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2026 Spring Training Thread

Timmy U

By Timmy U
in Pale Hose Talk

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Nardiwashere
Nardiwashere

"I'm not paying for this!  You said you were going to fix my car!  All you did was make it work like it did previously!"

Timmy U
Timmy U

Getz addresses the media today. Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow. Baseball season is upon us. Have at it.

Jake
Jake

Well at least there's some appreciation around here for how difficult it is to prove cause and effect. As far as Vargas goes, he had murdered AAA pitching to an extent that would have made you believe

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WestEddy Grand Master

WestEddy

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Yet nearly everyone has Roch or Carlson already supplanting him...with a move to 3B 1B or even DH considered due to those back  concerns and key differences when you line up Carlson against him and compare tape.

That said, he was much better than the majority of fans were led to expect based on where his game stood last off season and into April and early May.

So much of his game is based on confidence and daresay forward momentum.

Defense isn't measured by what internet people are saying. It's measured by what they do on the field. FanGraphs ranks Colson as 14th best defensive SS with 200+ PAs. He's an above-average defensive SS. The prospect of other players being even better doesn't affect one player's statistical defensive standing.

Here's your quote: Other than Baldwin and Acuna...there aren't an abundance of players here with exceptional POTENTIAL ability to field their positions in an above average manner.

Colson Montgomery just did that. 

There's hardly a one standard deviation above "average" MLB defender anywhere on the projected 2026 field other than the two previously mentioned

I have no idea what you're looking for, here. Define "one standard deviation above "average". 

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caulfield12 Grand Master

caulfield12

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Defense isn't measured by what internet people are saying. It's measured by what they do on the field. FanGraphs ranks Colson as 14th best defensive SS with 200+ PAs. He's an above-average defensive SS. The prospect of other players being even better doesn't affect one player's statistical defensive standing.

Here's your quote: Other than Baldwin and Acuna...there aren't an abundance of players here with exceptional POTENTIAL ability to field their positions in an above average manner.

Colson Montgomery just did that. 

There's hardly a one standard deviation above "average" MLB defender anywhere on the projected 2026 field other than the two previously mentioned

I have no idea what you're looking for, here. Define "one standard deviation above "average". 

14th out of low 30s is just not Top 7-12.

If he was THAT good and there were no concerns with his back/further injuries...he would be precisely Corey Seager Lite (due to the lower BA). 

NOBODY would talk about moving him, because of the overabundance of value in the game that amounts to all GMs.

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WestEddy Grand Master

WestEddy

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Posted
6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

How many Moncada RH at bats (or going old school, Jose Valentin RH at bats) did you need to watch?

Moncada was a consensus 1-2-3 prospect, along with Benintendi and Buxton.

RubRub: No one has ever done that!!
WE: Yes, some have. Here's actual examples. 
RubRub: My point is I'm not aware, and that's what counts!!
Caulfield: But what about European Sparrows?!?

I'm done with this subject. The two of you need to drop it and move on. 

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WestEddy Grand Master

WestEddy

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4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

14th out of low 30s is just not Top 7-12.

If he was THAT good and there were no concerns with his back/further injuries...he would be precisely Corey Seager Lite (due to the lower BA). 

NOBODY would talk about moving him, because of the overabundance of value in the game that amounts to all GMs.

Dude, this is how you wind up salty over losing a ban bet. You're wrong. Colson Montgomery is an above-average defensive shortstop. Having better shortstops in the pipeline doesn't make Colson a below-average defensive shortstop. 

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hogan873 Grand Master

hogan873

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, mataipaepae said:

You guys bicker like a bunch of old women. 
insufferable

And it's every thread.  I partially blame the Sox for creating this atmosphere by deliberately sucking for so long.

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caulfield12 Grand Master

caulfield12

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Dude, this is how you wind up salty over losing a ban bet. You're wrong. Colson Montgomery is an above-average defensive shortstop. Having better shortstops in the pipeline doesn't make Colson a below-average defensive shortstop. 

Because the Rays viewed Fairbanks as less than Nick Martinez even though Fairbanks will get $13-15 million to play this season or well above $11 million lol?

That was 100% correct.

Because he didn't sign for 2/$20?  That random probability is where I lost

Because Murakami fell into their laps somehow but they're still a bottom 3 payroll in the major leagues?

But then they turned around and basically dumped Robert to equal out the payroll.

 

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/stats-defense.php

Top 7 SS

 

Who are the SS's between 8-13 on your list?

Fg won't give me dWAR unless I subscribe.

You note he played basically half a season.

Which means he didn't do it over an entire 162 game season...everything in baseball can't be extrapolated like that.

Is Colson also likely to be a 5-6 fWAR hitter based on half a season last year?

All the projections would say no.

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WestEddy Grand Master

WestEddy

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Because the Rays viewed Fairbanks as less than Nick Martinez even though Fairbanks will get $13-15 million to play this season or well above $11 million lol?

That was 100% correct.

Because he didn't sign for 2/$20?  That random probability is where I lost

Because Murakami fell into their laps somehow but they're still a bottom 3 payroll in the major leagues?

But then they turned around and basically dumped Robert to equal out the payroll.

 

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/stats-defense.php

Top 7 SS

 

Who are the SS's between 8-13 on your list?

Fg won't give me dWAR unless I subscribe.

You note he played basically half a season.

Which means he didn't do it over an entire 162 game season...everything in baseball can't be extrapolated like that.

Is Colson also likely to be a 5-6 fWAR hitter based on half a season last year?

All the projections would say no.

Just look up Leaders > 2025, and sort for shortstops. There's a defense column. I set the cutoff at 200 PAs. 

I seem to remember you saying Fairbanks was going to get up to mid $40M.

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WestEddy Grand Master

WestEddy

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Posted

No White Sox, knock wood:

 

 

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WestEddy Grand Master

WestEddy

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WestEddy said:

Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA numbers out. I don't subscribe, but SouthSideSox posted the AL Central. 69.4 Wins for the Sox. 

Will the White Sox outperform their PECOTA projection of 69 wins? | South Side Sox

SoxMachine has a more thorough write-up of this. 

PECOTA nice(r) to White Sox; Erick Fedde is in the fold - Sox Machine

Quote

The 2025 PECOTA projections did not foresee any possibility of the White Sox finishing above .500, topping out at 78 wins. This time around, there's a front edge that carries past 81 wins and beyond, which is how the White Sox are given the faintest chance of a postseason appearance. It's only a 1.5 percent chance, but it's better than 0.0 percent, which is probably the gravest insult a projection system can issue.

 

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77 Hitmen Mentor

77 Hitmen

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Posted
57 minutes ago, fathom said:

What stinks is there could be good information in those posts, but I just scroll through them without reading

Yeah, I thought maybe something eventful happened with 7 pages of posts after only one day of training camp.  Nah, it's just endless arguments about past Sox failures.

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CaliSoxFanViaSWside Grand Master

CaliSoxFanViaSWside

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

"Of course power plays a big part. Having 4 or 5 guys who can consistently, year after year hit 20-30 HR is better than a few who couldnt stay on the field long enough to show it."

Benintendi is the perfect example of a guy with 15-25 homers now whose other at tributes or lack thereof make him not even the equivalent of a replacement player.

 

Let's compare prime Anderson and Colson.

Remember where TA stood in August of 2021 after the Field of Dreams walk off game?

He was one of the most celebrated/charismatic players in the sport while he was simultaneously winning batting titles, stealing 30-40 bags and playing SS with a fair that few possessed.

l

 

Throwing Vargas and Sosa aside for now...those short/er glue or complementary players the Brewers seem to have/identify in abundance, which Sox prospects in their first or second years would you go to Las Vegas and put down let's say $500 on their being 3.0 fWAR guys or above?

The White Sox clearly don't have young Latin American talent like Chourio for obvious  reasons since Dave Wilder back in the day...but who is their Brice Turang at least???

Meidroth has as many detractors as supporters...but numerous projection systems have him leading the Sox at 2-3 f/bwar.

Is he really a legit 3, though???

Can Colson repeat his last 3 1/2 months over a full season, or he does he go all sideways like Gordon Beckham?  He would be the most popular choice right now overall for a 3 fWAR season.

Kyle Teel might be 2 or 3 or even a 4.  Will he or Quero get enough at-bats to continue sustaining that second half impact?  Would/should we feel at least 75% confidence in that outcome? He definitely SEEMED like the heart of the team (along with Colson's brash confidence rubbing off on the Sox down the stretch).

Acuna? Baldwin? I'd put those 2 at 25% or less for a variety of reasons that have been well-argued and documented by others across Sox twitterverse.

Finally, nobody would be shocked if Braden Montgomery was an All-Star 2-3 years from now due to his likeability, work ethics and athletic tools outside of pure footspeed/burst in CF versus RF.

Yet Kiley McDaniel over at ESPN has him at #189, whereas the rest of milb evaluators are all over the map from 35-75.  Also, a majority of SoxTalk projected him in the majors by May of 2026 (on July 15th or so last year)....but serious contact and in-game power concerns emerged later in his season at higher levels.  The Southern League has been a real bear for a litany of prior top Sox prospects.

TL/DR lol

 

So: Meidroth Teel Quero Acuna Baldwin Braden...and let's throw Murakami in there for fun too, which ones are going to end 2026 at 3 fWAR or above at "just" 60-75% confidence level?

Probably would put $500 each on Colson and Kyle and let it roll...is that enough of a foundation with Roch?

And then Murakami hitting so well and walking enough he's at 2-2.5 fWAR at least???

 

Benintendi isnt a prospect so no reason to use him at in an argument whatsoever. 

Anderson vs Colson comparison has to do with projecting Colson's less than half a season with a full career of Anderson. Colson can certainly regress, stay the same or even get better at some parts of his game and regress in others.  Pretty easy to see a bright future for him . Or you can just refuse to see it.  That was what your original post was about. Then you used 3 examples of players with speed and defense whose careers were models of flashes of greatness but overall wouldnt even get them in the Hall of Very Good because of injuries. 

Are your arguments now that you can see it because you used 3 poor examples and the Sox still have some prospects that havent graduated to MLB (Bonemer, B.Montgomery) yet and also havent even played a game for the Sox ( Carlson) or even drafted yet ( the 1:1) ? 

Can't count on Murakami as a core piece because he is a unique young player who many teams didnt want to take a chance on because a Schwarber outcome is strictly a 1B/DH and seems pretty unlikely . It was unlikely in the Cubs mind for Schwarber to be what he became when he was nontendered.

There are people all over the country who can " see " very good futures for a lot of the rookies from last year and rookies of the future Sox. 

I don't think I went out on a limb to think they might end up with some pretty good players who's careers can eclipse the 3 examples you gave just by staying on the field and reaching some of their upside. 2026 will help or hurt. That's the nature of the game. Schwarber was 27 when the Cubs non-tendered him. Colson was a great prospect, then a bust , now MLB Network ranked him the 88th best player in the game based on 71 games. 

I understand baseball is a very difficult sport to predict the future and what we "see" can just be based on how we interpret probability ,ability, projectability or our level of belief that since it's the Sox, so fallability is certain.

Edit: Caulfield respectfully, you should probably not use your memory of TA if you arent going to fact check what you say to glorify him. No doubt his flair appealed to many fans but he did not win Multiple batting titles , he won 1. He also never stole as much as 30 bases let alone 40 when you said "30 to 40". I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt that you were just remembering wrong rather than exaggerating to make your point seem stronger. 

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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WestEddy Grand Master

WestEddy

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Posted (edited)

Fluff parts of Sandlin interview with Courtney Finnicum. Tried Giordano's deep dish, will report on bidets. 

 

 

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WestEddy Grand Master

WestEddy

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Posted
22 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Fluff parts of Sandlin interview with Courtney Finnicum. Tried Giordano's deep dish, will report on bidets. 

 

 

Full interview. Kind of fluffy. 

- knows teel, chase meidroth, wikelman, chris murphy from boston
- trained with davis martin
- zach bove - overlapped in KC
- focus - developing kick change to attack lefties
- most proud of sweeper and curve shapes
 

 

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DoUEvenShift Grand Master

DoUEvenShift

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

The 2025 PECOTA projections did not foresee any possibility of the White Sox finishing above .500, topping out at 78 wins. This time around, there's a front edge that carries past 81 wins and beyond, which is how the White Sox are given the faintest chance of a postseason appearance. It's only a 1.5 percent chance, but it's better than 0.0 percent, which is probably the gravest insult a projection system can issue.

giphy.gif

 

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