12 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

What is crazy about thinking roch is a 240-250 big league hitter?

40 hit would be below-average which isn't even usually a big league regular. Being a .240 hitter is generally seen as average (50) and the landscape now is even more skewed.

5 minutes ago, oldsox said:

Where is Veras listed? First round?

Not even close. Ranked 498 at BA (probably moving up after the Combine showing) and 236 at Over-Slot. This is a raw tooled up guy that's probably a corner OF with hit tool concerns. Someone to dream on though. It's a Padres draft pick if I've ever seen one.

Edited Saturday at 04:46 PM2 days by DirtySox

2 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

Not even close. Ranked 498 at BA (probably moving up after the Combine showing) and 236 at Over-Slot. This is a raw tooled up guy that's probably a corner OF, with hit tool concerns. Someone to dream on though. It's a Padres draft pick if I've ever seen one.

I believe he's 198 at Pipeline

2 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

40 hit would be below-average which isn't even usually a big league regular. Being a .240 hitter is generally seen as average (50) and the landscape now is even more skewed.

Not sure i agree with this at all. A 40 mlb hit is a 240ish hitter. I guess if you want to move it down 10 points because of the league shift towards lower averages I could buy that.

Has grade inflation infiltrated the world of prospects too now?!?

Edited Saturday at 04:49 PM2 days by Look at Ray Ray Run

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Not sure i agree with this at all. A 40 mlb hit is a 240ish hitter. I guess if you want to move it down 10 points because of the league shift towards lower averages I could buy that.

There's nothing for you to agree or disagree with. The average batting average in MLB right now is .239. It's just math.

32 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

There's nothing for you to agree or disagree with. The average batting average in MLB right now is .239. It's just math.

Thats actually not at all how the math works in these cases. For one, the mark you cite is a random snapshot of June that is the lowest number in 50+ years. Offense is historically lower early on in the year than it is later.

Prospect grades are normalized which allows you to compare players across periods. You would adjust expected outcomes to the environment once a player reaches thay point, but the general premise of being a 240-250 hitter as a 45 is a reasonable benchmark. League average in general is down about 10 points 10 year period over 10 year perood, but that doesn't mean it'll be down 10 points in Roch time. The below is 12 years old but its one of the baselines I built my scales.

FanGraphs Baseball

Scouting Explained: The 20-80 Scouting Scale

Scouting Explained: Introduction, Hitting Pt 1 Pt 2 Pt 3 Pt 4 Pt 5 Pt 6 When I started here just last month, I promised I would write a comprehensive series of articles explaining every part of the 20

32 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

There's nothing for you to agree or disagree with. The average batting average in MLB right now is .239. It's just math.

Edited Saturday at 05:29 PM1 day by Look at Ray Ray Run

13 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Thats actually not at all how the math works in these cases. For one, the mark you cite is a random snapshot of June that is the lowest number in 50+ years. Offense is historically lower early on in the year than it is later.

Prospect grades are normalized which allows you to compare players across periods. You would adjust expected outcomes to the environment once a player reaches thay point, but the general premise of being a 240-250 hitter as a 45 is a reasonable benchmark. League average in general is down about 10 points 10 year period over 10 year perood, but that doesn't mean it'll be down 10 points in Roch time. The below is 12 years old but its one of the baselines I built my scales.

FanGraphs Baseball

Scouting Explained: The 20-80 Scouting Scale

Scouting Explained: Introduction, Hitting Pt 1 Pt 2 Pt 3 Pt 4 Pt 5 Pt 6 When I started here just last month, I promised I would write a comprehensive series of articles explaining every part of the 20

Ok fair. I don't personally give a s%*# about Roch Cholowsky's batting average. Also don't feel like debating. We'll find out in a couple weeks and I'll analyze then.

I’m not sure AVG is the most accurate way to assign a hit tool to begin with. Theres too many other variables.

I still lean towards Roch, but can talk myself into any of the top 3, just gonna wait and see who they go with.

Edited Saturday at 06:15 PM1 day by Lukakke Appling

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

What is crazy about thinking roch is a 240-250 big league hitter?

Lowest I’ve seen projected by draft publications was .265

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Pal, roch has no where near elite bat to ball skills and he absolutely doesnt have 4+ tools.

Roch Is a 40 run, 40 hit, 50 power, 65 field, 60 arm for me. The guy just hit 320 in the big 10. It's just not very impressive for a 1-1.

Yeah, clearly you can’t be rational on this subject. A 40 hit grade for someone with Roch’s contact, hard hit, & barrel rates is simply laughable. A 50 grade on power is also a joke given his HR output, his 90th percentile & max EVs, and what every single talent evaluator has said about the kid. I get his speed isn’t great but a 40 grade feels very intentional to further devalue the prospect. It’s totally fine if you prefer Lackey, but these Roch takes are absolute garbage.

And you can’t even comment on Lackey’s home/road splits…lol. Again, may or may not be a big deal, but something of interest that I figured you’d have some take on.

50 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Yeah, clearly you can’t be rational on this subject. A 40 hit grade for someone with Roch’s contact, hard hit, & barrel rates is simply laughable. A 50 grade on power is also a joke given his HR output, his 90th percentile & max EVs, and what every single talent evaluator has said about the kid. I get his speed isn’t great but a 40 grade feels very intentional to further devalue the prospect. It’s totally fine if you prefer Lackey, but these Roch takes are absolute garbage.

And you can’t even comment on Lackey’s home/road splits…lol. Again, may or may not be a big deal, but something of interest that I figured you’d have some take on.

Both GT and UCLA are comically short fields

27 minutes ago, fathom said:

Both GT and UCLA are comically short fields

Did Roch have extreme home-road splits as well then?

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Did Roch have extreme home-road splits as well then?

No idea, just remember watching a game at UCLA and it was like 315 to right field

4 hours ago, Lukakke Appling said:

I’m not sure AVG is the most accurate way to assign a hit tool to begin with. Theres too many other variables.

I still lean towards Roch, but can talk myself into any of the top 3, just gonna wait and see who they go with.

I'll be happy with any of the top 3 too. I don't like taking a catcher though. We got teel for the next few years. I kind of lean to Emerson for the higher ceiling.

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Yeah, clearly you can’t be rational on this subject. A 40 hit grade for someone with Roch’s contact, hard hit, & barrel rates is simply laughable. A 50 grade on power is also a joke given his HR output, his 90th percentile & max EVs, and what every single talent evaluator has said about the kid. I get his speed isn’t great but a 40 grade feels very intentional to further devalue the prospect. It’s totally fine if you prefer Lackey, but these Roch takes are absolute garbage.

And you can’t even comment on Lackey’s home/road splits…lol. Again, may or may not be a big deal, but something of interest that I figured you’d have some take on.

I just think Lackey is clearly the better prospect. I don't think roch is a bad prospect obviously. The guy I graded is an above average regular but far from a star. Which is how I view roch. He just had a stagnate season (id argue a slightly regressive one). That is legit terrifying in my opinion.

Edited Saturday at 11:05 PM1 day by Look at Ray Ray Run

5 hours ago, Lukakke Appling said:

I’m not sure AVG is the most accurate way to assign a hit tool to begin with. Theres too many other variables.

I still lean towards Roch, but can talk myself into any of the top 3, just gonna wait and see who they go with.

Not sure what this means, the hit tools barometer has always been expected batting average. It's not a direct 1-1 because some guys can have elite bat to ball but such a low power grade that they can't get to it (same for elite power getting more out of a subpar hit tool) but in general that's the evaluation scale.

Edited Saturday at 11:09 PM1 day by Look at Ray Ray Run

7 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Not sure what this means, the hit tools barometer has always been expected batting average. It's not a direct 1-1 because some guys can have elite bat to ball but such a low power grade that they can't get to it (same for elite power getting more out of a subpar hit tool) but in general that's the evaluation scale.

I can see average being something where you could say, “guys with this hit tool have a median average of (blah).” So that I get. I’m more saying you can’t reliably say just because a player has X average they have X hit tool.

13 hours ago, fathom said:

Both GT and UCLA are comically short fields

Had no idea.

Here's mock draft 5.0 from Baseball America: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2026-mlb-mock-draft-5-0-updated-first-round-picks-after-the-college-world-series-draft-combine/

Couple things from here.

Carlos goes with Roch Cholowsky but noted that it's the closest he's ever come to putting Grady Emerson but couldn't pull the trigger. Said industry sources think it's down to Cholowsky or Emerson rather than Lackey.

He also mocked Landon Thome to the Pirates at #34 but said that he wouldn't be surprised if this pick is traded before the draft.

I’m switching to team Emerson.  From what I can tell, he’s got the elite hit potential.  A defensive floor doesn’t do much for me anyway.

8 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

I’m switching to team Emerson.  From what I can tell, he’s got the elite hit potential.  A defensive floor doesn’t do much for me anyway.

Cholowsky also has hit/power combo and is a plus defender. If Emerson's hit tool is actually a 55 and not a 65-70, he's just not a star.

33 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Cholowsky also has hit/power combo and is a plus defender. If Emerson's hit tool is actually a 55 and not a 65-70, he's just not a star.

I believe it will be. I think his hit tool is that good.

God I want the White Sox to get that pick from the Pirates. Just don't know how. Sharing the top 10 picks from the BA mock that Jimmy linked.

1. White Sox — Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA

Bonus Pool: $17,592,100

Slot Value: $11,350,600

We’ve had Cholowsky as the pick for the White Sox in every iteration of our 2026 mock. In today’s update, I came as close as I ever have to putting Grady Emerson’s name here instead. Ultimately, I still think Cholowsky is most likely, so I’m not going to flip the pick just to shake things up.

I’ve talked with more sources recently who think it’s more likely to be one of Cholowsky or Emerson rather than Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey. My best guess at throwing out odds would be something like Cholowsky at 60%, Emerson at 30%, Vahn Lackey at 9% and Jacob Lombard/the field at 1% . Even putting numbers on this probably overstates the confidence I have, though.

2. Rays — Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth Christian HS, North Richland Hills, Texas

Bonus Pool: $19,009,300

Slot Value: $10,507,000

Like with the first pick, I think this is most likely to be Cholowsky or Emerson—whoever the White Sox don’t take. If Tampa had their choice of the top two players in the class, I’m not sure who they would prefer, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was Emerson. Lackey’s name is mentioned here plenty, as well, and there’s some buzz that he might even be their preferred target if the White Sox take Cholowsky, but I’ll stick with Emerson for now.

3. Twins — Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech

Bonus Pool: $16,929,600

Slot Value: $9,740,100

Perhaps the Twins would like to get one of the top two shortstops at this pick, but in this mock, that isn’t happening. If the draft unfolds as it does here, I would expect the Twins to take a college player, either Lackey—who feels the most likely as the third member of a clear top three in this class—or the top pitcher on the board, UC Santa Barbara righthander Jackson Flora.

4. Giants — Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep HS, Miami

Bonus Pool: $17,350,600

Slot Value: $8,988,400

I’ve continued to hear bat, bat, bat for the Giants. If that’s the case, they are probably hoping Jackson Flora goes in front of them so they can get a shot at one of the top three players in the class. That doesn’t seem likely to happen, though, so I’d expect San Francisco to be picking between Jacob Lombard and Eric Booth Jr.

Booth seems to have gained some steam after the combine and might be more in play for this pick than I expected several weeks ago. The Giants feel less likely to me to take a model-oriented college hitter on a deal at this pick, but I suppose we can’t rule that out entirely.

5. Pirates — Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

Bonus Pool: $19,130,700

Slot Value: $8,336,500

Not much has come out of Pirates camp in recent weeks. They’ve gone fairly quiet, so my safest projection for them at this stage is unchanged and remains Flora, who is the clear top pitcher in the class.

Don’t be surprised if things go sideways here, though. This could be the first realistic landing spot for Justin Lebron, for example. I don’t think he’s the most likely option, but it’s also hard to rule out the rumor entirely when you see how the Pirates have drafted in recent years. Both Jacob Lombard and Eric Booth Jr. should be in play for this pick, though I’m not sure which of the two prep hitters they would prefer.

6. Royals — Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech

Bonus Pool: $15,954,000

Slot Value: $7,746,100

I wouldn’t have expected a quick-moving college player for the Royals in this year’s draft, but it sounds like the current poor play of the major league team could become a real factor in who gets picked here. Burress would make sense if the organization feels the need to add a fast-mover, and other college bats like Justin Lebron or AJ Gracia could be fits, as well.

It’s no real secret that the Kansas City scouting department likes both Jacob Lombard—if he makes it here—and Gio Rojas quite a bit. Eric Booth Jr. also should fit in this range on talent.

7. Orioles — Eric Booth Jr., OF, Oak Grove HS, Hattiesburg, Miss.

Bonus Pool: $13,114,000

Slot Value: $7,327,200

Even more than it did a few weeks ago, it feels unlikely that Booth makes it beyond this pick. Booth, Lombard and Burress are the names I hear most often with the Orioles, though there’s a large group of college hitters who could make sense, as well, including AJ Gracia, Chris Hacopian, Derek Curiel, Justin Lebron, Tyler Bell and Ryder Helfrick.

8. Athletics — Tyler Bell, SS, Kentucky

Bonus Pool: $13,840,300

Slot Value: $6,982,600

I’d expect the same group of college hitters that were just mentioned for the Orioles to be in play here for the Athletics, but I also feel like there could still be some organizational desire for a pitcher. Cameron Flukey and Liam Peterson seem like the most likely college options at this spot. I don’t hear the same about the top high school pitcher, Gio Rojas, who could fit on either side of this pick with the Royals or Braves. Bell had a lot of late helium at the end of the college season, but how teams view his medical situation could complicate things. His profile is a safe and reliable one, and he also had some impressive combine interviews.

9. Braves — Gio Rojas, LHP, Stoneman Douglas HS, Parkland, Fla.

Bonus Pool: $15,870,800

Slot Value: $6,675,300

This is the first time we’ve mocked Rojas to the Braves, but that’s mostly because we’ve tended to have him going off the board earlier to the Royals. With more whispers of a college player at that pick, Rojas’ earliest exit point might be No. 9 to Atlanta—a team that is never shy with high school pitchers. This one is starting to feel like Rojas or a college hitter like Drew Burress, Tyler Bell, Ryder Helfrick, Justin Lebron, Chris Hacopian or AJ Gracia potentially.

10. Rockies — Derek Curiel, OF, LSU

Bonus Pool: $15,557,600

Slot Value: $6,393,100

Lately, I’ve heard college, college and more college with the Rockies. That seems like it would indicate one of the bats in that big group mentioned above, but Curiel is a player who I’ve heard them linked to recently. It’s hard to rule out Ryder Helfrick for this pick, and Colorado could be one of the teams considering Cameron Flukey, too. As far as high school names go, Jared Grindlinger is the one name I’ve heard mentioned with the Rockies in recent days.

@Y2Jimmy0 I saw you post the Draftkings odds for 1st overall pick in the draft, but I for the life of me can't find it. Do you still see it available on the App? Wouldn't mind sprinkling some money on Emerson at +500 if it hasn't shifted.

1 hour ago, DirtySox said:

@Y2Jimmy0 I saw you post the Draftkings odds for 1st overall pick in the draft, but I for the life of me can't find it. Do you still see it available on the App? Wouldn't mind sprinkling some money on Emerson at +500 if it hasn't shifted.

That's the first thing I did haha. It's there. It's under Futures. He's +400 now though.