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Sox expected to improve to 9th best defense, Guardians 1st, Cubs 2nd and Twins just ahead of Sox,


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https://www.mlb.com/news/best-projected-mlb-team-defenses-2024
 

This is easily our favorite projection, because Chicago was straight up bad with the glove last year – ranked last in MLB, in fact – to the point that new GM Chris Getz said he was having difficulty convincing free-agent pitchers to sign with the team for fear of playing in front of that defense. We figured he’d improve the gloves, and he has, but we thought it might be “poor, but better.” Instead, it might actually be good?

If it is, it’s because the returning Luis Robert Jr. is an excellent defender, and new middle infielders Nicky Lopez and Paul DeJong always play strong defense, even if the bats might lag. Max Stassi didn’t play in 2023 for personal reasons, but he had for years been an excellent framer. There are still weak spots here – notably Andrew Benintendi in left and Andrew Vaughn at first – but as we said above, up-the-middle fielding is more valuable than corner fielding. Less time in the field given to Oscar Colás and Gavin Sheets should help, and veterans who had seen better days than they showed in 2023 like Tim Anderson and Yasmani Grandal have departed. It's a different roster now.

The White Sox don’t have to be, and won’t be, baseball’s best defensive team. They might be the most improved, though.

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Does not compute.

FanGraphs 2024 Fielding Projections:

(Cumulative Team Fielding Rating)

  1. 34.9 Cleveland
  2. 27.9 Texas
  3. 23.0 New York A. L.
  4. 22.0 Toronto
  5. 19.7 Arizona
  6. 18.7 Baltimore
  7. 17.3 San Diego
  8. 16.8 Chicago N. L.
  9. 16.0 Milwaukee
  10. 15.7 New York N. L.
  11. 14.6 Minnesota
  12. 11.6 San Francisco
  13. 10.1 Colorado
  14. 9.2 Atlanta
  15. 6.8 Seattle
  16. 4.2 Chicago A. L.
  17. 1.2 Tampa Bay
  18. -0.4 Houston
  19. -1.3 Pittsburgh
  20. -2.5 Philadelphia
  21. -3.0 Detroit
  22. -5.1 Los Angeles N. L.
  23. -6.9 Boston
  24. -7.3 Saint Louis
  25. -10.0 Miami
  26. -12.8 Kansas City
  27. -14.8 Cincinnati
  28. -18.1 Washington
  29. -19.3 Oakland
  30. -33.1 Los Angeles A. L.
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35 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Does not compute.

FanGraphs 2024 Fielding Projections:

(Cumulative Team Fielding Rating)

  1. 34.9 Cleveland
  2. 27.9 Texas
  3. 23.0 New York A. L.
  4. 22.0 Toronto
  5. 19.7 Arizona
  6. 18.7 Baltimore
  7. 17.3 San Diego
  8. 16.8 Chicago N. L.
  9. 16.0 Milwaukee
  10. 15.7 New York N. L.
  11. 14.6 Minnesota
  12. 11.6 San Francisco
  13. 10.1 Colorado
  14. 9.2 Atlanta
  15. 6.8 Seattle
  16. 4.2 Chicago A. L.
  17. 1.2 Tampa Bay
  18. -0.4 Houston
  19. -1.3 Pittsburgh
  20. -2.5 Philadelphia
  21. -3.0 Detroit
  22. -5.1 Los Angeles N. L.
  23. -6.9 Boston
  24. -7.3 Saint Louis
  25. -10.0 Miami
  26. -12.8 Kansas City
  27. -14.8 Cincinnati
  28. -18.1 Washington
  29. -19.3 Oakland
  30. -33.1 Los Angeles A. L.

Do we really trust defensive metrics yet? While they sometimes seem to get the larger picture right, the numbers seem so inconsistent. A player will be in like the 3rd percentile for OAA one year and then in the 99th percentile the next year...

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1 hour ago, KipWellsFan said:

Do we really trust defensive metrics yet? While they sometimes seem to get the larger picture right, the numbers seem so inconsistent. A player will be in like the 3rd percentile for OAA one year and then in the 99th percentile the next year...

I think it's more believable / useful as a team stat than as an individual stat.

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1 hour ago, KipWellsFan said:

Do we really trust defensive metrics yet? While they sometimes seem to get the larger picture right, the numbers seem so inconsistent. A player will be in like the 3rd percentile for OAA one year and then in the 99th percentile the next year...

I trust them more than media, FO and Manager proclamations / eyeball tests. 

There is a wider difference between systems for defensive metrics vs. hitting or pitching. Proprietary systems clubs use internally are ahead of what fans can access.

All that said, mid level defense would be an improvement over last year, and that’s likely where they land.

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1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

I trust them more than media, FO and Manager proclamations / eyeball tests. 

There is a wider difference between systems for defensive metrics vs. hitting or pitching. Proprietary systems clubs use internally are ahead of what fans can access.

All that said, mid level defense would be an improvement over last year, and that’s likely where they land.

I'd make a reasoned guess that in aggregate it's easier to project than at the individual level. The Sox will probably have an above average defense, cool. But defense is downstream of pitching and our pitching is probably going to suck. Hard to make a lot of plays when the ball is rifling over your head out of the ballpark or rattling into the corner. 

It's ironic the Sox finally recognize defense now that the pitching and hitting are awful enough for it to make little difference. 

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