The House of Cards Dilemma

[JUGGERNAUT]

Since 2001, Jose has 370 DP's in 499 games at SS or .742 DP/gm

Uribe has 264 DP's in 354 games at SS or .745 DP/gm

That's hardly a significant statistical edge and could well fall within the realm of luck.

 

This has to be a joke. Jose has played with Crede all that time. This Uribe's first year playing with Crede. Joe makes a difference in the DP equation. Plus you are ignoring assists not to mention Jose's throwing errors. Right now my Sox fan friend Uribe is on a pace to exceed Val's 2000 numbers in both DP's & assists. Until he falls off that pace I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. If he was so inept at getting to balls as you say then statistically we would see more GB hits on our pitchers. Look it up. It's not the case.

 

What I find the most irrational of these pessimists is how they ignore history. The White Sox have finished 2nd 3 yrs in a row because they couldn't overcome injuries to star players. The worst being 2001, 2004. If those teams remain healthy we finish 1st. There's no doubt in my mind about that. So if I were to argue on the side of the pessimists I would point to the injury curse that has plagued this team. I would say it's more likely we will lose star players (Hernandez, Everett) than keep them healthy. Because that's what history shows us. I would never argue a losing season based on the talent level of the team remaining healthy.

 

Finally, winning a division is not just about the White Sox. The other ALC play matters as well. They are lagging far behind in the intangibles. The Twins amongst the leaders in GIDPs. Is there any reason for me to believe that any other ALC team is capable of winning more games than the White Sox right now? No. All of them have had substantial changes to their roster that effect team speed, hitting, pitching, & defense. There's no reason to ignore their play to date.

[SleepyWhiteSox]

Whoa good stuff from both Juggs and Cerb.

 

I agree with half of your post.

[CWSGuy406]

I agree with half of your post.

 

Personally, All I have to look at is one guys judging defense based on double plays...

[ISF]

 

 

Rowand never hit .300-30-100. He had 60+ RBIs last year.

Rowand is a guy the Sox developed who has produced at every level of the organization. He hit .311 last year with 20+ HRs while doing an above average job of managing the most important spot in the OF.

 

His contract is extremely reasonable, if he only puts up 15 HRs and 50 RBIs every year while batting .275-.280, he will be worth every penny.

 

Also, Carlos Lee put this team on his back in the 2nd half last year. No Frank, no Maggs. To say all his hits/HRs came in garbage time is ridiculous. But then, hating on players the minute they leave is a proud trademark of this organization.

 

I have absolutely no problem with critical analysis, and some of your points are very valid. But the idea Aaron Rowand was a one-year wonder is a large stretch, and the Lee-bashing quite simply damages your credibility.

[3E8]

We will have more room for error when it comes to our team OBP if our team ERA stays atop the league leaders, which I think it will barring injuries. I don't think they necessarily both have to rank amongst the best for us to make the playoffs.

 

There are currently more teams in/tied for first place with a team OBP that ranks within 20-30th in the league (4) than there are teams with a OBP that ranks within 1-10th in the league (2).

[JUGGERNAUT]

There are two intangible categories where we re not the best in the ALC: OF assists & errors. KC has 6, Min has 3, Sox 2, Det 1, Cle 0. I don't think we need to fear KC (20 errors)

 

How good your team is defensively is a measure of the R's you give up, your DP's, your IF assists, your OF assists, & errors%. We lead the ALC in all but the last 2. We lag Min by 1 in OFA, & 2 in errors. Only 2 teams in the majors have given up fewer R's than the Sox. IF assists & DP's make the difference between winning & losing when you're not scoring many runs.

 

Of course are inability to score R's is another myth. The Sox are 14th in R scored.

2nd in the ALC Behind Detroit (7th). So we are scoring more R's than Minny & giving up fewer R's than Minny & yet were only going to play .400 the rest of the year. . If we remain healthy that's crazy.

Edited April 25, 2005 by JUGGERNAUT

[upnorthsox]

This has to be a joke. Jose has played with Crede all that time. This Uribe's first year playing with Crede. Joe makes a difference in the DP equation. Plus you are ignoring assists not to mention Jose's throwing errors. Right now my Sox fan friend Uribe is on a pace to exceed Val's 2000 numbers in both DP's & assists. Until he falls off that pace I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. If he was so inept at getting to balls as you say then statistically we would see more GB hits on our pitchers. Look it up. It's not the case.

 

So I'm supposed to compare Jose's full yr to Uribe's 18 games? Now I understand what you mean by irrational.

 

Btw, I think Uribe is a pretty darn good SS and I didn't have to manipulate the stats or trash the other guy to come to that conclusion.

[ISF]

Uribe's da man!

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

Since 2001, Jose has 370 DP's in 499 games at SS or .742 DP/gm

 

Uribe has 264 DP's in 354 games at SS or .745 DP/gm

 

That's hardly a significant statistical edge and could well fall within the realm of luck.

 

I'll compare their arms just as soon as I see Juan get to a ball deep in the hole and make a throw like Jose did often.

 

 

GAAH!!

 

 

Forget about Jose f***ing Valentin. He's gone. Does not play here anymore. Wears a Dodgers uniform now. The guy we got there now, Uribe, is every bit the player Valentin was except for the HR numbers but you know what? That's counterbalanced by the fact that he doesn't K 4 times in a game.

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Oh and Uribe makes FAR less money than Valentin does.

Edited April 25, 2005 by NUKE_CLEVELAND

[winninguglyin83]

things will slow down. We all know that.

 

But the pitching should be good enough to avoid any lengthy losing streaks.

 

Our starting staff has to be one of the four best in the AL. Our relievers are solid -- and I'd upgrade that to better than solid if Shingo gets it figured out. Cotts concerns me, but we've got a few guys in the minors we can try if Cotts falls apart.

 

I also worry about our obp and batting average.

 

Dye looks very bad. A Row looks frustrated, dropping his head before he runs to first base, just like Konerko did two seasons ago.

 

Those are the two guys who MUST produce for this team to win.

 

 

I'm not as down on Rowand as Cerb. He's not going to go .300-30-100. But he could go .280-22-85. And play good defense. I'm not as certain about Dye. He looks like he's struggling against a good fastball. Not a good sign.

 

Hopefully A.J., Crede and Carl can have excellent years.

[Steff]

Aaron is frustrated.. but his attitude is still awesome. He leaves each at bat behind.. that, IMO, is a very good thing. He'll snap out of this funk. Couple more weeks... He'll be fine.

[winninguglyin83]

I enjoy watching A Row play.

 

wants to win.

 

willing to hit to right field, bunt, run into walls.

 

I'm not worried about Rowand.

 

But I am concerned about Dye.

 

Maybe there will be a Brian Anderson sighting.

 

He is kicking butt at Charlotte, a single short of a cycle yesterday.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

I enjoy watching A Row play.

 

wants to win.

 

willing to hit to right field, bunt, run into walls.

 

I'm not worried about Rowand.

 

But I am concerned about Dye.

 

Maybe there will be a Brian Anderson sighting.

 

He is kicking butt at Charlotte, a single short of a cycle yesterday.

 

 

Dye is a concern of mine.....not a worry. If he's still in a funk like this in June or July then it'll become a worry. Till then.......anybody can have a bad month. It's still April after all.

[JUGGERNAUT]

What you've come to expect from me of the years is that if I find a stat I don't like I will find another to weaken it Here we go: Errors.

 

I mentioned the Sox were 2 behind Minny but I didn't mention the difference in TC's & PO's. The Sox have 745 TC's (4th) to Minny's 649 (30th). The Sox have 519 PO's (6th) to Minny's 450 (29th). Needless to say Minny is living on the K-out right now to win games. When Minny records that many PO's with that many TC's let's look at the error totals.

 

The mean for errors among the top 6 teams in TC's & PO's is 13. The Sox have 14. Needless to say the White Sox lead the ALC in both TC"s & PO's.

 

For the record I was not putting down Jose. His Assists, DP's, TC's, & PO's far outweighed his errors in 2000 & were a big part of our success that year. All that I've said is that Uribe is filling that role on the 2005 Sox.

 

Uribe 05: 153 IP. 1.86 IP/TC, 7.28 IP/PO, 2.63 IP/A, 51 IP/E, 12.153 IN/DP

JoseV00: 1212 IP. 1.66 IP/TC, 5.17 IP/PO, 2.65 IP/A, 33.6 IP/E, 10.27 IN/DP

Uribe SS: .972F% 5.16RF .847ZR (career #'s at SS)

JoseV 00: .950F% 5.12RF .847ZR (best Sox year)

[Gene Honda Civic]

Jugger,

 

Can you at least acknowledge that fielding stats are pitching dependent? Double plays should almost entirely be credited to the pitching staff. Garland's got a career high GB/FB ratio. El Duque, a fly-ball pitcher, is pitching like a sinkerballer. The entire Sox staff is putting the ball in play on the ground. Comparing Uribe(with the small sample size GB all-stars) and Valentin (with the smoke-and-mirrors 2000 staff) is apples and oranges.

[EvilJester99]

Man all these friggin stats are begining to make my head hurt...

[Cerbaho-WG]

Aha, we've finally moved past the "Cerb, you f***ing pessimist" (which I am, won't deny that) to actual conversation which I hoped my post would bring. Keep it going, I've got finals to study for.

[Cerbaho-WG]

Also, before I start studying, I'd like to quote myself here, because some people have been taking my words out of context:

 

It is entirely possible that once Jon Garland stops pitching like an alien in the form of a Kevin Brown in his prime, and Mark Buehrle stops dominating on a consistant basis (which will happen), the White Sox may trudge along with a .400 W-L record for the remainder of the year.

--

I did not say the White Sox will take on the form of the 2003 Detroit Tigers, I'm just saying that there is valid reasoning for some people thinking that the Sox could fall off the face of the Earth. At the same token, Jugg or anyone could argue that the Sox will play .600 baseball for the rest of the season. It boils down to the framing of the issue, and I personally think that the Sox will play around .500 ball for the rest of the year (would lean more towards .475). Will it be enough to win the division? Hell, that's what makes this fun.

[whitesoxjr27]

i dont post much here. i like to read rather then post. so can i stop reading all the b****ing and enjoy the site again? i'm not being a asshole but lets be happy the sox are winning and take it one game at a time. no more what if's.

[JUGGERNAUT]

Jugger,

 

Can you at least acknowledge that fielding stats are pitching dependent?  Double plays should almost entirely be credited to the pitching staff.  Garland's got a career high GB/FB ratio.  El Duque, a fly-ball pitcher, is pitching like a sinkerballer.  The entire Sox staff is putting the ball in play on the ground.  Comparing Uribe(with the small sample size GB all-stars) and Valentin (with the smoke-and-mirrors 2000 staff) is apples and oranges.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Definitely some credit goes to the staff for inducing GB's. I wouldn't shy away from giving AJ some of the credit as well. But if you look at some of the plays Uribe is making if it were not for his arm strength & ability to fire rockets those DP's aren't turned & those jam situations give up R's. Many of the Uribe DP's have been tight so if you replace him with someone else they might not get turned. You can look at the DP thread to see just how important many of them were. Now maybe the Sox still come back & win those games. They have done that in some games. But to me that's not the point.

 

I can't think of anything easier to boost a pitcher's confidence than the knowledge that if they throw strikes & keep the ball down Uribe & company will get the outs & help them get out of jams. That leads to pitchers who will become more aggresive as the season goes on & challenge the hitters more. El Duque was 8-2 in 15 starts with the NYY's last year. I'm sure some of that was defense related. I'm not going to knock these guys or believe the worse in them until there's reason to believe it.

 

Look at some other pitching stats:

HRA Sox 7th (14), Cle 2nd (11), Min 25th (24). DBA Sox 15th (32), Min 1st (16).

It's not like the Sox are pitching so far over their heads not to believe in the wins.

They have given up more 2B's than any other ALC team. Yet they are able to keep those runs from scoring better than any other ALC team.

 

It goes w/out saying that the HRA/gm avg is going to increase in the warmer months. It always does. But it should go w/out saying that the Sox have a lineup to hit more HR's in those months as well. HR Sox 10th (20). Min 12th (18). Despite the struggles of Dye, Rowand, AJ, & Koney (Everett's digressing as well now), we still lead the ALC in HR's. So why shouldn't we expect more HR's when they heat up?

 

Finally, I mentioned this before the season started. The new players are more road warriors than road bums. Especially Pods. I think that's going to carry us through the tough times when guys have poor starts. I don't worry about this team playing at the Cell. We have proven success there. That won't change.

[JUGGERNAUT]

BTW, dating back to Jul 04, Garland now has 16 quality-winnable starts in his last 22 starts. 6+IP, <= 4R given up. Most of them were <= 3R. I'm tending towards the belief that the new defense playing behind him has made him even better.

[SoxFan1]

BTW, dating back to Jul 04, Garland now has 16 quality-winnable starts in his last 22 starts.  6+IP,

We all know Garland is a ground-ball pitcher. We know Crede got a lock on 3rd defensively. Uribe has been above-average IMO. Gooch and Willie are good defensive 2nd-men and PK can flash some leather when needed. I feel confident with our defense and IMHO, when I see a grounder hit on the infield, I EXPECT the D to make the play. When was the last time we could have said that about a White Sox team?

[danman31]

A lot of good points except I don't see the team playing .400 ball. Carlos Lee was a dumb player period. I've been saying that and people just ignored me. Good to see I wasn't the only one who thought so! I don't think everything will fall apart. I'm thinking that the Sox, worst case scenario, will play .500 ball the rest of the way. That would put them at 87 wins, which is by no means beyond reason. All it takes is a little better than that and the Sox have 90 wins.

[Steff]

i dont post much here. i like to read rather then post. so can i stop reading all the b****ing and enjoy the site again? i'm not being a asshole but lets be happy the sox are winning and take it one game at a time. no more what if's.

 

 

If you've been reading for any length of time you'd know that no.. it wont stop. That little "x" in the upper right hand corner is your friend at times like these.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

The problem with a house of cards is that it doesnt have a solid foundation. Argue all you want about the position players, the soild foundation in baseball is the strength of the pitching staff.

 

Garland has matured (he's only 25). Buerhle has been and always will be Buerhle so what makes you think he won't continue to dominate this year is beyond me (32 straight quality starts). 1 through 5 our starting staff is better than it's ever been in recent years. The same can be said of the bullpen.

 

A house of cards always will fall from the slighest bump. The Sox " House" though weak in areas has a solid foundation and will continue to stay strong.