December 15, 20232 yr 1 minute ago, Bob Sacamano said: Pitching is still a long term need? Edit: also might be better than what other teams are offering? Hmmm… YOU CAN NEVER HAVE TOO MUCH PITCHING. EXCEPT THE 2006 WHITE SOX...well, minus the bullpen.
December 15, 20232 yr 4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: YOU CAN NEVER HAVE TOO MUCH PITCHING. EXCEPT THE 2006 WHITE SOX...well, minus the bullpen. What?
December 15, 20232 yr 8 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said: What? Everyone is complaining about the Braves' return...which is largely starting pitching driven, along with a utility player in Grissom. For those who watched the 1999-2001 and 2017-19 waves of pitching disappear...the White Sox are nowhere close to having enough pitching to compete in the future. NOT EVEN CLOSE
December 15, 20232 yr 12 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said: What? Contreras Garcia Buehrle Garland Javy McCarthy
December 15, 20232 yr 49 minutes ago, fathom said: Wittenmyer was on a podcast with Kaplan and said the Sox asking price is absolutely ridiculous for Cease. This is likely coming from the Reds point of view. As it should be. Can always lower your price later.
December 15, 20232 yr 4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Everyone is complaining about the Braves' return...which is largely starting pitching driven, along with a utility player in Grissom. For those who watched the 1999-2001 and 2017-19 waves of pitching disappear...the White Sox are nowhere close to having enough pitching to compete in the future. NOT EVEN CLOSE We obtained alot of pitching that was relatively well thought of at the time in Nastrini, Eder and Bush and now signed Fedde and traded for 2 pitchers from ATL. They also presumably spent good money to lure Bannister here to develop our pitchers and we have a potential ace in the pipeline that probably isn't super far away from the majors. So let Bannister work. If we have blow our wad on elite prospect pitching in order to get good pitching, WTF is Bannister for? What value is he adding? We now need to address positional needs. We do not need to obtain 7th and 8th pitchers BEFORE meaningfully addressing positional needs. Savages come first and no Grissom is not a savage. Edited December 15, 20232 yr by SoCalChiSox
December 15, 20232 yr 3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Everyone is complaining about the Braves' return...which is largely starting pitching driven, along with a utility player in Grissom. For those who watched the 1999-2001 and 2017-19 waves of pitching disappear...the White Sox are nowhere close to having enough pitching to compete in the future. NOT EVEN CLOSE I’m certainly not complaining about a Braves return. Can’t have too many arms. Especially with this team.
December 15, 20232 yr 1 minute ago, SoCalChiSox said: We obtained alot of pitching that was relatively well thought of at the time in Nastrini, Eder and Bush and now signed Fedde and traded for 2 pitchers from ATL. We now need to address positional needs. We do not need to obtain 7th and 8th pitchers BEFORE meaningfully addressing positional needs. Savages come first and no Grissom is not a savage. “A lot” 3 arms who were not that great last year lol Soroka also has 1 year of control so non-factor long term. Edited December 15, 20232 yr by Bob Sacamano
December 15, 20232 yr 3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Contreras Garcia Buehrle Garland Javy McCarthy 2006 pitching staff is why we didn’t make the playoffs… they were terrible
December 15, 20232 yr 4 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said: 2006 pitching staff is why we didn’t make the playoffs… they were terrible So was Jenks, the entire offense second half and CF defense with Mackowiak. Edited December 15, 20232 yr by caulfield12
December 15, 20232 yr 4 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said: “A lot” 3 arms who were not that great last year lol Soroka also has 1 year of control so non-factor long term. Shuster isn't much to write home about either.
December 15, 20232 yr 1 hour ago, fathom said: Wittenmyer was on a podcast with Kaplan and said the Sox asking price is absolutely ridiculous for Cease. This is likely coming from the Reds point of view. We saw what the asking price was from Reds according to Levine
December 15, 20232 yr 16 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: So was Jenks, the entire offense second half and CF defense with Mackowiak. I agree there is a decent argument that they make the playoffs if Ozzie would have just kept Anderson in CF all season.
December 15, 20232 yr Author The SP market really heated up today as predicted. With Tyler Glasnow off the board, these are the SP with TOR potential available: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (9/$225) Blake Snell (7/$200M) Jordan Montgomery (6/$150M) Dylan Cease (2/$20M) For teams with less means or willingness to take on long-term risk, middle of the rotation starters available include: Shota Imanaga (5/$85M) Lucas Giolito (2/$44M) Marcus Stroman (2/$44M) Michael Wacha (3/$36M) Shane Bieber (1/$12M) After that you’re looking at a mix of lower ceiling guys, wild cards, scrap heap signings, and players with off the field baggage. For instance, Mike Clevinger is the top pitcher on both MLBTR & Fangraphs’ top FA lists not mentioned above. Things worth pointing out. That contract projection for Yamamoto is likely light and 10/$300M is very possible. Snell greatly outproduced his peripherals last year and has only made 28+ starts once in the past five years. Montgomery has performed well in recent years but with below average stuff and K rate. The MOR guys all have warts hence why their prices are expected to be much lower. Given the amount of teams desperate for quality SP, it’s not hard to see why a SP like Cease who ranks 1st in starts made, 4th in K rate, 5th in Stuff+, and 8th in fWAR from 2021 to 2023 would be incredibly high demand. Two points of reference on Dylan’s potential value. Free agent wise, his best comp would be Aaron Nola, who got a 7/$175M deal in free agency. Yes, Nola has the lengthier track record, but both are coming off somewhat similar 2023 seasons after monster 2022 seasons. Regardless, I think this would be a fair expectation for Cease. However, for surplus valuation purposes, on a two year deal in this market, I think he’d get $75M to $80M. Given projected earnings of $20M to $25M over the next two seasons, we’re talking about $50M to $60M in expected surplus value. Trade wise, Glasnow is the best comp and he just went for what I’d consider a 50 FV pitching prospect plus a lesser OF prospect. Based on an old Fangraphs assessment of prospect value, a 50 FV pitching prospect would be expected to provide roughly $20 in value over the life of their control period. Looking at Glasnow, I think an optimistic projection would be ~4 wins next year, which would put his expected surplus value at ~$15M. However, Glasnow has truly elite stuff and offers a team like the Dodgers even more value because they can more easily manage his innings until the playoffs. Add in the extension, and you can see why he commanded the package that he did. So what does this mean for a potential Cease trade? Given his stuff, durability, control, & cost, I would expect him to be valued at the higher end of the range or ~$60M in expected surplus value. Conceptually, I believe that means we should expect one 55 FV prospect, one 50 FV prospect, and one 45 FV prospect or alternatively three 50 FV type prospects of varying degrees. Packages I could see based on this analysis include: Orioles: Kjerstad, Ortiz, & Horvath Dodgers: Busch, Sheehan, & Pages Braves: AJ S-S, Waldrep, & Grissom A fourth lesser prospect would be possible in each trade, but I ultimately expect three potentially impactful pieces coming back regardless of trade partner with the quality of the third piece dictated by the headliner. TLDR - Cease should get us an absolute haul and it’s only a matter of time. Edited December 15, 20232 yr by Chicago White Sox
December 15, 20232 yr Author Also, you know you have a problem when it’s 3am and all you can think about is Dylan Cease trade packages.
December 15, 20232 yr Author @baseball_gal_aly - I see you lurking! Let’s hear your pessimistic Cease take after the Glasnow trade.
December 15, 20232 yr 24 minutes ago, bmags said: Vaughn Grissom is not a utility player. On the Braves he is…
December 15, 20232 yr 15 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: On the Braves he is… I don’t want to trade for all of these utility players on the orioles than either.
December 15, 20232 yr Author I’d love to see people rank these three trade proposals: Orioles: Kjerstad, Ortiz, & Horvath Dodgers: Busch, Sheehan, & Pages Braves: AJ S-S, Waldrep, & Grissom Personally, I’d rank them in the listed order, but all three are deals I’d be willing to accept (ideally with some lesser 4th piece included). Meanwhile, BBTV would rank the Dodgers package as the highest ($66M in SV), followed by the Braves package ($56M), and then the Orioles in a distant third ($32M). BBTV has Kjerstad at only $16M in value as I’d personally rank him as a low-end 55 FV guy and put his expected value closer to $40M. Regardless, it’s a good reminder that BBTV is a fun tool, but its player valuations are highly suspect and never assume a trade will or will not work based on what it spits out.
December 15, 20232 yr Author 1 hour ago, bmags said: Vaughn Grissom is not a utility player. Where is the utility player stuff coming from? I personally think the bat plays as an everyday guy in the infield, but it just comes down to his defense. If he can’t get better with the glove at 2B, he probably ends up being a super utility guy who is rotated around several spots including LF. Right now, I don’t see enough power to be an everyday LF, although he likely has more than our Benintendi…lol.
December 15, 20232 yr Author Two nice things about Grissom are he’s young (turns 23 in Jan) and has already displayed some success in the majors. While he would lack the “savage” ceiling of Kjerstad or Busch and is not left-handed, he could easily be our third best hitter next year behind Robert & Eloy. Just got to be sure you can iron out his defensive flaws if you make him a central piece to a Cease trade.
December 15, 20232 yr Author A couple nuggets on Cease in Rosenthal’s latest article this morning: Quote The White Sox are talking to clubs about Cease, but still seem inclined to wait until after Yoshinobu and company sign, believing the urgency of teams that strike out on those pitchers will only increase. Cease, who is under club control for two more seasons, remains an obvious target for the Reds and Orioles, who are not involved with the top free agents. But he also is a possibility for other teams monitoring the trade market, a group that includes the Yankees, Giants, Braves and Rangers.
December 15, 20232 yr 40 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: I’d love to see people rank these three trade proposals: Orioles: Kjerstad, Ortiz, & Horvath Dodgers: Busch, Sheehan, & Pages Braves: AJ S-S, Waldrep, & Grissom Personally, I’d rank them in the listed order, but all three are deals I’d be willing to accept (ideally with some lesser 4th piece included). Meanwhile, BBTV would rank the Dodgers package as the highest ($66M in SV), followed by the Braves package ($56M), and then the Orioles in a distant third ($32M). BBTV has Kjerstad at only $16M in value as I’d personally rank him as a low-end 55 FV guy and put his expected value closer to $40M. Regardless, it’s a good reminder that BBTV is a fun tool, but its player valuations are highly suspect and never assume a trade will or will not work based on what it spits out. Exactly the order you have it. With a big gap between each of the offers Edited December 15, 20232 yr by Squirmin' for Yermin
December 15, 20232 yr 43 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: I’d love to see people rank these three trade proposals: Orioles: Kjerstad, Ortiz, & Horvath Dodgers: Busch, Sheehan, & Pages Braves: AJ S-S, Waldrep, & Grissom Personally, I’d rank them in the listed order, but all three are deals I’d be willing to accept (ideally with some lesser 4th piece included). Meanwhile, BBTV would rank the Dodgers package as the highest ($66M in SV), followed by the Braves package ($56M), and then the Orioles in a distant third ($32M). BBTV has Kjerstad at only $16M in value as I’d personally rank him as a low-end 55 FV guy and put his expected value closer to $40M. Regardless, it’s a good reminder that BBTV is a fun tool, but its player valuations are highly suspect and never assume a trade will or will not work based on what it spits out. Probably the way you list it but that doesn't mean I don't like the Braves offer.
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