Unconventional Offseason Idea/Strategy

[JohnCangelosi]

Everyone is saying our first line of priority this offseason HAS to be upgrading the bullpen (poll on whitesox.com) and it seems to be the case here as well at SoxTalk.com...

 

First of all, if you understand the strategy of "find out where everyone is going and go in the opposite direction" you understand it's usually the proper thing to do in many situations.

 

I'll give an example just so I don't have to further explain that statement.

 

Most people are dead broke. 5% of the people out there control 90%+ of the wealth. Point: Don't follow the herd mentality of getting a job, get taxed everyway till Sunday and then hoping you'll have enough at the end of the day. You won't. The herd tells you "get a job, work your way up, see what happens". Nonsense.

 

Same thing goes for "consensus thinking" on many different subjects all across the board from the stock market to baseball.

 

What if, instead of investing in 2-3 more bullpen arms we took the risk of thinking that Mac and Thornton are in for a good year next year? Perhaps we sign one of the Japanese bullpen prospects but just keep it there and spend our money elsewhere??? It seems to me that quite often bullpens can be great one year and suck the next (see 2005 for Cliff Politte, Neil Cotts and then 06)

 

Last year was obviously a disaster in the pen and no question it was the worst in baseball for various reasons. I do think, however, when healthy (like Mac) these guys can be really tough. And I don't think we give up on them yet and completely retool this thing.

 

Honestly, and I know am very much in the minority here, but I am OK with us just picking up one arm (perhaps from Japan) for our Pen and then addressing the other issues we need taken care of such as getting a second baseman and CF through FA and trades...

 

OK, so there it is...let me have it... ;-)

[Rowand44]

Everyone is saying our first line of priority this offseason HAS to be upgrading the bullpen (poll on whitesox.com) and it seems to be the case here as well at SoxTalk.com...

 

First of all, if you understand the strategy of "find out where everyone is going and go in the opposite direction" you understand it's usually the proper thing to do in many situations.

 

I'll give an example just so I don't have to further explain that statement.

 

Most people are dead broke. 5% of the people out there control 90%+ of the wealth. Point: Don't follow the herd mentality of getting a job, get taxed everyway till Sunday and then hoping you'll have enough at the end of the day. You won't. The herd tells you "get a job, work your way up, see what happens". Nonsense.

 

Same thing goes for "consensus thinking" on many different subjects all across the board from the stock market to baseball.

 

What if, instead of investing in 2-3 more bullpen arms we took the risk of thinking that Mac and Thornton are in for a good year next year? Perhaps we sign one of the Japanese bullpen prospects but just keep it there and spend our money elsewhere??? It seems to me that quite often bullpens can be great one year and suck the next (see 2005 for Cliff Politte, Neil Cotts and then 06)

 

Last year was obviously a disaster in the pen and no question it was the worst in baseball for various reasons. I do think, however, when healthy (like Mac) these guys can be really tough. And I don't think we give up on them yet and completely retool this thing.

 

Honestly, and I know am very much in the minority here, but I am OK with us just picking up one arm (perhaps from Japan) for our Pen and then addressing the other issues we need taken care of such as getting a second baseman and CF through FA and trades...

 

OK, so there it is...let me have it... ;-)

More people agree with you then you think, I know I do.

 

I have no problem adding another arm or two but I really don't think this pen needs a huge overhaul. I have absolutely no problem going into the season with Jenks, Mac, Thornton, Wasserman and Boone as 5 members of the pen.

[max power]

I think the consensus here is that there are at least a few holes that must be filled, not one more than the other. Its all muddled up because of the uribe signing but we need a CF, a leadoff hitter who can play short or LF, and some arms in the pen. We could then trade someone away, crede or uribe or trade one of those two to get that player.

 

Actually the lead off hitter could play CF too. We'd still need to finalize the OF and infield. You get the picture. I haven't seen anyone here say bullpen is far and away the sox most pressing need.

Edited November 10, 2007 by max power

[Gregory Pratt]

I have a problem with that: Thornton's lost some velocity but more importantly, everybody knows he's got a straight fastball and no secondary pitches. He's not destined to be all-that good and I love me some Thornton, but it's just not going to happen for him. MacDougal is a borderline guy, Wasserman is a ROOGY at best but I don't even think he's long for that role since the only things that make him special are his work ethic and throwing motion/windup (and that's not really a recipe for long-term success), Logan's a LOOGY and then you've got Jenks, who is good but a wild card and some long reliever? I think we need another setup man. But I really think we could probably use more relievers.

 

Not that I'd go out and overpay for them. It's a sucky situation.

[knightni]

I believe that Logan's starting to grow past the LOOGy label.

[Rowand44]

I believe that Logan's starting to grow past the LOOGy label.

I'd look at the stats again, my friend.

[WilliamTell]

I'd agree wtih you, I may be hopeful but I don't think Mac or Thornton are going to have that high of an ERA next year. I think if Wasserman can pitch the same way, and I'm hoping Logan can continue to improve. Jenks should be Jenks still. There are a lot of ifs going into next year, but if we can get those 5 to peform well, and hopefully another couple of players, whether by having breakout years or signing a guy, we'll be in good shape.

[DBAHO]

I still say we need at least 2 upgrades in there.

 

Personally I won't be banking on BOTH Thornton and MacDougal to rebound. Mike has some mental issues he needs to get over, and Thornton needs to work on his breaking balls as Pratt alluded to.

 

I'd target 1 via trade, and sign 1 out of Japan.

 

What would majorly help though is if a pitcher such as Oneli Perez could step up in Spring Training, claim a role, and produce.

[Rowand44]

I still say we need at least 2 upgrades in there.

 

Personally I won't be banking on BOTH Thornton and MacDougal to rebound. Mike has some mental issues he needs to get over, and Thornton needs to work on his breaking balls as Pratt alluded to.

 

I'd target 1 via trade, and sign 1 out of Japan.

 

What would majorly help though is if a pitcher such as Oneli Perez could step up in Spring Training, claim a role, and produce.

Here's the problem with that, no matter who we sign they're going to be just as big of question marks as Mac and Matt. I'll take my chances with Matt and Mac because of their arms over most. That being said, signing a japanese reliever is ok with me as most of them seem to have success in their first year here.

[knightni]

I'd look at the stats again, my friend.

So, right-handers are Ty Cobb off of him.

 

 

Like that matters.

[witesoxfan]

I still like Aardsma too, if that means anything

[NorthSideSox72]

Jenks is obviously solid (though you never know about that repaired part), Logan and Wassermann have proven very effective as a LOOGY/ROOGY pair. Those are the three I feel comfortable with. Thornton shows flashes in 2007, and had a solid 2006, so I wouldn't be opposed to him. But I don't want to go past those 4 at most. Mac will never put it together, in my opinion - I don't think he has the mental makeup for it.

 

I'd like to see the Sox pick up at least one decent reliever, ideally a setup type guy (I am just not sure Thornton can be that). Maybe a second. If they get just one, then open up slot #6 to the best of the field of fireballers from AA and AAA (Day, Aadrsma, Hernandez, etc.) in an open audition. A bullpen like:

 

Jenks

Thornton

Logan

Wassermann

*A Qualls-like guy or some other decent, experienced reliever

*One of Day, Aardsma, Hernandez or some other guy from inside the system

 

Would have a decent chance of being good.

 

[Buehrle>Wood]

Everyone is saying our first line of priority this offseason HAS to be upgrading the bullpen (poll on whitesox.com) and it seems to be the case here as well at SoxTalk.com...

 

First of all, if you understand the strategy of "find out where everyone is going and go in the opposite direction" you understand it's usually the proper thing to do in many situations.

 

I'll give an example just so I don't have to further explain that statement.

 

Most people are dead broke. 5% of the people out there control 90%+ of the wealth. Point: Don't follow the herd mentality of getting a job, get taxed everyway till Sunday and then hoping you'll have enough at the end of the day. You won't. The herd tells you "get a job, work your way up, see what happens". Nonsense.

 

Same thing goes for "consensus thinking" on many different subjects all across the board from the stock market to baseball.

 

What if, instead of investing in 2-3 more bullpen arms we took the risk of thinking that Mac and Thornton are in for a good year next year? Perhaps we sign one of the Japanese bullpen prospects but just keep it there and spend our money elsewhere??? It seems to me that quite often bullpens can be great one year and suck the next (see 2005 for Cliff Politte, Neil Cotts and then 06)

 

Last year was obviously a disaster in the pen and no question it was the worst in baseball for various reasons. I do think, however, when healthy (like Mac) these guys can be really tough. And I don't think we give up on them yet and completely retool this thing.

 

Honestly, and I know am very much in the minority here, but I am OK with us just picking up one arm (perhaps from Japan) for our Pen and then addressing the other issues we need taken care of such as getting a second baseman and CF through FA and trades...

 

OK, so there it is...let me have it... ;-)

That's always been Kenny's philosophy it seems, just throw a bunch of arms in the bullpen, skilled or not, and see what happens. Last year was really the only year I can remember it being a failure. But failure is an understatement here.

 

I want to see KW go out and sign a couple guys just to be safe. There are guys out there with conistent track records in the 'pen believ it or not.

[Vance Law]

Wasserman is a ROOGY at best but I don't even think he's long for that role since the only things that make him special are his work ethic and throwing motion/windup (and that's not really a recipe for long-term success)

 

Chad Bradford

 

[Balta1701]

I have no problem with...and in fact based on the contracts we handed out and their performances last year I think we have little choice but to start the bullpen with:

 

Jenks

Wasserman

Logan

Thor

MMac

 

Whether we like the last 2 or not, they're under contract. And whether we think the middle 2 are adequate or not, they did their jobs last year.

 

But, either way...that's only a 5 man pen. And our other options are guys who failed last year; Aardsma, Masset, etc. For this to be even a complete bullpen, we're missing at least 1 more right handed arm. And it's possible we'll need to find 2 of them. Of course, Floyd or Masset could wind up there by default if the team doesn't want to lose them, but even with a long guy out there, I can't see how we can get around needing to add 1 more righty setup man.

[Dick Allen]

I have no problem with...and in fact based on the contracts we handed out and their performances last year I think we have little choice but to start the bullpen with:

 

Jenks

Wasserman

Logan

Thor

MMac

 

Whether we like the last 2 or not, they're under contract. And whether we think the middle 2 are adequate or not, they did their jobs last year.

 

But, either way...that's only a 5 man pen. And our other options are guys who failed last year; Aardsma, Masset, etc. For this to be even a complete bullpen, we're missing at least 1 more right handed arm. And it's possible we'll need to find 2 of them. Of course, Floyd or Masset could wind up there by default if the team doesn't want to lose them, but even with a long guy out there, I can't see how we can get around needing to add 1 more righty setup man.

Thornton has only been good 1 year. He has control issues. Maybe he's good in 2008, maybe he's bad.

Logan should only face lefties

MacDougal can't throw strikes. Keep him if you can't get anything for him and see what he does in the spring, but counting on him for big things would be foolish.

Wasserman may be alright, he also may have an ERA around 6.00. A decent extra guy, certainly not someone you want to pencil in for 70 appearances.

You could just leave the bullpen alone and hope for the best, and also hope that guys like Aaardsma, Masset, and even Sisco perform how you expected them to in 2007. The problem is, if that blows up in your face, JR would have to take out the axe. If KW makes moves and brings in guys who have a history of being good relievers, if they don't work out, he won't get blamed. You can't get rid of everybody, but 2 new guys would be nice, guys that throw strikes, and then hope one or two of the 2007 flops become serviceable, and the bullpen can be decent again. Its been beyond awful the last 2 seasons. Obviously, there is a lot of time to get things done. I think the organization would be making a huge mistake if they expect bounce-back seasons from too many guys. The team has been bad now for a season and a half. People remember 90 wins in 2006, which I suppose if you don't mind 3rd place, is nice. The other part of that was the White Sox were below .500 the second half of 2006. I don't know how long losing continues before you conclude its not a fluke.

 

[Balta1701]

Thornton has only been good 1 year. He has control issues. Maybe he's good in 2008, maybe he's bad.

Logan should only face lefties

MacDougal can't throw strikes. Keep him if you can't get anything for him and see what he does in the spring, but counting on him for big things would be foolish.

As I said with both of them...whether you like them or not...they're under contract now. Which means it's simply a waste of money to dump them.

[NorthSideSox72]

As I said with both of them...whether you like them or not...they're under contract now. Which means it's simply a waste of money to dump them.

Except in MacDougal's case, I think he's likely to be more damaging than most we'd bring in. Plus he's probably still seen as high potential by others in the league, so if you can, I think you try to trade him.

 

[Balta1701]

Except in MacDougal's case, I think he's likely to be more damaging than most we'd bring in. Plus he's probably still seen as high potential by others in the league, so if you can, I think you try to trade him.

Depending on what you're trading him for, I could get into that. If you can get a good return, sure...but the calculation you have to do is MMac on one side with his higher risk but affordable contract and on the other side maybe going 4/$20 for someone like Linebrink and having whatever you got for MMac. Now, that might make sense if you get back a good return or if you can find another reliever somewhere cheaper than that, but I really don't see that many right now.

[NorthSideSox72]

Depending on what you're trading him for, I could get into that. If you can get a good return, sure...but the calculation you have to do is MMac on one side with his higher risk but affordable contract and on the other side maybe going 4/$20 for someone like Linebrink and having whatever you got for MMac. Now, that might make sense if you get back a good return or if you can find another reliever somewhere cheaper than that, but I really don't see that many right now.

I guess I'm more willing to go the gambling route based on cheap contracts for Thornton, Logan and Wassermann than I am for Mac. You are taking a chance with all of them of course - I just think MacD has show he is less consistent, and more likely to fold like a lawn chair under pressure, than the others.

 

[Gregory Pratt]

Chad Bradford

 

Certainly, there are exceptions to everything but I don't feel "comfortable" having a right-hander in my bullpen who doesn't have much more to his repoitoire than work ethic and delivery-deception.

[gosox41]

Certainly, there are exceptions to everything but I don't feel "comfortable" having a right-hander in my bullpen who doesn't have much more to his repoitoire than work ethic and delivery-deception.

 

 

It beats power pitchers who are known to throw one pitch that seems to come in pretty straight and once in awhile hits the strike zone.

 

 

Bob

[Gregory Pratt]

It beats power pitchers who are known to throw one pitch that seems to come in pretty straight and once in awhile hits the strike zone.

Bob

 

I don't think it "beats" it. It's one of those cases where both pitchers are generally no good.

[NorthSideSox72]

Wassermann is successful because he has a lot of life on his pitches. Case in point - his GO/AO of 3.46 was among the best for relievers in all of baseball. Oh, and during his minor league career, his home run rate against was 1 HR for every 41 innings pitched. That's about 1 per season for a reliever in his role. Those numbers have little to do with delivery/deception or work ethic. It means his pitches have a lot of downward and/or angular motion. The fact that he has a goofy delivery and can hit 90 with it (unusual for a guy with that motion) are helpful, but they aren't going to result in that stat. Its easy to assume that weird delivery is his key when you see him pitch, but the stats say otherwise.

 

Pitching in the Cell, having a pitcher who excels at jamming hitters and making them hit it on the ground is a very good fit.

 

[Gregory Pratt]

Northside,

 

We'll wait and see. I just happen to think Wasserman's a junkballer with a funky delivery who will not find much success once the league adjusts to him; I will admit he has some decent stuff and good life. I do really like Wasserman and want him to succeed.