakish and other QBs just can't match it. 

[Chisoxfn]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

My worry with Maye is that they convince themselves that they're looking at the next version of Josh Allen and then it turns out that the Allen package is truly freakish and other QBs just can't match it. 

I think a bit more to the Herbert comp.  Stud talent who didn't have a great all around team - clearly limited his production (vs. talent) - but once Herbert got to NFL and had real talent - he was everything everyone thought he would be and than some.  Does Drake Maye do same thing?  

If anything - we know he hasn't benefited from having just elite talent everywhere (ala Justin Fields).  I also don't think Caleb Williams benefited from having massive talent around him in '23 (but he did have pretty good talent in '22).  

Allen is even more unique - total physical stud - but he was playing totally non-existent competition most of his career. So while he didn't have a ton of talent - he also played plenty of lousy teams too.  Maye wasn't in the SEC but he played plenty of decent schools and programs.