Streamer 600 Projections

[Chicago White Sox]

Given the slow offseason, I wanted to start looking at protections for next year and see how the team is stacking up in current form.  For this exercise, I am taking the projected 26 man roster from Fangraphs’ Roster Resource and summarizing the Steamer 600 projections for each player.  To start, I’m going to look at the starting lineup:

Lineup:

1. Meidroth, 2B | 108 wRC+ | 3.2 fWAR
2. Teel, CA* | 106 wRC+ | 1.9 fWAR
3. Montgomery, SS* | 98 wRC+ | 2.6 fWAR
4. Vargas, 3B | 107 wRC+ | 2.0 fWAR
5. Benintendi, LF* | 103 wRC+ | 0.7 fWAR
6. Robert, CF | 96 wRC+ | 2.0 fWAR
7. Quero, DH# | 104 wRC+ | 0.8 fWAR
8. Sosa, 1B | 93 wRC+ | 1.0 fWAR
9. Baldwin, RF# | 101 wRC+ | 1.8 fWAR

Key Takaways:

• The model is assuming significant regression offensively from both Colson & Teel next year, but material improvement with the bat from Meidroth
• Colson put up a 129 wRC+ last year with his wOBA only .015 points higher than expected; despite that, Steamer does NOT believe he can maintain his .290 ISO from last year which ranked 13th overall and project it to drop by ~.090 points
• Teel put up a 125 wRC+ last year with his wOBA only .012 points higher than expected; despite that, Steamer does NOT believe he can maintain his .273 BA from last year as it was driven by a high BABIP (8th overall in MLB) and expect it to drop by ~.025 points
• Meidroth remains an analytics darling with the highest projected fWAR on the team; Steamer expects his wRC+ to improve by 21 points next due to gains in both his BB rate (+2.2 % pts) & ISO (+.042) while maintaining positive defense value in the middle infield
• The model is expecting Robert’s wRC+ to improve by 12 points next year but still well short of his 126 wRC+ in the 2H of last year
• Despite projected improvement with the bat, Quero’s expected fWAR remains fairly low due to below average defense at the catcher spot
• The model see improvement for Vargas & Baldwin offensively next year, but feels Sosa will regress some due a drop in both ISO & BABIP

[Chicago White Sox]

What stands out when you see the above?  Who do you guys think will exceed their projections?

Personally, I think it’s fun & interesting lineup for a team when expectations of competing next year.  With the addition or two in free agency, I think this group could really surprise next year.

[Timmy U]

Steamer leans heavily into how it translates MiLB numbers and it isn’t all that accurate when it does that. Obviously, I hope the projection is way off for Colson. Otherwise, next season will be a disaster.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

Steamer leans heavily into how it translates MiLB numbers and it isn’t all that accurate when it does that. Obviously, I hope the projection is way off for Colson. Otherwise, next season will be a disaster.

All fair points, but I don’t think regression for Colson is that far fetched.  His power numbers were insane last year and he may struggle to maintain a 90th percentile barrel rate as the league adjusts to him.  Personally, I think he regresses some but nowhere near to the levels that Steamer is projecting.

[WestEddy]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What stands out when you see the above?  Who do you guys think will exceed their projections?

Personally, I think it’s fun & interesting lineup for a team when expectations of competing next year.  With the addition or two in free agency, I think this group could really surprise next year.

Most of what I have to offer would be based on gut and wish-casting, but Steamer thinks Ryan O'Hearn would be good for 1.1 fWAR, and Bleday 0.9. Tauchman's at 0.7. While I'm resigned to something like an O'Hearn addition, I would hope the front office does get cute and takes a few gambles.

[caulfield12]

13 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Most of what I have to offer would be based on gut and wish-casting, but Steamer thinks Ryan O'Hearn would be good for 1.1 fWAR, and Bleday 0.9. Tauchman's at 0.7. While I'm resigned to something like an O'Hearn addition, I would hope the front office does get cute and takes a few gambles.

1.1 fWaR is worth just $7-8 million in free agency and very little to the next Sox playoff team.

If C.Montgomery Teel and S.Smith don't continue to progress and Meidroth actually leads the team, the rebuild is already in danger of flattening out before it even really gets started.

Which puts all the pressure squarely on Braden and that #1 2026 pick.

 

Otoh, Colson and Teel are 2026 All-Stars and both Schultz and Hagen come around and they could really have something.

OFC the main unavoidable dilemma is adding that one key impact hitter in FA to put them over the top, in the $125-175 million contract range.

Edited 2 hours ago by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

9 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Most of what I have to offer would be based on gut and wish-casting, but Steamer thinks Ryan O'Hearn would be good for 1.1 fWAR, and Bleday 0.9. Tauchman's at 0.7. While I'm resigned to something like an O'Hearn addition, I would hope the front office does get cute and takes a few gambles.

Steamer 600 doesn’t really take advantage of platooning and there are ways to get more with less obviously by doing so.  For example, Sosa put up a 121 wRC+ against LHP in the 2H of last year, but was basically league average against RHP.  He can certainly be a valuable role player, but his performance against RHP as a 1B/DH leaves a lot to be desired.  Adding someone like O’Hearn who has put up a 122 wRC+ against RHP over the past three seasons vastly improves our production at that spot.  To me, that’s the most obvious spot to add to enhance the offense without blocking a kid’s long term growth.

Bleday is a tough one to crack and I have no strong feelings on his outlook for last year as I candidly haven’t seen much of him.  That being said, I do like the idea of adding someone that can push Benintendi out of LF and possesses some level of upside.  I full acknowledge Braden Montgomery shouldn’t be too far out, but you just never know if development will go as planned.  And our OF depth is super thin even with the trade for Pereira who really feels like a weak side platoon option more than anything.  That being said, of all the OF options in free agency I feel like Bleday makes the most sense for us given his price, age, & potential team control.