OD 26 Man Roster Projection

[southsider2k5]

50 minutes ago, tray said:

I imagined that Getz has put a for sale sign on Benintendi so to speak, just looking for a team that will pick up perhaps half of his remaining Contract.

Quero has had an amazing ST, but maybe Getz would consider a trade for him, if the right deal was offered....like a TOR starter. Quero is an amazing catcher, but he may have one flaw - he looks like he is slow on the bases... but that is just from my own observation. Maybe he is faster than he looks. Not hoping they trade him but some have mentioned that they do not like having both catchers in the line-up in case of injury or substitution, and the Sox have others who can DH from either side. 

The only way you dump Benny is if you take on another bad contract in return. 

If he was a free agent, what kind of deal would he get?  Looking at his offensive numbers and adding to it he is borderline unplayable in LF for a team with aspirations, would he even get a true major league deal?  Dude is a replacement play who can't play defense.   He doesn't hit enough to hide at DH or 1B.  

Cut him and move on.  He's a waste of space for the White Sox. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

I’d be shocked if Antonacci or McDougal made the team. 

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I’d be shocked if Antonacci or McDougal made the team. 

That was a 5/1 roster projection.

6/1 or 7/1 seems much more likely…or at least possible.

Same with Braden…but still rushing him a bit.

[WhiteSox2023]

8 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/onsi/boston-red-sox-news/masataka-yoshida-causes-stir-among-red-sox-fans-with-team-japan-blast-jackson3
 

Benintendi goes home again to Boston and Yoshida gets a defined role with the White Sox.

Boston would need to send $8-10 million along to balance the risk.

 

Article is an overreaction to one good exhibition game in a friendly environment.

Should be also panic if Murakami and Ohtani went hitless for two games?  Probably not.

I think the Sox would prefer to free up a position player spot on the roster rather than adding another similarly bloated outfielder contract for the next two years, just to save a few million.  More like a trade for a similarly bloated starter/reliever contract like the Hicks trade.  But I guess Jerry is still the owner, so I’m sure he’d love to save even up to $5 million if the Red Sox are sending up to $10 million back to the White Sox with Yoshida for Benintendi.  But I’m not sure Benintendi is that much better than Yoshida for Boston to even want to make that trade.

Edited Wednesday at 12:45 PM by WhiteSox2023

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

9 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I’d be shocked if Antonacci or McDougal made the team. 

Yeah, I think Antonacci should be able to earn a spot but don't think he will.

I'm surprised by the McDougal love here. I think he has a shot of being a nice big league arm, but right now he still has serious reliever risk. I have his projected walk rate per 9 in the big leagues right now near 5.25, which basically aligns with him being lucky to get out of the 4th inning of starts at the moment. Maybe he continues the progress he made last year command-wise, but it's certainly not a guarantee and I wouldn't be relying on him to be a contributing member of a MLB rotation this year!

The only starter, right now, who I think has the ability to step in and show out upon promotion is Schultz, and all of that depends on how he bounces back this year health wise and stuff-wise. Oppor is probably a year away, Smith I believe could probably succeed out of the Pen right away but he has even bigger command concerns for me than McDougal. Command is the MOST important attribute for any young arm to succeed early. A lack of it leads you to 2019 and 2020 Dylan Cease.

I can squint and see some positive outcomes and possibilities with some bats, but the arm cupboard is not stocked full. This is the worst rotation in baseball on paper.

[caulfield12]

21 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yeah, I think Antonacci should be able to earn a spot but don't think he will.

I'm surprised by the McDougal love here. I think he has a shot of being a nice big league arm, but right now he still has serious reliever risk. I have his projected walk rate per 9 in the big leagues right now near 5.25, which basically aligns with him being lucky to get out of the 4th inning of starts at the moment. Maybe he continues the progress he made last year command-wise, but it's certainly not a guarantee and I wouldn't be relying on him to be a contributing member of a MLB rotation this year!

The only starter, right now, who I think has the ability to step in and show out upon promotion is Schultz, and all of that depends on how he bounces back this year health wise and stuff-wise. Oppor is probably a year away, Smith I believe could probably succeed out of the Pen right away but he has even bigger command concerns for me than McDougal. Command is the MOST important attribute for any young arm to succeed early. A lack of it leads you to 2019 and 2020 Dylan Cease.

I can squint and see some positive outcomes and possibilities with some bats, but the arm cupboard is not stocked full. This is the worst rotation in baseball on paper.

Colorado?

Or their veteran signings push them ahead?

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-power-rankings-spring-training-2026-no-18-30/

Nationals Cardinals A's also in the running....for the bottom.

Edited Wednesday at 02:14 PM by caulfield12

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

25 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Colorado?

Or their veteran signings push them ahead?

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-power-rankings-spring-training-2026-no-18-30/

Nationals Cardinals A's also in the running....for the bottom.

I think Colorado is right there with them certainly. Sox bullpen is a good bit better than Colorado's. Their rotations are similar in badness.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

On 2/26/2026 at 7:45 AM, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

67 wins would be around 21 fWAR, but the range would really be between about 19 fWAR and 23 fWAR is reasonable for 67 wins. I have this pitching staff around 8 fWAR and the offense around 13 fWAR.

Oddly enough, here's a nice explanation as to why a team WAR range may sit 19-23 while all being 67 win teams or why, possibly, a 22 WAR team might be projected to win fewer games than a team with 20 projected WAR.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hey-fangraphs-your-math-isnt-mathing-or-is-it/

[Chicago White Sox]

5 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yeah, I think Antonacci should be able to earn a spot but don't think he will.

I'm surprised by the McDougal love here. I think he has a shot of being a nice big league arm, but right now he still has serious reliever risk. I have his projected walk rate per 9 in the big leagues right now near 5.25, which basically aligns with him being lucky to get out of the 4th inning of starts at the moment. Maybe he continues the progress he made last year command-wise, but it's certainly not a guarantee and I wouldn't be relying on him to be a contributing member of a MLB rotation this year!

The only starter, right now, who I think has the ability to step in and show out upon promotion is Schultz, and all of that depends on how he bounces back this year health wise and stuff-wise. Oppor is probably a year away, Smith I believe could probably succeed out of the Pen right away but he has even bigger command concerns for me than McDougal. Command is the MOST important attribute for any young arm to succeed early. A lack of it leads you to 2019 and 2020 Dylan Cease.

I can squint and see some positive outcomes and possibilities with some bats, but the arm cupboard is not stocked full. This is the worst rotation in baseball on paper.

Yeah, if you have his BB/9 rate doubling from the 2.75/9 he just posted as a 22 year old in AA last year then I can see why you are pessimistic.  That being said, not sure how you got to that 5.25 figure without over-indexing on his earlier minor league production, which seems crazy in this age of player development and when talking about a prospect who was aggressively moved through the system since coming back from TJS.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

27 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Yeah, if you have his BB/9 rate doubling from the 2.75/9 he just posted as a 22 year old in AA last year then I can see why you are pessimistic.  That being said, not sure how you got to that 5.25 figure without over-indexing on his earlier minor league production, which seems crazy in this age of player development and when talking about a prospect who was aggressively moved through the system since coming back from TJS.

Zero over indexing. I'm not just using walk rate and certainly not from 50 innings. In his minor league career, McDougal has walked 4.9 batters per nine. Additionally, 37% of the pitches McDougal threw last year were balls. In the MLB, that would rank McDougal in the bottom 10% of starters. When you take into account his high chase rate, you realize he's throwing even more balls. MLB batters will chase less, meaning you're looking at a ball rate near 39%-40% which is in league leading territory. 

Throwing balls doesn't necessarily mean youre bad, but more of them than not live on the edge of the zone but those with plus stuff who throw balls can still succeed. It just usually takes time and doesn't occur immediately, and they struggle getting deep into games to start their careers. Hunter Brown is a pretty good example for you to look at in context. I am absolutely higher than most public models, but I've had some pretty good success in the pitching forecasting sphere so I don't really anchor off anything else.

Editing: Just to add that Brown had better zone command, but was erratic and threw a lot of pitches because of his high ball count. I don't think Tanner McDougal is going to be Hunter Brown --- who is awesome.

Edited Wednesday at 08:08 PM by Look at Ray Ray Run

[chitownsportsfan]

3 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Oddly enough, here's a nice explanation as to why a team WAR range may sit 19-23 while all being 67 win teams or why, possibly, a 22 WAR team might be projected to win fewer games than a team with 20 projected WAR.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hey-fangraphs-your-math-isnt-mathing-or-is-it/

It is amazing how often Tom Tango's work comes up still in 2026. They are still using a variation of his original "Base Runs" formula.

[Nardiwashere]

7 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yeah, I think Antonacci should be able to earn a spot but don't think he will.

I'm surprised by the McDougal love here. I think he has a shot of being a nice big league arm, but right now he still has serious reliever risk. I have his projected walk rate per 9 in the big leagues right now near 5.25, which basically aligns with him being lucky to get out of the 4th inning of starts at the moment. Maybe he continues the progress he made last year command-wise, but it's certainly not a guarantee and I wouldn't be relying on him to be a contributing member of a MLB rotation this year!

The only starter, right now, who I think has the ability to step in and show out upon promotion is Schultz, and all of that depends on how he bounces back this year health wise and stuff-wise. Oppor is probably a year away, Smith I believe could probably succeed out of the Pen right away but he has even bigger command concerns for me than McDougal. Command is the MOST important attribute for any young arm to succeed early. A lack of it leads you to 2019 and 2020 Dylan Cease.

I can squint and see some positive outcomes and possibilities with some bats, but the arm cupboard is not stocked full. This is the worst rotation in baseball on paper.

Do you make your own projections?

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Zero over indexing. I'm not just using walk rate and certainly not from 50 innings. In his minor league career, McDougal has walked 4.9 batters per nine. Additionally, 37% of the pitches McDougal threw last year were balls. In the MLB, that would rank McDougal in the bottom 10% of starters. When you take into account his high chase rate, you realize he's throwing even more balls. MLB batters will chase less, meaning you're looking at a ball rate near 39%-40% which is in league leading territory. 

Throwing balls doesn't necessarily mean youre bad, but more of them than not live on the edge of the zone but those with plus stuff who throw balls can still succeed. It just usually takes time and doesn't occur immediately, and they struggle getting deep into games to start their careers. Hunter Brown is a pretty good example for you to look at in context. I am absolutely higher than most public models, but I've had some pretty good success in the pitching forecasting sphere so I don't really anchor off anything else.

Editing: Just to add that Brown had better zone command, but was erratic and threw a lot of pitches because of his high ball count. I don't think Tanner McDougal is going to be Hunter Brown --- who is awesome.

Two questions for you:

1) Where does McDougal’s ball percentage of 37% rate amongst AA pitchers?

2) In your projection model, how much weighting are you putting on his AA results specifically, his broader 2025 season, and prior seasons?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, Nardiwashere said:

Do you make your own projections?

I try! I use my stuff today for larger fantasy baseball leagues/tournaments. 

My pitching stuff has been better than my position player side. I Anchor my position player side to some public models, and on the pitching side I have a lot more player-level customs than any of the public models would, but it's worked for me so I don't Anchor it. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Two questions for you:

1) Where does McDougal’s ball percentage of 37% rate amongst AA pitchers?

2) In your projection model, how much weighting are you putting on his AA results specifically, his broader 2025 season, and prior seasons?

I'm not adjusting strike throwing for the environment as the minors also tend to have wider zones, so his position doesnt matter to me. 

I dont have any individual level customs on mcdougal. Performance valuation throughout the year is pretty flat. Does that mean I would miss a mid-season transformation? I guess, but thats a very rare event.

While growth is not linear, peaks and valleys in performance are also normal. For pitchers, consistency and sustainability are keys. He had better numbers at AA but he also had his innings managed and in 10 of his 15 starts it was 3 innings or less to finish the year. 

I like McDougal, im just skeptical of him having success in the MLB in 2 months.

[Chicago White Sox]

43 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'm not adjusting strike throwing for the environment as the minors also tend to have wider zones, so his position doesnt matter to me. 

I dont have any individual level customs on mcdougal. Performance valuation throughout the year is pretty flat. Does that mean I would miss a mid-season transformation? I guess, but thats a very rare event.

While growth is not linear, peaks and valleys in performance are also normal. For pitchers, consistency and sustainability are keys. He had better numbers at AA but he also had his innings managed and in 10 of his 15 starts it was 3 innings or less to finish the year. 

I like McDougal, im just skeptical of him having success in the MLB in 2 months.

I don’t think mid season transformations for minor league pitchers are all that rare.  Mechanical & repertoire changes can suddenly click for a young arm and immediately unlock better results.  Guys can change their hitter strategies (i.e attack the zone more) or their pitch sequencing and get better results.  These guys are literally developing in real time and should get better as the season progress.  IMO, using full season production to project go forward expectations is way too simplistic.

[tray]

I recall going to see the 1977 White Sox and the excitement that team brought to our fan base. The one thing that drove record attendance was the amount of HRs they hit (192, I believe).  Comiskey Park was showing signs of age at that time, inside and out, but that didn't hold back fans from attending...we loved our White Sox and we loved HR. 

Of course, Sox fans either recall or have read about that magical season, which leads me to proffer the following question. Which players on this years roster are going to hit HRs, and how many?Can this years White Sox energize fans like the '77 hitmen did?

Here were the HR totals for players on the '77 White Sox.

    Oscar Gamble: 31
    Richie Zisk: 30
    Eric Soderholm: 25
    Chet Lemon: 19
    Jim Spencer: 18
    Lamar Johnson: 18
    Jorge Orta: 11
    Jim Essian: 10
    Ralph Garr: 10

Can the 2026 White Sox line-up achieve similar results? 

 

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, tray said:

I recall going to see the 1977 White Sox and the excitement that team brought to our fan base. The one thing that drove record attendance was the amount of HRs they hit (192, I believe).  Comiskey Park was showing signs of age at that time, inside and out, but that didn't hold back fans from attending...we loved our White Sox and we loved HR. 

Of course, Sox fans either recall or have read about that magical season, which leads me to proffer the following question. Which players on this years roster are going to hit HRs, and how many?Can this years White Sox energize fans like the '77 hitmen did?

Here were the HR totals for players on the '77 White Sox.

    Oscar Gamble: 31
    Richie Zisk: 30
    Eric Soderholm: 25
    Chet Lemon: 19
    Jim Spencer: 18
    Lamar Johnson: 18
    Jorge Orta: 11
    Jim Essian: 10
    Ralph Garr: 10

Can the 2026 White Sox line-up achieve similar results? 

 

2000/03/06/08 and 2020/21 will be the closest.

[WestEddy]

Fegan has opinions:

P.O. Sox: Who gets priority on the shortstop depth chart? - Sox Machine

Quote

What are your predictions for the assignments for Everson Pereria and Jarred Kelenic - who the Sox were enthused about but have not played/well - and the two R5 picks?

Andrew S.

James: Would love to be proven wrong with a quick recovery and return to form, but Everson Pereira has now missed the first two weeks of Cactus League action with his oblique strain and there’s three weeks until Opening Day. Starting him on the IL to open the season seems like the best way to cautiously get Pereira up to speed from an injury that can easily be reaggravated, and steer him away from the dueling incentives of trying to make the team and ease back in. If Pereira is out, that more easily enables a scenario where Acuña, Hays, Benintendi, Baldwin and Kelenic are the five outfielders breaking camp, since the Sox have indicated that Kelenic is an NRI they’re particularly interested in from the start.

 

[46DidIt]

I think Hagen Smith should get two more full years of minor league development, personally. Put him on the Randy Johnson trajectory

[hogan873]

I suspect we'll start seeing guys sent to the minor league camps pretty soon.  I haven't been following too closely, but it seems like there haven't been too many surprises.  Which means there likely won't be many roster surprises.