Sox offense since the All-Star break

[Lip Man 1]

Greg:

Let’s assume for discussion purposes that EVERY hitter currently on the big league roster avoids getting hurt next seasons, avoids the “Sophomore Jinx”, avoids completely falling off the table like so many Sox players have done the past decade.

Let’s assume they avoid all of those scenarios.

OK…

The team defense is still atrocious, their grasp of baseball fundamentals is comical and those lose games.

Now let’s look at the pitching.

They need AT LEAST two solid starters and three-quarters of this wretched bullpen needs to be shitcanned and replaced. Included in the replacements have to be at least one solid set up man and then you have to get a very good closer.

I have no idea what the free agent list for next year will be or if any of those players would even consider this franchise but even if they did, JR is still running the show. And again you have the specter of a labor impasse staring you right in the face in 2027 which could impact at least some or most of that year and impact revenue. We know how much JR values the bottom line.

Enough said.

Things potentially change when Ishbia takes over. Until then? Hope is all that you’ve got (and hope is no way to run a successful franchise.)

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, WestEddy said:

I'd call this team a 65-70 win team, right now, as is. Maybe a few of Vargas, Meidroth, Monty, Mead, Ramos, Baldwin, Teel, Quero, Lee and Sosa step up and play like bona fide regulars, and they add to that in the 26-27 off-season. As it stands, Grant Taylor, McDougal and Vasil are set to crash the rotation next season, and they might even give Schultz the opportunity to make the team out of spring training after a strong AFL showing. 

Taylor, McDougal , Vasil in the rotation seems like a long shot to me. They won't even give Taylor 2 inning relief appearances and even then he's not exactly lighting up MLB hitters. I think were pretty far from seeing those 3 in the rotation together during the regular season if ever. 
Pitching is so hard to predict when guys are ready.Schultz is still a baby with a balky knee and no innings. 

In my eyes they are exactly what they are right now. A bunch of youngs guys learning how to play in the big league and a roster still in flux. Every facet of the team needs to get much better just to reach . 500. Just a few months ago we were talking about 100 loses again this year and many people thinking they couldnt get to 50 wins. 

Im excited to see what happens  next year but not excited enough to think any money gets spent outside of Robert, and  knowing JR that isn't a given ,or picking up Perez' $10M option. Also not a given. 

[greg775]

2 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Let me have what you're drinking...I want to get loaded too! 😆

Not...even...close.

And with the labor situation coming up JR won't allow Getz to do anything dramatic to improve the talent.

 

Interesting you don't think they are close to .500 team next year.

[nrockway]

2 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Greg:

Let’s assume for discussion purposes that EVERY hitter currently on the big league roster avoids getting hurt next seasons, avoids the “Sophomore Jinx”, avoids completely falling off the table like so many Sox players have done the past decade.

Let’s assume they avoid all of those scenarios.

OK…

The team defense is still atrocious, their grasp of baseball fundamentals is comical and those lose games.

Now let’s look at the pitching.

They need AT LEAST two solid starters and three-quarters of this wretched bullpen needs to be shitcanned and replaced. Included in the replacements have to be at least one solid set up man and then you have to get a very good closer.

I have no idea what the free agent list for next year will be or if any of those players would even consider this franchise but even if they did, JR is still running the show. And again you have the specter of a labor impasse staring you right in the face in 2027 which could impact at least some or most of that year and impact revenue. We know how much JR values the bottom line.

Enough said.

Things potentially change when Ishbia takes over. Until then? Hope is all that you’ve got (and hope is no way to run a successful franchise.)

Which 6 should go? Which 2 stay?

[greg775]

2 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Greg:

Let’s assume for discussion purposes that EVERY hitter currently on the big league roster avoids getting hurt next seasons, avoids the “Sophomore Jinx”, avoids completely falling off the table like so many Sox players have done the past decade.

Let’s assume they avoid all of those scenarios.

OK…

The team defense is still atrocious, their grasp of baseball fundamentals is comical and those lose games.

Now let’s look at the pitching.

They need AT LEAST two solid starters and three-quarters of this wretched bullpen needs to be shitcanned and replaced. Included in the replacements have to be at least one solid set up man and then you have to get a very good closer.

I have no idea what the free agent list for next year will be or if any of those players would even consider this franchise but even if they did, JR is still running the show. And again you have the specter of a labor impasse staring you right in the face in 2027 which could impact at least some or most of that year and impact revenue. We know how much JR values the bottom line.

Enough said.

Things potentially change when Ishbia takes over. Until then? Hope is all that you’ve got (and hope is no way to run a successful franchise.)

I saw this post after I commented on your other one. Interesting. I'm glad we agree our pitching staff still reeks. I didn't realize the team was that bad defensively now. Remember our opposition isn't exactly lights out good. I think we'll finish 3-4 below .500, way worse if the pitching staff is abysmal.

[Lip Man 1]

2 hours ago, greg775 said:

I saw this post after I commented on your other one. Interesting. I'm glad we agree our pitching staff still reeks. I didn't realize the team was that bad defensively now. Remember our opposition isn't exactly lights out good. I think we'll finish 3-4 below .500, way worse if the pitching staff is abysmal.

Greg, I wouldn't bet your house or your life on them winning 76-77 games next year, just not happening. 

[greg775]

1 minute ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Greg, I wouldn't bet your house or your life on them winning 76-77 games next year, just not happening. 

Then the Sox must be in a totally separate stratosphere of KC. Cleveland, Detroit and Minnie who all are also wretched organizations. Hard to believe we will be this bad til the new owner takes over. ... And we sweep Minnie on the road. Crazy.

[Lip Man 1]

2 hours ago, nrockway said:

Which 6 should go? Which 2 stay?

The only ones I'd keep would be Taylor, Vasil and maybe, MAYBE Leasure.

Everyone else? Don't let the door hit you in the ass on your way out of the stadium and that also includes a bunch of guys on the 40 man roster overall.

[Lip Man 1]

2 hours ago, nrockway said:

Which 6 should go? Which 2 stay?

The only ones I'd keep would be Taylor, Vasil and maybe, MAYBE Leasure.

Everyone else? Don't let the door hit you in the ass on your way out of the stadium and that also includes a bunch of guys on the 40 man roster overall.

[nrockway]

3 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

The only ones I'd keep would be Taylor, Vasil and maybe, MAYBE Leasure.

Everyone else? Don't let the door hit you in the ass on your way out of the stadium and that also includes a bunch of guys on the 40 man roster overall.

So you'd kick to the curb the rookie with the sub 2 ERA? Or the guy who will make ~$1mil next year with a 139 ERA+?

I think with that context, 75% becomes becomes 38%.

[Lip Man 1]

7 minutes ago, nrockway said:

So you'd kick to the curb the rookie with the sub 2 ERA? Or the guy who will make ~$1mil next year with a 139 ERA+?

I think with that context, 75% becomes becomes 38%.

You asked who would I keep, I told you. This bullpen needs to be cleaned out like with a colonoscopy. The past two years it has been an unmitigated disaster by most metrics, the absolute worst in baseball. 

 

[nrockway]

43 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

You asked who would I keep, I told you. This bullpen needs to be cleaned out like with a colonoscopy. The past two years it has been an unmitigated disaster by most metrics, the absolute worst in baseball. 

 

Why wouldn't you keep those two players is my question. Is a 1.84 ERA bad especially when the player is a rookie? The three guys you mention + Wikelman Gonzalez and Steven Wilson are all good players making next to nothing. The left-handers is the question mark. There are a few of them in the system that seem to be pretty good. Also making nothing. Aroldis Chapman alone costs double what the potential 2026 bullpen would cost.

Edited September 5 by nrockway

[WestEddy]

9 hours ago, nrockway said:

Why wouldn't you keep those two players is my question. Is a 1.84 ERA bad especially when the player is a rookie? The three guys you mention + Wikelman Gonzalez and Steven Wilson are all good players making next to nothing. The left-handers is the question mark. There are a few of them in the system that seem to be pretty good. Also making nothing. Aroldis Chapman alone costs double what the potential 2026 bullpen would cost.

Because, when one gets to set standards so high they'll never be met. It's fun to pretend that we would fire everyone and demand that every Hall-of-Famer in their prime sign with our team if we were GM.

[nrockway]

6 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Because, when one gets to set standards so high they'll never be met. It's fun to pretend that we would fire everyone and demand that every Hall-of-Famer in their prime sign with our team if we were GM.

Yeah I think it's a good sign that Hahn-era Grant Taylor and Leasure are actually developing and look like high leverage, nasty stuff talent. Too bad that Grant isn't starting, but it's probably for his health more than anything (sort of like Mason Miller). Meanwhile Vasil was just some guy that nobody wanted and will likely throw 100+ IP to a 2.50ish ERA. Gonzalez was trade filler. Sucks that S Wilson seems like the best piece in the Cease trade, but his production this year and throughout his career has been very solid. Leasure was an add on to the Lance Lynn trade, he's not even in MLB anymore. All of these guys make nothing.

To be fair, it took a lot of churn, some growing pains, some really bad outings from guys like Bryse Wilson; it's still not a sure thing (are young pitchers ever?) but it would be silly to devote serious money to a bullpen in a rebuilding season. Debatably ever. Seem to recall Sox fans being not so happy devoting a combined $31mil in 2022 to Hendriks, Graveman, Joe Kelly, Vince Velazquez when that money might have been spent on a proper position player. Or fuckin' Craig Kimbrel...

My opinion is there's one more year of churn to see who the actual 8 guys are. Also the 5 starters. There are a ton of options. We seem to forget that many of the guys anticipated to be on the roster by now are recovering from TJ and could contribute next season along with the many guys who have performed well in the minors and ought to debut next season. Maybe more Rule 5 magic is in store. Having an entire bullpen on pre-arb - arb2 deals who can be around or above 100 ERA+ is definitely advantageous especially when you have someone like Grant Taylor at the back end. If Leasure pitches to his potential, that's a really good setup man. Even if Hagen or Noah 'bust', that's some serious left-handed stuff out of the pen. At that point, maybe you try to sign or trade for a top-end starter in 2027 or 2028. Maybe Luzardo. That part remains to be seen or if ownership will pay for it. The recent track record of Lynn, Keuchel, Shields suggests 'perhaps'. Not that any of those guys were very good, but they were well-paid.

I'm not the GM, I don't know! But I don't think the doom and gloom is rooted in much of anything anything. There are definitely question marks, question marks that are maybe alleviated if you pay big money to someone like Edwin Diaz, Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman. I'd just rather spend limited money on a position player that fits an actual need. And give it another year to see what the holes are.

[Lip Man 1]

11 hours ago, nrockway said:

Why wouldn't you keep those two players is my question. Is a 1.84 ERA bad especially when the player is a rookie? The three guys you mention + Wikelman Gonzalez and Steven Wilson are all good players making next to nothing. The left-handers is the question mark. There are a few of them in the system that seem to be pretty good. Also making nothing. Aroldis Chapman alone costs double what the potential 2026 bullpen would cost.

Steve Wilson is flat brutal, Gonzalez is another four A player. How many late games does Wilson have to blow or help lose to convince you over the past two years?

He was a guy that supposedly was a key piece in the Cease deal so that the Sox could deal him...the problem was nobody wanted him even with his low salary. He has been directly responsible for blowing three games so far this year where the Sox had a lead in the seventh inning or later and last year that number was five. 

Again I'd keep Vasil, Taylor and maybe Leasure. Taylor and Leasure both have some real potential and are still young. Although I'd make Taylor a starter myself if I was the Sox. 

This column today summed up the Sox bullpen nicely:

https://www.southsidesox.com/chicago-white-sox-commentary-and-analysis/115647/bryse-wilson-joins-the-list-of-white-sox-failed-relievers#comments

Edited September 5 by Lip Man 1

[WestEddy]

17 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

He was a guy that supposedly was a key piece in the Cease deal so that the Sox could deal him...the problem was nobody wanted him even with his low salary. He has been directly responsible for blowing three games so far this year where the Sox had a lead in the seventh inning or later and last year that number was five. 

I'm gonna go ahead and just say that Steven Wilson was not a key piece of the Cease deal.

[Lip Man 1]

8 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I'm gonna go ahead and just say that Steven Wilson was not a key piece of the Cease deal.

I respectfully disagree with you, he wasn't a "throw-in" by any means.

[Autumn Dreamin]

WILLing and venABLE

[Autumn Dreamin]

[Sox Fan In Husker Land]

Since the All Star Break the Sox are 21-23. 

I know it's roughly only a quarter of a season, but this is beyond encouraging since the break. 

Kyle Teel (23) is on pace for a 6.0 fWAR season over 132 games, and 7.4 fWAR over 162. 

Colson Montgomery (23) is on pace for a 5.7 fWAR season over 151 games, and 6.1 fWAR over 162.

Luis Robert Jr. (27) is on pace for a 3.8 fWAR season over 117 games, and 5.2 fWAR over 162. 

Miguel Vargas (25) is on pace for a 3.0 fWAR season over 106 games, and 4.6 fWAR over 162. 

Chase Meidroth (23) is on pace for a 3.0 fWAR season over 113 games, and 4.3 fWAR over 162. 

Lenyn Sosa (25) is on pace for a 2.6 fWAR season over 158 games, and 2.7 fWAR over 162. 

Edgar Quero (22) is on pace for a 2.3 fWAR season over 121 games, and 3.0 fWAR over 162. 

[joejoesox]

Teel with that BABIP BOOST

[Stinky Stanky]

Thx to nrockway for reminding us that big bucks buy bozos in building a bullpen and you’re better off building your own. 

[Lip Man 1]

5 minutes ago, Stinky Stanky said:

Thx to nrockway for reminding us that big bucks buy bozos in building a bullpen and you’re better off building your own. 

Hopefully the Sox figure out a way to do that. So far they haven't. 

[nrockway]

5 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Steve Wilson is flat brutal, Gonzalez is another four A player. How many late games does Wilson have to blow or help lose to convince you over the past two years?

He was a guy that supposedly was a key piece in the Cease deal so that the Sox could deal him...the problem was nobody wanted him even with his low salary. He has been directly responsible for blowing three games so far this year where the Sox had a lead in the seventh inning or later and last year that number was five. 

Again I'd keep Vasil, Taylor and maybe Leasure. Taylor and Leasure both have some real potential and are still young. Although I'd make Taylor a starter myself if I was the Sox. 

This column today summed up the Sox bullpen nicely:

https://www.southsidesox.com/chicago-white-sox-commentary-and-analysis/115647/bryse-wilson-joins-the-list-of-white-sox-failed-relievers#comments

Why is Gonzalez a 4A player? He's actually performing well and he's 23, same age as Grant, 4 years younger than Leasure. His profile is very good and he's controlling his stuff. His 1-2 combo of four-seam/slurve is quite effective. The slurve and changeup are great wipeout pitches, the slurve has wild movement and it's a huge velocity difference from his fastball. Hitters are batting under .100 on the fastball. I think he's clearly an MLB player, he's just not the starter the Red Sox hoped he'd be. He and Grant have been used ineffectively at times, throwing rookies into the flame instead of giving them clean innings. Learning experiences for the rookies including the rookie manager.

I agree with you that Wilson isn't a high leverage guy, but he's having his best season this year and is a career 107+ ERA. That isn't stunning, but it's literally above average and 4 years is a reasonable track record. He was also the third piece in that bust of a trade, I don't think you can fault him for not being a superstar. He seems like a reasonably paid guy that you bring out in the 6th inning or whatever.

Reading that SSS article, most of those guys are not going to stick around. That's the churn I spoke of. I think it's disrespectful for the writer to call, for example, Eisert's 4.19 ERA putrid. It's literally league average and from the left side and he's technically a rookie. But is controllable with options. I'd hope we find a better alternative. There are some internal guys. 

I think Booser was clearly the biggest miss but he could be salvageable yet if he throws strikes.

Look at some of the guys in the minor league system that ought to be called up next season. Most of those Bryse Wilson type guys are just warm bodies to waste some time. This was obviously gonna be a wasted year. The churn resulted in a few useful players. You only need 8 of them. I think we're set on righties for sure. Too many of them arguably. 

Edited September 5 by nrockway

[Lip Man 1]

2 minutes ago, nrockway said:

Why is Gonzalez a 4A player? He's actually performing well and he's 23, same age as Grant, 4 years younger than Leasure. His profile is very good and he's controlling his stuff. His 1-2 combo of four-seam/slurve is quite effective. The slurve and changeup are great wipeout pitches, the slurve has wild movement and it's a huge velocity difference from his fastball. Hitters are batting under .100 on the fastball. I think he's clearly an MLB player, he's just not the starter the Red Sox hoped he'd be. He and Grant have been used ineffectively at times, throwing rookies into the flame instead of giving them clean innings. Learning experiences for the rookies including the rookie manager.

I agree with you that Wilson isn't a high leverage guy, but he's having his best season this year and is a career 107+ ERA. That isn't stunning, but it's literally above average and 4 years is a reasonable track record. He was also the third piece in that bust of a trade, I don't think you can fault him for not being a superstar. He seems like a reasonably paid guy that you bring out in the 6th inning or whatever.

Reading that SSS article (in general, they post AI stuff for what it's worth. this looks like a real article. I'd be looking at soxmachine and futuresox before that site to be sure), most of those guys are not going to stick around. That's the churn I spoke of. I think it's disrespectful for the writer to call, for example, Eisert's 4.19 ERA putrid. It's literally league average and from the left side and he's technically a rookie. But is controllable with options. I'd hope we find a better alternative. There are some internal guys. 

I think Booser was clearly the biggest miss but he could be salvageable yet if he throws strikes.

Regarding SSS I can tell you from knowing Brett and some of the folks they do not use A.I. to write stories.