The decline of the curveball

[Falstaff]

The curveball is disappearing amid MLB's velocity surge | AP News

Good read, I think you will find it interesting.

[kitekrazy]

Which is sad.   Jenks has a good one and so did Ryan.....both very hard throwers

[GreenSox]

Gavin Floyd had a snazzy curveball.

Seems to be that they are a bit risky:  too easy to hang and too easy to hit when hung. 

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, GreenSox said:

Gavin Floyd had a snazzy curveball.

Seems to be that they are a bit risky:  too easy to hang and too easy to hit when hung. 

Also very easy for the ump to miss the strike call.

[Stinky Stanky]

52 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Also very easy for the ump to miss the strike call.

Which manager (Red Sox) would change his rotation if a curve baller was set for the day certain umpires were working home plate?

[greg775]

Best curveball in Chicago history: Ken Holtzman of the Cubs.

Best Sox curveball in history: Prolly Mark B or Bobby. Maybe Gary Peters or LaMarr Hoyt.

[The Mighty Mite]

3 hours ago, greg775 said:

Best curveball in Chicago history: Ken Holtzman of the Cubs.

Best Sox curveball in history: Prolly Mark B or Bobby. Maybe Gary Peters or LaMarr Hoyt.

Billy Pierce had a great curve ball.

[Falstaff]

Don't forget to add Steve Stone to the great curve ball list, it got him a Cy Young.

Sandy Koufax's last year was 1966 so I never saw him pitch but he had an awesome curve ball. Pete Rose said he had no chance against Koufax, "how in the hell do you that curve ball?

 

Edited July 16 by Falstaff

[ptatc]

3 hours ago, Falstaff said:

Don't forget to add Steve Stone to the great curve ball list, it got him a Cy Young.

Sandy Koufax's last year was 1966 so I never saw him pitch but he had an awesome curve ball. Pete Rose said he had no chance against Koufax, "how in the hell do you that curve ball?

 

Blyleven had one of the best I've seen in person.

Edited July 16 by ptatc

[SoxAce]

I remember Lucas Giolito had an insane one in the minors with the Nationals. Then came here and obviously changed some things. 

[JoshPR]

I remember Wilson Alvarez curve was pretty good. Non Sox Barry Zito was insane and Aaron Sele. Just ask paulie

Edited July 16 by JoshPR

[Kyyle23]

I mean, wasn’t there a very loud contingent of baseball people within the last 20 years that were like “we need to stop teaching kids curveballs so young” and it got to the point that little leagues are banning it and high schools/colleges are really reducing usage?  Maybe we are seeing the whiplash effect of that, they are learning other pitches trying to stay away from the pitch they have been told will end up damaging your UCL

[champagne030]

I might be completely off base, but now that nobody cares about K's or AVG you can just sit on it (you can't sit on 98, especially if it spins).  If you don't get one, oh well.  I remember people sitting on Gooden's 12-6 hook.  They couldn't touch his high FB.

[Falstaff]

1 hour ago, Kyyle23 said:

I mean, wasn’t there a very loud contingent of baseball people within the last 20 years that were like “we need to stop teaching kids curveballs so young” and it got to the point that little leagues are banning it and high schools/colleges are really reducing usage?  Maybe we are seeing the whiplash effect of that, they are learning other pitches trying to stay away from the pitch they have been told will end up damaging your UCL

Excellent point.  You can add the screwball to that list that is also discouraged. The last White Sox pitcher I can think of was Hector Santiago.  Fernando Valenzuela was lethal with the screwball.

Steve Stone said that well thrown curveball is basically unhittable.

[Stinky Stanky]

3 hours ago, Falstaff said:

Excellent point.  You can add the screwball to that list that is also discouraged. The last White Sox pitcher I can think of was Hector Santiago.  Fernando Valenzuela was lethal with the screwball.

Steve Stone said that well thrown curveball is basically unhittable.

Santiago’s was eventually converted to a changeup.  But he was the last IIRC. Two seamer has a similar break. 

[T R U]

5 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

I mean, wasn’t there a very loud contingent of baseball people within the last 20 years that were like “we need to stop teaching kids curveballs so young” and it got to the point that little leagues are banning it and high schools/colleges are really reducing usage?  Maybe we are seeing the whiplash effect of that, they are learning other pitches trying to stay away from the pitch they have been told will end up damaging your UCL

I haven't seen any little league ban it, at least not the one im in. Its deadly in little league, these kids have no idea what to do and either swing and miss badly or knee buckle because they think its coming at them lol.

[Timmy U]

Grant Taylor, Wikelman Gonzalez, and Tanner McDougal all have plus curveballs in the Sox system. They use the curve as a wipeout pitch and none of them really throw it that much for strikes. I think there are still hard curves out there, but the slow, loopy curveball is a lot more rare cuz modern hitters have gotten better at looking for it.

[Sambuca]

22 hours ago, SoxAce said:

I remember Lucas Giolito had an insane one in the minors with the Nationals. Then came here and obviously changed some things. 

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1F3TGtKJc9/?mibextid=wwXIfr
 

Not sure if this video will work, but I was upset we never got this version of Giolito after he came up. 

[Dam8610]

Based on the data shown, it kind of looks like a cyclical trend? 2008 was at 8.3%, not far off from 8.1%. Maybe this is just the down part of the cycle?

[WookiesOnRitalin]

One of my favorite pitches of all time was a curve ball that painted the corner. I would watch righties just look on in dismay as a left just painted the outside corner. 

[JoshPR]

On 7/16/2025 at 5:05 PM, Stinky Stanky said:

Santiago’s was eventually converted to a changeup.  But he was the last IIRC. Two seamer has a similar break. 

Actually Santiago learned the screwball in winter league from Angel Miranda

[kitekrazy]

On 7/15/2025 at 6:14 PM, GreenSox said:

Gavin Floyd had a snazzy curveball.

Seems to be that they are a bit risky:  too easy to hang and too easy to hit when hung. 

 I would think the hanging slider would be easier.

[Jake]

On 7/16/2025 at 5:05 PM, Stinky Stanky said:

Santiago’s was eventually converted to a changeup.  But he was the last IIRC. Two seamer has a similar break. 

I'm not too sure what drove Santiago to change the way he described that pitch. But a lot of guys throwing changeups nowadays are essentially throwing screwballs. Hector gripped it like a circle changeup and threw it like one. I find that in youth ball, it isn't often taught the screwball way so a lot of fans don't realize this. But the best changeups are thrown with total wrist pronation, basically like you'd throw a curveball but with your hand facing the opposite direction (and usually gripped differently). This generates side/overspin, but of course due to the fact it's generally harder to pronate than supinate, it comes out harder and with less overspin than a curveball. Some guys can't really do it at all but they tend to have an easier time throwing sliders. Other guys who are natural at spinning the screwgie changeups often can't throw a slider very well. The "changeup" Devin Williams throws is very much an all-time great screwball.

As for why fewer curveballs, I think the biggest thing is that "tunneling" is the prevailing theory about pitch mixing nowadays. You want all your pitches to look the same not only during your throwing motion but as long as possible after release too. The idea is that they are all traveling down a common "tunnel" towards home plate until at some late stage they diverge due to different movements. The classic tunneling trio is the four-seam/sinker/cutter. These are all very similar out of hand but the cutter darts gloveside late, the sinker darts armside late, and the four seamer stays a bit straighter and will feel like it's rising relative to the other two. Sliders don't tunnel quite as well but the extra movement is a good tradeoff for a lot of pitchers. Same for changeups which diverge a little earlier (mostly due to the speed difference). Curveballs generally don't tunnel very well because the ball comes up out of the hand, making it look different from the heater and everything else almost immediately to a discerning hitter. 

One thing I haven't heard an explanation for yet is why it seems en vogue nowadays to attack opposite-handed hitters with curveballs — and not so much with sliders. As best as I can tell, for a long time there has been a reverse platoon split for curveballs (same-handed batters hit them better than oppo-handed batters which goes against conventional wisdom). But this is mostly isolated to early in the count and when the curveball is thrown outside to the oppo-handed hitters. So basically, especially early in counts oppo-handed batters have a hard time judging the backdoor curveball and take it for strikes. Later in counts, they are more aggressive and don't take those pitches and don't whiff on them either. Same-handed hitters have an easier time judging curveballs because they can't be back-doored and the break is so big and slow they have a chance to measure it in a way that is unlike the slider. 

[Stinky Stanky]

2 hours ago, Jake said:

I'm not too sure what drove Santiago to change the way he described that pitch. But a lot of guys throwing changeups nowadays are essentially throwing screwballs. Hector gripped it like a circle changeup and threw it like one. I find that in youth ball, it isn't often taught the screwball way so a lot of fans don't realize this. But the best changeups are thrown with total wrist pronation, basically like you'd throw a curveball but with your hand facing the opposite direction (and usually gripped differently). This generates side/overspin, but of course due to the fact it's generally harder to pronate than supinate, it comes out harder and with less overspin than a curveball. Some guys can't really do it at all but they tend to have an easier time throwing sliders. Other guys who are natural at spinning the screwgie changeups often can't throw a slider very well. The "changeup" Devin Williams throws is very much an all-time great screwball.

As for why fewer curveballs, I think the biggest thing is that "tunneling" is the prevailing theory about pitch mixing nowadays. You want all your pitches to look the same not only during your throwing motion but as long as possible after release too. The idea is that they are all traveling down a common "tunnel" towards home plate until at some late stage they diverge due to different movements. The classic tunneling trio is the four-seam/sinker/cutter. These are all very similar out of hand but the cutter darts gloveside late, the sinker darts armside late, and the four seamer stays a bit straighter and will feel like it's rising relative to the other two. Sliders don't tunnel quite as well but the extra movement is a good tradeoff for a lot of pitchers. Same for changeups which diverge a little earlier (mostly due to the speed difference). Curveballs generally don't tunnel very well because the ball comes up out of the hand, making it look different from the heater and everything else almost immediately to a discerning hitter. 

One thing I haven't heard an explanation for yet is why it seems en vogue nowadays to attack opposite-handed hitters with curveballs — and not so much with sliders. As best as I can tell, for a long time there has been a reverse platoon split for curveballs (same-handed batters hit them better than oppo-handed batters which goes against conventional wisdom). But this is mostly isolated to early in the count and when the curveball is thrown outside to the oppo-handed hitters. So basically, especially early in counts oppo-handed batters have a hard time judging the backdoor curveball and take it for strikes. Later in counts, they are more aggressive and don't take those pitches and don't whiff on them either. Same-handed hitters have an easier time judging curveballs because they can't be back-doored and the break is so big and slow they have a chance to measure it in a way that is unlike the slider. 

Damn fine post.  You ought to be an in-game analyst.  

[greg775]

1 hour ago, Stinky Stanky said:

Damn fine post.  You ought to be an in-game analyst.  

I had a nasty screwball as a kid through high school. It was funny to see that ball break the other way at the last second.