"Tomorrow we’ll have our preseason predictions article, but as a sneak peek I’ll share that our staff win predictions for the team average out at 73. (A reminder that in last season’s second half, which did mark significant improvement for the club, the White Sox played at just a 70-92 pace.)" SS Sox.com

• FanDuel: 64.5 wins (O -118, U -104)

• DraftKings: 65.5 wins (O -105, U -115)

• BetMGM: 65.5 wins (O -115, U -105)

• Caesars: 66.5 wins (O -110, U -110)

• Hard Rock Bet: 67.5 wins (O -120, U + 110)

(66-96 average prediction there)

Espn/Doolittle computer model predicted 61-101

(0.0% playoff odds/0.0% WS odds)

Do you bombard ESPN fangraphs pecota etc. with how they were so wrong about the Sox?

Did you ever receive a response back?

Edited yesterday at 01:40 AM1 day by caulfield12

3 hours ago, Paulie4Pres said:

Because it's just one of those things baseball teams have always done. I ask again, how often does a defensive upgrade in the OF actually impact the game? Can you think of a single instance where the team would have lost instead of winning if not for the replacement? Because I cant.

Not sure how you reach this conclusion, because you can't remember defense ? Defense has always come in 3rd place behind, hitting and pitching but great defense helps win plenty of game be it with those originally on the field when the game starts or on the field at the end as replacements.

Asking anyone to recall instances that are generally forgotten because they are extremely difficult to measure is silly . Hardly anyone ever says wow if it wasn't for that defensive replacement I don't think the guy he replaced gets to that ball. Also it's just another out in some cases but because you eliminate outs you POTENTIALLY eliminate runs. Let's say you don't make that great catch and don't get that out and a team then has a 2 out rally to win.

It's not just one of those things. Outs are important . If errors can lose you games then great defense in any inning can win them. Missing a cutoff man may not be an error but you give up extra bases and extra outs and it leads to runs. Did you forget how baseball is actually played and all the things people complain about on the margins that lose games. Every baseball player who ever played would disagree that yea baseball people are stupid it doesn't help to bring in 1 or 2 guys to help protect a lead defensively.

Can it backfire ? Of course ! Baseball is like that because no player is perfect but like with a lot of baseball and sports in general you're looking for small statistical advantages everywhere. a taller guy may rob a HR when a shorter guy wouldn't have , it's the same with catches by any fielder. A faster OF might reach a ball a slower OF wouldn't or the guy with the better jump reading the ball off the bat.

A more experienced OF might let a single drop rather than try for a spectacular catch that leads to a double or triple like we've seen from Braden too often lately. These things can happen in any inning. How often do you see a play where they trade an out for a run ? It's that small statistical advantage at the end of games that will some times make the difference.

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Not sure how you reach this conclusion, because you can't remember defense ? Defense has always come in 3rd place behind, hitting and pitching but great defense helps win plenty of game be it with those originally on the field when the game starts or on the field at the end as replacements.

Asking anyone to recall instances that are generally forgotten because they are extremely difficult to measure is silly . Hardly anyone ever says wow if it wasn't for that defensive replacement I don't think the guy he replaced gets to that ball. Also it's just another out in some cases but because you eliminate outs you POTENTIALLY eliminate runs. Let's say you don't make that great catch and don't get that out and a team then has a 2 out rally to win.

It's not just one of those things. Outs are important . If errors can lose you games then great defense in any inning can win them. Missing a cutoff man may not be an error but you give up extra bases and extra outs and it leads to runs. Did you forget how baseball is actually played and all the things people complain about on the margins that lose games. Every baseball player who ever played would disagree that yea baseball people are stupid it doesn't help to bring in 1 or 2 guys to help protect a lead defensively.

Can it backfire ? Of course ! Baseball is like that because no player is perfect but like with a lot of baseball and sports in general you're looking for small statistical advantages everywhere. a taller guy may rob a HR when a shorter guy wouldn't have , it's the same with catches by any fielder. A faster OF might reach a ball a slower OF wouldn't or the guy with the better jump reading the ball off the bat.

A more experienced OF might let a single drop rather than try for a spectacular catch that leads to a double or triple like we've seen from Braden too often lately. These things can happen in any inning. How often do you see a play where they trade an out for a run ? It's that small statistical advantage at the end of games that will some times make the difference.

We aren't talking about defense. We are talking about the entire concept of a "defensive replacement". Of course, defense is important. We aren't talking about the defense throughout the whole game here. Which is crucial if you want to win baseball games. We are talking about a guy whose entire purpose is to get put into the game in the 8th or 9th inning, in the outfield. A guy who might not even touch a baseball his entire time out there. This is not even factoring in how good or bad, defensively, the guy he is replacing is. A lot of times it's a slight upgrade.

Do people seriously believe this strategy manifests itself into more than a win every 2-3 seasons? The best outfielders in the game are worth how many wins defensively? 2-3? And that's playing pretty much every fucking game.

Edited yesterday at 02:27 AM1 day by Paulie4Pres

54 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

"Tomorrow we’ll have our preseason predictions article, but as a sneak peek I’ll share that our staff win predictions for the team average out at 73. (A reminder that in last season’s second half, which did mark significant improvement for the club, the White Sox played at just a 70-92 pace.)" SS Sox.com

• FanDuel: 64.5 wins (O -118, U -104)

• DraftKings: 65.5 wins (O -105, U -115)

• BetMGM: 65.5 wins (O -115, U -105)

• Caesars: 66.5 wins (O -110, U -110)

• Hard Rock Bet: 67.5 wins (O -120, U + 110)

(66-96 average prediction there)

Espn/Doolittle computer model predicted 61-101

(0.0% playoff odds/0.0% WS odds)

Do you bombard ESPN fangraphs pecota etc. with how they were so wrong about the Sox?

Did you ever receive a response back?

Well, I've proven my claims, you haven't done a thing except declare nonsense. Until you have receipts, my work here is done.

1 hour ago, WestEddy said:

Prediction thread. Half of respondents had the Sox with at least 92 losses. 8 with 100.

Official 2026 win prediction thread. - Page 4 - Pale Hose Talk - Soxtalk.com

me:

you:

@southsider2k5 Did you lock the prediction thread for a reason? Can you reopen to bump it?

Looks to me like the majority (15 people or 25%) voted for a 71-74 wins, with the next largest group (14 people or 18%) voting for 67-70 wins.

Edited yesterday at 02:40 AM1 day by WhiteSox2023

2 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Looks to me like the majority (15 people or 25%) voted for a 71-74 record.

But that's not the discussion. It was about people predicting more than 90 losses, which is half of the sample.

9 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

But that's not the discussion. It was about people predicting more than 90 losses, which is half of the sample.

And you apparently had them at 77 wins which doesn’t make the playoffs either. Congrats, I guess? It looks to me like no one nailed the prediction because no one voted for 83-86 or 87+ wins. I guess the 4 people that voted for 79-82 will likely be the closest.

Edited yesterday at 02:51 AM1 day by WhiteSox2023

43 minutes ago, Paulie4Pres said:

We aren't talking about defense. We are talking about the entire concept of a "defensive replacement". Of course, defense is important. We aren't talking about the defense throughout the whole game here. Which is crucial if you want to win baseball games. We are talking about a guy whose entire purpose is to get put into the game in the 8th or 9th inning, in the outfield. A guy who might not even touch a baseball his entire time out there. This is not even factoring in how good or bad, defensively, the guy he is replacing is. A lot of times it's a slight upgrade.

Do people seriously believe this strategy manifests itself into more than a win every 2-3 seasons? The best outfielders in the game are worth how many wins defensively? 2-3? And that's playing pretty much every fucking game.

Sabermatricians have gone over this a lot and say that in the 9th inning it's a sound move if you follow certain criteria. Use it in the 9th not before. Use it in the positions where range makes a difference. The argument is that managers miscalculate the math and timing of the strategy like taking out a high OBP guy in the 8th where it might make a difference in extra innings so yes you say some things that make sense but that's on the manager using it too early for the most part. The strategy itself is mathematically sound. You're not breaking any new ground here just because you're angry about it.

Edited yesterday at 03:17 AM1 day by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

2 hours ago, WestEddy said:

Prediction thread. Half of respondents had the Sox with at least 92 losses. 8 with 100.

Official 2026 win prediction thread. - Page 4 - Pale Hose Talk - Soxtalk.com

me:

you

@southsider2k5 Did you lock the prediction thread for a reason? Can you reopen to bump it?

UNLOCK IT AND SWITCH TO PUBLIC! #ReleaseTheVotes!

9 hours ago, DoUEvenShift said:

UNLOCK IT AND SWITCH TO PUBLIC! #ReleaseTheVotes!

Locking the thread means no votes switching or adding. We are going to the Supreme Court to preserve our precious rights.

16 hours ago, Paulie4Pres said:

Ok. So, it happened once and wasn't just his defense. He also wasn't a defensive replacement. He was brought in as a pinch hitter. I find this distinction pretty important. I don't think defensive replacements ever really win you a game.

Brian Anderson tiebreak game 2008. Griffey doesn’t catch final out, then who knows what happens.

4 minutes ago, fathom said:

Brian Anderson tiebreak game 2008. Griffey doesn’t catch final out, then who knows what happens.

To be fair, most managers aren't stupid enough to play 38 year old Ken Griffey Jr in center field. That also would have been a single with nobody else on base and 2 outs.