The Current Core

[Chicago White Sox]

Last night was one of the most enjoyable games of White Sox baseball I have witnessed in a long time.  Many of the young guys had stellar games and/or stellar moments.  This got me thinking about the young guys currently on the roster.  Right now, we have 12 players under the age of 26.  Of the players listed below, who do you see as part of the future core, what role do you see them playing, and what kind of performance do you expect out of them?

Position Players:

• Chase Meidroth (24.0): 325 PA | 9.8% BB % | 13.2% K % | .059 ISO | 84 wRC+ | 1.1 fWAR
• Miguel Vargas (25.7): 409 PA | 9.5% BB % | 17.1K % | .179 ISO | 98 wRC+ | 1.1 fWAR
• Lenyn Sosa (25.5): 319 PA | 2.8% BB % | 23.5% K % | .143 ISO | 92 wRC+ | 0.7 fWAR
• Kyle Teel (23.4): 101 PA | 13.9% BB % | 27.7% K % | .096 ISO | 122 wRC+ | 0.6 fWAR
• C. Montgomery (23.4): 58 PA | 10.3% BB % | 25.9% K % | .196 ISO | 129 wRC+ | 0.6 fWAR
• Edgar Quero (22.3): 224 PA | 9.8% BB % | 17.4% K % | .086 ISO | 98 wRC+ | 0.2 fWAR
• Brooks Baldwin (24.9): 182 PA | 5.5% BB % | 29.9% K % | .139 ISO | 71 wRC+ | -0.7 fWAR

Pitchers:

• Shane Smith (25.3): 86.2 IP | 8.41 K/9 | 3.84 BB/9 | 0.93 HR/9 | 4.29 xERA | 1.1 fWAR
• Grant Taylor (23.2): 18.1 IP | 11.29 K/9 | 2.95 BB/9 | 0.00 HR/9 | 2.08 xERA | 0.8 fWAR
• J. Cannon (25.0): 88.1 IP | 7.34 K/9 | 3.06 BB/9 | 1.43 HR/9 | 4.90 xERA | 0.7 fWAR
• Sean Burk (25.6): 101 IP | 7.57 K/9 | 4.19 BB/9 | 1.43 HR/9 | 5.23 xERA | 0.4 fWAR
• Mike Vasil (25.4): 64.0 IP | 6.61 K/9 | 4.78 BB/9 | 0.70 HR/9 | 4.32 xERA | 0.1 fWAR

Edited July 24 by Chicago White Sox

[2Deep]

Future Core:  Teel, Quero, Montgomery, Meidroth, Burke, Taylor, Cannon

Not so sure: Vargas, Sosa, Baldwin, Smith

I think Teel and Quero are going to be a problem for the league.  I expect these 2 to become the young face of the franchise.

 I absolutely love Sean Burke's stuff, he needs to keep working and harness control.  

[soxrwhite]

Quero,Teel, Cannon,Taylor....Yes

Sosa,(bad glove) Baldwin(utility), Miedroth...........probable

Burke,Vargas........questionable

Montgomery....incomplete sample size

I'll throw Elko in there as he has been up a couple of times.....Hopeful but doubtful

[hogan873]

Meidroth, Vargas, Teel, Montgomery, Quero, Smith, Cannon, Taylor, and Burke I see being part of the future core.  As 2Deep said, Teel and Quero will most likely be the face of the future and a killer catching combo.  At least one of them will need to learn 1B and/or play a lot of DH.  Meidroth will be a steady bat at the top of the lineup.  Not much power, but an ability to get on base and set the table.  Vargas is still young and has shown flashes of what he could be.  I think he'll be a good power bat in the middle of the lineup.  Montgomery has shut up a lot of the doubters, myself included, and could very well be another power bat.  If he sticks at 3B with Meidroth at SS, the left side of the infield will be set.  I think all four pitchers will be part of the core.  That's three starters and a potential closer...not a bad start to build a pitching core.

[Bob Sacamano]

They've been more fun to watch lately but still need a couple true power hitters. Maybe one of the guys already here will develop a bit more but still need some sluggers.

[Chicago White Sox]

I feel like Meidroth is going to be our starting SS until Carlson or Bonemer pushes for a job.  To me, he’s going to be a ~3 win player when it’s all said and done.  The defense at SS is better than expected and he has that “it” factor that won’t show up in defensive metrics.  Offensively he remains a work in process, but the reality is he has both elite plate discipline and elite bat to ball skills.  He needs to find a way to impact the baseball more, whether that be through further strength training or sacrificing some weak contact for strikes and more bites at the apple (which he did plenty of in the minors).  He’s also a smart baserunner as evident by his 11 steals so far despite lacking plus speed.  He’s unlikely to be a star given the lack of raw power but he should be a key contributor on a playoff caliber team.

[southsider2k5]

I am just thrilled that the improvement in this deal has been directly related to Getz finally having the stones to let the kids play more this year.  The worst stretches have been when they chose to let their free agent dumpster dives have run.  The kids are getting consistent playing time finally, and lo  and behold, the world didn't end.  Are their struggles, absolutely, but it isn't like they were replacing all stars.

I still don't see much in the way of long term starters outside of Colson and the Catchers when it come to position players, but that we all kind of knew.

[Chicago White Sox]

Vargas I am very much torn on.  His offensive results so far this year have been roughly league average, which reflects significant improvement and a sign that there is still plenty of room for growth.  The plate discipline figures overall are good and his power numbers are fairly solid as evident by a .179 ISO.  His biggest issue right now is a shitty batting average (.223) due to a very high popup rate and a little bit of bad batted ball luck.  I’m very much unclear on what’s causing him to get underneath the ball so frequently, but if he can make adjustments and get his popup rate to a more reasonable level he looks like a 110 to 120 wRC+ hitter to me.  The low end of that range would be at his current raw power / bat speed and the high end would be with further strength gains (which I think are possible given his frame).  For him to be an impactful player at 1B, he will need to find a way to get to the higher end of the wRC+ range.  Defensively I think he can eventually be plus at 1B so that will help some, but ultimately him being part of the long-term core will come down to additional improvements with the bat as league average production simply won’t cut if at 1B.  I’m giving him the rest of this year and 2026 before I make that call.

[Bob Sacamano]

13 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Vargas I am very much torn on.  His offensive results so far this year have been roughly league average, which reflects significant improvement and a sign that there is still plenty of room for growth.  The plate discipline figures overall are good and his power numbers are fairly solid as evident by a .179 ISO.  His biggest issue right now is a shitty batting average (.223) due to a very high popup rate and a little bit of bad batted ball luck.  I’m very much unclear on what’s causing him to get underneath the ball so frequently, but if he can make adjustments and get his popup rate to a more reasonable level he looks like a 110 to 120 wRC+ hitter to me.  The low end of that range would be at his current raw power / bat speed and the high end would be with further strength gains (which I think are possible given his frame).  For him to be an impactful player at 1B, he will need to find a way to get to the higher end of the wRC+ range.  Defensively I think he can eventually be plus at 1B so that will help some, but ultimately him being part of the long-term core will come down to additional improvements with the bat as league average production simply won’t cut if at 1B.  I’m giving him the rest of this year and 2026 before I make that call.

My take on Vargas is he has a chance to be a solid regular every day player, maybe platoon bench bat at worst. Problem is, I would want someone who hits for more power than that at 1B or 3B.

[southsider2k5]

18 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

My take on Vargas is he has a chance to be a solid regular every day player, maybe platoon bench bat at worst. Problem is, I would want someone who hits for more power than that at 1B or 3B.

This.  If he isn't a 3rd baseman, he becomes the type of 1B that you are pretty quickly to upgrade on, because his bat isn't 1B good.  It is 3B.

[WhiteSox2023]

53 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

They've been more fun to watch lately but still need a couple true power hitters. Maybe one of the guys already here will develop a bit more but still need some sluggers.

They definitely need way more power and also need to luck into a few above average position players and maybe even a star.

[WhiteSox2023]

18 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This.  If he isn't a 3rd baseman, he becomes the type of 1B that you are pretty quickly to upgrade on, because his bat isn't 1B good.  It is 3B.

I know this is at least 3+ years down the line and a lot of things can change, but I could see the Sox plan being to play Colson at SS for now and move him to 3B when/if Carlson is ready for the bigs.  Colson appears to have a cannon for an arm and could probably easily transition to 3B.  I doubt Vargas is a long-term solution at any position.

[southsider2k5]

I do think some of these other guys can carve out a major league existence.

Sosa is the type of guy who can carve out a 10 year type of career between starting and bench, and bouncing around a field with his bat.  Again, the type of guy who is if he is your starter, you would be looking to upgrade, but also not enough IF talent to go around, so he will survive.  Hell if half of the guys who have played IF for the Sox the past few years are still around, that should tell you right there.

I think Chase will probably peak out as a low level starter, but he could also be a solid utility guy

Baldwin is definitely a swiss army knife type of guy.  Once he learns consistency, he can stick around forever.  If the bat comes around, he is a middle tier type of guy.

 

With the pitchers, it Burke and Cannon are pretty well showing what I thought they were going into the season, probably #4 to 5 starters, with #3 potential in a good year.

Shane Smith we definitely need to see how he bounces back.  Is the league figuring him out, is he tired, or is it some of both.

Grant Taylor obviously has a big time arm and needs to learn consistency, but also if he is going to be even a closer, that is a huge loss for the rotation of the future, as he was projected as a front to middle stud.

[fathom]

Montgomery needs to show he can’t play SS.  Meidroth is much better at 2B than SS defensively as well.

[GreenSox]

Vasil is certainly part of the core.  Probably a starter next season.  Control an issue, but he's got guts.
Leasure is part of the core.  Needs work on control, but a lot of talent,

Pretty much all of the young pitchers need command improvement (taylor would become great with command).

As soon as the Sox move the vets out of the pen, we'll see if Palette et al can enter the core.

Edited July 24 by GreenSox

[WestEddy]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Last night was one of the most enjoyable games of White Sox baseball I have witnessed in a long time.  Many of the young guys had stellar games and/or stellar moments.  This got me thinking about the young guys currently on the roster.  Right now, we have 11 players under the age of 26.  Of the players listed below, who do you see as part of the future core, what role do you see them playing, and what kind of performance do you expect out of them?

Position Players:

• Chase Meidroth (24.0): 325 PA | 9.8% BB % | 13.2% K % | .059 ISO | 84 wRC+ | 1.1 fWAR
• Miguel Vargas (25.7): 409 PA | 9.5% BB % | 17.1K % | .179 ISO | 98 wRC+ | 1.1 fWAR
• Lenyn Sosa (25.5): 319 PA | 2.8% BB % | 23.5% K % | .143 ISO | 84 wRC+ | 0.7 fWAR
• Kyle Teel (23.4): 101 PA | 13.9% BB % | 27.7% K % | .096 ISO | 122 wRC+ | 0.6 fWAR
• C. Montgomery (23.4): 58 PA | 10.3% BB % | 25.9% K % | .196 ISO | 129 wRC+ | 0.6 fWAR
• Edgar Quero (22.3): 224 PA | 9.8% BB % | 17.4% K % | .086 ISO | 98 wRC+ | 0.2 fWAR
• Brooks Baldwin (24.9): 182 PA | 5.5% BB % | 29.9% K % | .139 ISO | 71 wRC+ | -0.7 fWAR

Pitchers:

• Shane Smith (25.3): 86.2 IP | 8.41 K/9 | 3.84 BB/9 | 0.93 HR/9 | 4.29 xERA | 1.1 fWAR
• Grant Taylor (23.2): 18.1 IP | 11.29 K/9 | 2.95 BB/9 | 0.00 HR/9 | 2.08 xERA | 0.8 fWAR
• J. Cannon (25.0): 88.1 IP | 7.34 K/9 | 3.06 BB/9 | 1.43 HR/9 | 4.90 xERA | 0.7 fWAR
• Sean Burk (25.6): 101 IP | 7.57 K/9 | 4.19 BB/9 | 1.43 HR/9 | 5.23 xERA | 0.4 fWAR

Yeah, I think this is the "core" going forward. I agree with adding Vasil to the rotation. There's really no other position players on the horizon for OD 2026, and I don't think any of these trades bring in more than, maybe, one OF project to compete with Will Robertson and Dru Baker. Maybe Bryan Ramos gets a good long look in the back third this year. 

But I think this is their team. Maybe they add a more substantial OF and 1B, maybe a starter and closer, and viola! They're a 70 win team waiting for the 24/25/26 drafts to filter up through the minors and challenge some of these guys. I wouldn't hazard a guess at individual stats, but I don't think it's crazy to look for 70 wins in 26, and a .500 + team in 2027. 

As far a true "core", maybe the two Montys, Teel/Quero and a couple of Hagen Smith, Schultz, Grant Taylor, Tanner McDougal, Burke, Thorpe - and that's the team you build around for the back part of the roaring 20's. 

I think Vargas has an amazing ceiling and maybe could be a Mark Grace kind of 1B. Hits, fields, and has a little pop. Brooks Baldwin could be all sorts of things. Meidroth is nice and maybe hangs onto 2B, while one of Bonemer/Carlson move Monty to 3B or eventually 1B. 

Edited July 24 by WestEddy

[chitownsportsfan]

Core: Meidroth, Montgomery, Quero, Teel

Peripheral: Vargas, Sosa, Burke, Smith, Taylor, Vasil

Could be useful as end of roster on a good team: Baldwin, Cannon, probably some relievers on farm / current MLB roster

We need to find like 50 HR somewhere. Maybe Colson can be half that. 

[Tnetennba]

4 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

I still don't see much in the way of long term starters outside of Colson and the Catchers when it come to position players, but that we all kind of knew.

This part. 

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, fathom said:

Montgomery needs to show he can’t play SS.  Meidroth is much better at 2B than SS defensively as well.

I’m starting to think we’re going to see an infield of Montgomery, Meidroth, Antonacci, & Vargas across 3B, SS, 2B, & 1B respectively next year.  Sam may not be there day 1, but he is starting to look like a legit everyday guy.

[Jake]

If you are willing to believe that Vargas became a new man when his swing change happened, this is what he's done since then: 1.6 fWAR, .246/.325/.458 line, 117 wRC+, 12 homers in 77 games. You could even naively extrapolate that to a full season by multiplying everything by 2. That will play just fine at 1B even if it doesn't mean he's a star. And it's clear he can play 3B competently. The way I look at it, he's not really playing 1B because there's something seriously wrong with his 3B defense but because the Sox have the personnel to push him there. I'm not going to act like any of us can precisely forecast what anyone is going to be, but I feel reasonably confident that Vargas is an MLB-quality player. His floor is still a bench player I suppose but I'm feeling like he's most likely a solid everyday player much as he's looked like for the bulk of this season.

As for the rest of the core, my current gut feeling is that Teel is the next safest bet. Of course, playing catcher is always such a big plus that it raises your floor. It's obvious that he's at least solid defensively. And to me, his bat is looking just like we would have hoped. I don't think there's a ton of risk there besides the usual cautions you give with small sample sizes. For those who don't compulsively check these things, Statcast points towards Teel actually deserving significantly better results than he's gotten so far. Those watching the games can probably remember a handful of near-misses on homers and such. Teel is (IMO) a really likable player thanks to his very obvious intensity and desire to win, but it wouldn't shock me if at some point that same trait might drive him into a slump. Still, there's a lot to like there. His ceiling isn't exactly Johnny Bench, but the talent is there to be one of if not the greatest Sox catchers (sorry late career Pudge). We'll happily "settle" for an AJ Pierzynski type of career too of course.

As a hitter, I feel pretty good about Quero as well. His defense has looked more rough than Teel's in some respects but I think it's best not to put too much stock in partial-season framing metrics, especially with ABS challenges coming soon (probably). Quero makes excellent swing decisions at the plate and is very much the kind of hitter that Getz seems to love. He's doing some things at the plate that help him manage the excellent contact rate and low chase rates while also limiting his upside. He's an extreme outlier in terms of how deep he lets the ball get before making contact paired with a very opposite field oriented swing path (thanks to Statcast for giving data on this). Quero is basically propping up his plate discipline and contact by watching the pitch so long that he often can't make power-oriented contact. That is paired with a short, slow swing which has the same costs and benefits. He may need to adjust that to become a truly good hitter. I'll note that Statcast indicates that Quero has been gradually making contact more out in front of his body, with a bit less push-oriented bat angle, and higher-velocity swings. That matches the eye test for me too. That said, he's shown that he can basically go up there in survival mode and be a MLB-quality hitter even if an unremarkable one. Did I mention he's just freshly 22 years old? That's really exciting to me, too.

I have less to say about Meidroth despite really liking him. I still see some risk that he ends up a bench player. So far, his defense seems good enough that it's not going to kill your team if he never really hits. I'm not sure whether that will be true in the long run but it will be great if it is. He only needs to find a little bit more power to be a fixture in the lineup going forward. I'm happy to give him every chance going forward.

It's great seeing Colson not flounder at the MLB level and his defensive acumen at 3B and SS is a very nice surprise. He's also running better than I expected. He's showing the top flight bat speed (and therefore power potential) that we had been promised. He's also showing some really problematic swing and miss tendencies in his short sample so far. I look at in-zone whiff rate as the simplest measure of pure contact ability. His would be the second worst in MLB if he had enough ABs to qualify — those around that part of the leaderboard include, to be fair, some great hitters who offset the whiffs with other stuff like power hitting and walks. So far I'm not seeing great patience from Colson although it's not a serious issue in and of itself. He's being beaten badly by non-fastball pitches thus far, whiffing at around half of them which is truly astronomical. Looking at his zone breakdowns (beware: very small sample sizes), he's only making >60% contact on pitches that are down the middle, middle in, or up and in. The inside pitches he's hitting extremely softly. Middle-middle is the only place he's making hard contact. A change from his first 100ish games in AAA is that he's handling velocity pretty well, which is one of those signs that he's not necessarily the guy we saw in 2024 or early 2025. But he's just oozing with risk and I'm not going to pencil him into the core yet despite a nice-looking slash line. 

I like Lenyn Sosa. I'm not totally sure what he is or will be. I think the average Soxtalker underrates his defense because of how conspicuous his defensive mistakes are. It's not often that there's a guy who seems completely competent at 2B or 3B but is somehow confounded by the basics of 1B defense like standing on the base and catching throws. He's just kind of a space cadet, it is what it is. At the plate, there are some nice trends in his profile. Every year, the production has improved (granted it started at a very bad level). Every year, his bat speed has gotten faster. His exit velocities have gotten higher (predictable from the bat speed). His ground ball rates have gone down (a ton) and his line drive rates have gone up. He's doubled the rate at which he pulls the ball in the air. On the other hand, he barely ever walks and he chases a ton (second only to PCA in MLB). Those limit the upside because I think those are traits that are very difficult to teach. He doesn't make good swing decisions in general, not only chasing but taking too many strikes. Yet he shows very good natural contact ability and the arrow is still going up on the raw power. The two hardest balls he's ever hit were both in the past week as were 5 of the hardest 8 balls he's ever hit. I want to see where that's heading. Likewise, his chase rate has been on a steady downward trend since the beginning of May. He'll never be a plate discipline guy but it's possible he won't be an auto-out against a slider in the other batter's box. He's also showing reverse splits which I find interesting — I tend to think if a righty is hitting righties, that's hard to teach. But you can teach him to hit lefties. I see Lenyn as a guy who may be a bench/utility guy in the long run but has a little bit of upside, especially because of the power he's flashing. He's not going to win a gold glove, he's never going to run a high OBP, so those will hold him back somewhat. Still 25 years old and 4 more years until free agency.

I'm no longer putting Brooks Baldwin into the core conversation. I'm starting to see him increasingly as someone with bench/utility upside instead of downside. Not writing him off yet and I'm open to him getting everyday reps if/when the Sox move LouBob and Tauchman. I don't know whether he has a defensive position. I'm supportive of the Sox's plan to give him a chance in the outfield but as we saw last night it has not yet borne fruit. It's not totally fair to Brooks who entered the year with little experience there, but then again he looked like dog water playing the infield this year. He has a Sosa-like propensity for boneheaded mistakes on defense and they were happening at a high frequency when he was in the infield. He runs well enough that he's made some plays that some of our other outfielders just can't make. In fact, I think the ball he dropped last night is one that e.g. Benintendi doesn't even attempt to catch. On the other side of the ball, I don't think he gives us much to dream on as a hitter. He has big problems with velocity, whiffing at double the league average rate on 95+ heaters. You don't have to watch closely to see he chases those pitches helplessly. His contact ability besides that is fine but not superlative. His propensity to chase is not overall very high but in two-strike counts it is astronomical with predictable results. His stats looked good in AAA after his demotion but Statcast points to it being substantially luck-based. I'll credit him for showing a little pop as a lefty hitter, having athleticism in general, and still being quite inexperienced so there's a chance he makes some of the very difficult adjustments that he needs to. 

Overall, I feel decently okay about the offensive core. There is a lack of star power. Maybe Braden Montgomery ends up providing it. Or, much later, Billy Carlson. Or someone else pushes beyond what we thought their abilities were. More problematic for me is it's really not very clear who the next wave is. All the guys who are "close" are in Chicago right now. The cohort that might have included the likes of Jacob Gonzalez, Bryan Ramos, Wilfred Veras maybe...just isn't materializing. The group of kids in A/A+ look interesting but they are obviously further off — debuting mid-2026 in the absolute most optimistic cases and more likely 2027+. It makes me feel like this deadline is sneaky important because even if you aren't getting that star power (IDK how you would), you want to get more Chase Meidroths, Lenyn Sosas, Brooks Baldwins. It's either that or you start finding some hidden gems in major league free agent market or the trade scrap heaps. Eugenio Suarez was free to a good home a couple years ago. Ryan O'Hearn has been on and off waivers a number of times. Brent Rooker was a waiver claim. You want to hit on a couple guys like that if you don't want to win the next Harper-esque bidding war — in fact, hitting on a Rooker type is often a pre-condition for swimming in those deep waters.  

On the pitching side, IDK. I like Grant Taylor but I'm not putting a reliever in my core. I think that out of Cannon, Davis, Burke, Thorpe, Shane Smith, Vasil, Noah Schultz, Hagen Smith, Christian Oppor, Tanner McDougal, ..., others...you probably can find a usable rotation in there that doesn't require too terribly much outside investment. I have no idea how many of those guys will still be hanging around a couple years from now and pitching well nor do I know which it will be. Pitchers have a bad habit of suffering 18 month injuries. And a bad habit of being bad. 

Edited July 24 by Jake

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Need to see more from Vargas, and some consistency.

Tiers for me:

Tier One (guys I'm comfortable with being around in 5 years): Colson, Teel, Taylor and Smith
Tier Two (guys that are more likely than not to be around in five years, but less likely as regulars): Vargas, Quero, Vasil
Tier Three (they need to change something significant about their games to be in the league in five years): Meidroth, Baldwin, Sosa and Cannon
Tier Four (not in my future as they exist today): Burke

Meidroth for me is closer to Tier two than the other three in Tier three, but the lack of EV and authority with which he hits the ball needs to improve. 

Edit: forgot Sosa and added him. With Sosa I could see him having a nice year, but sustaining with the plate discipline profile is really hard. 

Edited July 24 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[chitownsportsfan]

9 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Need to see more from Vargas, and some consistency.

Tiers for me:

Tier One (guys I'm comfortable with being around in 5 years): Colson, Teel, Taylor and Smith
Tier Two (guys that are more likely than not to be around in five years, but less likely as regulars): Vargas, Quero, Vasil
Tier Three (they need to change something significant about their games to be in the league in five years): Meidroth, Baldwin, and Cannon
Tier Four (not in my future as they exist today): Burke

Meidroth for me is closer to Tier two than the other two in Tier three, but the lack of EV and authority with which he hits the ball needs to improve. 

Question on Meidroth is can he be 15 runs above avg over a season at 2B? If so he can slash 240/320/340 and still hang on as an averagish regular. If he hits more than that he can be a solid regular.

The tiers make sense and your list is pretty similar overall to mine. I don't know if I'm as high on Taylor and Smith however. I think maybe they'd be peripheral guys on a good staff. Obviously you'd hope both continue to develop.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, Jake said:

If you are willing to believe that Vargas became a new man when his swing change happened, this is what he's done since then: 1.6 fWAR, .246/.325/.458 line, 117 wRC+, 12 homers in 77 games. You could even naively extrapolate that to a full season by multiplying everything by 2. That will play just fine at 1B even if it doesn't mean he's a star. And it's clear he can play 3B competently. The way I look at it, he's not really playing 1B because there's something seriously wrong with his 3B defense but because the Sox have the personnel to push him there. I'm not going to act like any of us can precisely forecast what anyone is going to be, but I feel reasonably confident that Vargas is an MLB-quality player. His floor is still a bench player I suppose but I'm feeling like he's most likely a solid everyday player much as he's looked like for the bulk of this season.

As for the rest of the core, my current gut feeling is that Teel is the next safest bet. Of course, playing catcher is always such a big plus that it raises your floor. It's obvious that he's at least solid defensively. And to me, his bat is looking just like we would have hoped. I don't think there's a ton of risk there besides the usual cautions you give with small sample sizes. For those who don't compulsively check these things, Statcast points towards Teel actually deserving significantly better results than he's gotten so far. Those watching the games can probably remember a handful of near-misses on homers and such. Teel is (IMO) a really likable player thanks to his very obvious intensity and desire to win, but it wouldn't shock me if at some point that same trait might drive him into a slump. Still, there's a lot to like there. His ceiling isn't exactly Johnny Bench, but the talent is there to be one of if not the greatest Sox catchers (sorry late career Pudge). We'll happily "settle" for an AJ Pierzynski type of career too of course.

As a hitter, I feel pretty good about Quero as well. His defense has looked more rough than Teel's in some respects but I think it's best not to put too much stock in partial-season framing metrics, especially with ABS challenges coming soon (probably). Quero makes excellent swing decisions at the plate and is very much the kind of hitter that Getz seems to love. He's doing some things at the plate that help him manage the excellent contact rate and low chase rates while also limiting his upside. He's an extreme outlier in terms of how deep he lets the ball get before making contact paired with a very opposite field oriented swing path (thanks to Statcast for giving data on this). Quero is basically propping up his plate discipline and contact by watching the pitch so long that he often can't make power-oriented contact. That is paired with a short, slow swing which has the same costs and benefits. He may need to adjust that to become a truly good hitter. I'll note that Statcast indicates that Quero has been gradually making contact more out in front of his body, with a bit less push-oriented bat angle, and higher-velocity swings. That matches the eye test for me too. That said, he's shown that he can basically go up there in survival mode and be a MLB-quality hitter even if an unremarkable one. Did I mention he's just freshly 22 years old? That's really exciting to me, too.

I have less to say about Meidroth despite really liking him. I still see some risk that he ends up a bench player. So far, his defense seems good enough that it's not going to kill your team if he never really hits. I'm not sure whether that will be true in the long run but it will be great if it is. He only needs to find a little bit more power to be a fixture in the lineup going forward. I'm happy to give him every chance going forward.

It's great seeing Colson not flounder at the MLB level and his defensive acumen at 3B and SS is a very nice surprise. He's also running better than I expected. He's showing the top flight bat speed (and therefore power potential) that we had been promised. He's also showing some really problematic swing and miss tendencies in his short sample so far. I look at in-zone whiff rate as the simplest measure of pure contact ability. His would be the second worst in MLB if he had enough ABs to qualify — those around that part of the leaderboard include, to be fair, some great hitters who offset the whiffs with other stuff like power hitting and walks. So far I'm not seeing great patience from Colson although it's not a serious issue in and of itself. He's being beaten badly by non-fastball pitches thus far, whiffing at around half of them which is truly astronomical. Looking at his zone breakdowns (beware: very small sample sizes), he's only making >60% contact on pitches that are down the middle, middle in, or up and in. The inside pitches he's hitting extremely softly. Middle-middle is the only place he's making hard contact. A change from his first 100ish games in AAA is that he's handling velocity pretty well, which is one of those signs that he's not necessarily the guy we saw in 2024 or early 2025. But he's just oozing with risk and I'm not going to pencil him into the core yet despite a nice-looking slash line. 

I like Lenyn Sosa. I'm not totally sure what he is or will be. I think the average Soxtalker underrates his defense because of how conspicuous his defensive mistakes are. It's not often that there's a guy who seems completely competent at 2B or 3B but is somehow confounded by the basics of 1B defense like standing on the base and catching throws. He's just kind of a space cadet, it is what it is. At the plate, there are some nice trends in his profile. Every year, the production has improved (granted it started at a very bad level). Every year, his bat speed has gotten faster. His exit velocities have gotten higher (predictable from the bat speed). His ground ball rates have gone down (a ton) and his line drive rates have gone up. He's doubled the rate at which he pulls the ball in the air. On the other hand, he barely ever walks and he chases a ton (second only to PCA in MLB). Those limit the upside because I think those are traits that are very difficult to teach. He doesn't make good swing decisions in general, not only chasing but taking too many strikes. Yet he shows very good natural contact ability and the arrow is still going up on the raw power. The two hardest balls he's ever hit were both in the past week as were 5 of the hardest 8 balls he's ever hit. I want to see where that's heading. Likewise, his chase rate has been on a steady downward trend since the beginning of May. He'll never be a plate discipline guy but it's possible he won't be an auto-out against a slider in the other batter's box. He's also showing reverse splits which I find interesting — I tend to think if a righty is hitting righties, that's hard to teach. But you can teach him to hit lefties. I see Lenyn as a guy who may be a bench/utility guy in the long run but has a little bit of upside, especially because of the power he's flashing. He's not going to win a gold glove, he's never going to run a high OBP, so those will hold him back somewhat. Still 25 years old and 4 more years until free agency.

I'm no longer putting Brooks Baldwin into the core conversation. I'm starting to see him increasingly as someone with bench/utility upside instead of downside. Not writing him off yet and I'm open to him getting everyday reps if/when the Sox move LouBob and Tauchman. I don't know whether he has a defensive position. I'm supportive of the Sox's plan to give him a chance in the outfield but as we saw last night it has not yet borne fruit. It's not totally fair to Brooks who entered the year with little experience there, but then again he looked like dog water playing the infield this year. He has a Sosa-like propensity for boneheaded mistakes on defense and they were happening at a high frequency when he was in the infield. He runs well enough that he's made some plays that some of our other outfielders just can't make. In fact, I think the ball he dropped last night is one that e.g. Benintendi doesn't even attempt to catch. On the other side of the ball, I don't think he gives us much to dream on as a hitter. He has big problems with velocity, whiffing at double the league average rate on 95+ heaters. You don't have to watch closely to see he chases those pitches helplessly. His contact ability besides that is fine but not superlative. His propensity to chase is not overall very high but in two-strike counts it is astronomical with predictable results. His stats looked good in AAA after his demotion but Statcast points to it being substantially luck-based. I'll credit him for showing a little pop as a lefty hitter, having athleticism in general, and still being quite inexperienced so there's a chance he makes some of the very difficult adjustments that he needs to. 

Overall, I feel decently okay about the offensive core. There is a lack of star power. Maybe Braden Montgomery ends up providing it. Or, much later, Billy Carlson. Or someone else pushes beyond what we thought their abilities were. More problematic for me is it's really not very clear who the next wave is. All the guys who are "close" are in Chicago right now. The cohort that might have included the likes of Jacob Gonzalez, Bryan Ramos, Wilfred Veras maybe...just isn't materializing. The group of kids in A/A+ look interesting but they are obviously further off — debuting mid-2026 in the absolute most optimistic cases and more likely 2027+. It makes me feel like this deadline is sneaky important because even if you aren't getting that star power (IDK how you would), you want to get more Chase Meidroths, Lenyn Sosas, Brooks Baldwins. It's either that or you start finding some hidden gems in major league free agent market or the trade scrap heaps. Eugenio Suarez was free to a good home a couple years ago. Ryan O'Hearn has been on and off waivers a number of times. Brent Rooker was a waiver claim. You want to hit on a couple guys like that if you don't want to win the next Harper-esque bidding war — in fact, hitting on a Rooker type is often a pre-condition for swimming in those deep waters.  

On the pitching side, IDK. I like Grant Taylor but I'm not putting a reliever in my core. I think that out of Cannon, Davis, Burke, Thorpe, Shane Smith, Vasil, Noah Schultz, Hagen Smith, Christian Oppor, Tanner McDougal, ..., others...you probably can find a usable rotation in there that doesn't require too terribly much outside investment. I have no idea how many of those guys will still be hanging around a couple years from now and pitching well nor do I know which it will be. Pitchers have a bad habit of suffering 18 month injuries. And a bad habit of being bad. 

I appreciate you posting this…great stuff

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

11 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Question on Meidroth is can he be 15 runs above avg over a season at 2B? If so he can slash 240/320/340 and still hang on as an averagish regular. If he hits more than that he can be a solid regular.

The tiers make sense and your list is pretty similar overall to mine. I don't know if I'm as high on Taylor and Smith however. I think maybe they'd be peripheral guys on a good staff. Obviously you'd hope both continue to develop.

I think Smith probably has a career back in the pen if he cant sustain the innings. His stuff should play up more there and he has a great arm, so Im confident there.

Taylor is the kind of guy that even if he struggles results wise, some teams will always bet on that arm. I was really high on him coming into this year and still love his arm, but really wish he wasnt reliever profiled. 

As for Meidroth, that type of defensive performance is so much noisier for me, so hard to expect it without seeing a much larger sample. But if he does sustain it for 300+ games, I think it would reset his floor and he'd have a career as a utility guy guaranteed for a while. 

[southsider2k5]

25 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Need to see more from Vargas, and some consistency.

Tiers for me:

Tier One (guys I'm comfortable with being around in 5 years): Colson, Teel, Taylor and Smith
Tier Two (guys that are more likely than not to be around in five years, but less likely as regulars): Vargas, Quero, Vasil
Tier Three (they need to change something significant about their games to be in the league in five years): Meidroth, Baldwin, Sosa and Cannon
Tier Four (not in my future as they exist today): Burke

Meidroth for me is closer to Tier two than the other three in Tier three, but the lack of EV and authority with which he hits the ball needs to improve. 

Edit: forgot Sosa and added him. With Sosa I could see him having a nice year, but sustaining with the plate discipline profile is really hard. 

I think Baldwin and Meidroth have some defensive flexibility and some room to grow there, and we all know you can hold on forever in MLB if you can play some defense and multiple positions.