Streamer 600 Projections

[Chicago White Sox]

Given the slow offseason, I wanted to start looking at protections for next year and see how the team is stacking up in current form.  For this exercise, I am taking the projected 26 man roster from Fangraphs’ Roster Resource and summarizing the Steamer 600 projections for each player.  To start, I’m going to look at the starting lineup:

Lineup:

1. Meidroth, 2B | 108 wRC+ | 3.2 fWAR
2. Teel, CA* | 106 wRC+ | 1.9 fWAR
3. Montgomery, SS* | 98 wRC+ | 2.6 fWAR
4. Vargas, 3B | 107 wRC+ | 2.0 fWAR
5. Benintendi, LF* | 103 wRC+ | 0.7 fWAR
6. Robert, CF | 96 wRC+ | 2.0 fWAR
7. Quero, DH# | 104 wRC+ | 0.8 fWAR
8. Sosa, 1B | 93 wRC+ | 1.0 fWAR
9. Baldwin, RF# | 101 wRC+ | 1.8 fWAR

Key Takaways:

• The model is assuming significant regression offensively from both Colson & Teel next year, but material improvement with the bat from Meidroth
• Colson put up a 129 wRC+ last year with his wOBA only .015 points higher than expected; despite that, Steamer does NOT believe he can maintain his .290 ISO from last year which ranked 13th overall and project it to drop by ~.090 points
• Teel put up a 125 wRC+ last year with his wOBA only .012 points higher than expected; despite that, Steamer does NOT believe he can maintain his .273 BA from last year as it was driven by a high BABIP (8th overall in MLB) and expect it to drop by ~.025 points
• Meidroth remains an analytics darling with the highest projected fWAR on the team; Steamer expects his wRC+ to improve by 21 points next due to gains in both his BB rate (+2.2 % pts) & ISO (+.042) while maintaining positive defense value in the middle infield
• The model is expecting Robert’s wRC+ to improve by 12 points next year but still well short of his 126 wRC+ in the 2H of last year
• Despite projected improvement with the bat, Quero’s expected fWAR remains fairly low due to below average defense at the catcher spot
• The model see improvement for Vargas & Baldwin offensively next year, but feels Sosa will regress some due a drop in both ISO & BABIP

[Chicago White Sox]

What stands out when you see the above?  Who do you guys think will exceed their projections?

Personally, I think it’s fun & interesting lineup for a team when expectations of competing next year.  With the addition or two in free agency, I think this group could really surprise next year.

[Timmy U]

Steamer leans heavily into how it translates MiLB numbers and it isn’t all that accurate when it does that. Obviously, I hope the projection is way off for Colson. Otherwise, next season will be a disaster.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

Steamer leans heavily into how it translates MiLB numbers and it isn’t all that accurate when it does that. Obviously, I hope the projection is way off for Colson. Otherwise, next season will be a disaster.

All fair points, but I don’t think regression for Colson is that far fetched.  His power numbers were insane last year and he may struggle to maintain a 90th percentile barrel rate as the league adjusts to him.  Personally, I think he regresses some but nowhere near to the levels that Steamer is projecting.

[WestEddy]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What stands out when you see the above?  Who do you guys think will exceed their projections?

Personally, I think it’s fun & interesting lineup for a team when expectations of competing next year.  With the addition or two in free agency, I think this group could really surprise next year.

Most of what I have to offer would be based on gut and wish-casting, but Steamer thinks Ryan O'Hearn would be good for 1.1 fWAR, and Bleday 0.9. Tauchman's at 0.7. While I'm resigned to something like an O'Hearn addition, I would hope the front office does get cute and takes a few gambles.

[caulfield12]

13 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Most of what I have to offer would be based on gut and wish-casting, but Steamer thinks Ryan O'Hearn would be good for 1.1 fWAR, and Bleday 0.9. Tauchman's at 0.7. While I'm resigned to something like an O'Hearn addition, I would hope the front office does get cute and takes a few gambles.

1.1 fWaR is worth just $7-8 million in free agency and very little to the next Sox playoff team.

If C.Montgomery Teel and S.Smith don't continue to progress and Meidroth actually leads the team, the rebuild is already in danger of flattening out before it even really gets started.

Which puts all the pressure squarely on Braden and that #1 2026 pick.

 

Otoh, Colson and Teel are 2026 All-Stars and both Schultz and Hagen come around and they could really have something.

OFC the main unavoidable dilemma is adding that one key impact hitter in FA to put them over the top, in the $125-175 million contract range.

Edited December 13 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

9 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Most of what I have to offer would be based on gut and wish-casting, but Steamer thinks Ryan O'Hearn would be good for 1.1 fWAR, and Bleday 0.9. Tauchman's at 0.7. While I'm resigned to something like an O'Hearn addition, I would hope the front office does get cute and takes a few gambles.

Steamer 600 doesn’t really take advantage of platooning and there are ways to get more with less obviously by doing so.  For example, Sosa put up a 121 wRC+ against LHP in the 2H of last year, but was basically league average against RHP.  He can certainly be a valuable role player, but his performance against RHP as a 1B/DH leaves a lot to be desired.  Adding someone like O’Hearn who has put up a 122 wRC+ against RHP over the past three seasons vastly improves our production at that spot.  To me, that’s the most obvious spot to add to enhance the offense without blocking a kid’s long term growth.

Bleday is a tough one to crack and I have no strong feelings on his outlook for last year as I candidly haven’t seen much of him.  That being said, I do like the idea of adding someone that can push Benintendi out of LF and possesses some level of upside.  I full acknowledge Braden Montgomery shouldn’t be too far out, but you just never know if development will go as planned.  And our OF depth is super thin even with the trade for Pereira who really feels like a weak side platoon option more than anything.  That being said, of all the OF options in free agency I feel like Bleday makes the most sense for us given his price, age, & potential team control.

[nrockway]

I don’t trust any of these projection models. Sosa, Robert, Montgomery being the worst hitters in the lineup simply does not check out to me. 

[JoshPR]

This is all cool and all but I hate reading geek s%*#. That's why the games are played. And that's the beauty of it. The unknown. All these geek stats and projections are interesting and so.ewhat informative you can't take them by heart

[WhiteSox2023]

I think Teel and Quero will be better.  However, I’m not buying that Baldwin projection.

[ChiSoxFanMike]

That Meidroth projection would be great

Teel and Colson should be better than that

I’d take that from Vargas

Benintendi, Robert, and Sosa all seem fairly realistic

Seems slightly pessimistic on Quero and optimistic for Baldwin

 

[Chicago White Sox]

Updated post Murakami signing:

Lineup:

1. Meidroth, 2B | 108 wRC+ | 3.2 fWAR
2. Teel, CA* | 106 wRC+ | 2.0 fWAR
3. Montgomery, SS* | 98 wRC+ | 2.6 fWAR
4. Vargas, 3B | 107 wRC+ | 2.3 fWAR
5. Benintendi, LF* | 103 wRC+ | 0.7 fWAR
6. Robert, CF | 96 wRC+ | 2.0 fWAR
7. Murakami, 1B* | 118 wRC+ | 2.1 fWAR
8. Quero, DH# | 104 wRC+ | 0.8 fWAR
9. Baldwin, RF# | 101 wRC+ | 1.7 fWAR

Depth:

• IF: Sosa | 93 wRC+ | 0.9 fWAR
• IF: Mead | 94 wRC+ | 1.5 fWAR
• IF: Antonacci* | 92 wRC+ | 1.9 fWAR
• OF: Pereira | 89 wRC+ | 0.8 fWAR
• OF: Hill | 85 wRC+ | 0.8 fWAR
• OF: Peters* | 81 wRC+ | 0.5 fWAR

Edited yesterday at 03:39 PM by Chicago White Sox

[Chicago White Sox]

If we can keep Robert, I think this lineup has a chance to be good next year.  But the outfield is a potential weak spot and our depth there is atrocious.  If we trade Luis, we have to add another corner OF to the mix.

[SoxBlanco]

Never thought there would come a time where Robert, at age 28, would have the lowest wRC+ projection in the lineup. 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, SoxBlanco said:

Never thought there would come a time where Robert, at age 28, would have the lowest wRC+ projection in the lineup. 

Honestly, bad for Robert given where he used to be but a great sign for the broader group.  Having a lineup full of league average hitters or better should help raise the floor of this team substantially.  I also think some of these projections are very pessimistic, in particular Colson & Teel.

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Never thought there would come a time where Robert, at age 28, would have the lowest wRC+ projection in the lineup. 

I feel like we will never see good Luis Robert again.  I think injuries have taken their toll.

[zisk]

18 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I feel like we will never see good Luis Robert again.  I think injuries have taken their toll.

If Robert is surrounded by players taking walks and working counts, he might stop swinging at everything himself. 

Of course, that is a really big if. Self awareness and change can be almost impossible sometimes.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, zisk said:

If Robert is surrounded by players taking walks and working counts, he might stop swinging at everything himself. 

Of course, that is a really big if. Self awareness and change can be almost impossible sometimes.

This is who he is.  He's been this way for his whole career.  He isn't a young pup anymore.

[WestEddy]

1 hour ago, zisk said:

If Robert is surrounded by players taking walks and working counts, he might stop swinging at everything himself. 

Of course, that is a really big if. Self awareness and change can be almost impossible sometimes.

I've always held out hope for Robert to regain that prowess he had in 2023. But if you take a sober look at his B-R page, he's been available roughly 100 games in 3 of the last 4 seasons. He's put up 1.4 bWAR and 85 OPS+ in the last 2. I mean, that's a league average production when he's in the lineup. But if you're banking on packing a lineup around the guy to make him better, maybe you could just go out and find somebody who gives you what Robert does for cheaper, or develop a better CF. 

Jose Abreu was always a good hitter. When playing on garbage teams, he still put in his work and hit like he was supposed to. Robert should be the guy who makes Colson and Teel better, not the other way around. 

[Chicago White Sox]

23 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This is who he is.  He's been this way for his whole career.  He isn't a young pup anymore.

His chase rate has improved two straight years and his BB rate was actually above league average for the first time last year.  He’s made legit improvements in terms of plate discipline vs. where he was a few years ago.  With a stronger lineup around him he should get better pitches to hit and be able to utilize his raw power much more efficiently.  I expect him to rebound with the bat next year, but have much less confidence in his ability to stay healthy.

[Lukakke Appling]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

I feel like we will never see good Luis Robert again.  I think injuries have taken their toll.

I don’t know about that. We saw a good version of him to finish out the year, and his athleticism hasn’t deteriorated at all. It’s still in there somewhere. 

[Chicago White Sox]

22 minutes ago, Lukakke Appling said:

I don’t know about that. We saw a good version of him to finish out the year, and his athleticism hasn’t deteriorated at all. It’s still in there somewhere. 

Yeah, he hasn’t lost any raw power or speed.  This has all come down to pitchers adjusting to him and he not figuring how to adjust to them until recently.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Sox were 8th in MLB in HRs after the All- Star break and added the top power hitter in Japan. 

Baldwin also was a productive hitter in the 2nd half with an August slash of .270/.325/.459/.784 and a Sept./Oct. line of .268/.328/.500/.828 that covered 42 games & 141 plate appearences. 

That exactly the way you want to see a young hitter finish his 1st go round against MLB pitching who had a tough time of it in April &

May.

They sent him back down to Charlotte  and in 29 games he hit 12 HRs with a massive 1.180 OPS. 

 

 

 

[SoxBlanco]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Sox were 8th in MLB in HRs after the All- Star break and added the top power hitter in Japan. 

Baldwin also was a productive hitter in the 2nd half with an August slash of .270/.325/.459/.784 and a Sept./Oct. line of .268/.328/.500/.828 that covered 42 games & 141 plate appearences. 

That exactly the way you want to see a young hitter finish his 1st go round against MLB pitching who had a tough time of it in April &

May.

They sent him back down to Charlotte  and in 29 games he hit 12 HRs with a massive 1.180 OPS. 

 

 

 

That stretch in Charlotte for Baldwin was insane. It honestly felt like he went deep every single game for a couple weeks. 

[almagest]

6 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Updated post Murakami signing:

Lineup:

1. Meidroth, 2B | 108 wRC+ | 3.2 fWAR
2. Teel, CA* | 106 wRC+ | 2.0 fWAR
3. Montgomery, SS* | 98 wRC+ | 2.6 fWAR
4. Vargas, 3B | 107 wRC+ | 2.3 fWAR
5. Benintendi, LF* | 103 wRC+ | 0.7 fWAR
6. Robert, CF | 96 wRC+ | 2.0 fWAR
7. Murakami, 1B* | 118 wRC+ | 2.1 fWAR
8. Quero, DH# | 104 wRC+ | 0.8 fWAR
9. Baldwin, RF# | 101 wRC+ | 1.7 fWAR

Depth:

• IF: Sosa | 93 wRC+ | 0.9 fWAR
• IF: Mead | 94 wRC+ | 1.5 fWAR
• IF: Antonacci* | 92 wRC+ | 1.9 fWAR
• OF: Pereira | 89 wRC+ | 0.8 fWAR
• OF: Hill | 85 wRC+ | 0.8 fWAR
• OF: Peters* | 81 wRC+ | 0.5 fWAR

If Murakami ends up with 2.1 fWAR and a 118 wRC+ I’d be pretty happy. That’s around an .800 OPS which compared to Vaughn looks like Big Frank is over there again.