Official 2010-2011 NCAA Basketball Thread

[Jenksismyhero]

Nolan Smith is returning to Duke. If Singler returns, they're going to be far and away the #1 team in the preseason polls.

 

I'd be shocked if Singler came back. Why not leave while on top? He's not going to increase his draft stock. He's a top 20 pick now, and he'll be that way next year too. I think even if he comes back Duke won't be back in the Final Four. Despite how well they played, I think they backed into the championship game this year, not really beating anyone of importance until Butler.

[danman31]

Florida doesn't deserve the love, especially over better potential teams like Illinois (who should be in the 10-15 range). Ditto for UNC, who may have all the talent in the world, but talent means nothing if they don't mesh (see: UNC, 2009-2010). Kansas and Kentucky will be lucky to be in the top 25, let alone the top 10. Too much talent leaving.

It's interesting that UNC's talent isn't supposed to mesh because it didn't last year, but Illinois' is supposed to despite not meshing last year either. Both teams will be better, but it's hard to pick against UNC with SO much talent again. Kansas will be fine as has been said. They're the early favorite to win the Big 12 again. They're so deep and Collins is quite overrated, they won't miss him too much.

[Jenksismyhero]

It's interesting that UNC's talent isn't supposed to mesh because it didn't last year, but Illinois' is supposed to despite not meshing last year either. Both teams will be better, but it's hard to pick against UNC with SO much talent again. Kansas will be fine as has been said. They're the early favorite to win the Big 12 again. They're so deep and Collins is quite overrated, they won't miss him too much.

 

I think there's a major difference. Illinois' team did mesh, they just didn't play well in a lot of games, and they relied on some pretty average to below average players (including freshman). Those average players will be replaced by 5 star recruits (Richmond and Leonard in particular, who are every bit as good as the other top 50 incoming freshman), whereas UNC was just downright awful for the entire season despite having highly rated players. I totally expect UNC to be back next year, but i dunno about elite level.

 

The more I think about it too, i'm not sure I buy the argument that OSU will be better than Illinois next year, given that one team will return it's starting 5 while adding highly rated freshman, and the other loses the national player of the year and gains some highly rated freshman. I think Turner is going to be a huge loss to that team, more than people expect.

 

I think Kansas will be fine too, but they also lost Aldrich, probably the best center in the country. Yes, the have a lot of talent on the bench, but they haven't played as many meaningful minutes, so I dunno, I expect them to take a step back.

[fathom]

I think there's a major difference. Illinois' team did mesh, they just didn't play well in a lot of games, and they relied on some pretty average to below average players (including freshman). Those average players will be replaced by 5 star recruits (Richmond and Leonard in particular, who are every bit as good as the other top 50 incoming freshman), whereas UNC was just downright awful for the entire season despite having highly rated players. I totally expect UNC to be back next year, but i dunno about elite level.

 

Leonard's not going to do much during his freshman season statistically, and Richmond is likely to be more of an average statistical player than some offensive dynamo (I still haven't seen him it more than one jump shot in any game that's been on TV, and that's something he's going to need to do in Illinois' motion offense). Someone like Harrison Barnes is much more likely to come into UNC and just light it up. I'd also take UNC's bigs of Zeller and Henson over Davis/Tisdale any day. Losing Davis, Thompson, and Ginyard is definitely a positive for UNC.

Edited April 6, 2010 by fathom

[danman31]

I think there's a major difference. Illinois' team did mesh, they just didn't play well in a lot of games, and they relied on some pretty average to below average players (including freshman). Those average players will be replaced by 5 star recruits (Richmond and Leonard in particular, who are every bit as good as the other top 50 incoming freshman), whereas UNC was just downright awful for the entire season despite having highly rated players. I totally expect UNC to be back next year, but i dunno about elite level.

I think you're overstating the difference between UNC and Illinois this year. They weren't that far apart. The ACC is deeper top to bottom and UNC still had some good wins during the course of the year (OSU, MSU, @ Wake). Also, Illinois' team chemistry was just awful. McCamey b****ed and moaned, he wasn't the only one I saw do that. When multiple players are talking back to the coach in big games you can easily argue the team didn't 'mesh.'

[Brian]

Leonard's not going to do much during his freshman season statistically, and Richmond is likely to be more of an average statistical player than some offensive dynamo (I still haven't seen him it more than one jump shot in any game that's been on TV, and that's something he's going to need to do in Illinois' motion offense). Someone like Harrison Barnes is much more likely to come into UNC and just light it up. I'd also take UNC's bigs of Zeller and Henson over Davis/Tisdale any day. Losing Davis, Thompson, and Ginyard is definitely a positive for UNC.

 

I think you underestimate Meyers. I like that when he is around the basket, he dunks everything. It's easy for him and I know guys will be stronger and bigger in Big Ten, but Tisdale goes up and tries to lay shots up and misses his fair share of bunnies. He could be a surprise next year.

 

As for Richmond, points won't be as easy for him to come by but he plays above the rim and will be most helpful next year on the glass.

[dasox24]

Personally, I'd put them in the next tier below the list I posted with teams like Villanova, Vanderbilt, Syracuse (assuming Johnson goes) and Tennessee. They could be quite good, but a lot depends on one of Richmond, Paul and Richardson producing relatively consistently since their frontcourt can be quite unpredictable.

I think that's pretty fair. Losing Chism and Prince will be hurt a bit, but bringing in Tobias Harris (and who knows, maybe Josh Selby) should offset that talent-wise. Plus, now that Brian Williams finally realized he's 6'11'' and all of a sudden became a leader too (how did that happen??), he should a nice presence down low for us. I think one of our biggest question marks is former McDonald's All-American Scotty Hopson. He can be awesome, but disappeared in too many games last year (especially in the tournament).

[ZoomSlowik]

One thing that I think is interesting is how many teams seem to have a legitimate chance at the top-10. In looking over the various rosters, I came up with about 20 teams I considered, and that didn't really count some potentially awesome mid-majors like Dayton and Xavier.

 

Looking back to last year, once you got to 11 you had teams with some pretty serious question marks like Cal, Washington, UConn, Michigan and Oklahoma, not to mention UNC and Texas in the top-5. Granted there doesn't appear to be a Kansas-level team this year and a couple of teams like UNC, Kansas and Kentucky seem to fit that "could blow up horribly" mold from last year, it seems like there's more decent-to-solid teams for next year. Of course a few of them will probably get killed by the NBA, but it looks like an interesting season.

[Palehosefan]

One thing that I think is interesting is how many teams seem to have a legitimate chance at the top-10. In looking over the various rosters, I came up with about 20 teams I considered, and that didn't really count some potentially awesome mid-majors like Dayton and Xavier.

 

Looking back to last year, once you got to 11 you had teams with some pretty serious question marks like Cal, Washington, UConn, Michigan and Oklahoma, not to mention UNC and Texas in the top-5. Granted there doesn't appear to be a Kansas-level team this year and a couple of teams like UNC, Kansas and Kentucky seem to fit that "could blow up horribly" mold from last year, it seems like there's more decent-to-solid teams for next year. Of course a few of them will probably get killed by the NBA, but it looks like an interesting season.

 

Yep, I said in the national championship thread that about 20-25 teams have a legit chance this next year at a title. Overall the talent level between the elite and other schools should be decreased again, especially with Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, etc being worse than this past season. The only team I could see being head and shoulders above others would be Duke if they keep Singler

 

Two teams from the MWC could make a push towards the top 10, BYU went 30-6 last year and return just about everyone and UNLV went 25-9 and returns everyone. One of those two will likely replace New Mexico in the top 10-15 standings this year.

[ZoomSlowik]

Yep, I said in the national championship thread that about 20-25 teams have a legit chance this next year at a title. Overall the talent level between the elite and other schools should be decreased again, especially with Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, etc being worse than this past season. The only team I could see being head and shoulders above others would be Duke if they keep Singler

 

Two teams from the MWC could make a push towards the top 10, BYU went 30-6 last year and return just about everyone and UNLV went 25-9 and returns everyone. One of those two will likely replace New Mexico in the top 10-15 standings this year.

I agree with you, though I'm not even sure Duke can do it. I think OSU and UNC probably have the most raw talent, but they have some issues to iron out that might take a while.

 

I believe Jimmer Fredette entered his name in the NBA draft without hiring an agent (hard to tell, the lists I've seen seem to conflict). If he goes back, which he should, they'll be quite good. UNLV looks solid too, and I wouldn't totally write off New Mexico. Yes, they lose Martinez, but as of now they get Hobson, Gary and McDonald back and they'll add Drew Gordon from UCLA. That's a pretty nice core.

[Heads22]

I love seeing all the optimism in here....my team Georgia Tech will suck. Going from one of the best frontcourts in the country to one of the worst, but I'm sure Paul Hewitt will coach them up!

 

Hey, I'm a fan of the 11th place team in the Big 12, losing 3 starters (including their two best players). I'm still better off than a DePaul fan, but not by much.

[Sonik22]

SIU should just cut the program if KD and Booker leave. I give up.

[LittleHurt05]

Big surprise, Evan Turner going pro, Xavier Henry as well

 

Five Wildcats declare for draft: Wall, Bledsoe, Cousins, Orton, Patterson

[Palehosefan]

Big surprise, Evan Turner going pro, Xavier Henry as well

 

Five Wildcats declare for draft: Wall, Bledsoe, Cousins, Orton, Patterson

 

From the Louisville Courier-Journal

 

Kentucky's Daniel Orton to test NBA Draft.

 

“We had some teams say there was interest,” Larry Orton said. “They’re saying he could go anywhere from 1-20. ”

[Rowand44]

SIU should just cut the program if KD and Booker leave. I give up.

This is just unbelievable what's happening.

[Rowand44]

This is just unbelievable what's happening.

Quote myself here, cause I just talked to my buddy at the athletics office. It's a done deal that they're transferring. Unf***in real.

[Brian]

Quote myself here, cause I just talked to my buddy at the athletics office. It's a done deal that they're transferring. Unf***in real.

 

I don't blame KD for transferring to Xavier. Much better program. Sucks cuz I would of loved to see him and Taylor and Bocot together.

 

I'm going to have to pull for Illinois next year since SIU and Michigan will teh suck. Sigh

[nitetrain8601]

I'm not sure if Orton should go. Wait, I am sure, he should not go at all. Also, Bledsoe would be better suited staying a year and he'll have a chance to show how good he really is. He'd probably be a top 5 pick next year.

 

Patterson probably would've been better off leaving last year in a weak draft.

 

Xavier Henry going pro is good news. Maybe the Bulls will be able to get him.

[ZoomSlowik]

I'm not sure if Orton should go. Wait, I am sure, he should not go at all. Also, Bledsoe would be better suited staying a year and he'll have a chance to show how good he really is. He'd probably be a top 5 pick next year.

 

That would imply that there will be a a 2011 draft and season. Frankly, if I know I'm going in the first round this year, I'd go to make sure I have a season of money under my belt before a lockout. They're also talking about a significant reduction in the rookie salary scale in the next CBA. You make most of your money on your second contract anyways. Also, in Bledsoe's case, he needs to prove he's a solid pure point to really soar up the draft boards, and he'd still likely have to share the ball with Knight and/or Selby next season.

Edited April 8, 2010 by ZoomSlowik

[farmteam]

I'm hoping my glasses aren't too rose colored as I write this....

 

I expect Indiana to be roughly .500 next year. That's assuming a few things:

 

Maurice Creek comes back completely healthy.

Matt Roth too, but I think his absence was overstated by a lot of people.

Watford and Elston don't transfer

Muniru can contribute slightly/Pritchard remembers how to play basketball (though I wouldn't be too surprised if Pritchard transferred to a smaller school)

[greasywheels121]

I'm hoping my glasses aren't too rose colored as I write this....

 

I expect Indiana to be roughly .500 next year. That's assuming a few things:

 

Maurice Creek comes back completely healthy.

Matt Roth too, but I think his absence was overstated by a lot of people.

Watford and Elston don't transfer

Muniru can contribute slightly/Pritchard remembers how to play basketball (though I wouldn't be too surprised if Pritchard transferred to a smaller school)

 

Doesn't sound that rosy, so no one can accuse you of such. Maybe we can make the tournament (as a 22 seed!)

[RockRaines]

The more I think about it too, i'm not sure I buy the argument that OSU will be better than Illinois next year, given that one team will return it's starting 5 while adding highly rated freshman, and the other loses the national player of the year and gains some highly rated freshman. I think Turner is going to be a huge loss to that team, more than people expect.

A starting 5 returning doesnt mean much if the starting 5 isnt that good. OSU has 4 starters returning, 3 of which are some of the better players in the conference and are bringing in the #1 or 2 class depending on the recruiting service. This includes probably the best HS player in the country and another Mcd's AA.

[Jenksismyhero]

A starting 5 returning doesnt mean much if the starting 5 isnt that good. OSU has 4 starters returning, 3 of which are some of the better players in the conference and are bringing in the #1 or 2 class depending on the recruiting service. This includes probably the best HS player in the country and another Mcd's AA.

 

(1) Neither recruit is a one and done caliber player ala Wall or Cousins. At best they'll be good component pieces to the starting five, but they won't be a focal point.

 

(2) You're losing Turner, the national player of the year, the triple double machine, the guy that led your team the entire season. He's not replacable IMO

 

(3) There's talent there, don't get me wrong, but you guys won a ton of games with the 3 ball as a result of Turner's ability to drive and dish. That component will be gone next year.

 

Clearly I'm not saying they'll be awful. I expect them to contend next year for the conference and get a 1-5 seed. But I don't buy the top 5-10 hype. I think next year it's going to be a very similiar Big Ten. I'd rank them as follows:

 

PUR

MSU

ILL

OSU

WIS

MINN

NW

MICH

IU

PSU

IOWA

 

Purdue and MSU are going to be a step ahead of ILL/OSU/WIS who are all going to be about even. It obviously depends on which of the top 5 gets "lucky" with the schedule too.

[ZoomSlowik]

You're glossing over two pretty major things here:

 

-OSU and Illinois weren't remotely comparable this year. The Buckeyes were 7.5 games better overall and 4 games better in conference, and it would have been bigger if Turner hadn't missed 6 games. The Buckeyes beat Illinois three times by a combined 42 points.

 

-Sullinger is probably going to be the best post player in the conference. He's a top-5 recruit in the country (5 on scout 3 on rivals). He may or may not be one-and-done, but if he isn't it will be because he's not an amazing athlete, not because he isn't productive. Teams aren't going to be able to guard him one-and-one, and when they collapse they'll get those same open looks on the perimeter. I would say he compares pretty favorably to Kevin Love. Buford and Lighty can still do some damage on the drive too.

 

I'll put it this way, the way things look right now, OSU has four of the five best players between the two teams with Buford, Lighty, Diebler and Sullinger. Someone on Illinois besides McCamey will have to step up quite a bit for them to crack the top-3. They can't continue to have inconsistent play up front and marginal contributions from their wing players.

Edited April 8, 2010 by ZoomSlowik

[Jenksismyhero]

You're glossing over two pretty major things here:

 

-OSU and Illinois weren't remotely comparable this year. The Buckeyes were 7.5 games better overall and 4 games better in conference, and it would have been bigger if Turner hadn't missed 6 games. The Buckeyes beat Illinois three times by a combined 42 points.

 

-Sullinger is probably going to be the best post player in the conference. He's a top-5 recruit in the country (5 on scout 3 on rivals). He may or may not be one-and-done, but if he isn't it will be because he's not an amazing athlete, not because he isn't productive. Teams aren't going to be able to guard him one-and-one, and when they collapse they'll get those same open looks on the perimeter. I would say he compares pretty favorably to Kevin Love. Buford and Lighty can still do some damage on the drive too.

 

I'll put it this way, the way things look right now, OSU has four of the five best players between the two teams with Buford, Lighty, Diebler and Sullinger. Someone on Illinois besides McCamey will have to step up quite a bit for them to crack the top-3. They can't continue to have inconsistent play up front and marginal contributions from their wing players.

 

I think the not comparable is a bit of a stretch. No doubt they got destroyed in Champaign, but the game at OSU was close for the most part, and on a neutral court they went to 2 OT's (which Illinois should have one if they could have executed a simple in bounds play). Better no doubt, but I don't think by THAT much. And that's still WITH Turner, again, a near triple double guaranteed most of the time.

 

I'll take Leuer over Sullinger, but he will be one of the better big men probably.

 

WIth Illinois it's all about playing to potential. I think Richmond will bring a different attitude, I think Head/Bertrand will force the guards to compete at another level all year for playing time, and I think Leonard could be a potential sleeper. We shall see though.