Official 2010-2011 NCAA Basketball Thread

[whitesoxfan99]

ILL SHOULD be a top 15 team, I honestly think they have top 10 talent, and I'm not sure why they havent put it together.

 

They really have only played one bad game all year. They lost a tough game on a neutral court to a good Texas team, would have beaten Maryland by double figures if they made FTs down the stretch and had won every other game this year by double figures. Which makes Saturday's game even more bizarre.

[RockRaines]

Looks like Lenzelle isnt redshirting after all. Man he looks pretty good. He and Craft are going to be a nice duo.

[danman31]

Northwestern just took themselves out of tournament consideration. Can't lose to St. John's when your best OOC win is Georgia Tech.

[ZoomSlowik]

Northwestern just took themselves out of tournament consideration. Can't lose to St. John's when your best OOC win is Georgia Tech.

 

Let's not go crazy here. Losing to a middle of the pack Big East team because they played their worst half of the year isn't going to kill them. Everything still depends on what happens in conference play.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Northwestern just took themselves out of tournament consideration. Can't lose to St. John's when your best OOC win is Georgia Tech.

 

The Johnnies are not a bad team this year. They have a good shot at being a tourney team themselves.

[zenryan]

Let's not go crazy here. Losing to a middle of the pack Big East team because they played their worst half of the year isn't going to kill them. Everything still depends on what happens in conference play.

 

 

 

 

It's killed Virginia Tech the past 2 seasons.

 

 

It's a big loss because NW isnt going to have a good OOC win now. Northwestern better do really well in B10 play because if they are borderline then not playing a quality OOC is going to sink them.

[ZoomSlowik]

The Johnnies are not a bad team this year. They have a good shot at being a tourney team themselves.

 

I think the Big East is probably too deep for that, but if I heard correctly their RPI going into this game was 58. That's certainly not a killer.

 

NU still needs at least 10 conference wins in my opinion just like they did before last night, preferrably 11 with at least one win in the conference tournament. I'm assuming they'll blow at least one game they shouldn't, so that would mean taking at least two of their five against Wisconsin, Purdue and Minnesota and ideally stealing one of five from the top-3 of OSU/MSU/U of I. I think it's doable if they play well, but not if they play like they did in the second half last night.

[NorthSideSox72]

So, Chicago State might be the worst team I've ever seen.

 

Iowa State has 45 points 12 minutes in.

11-2 now, 2 OOC games left: @Virginia, and vs NIU.

 

And they have 8 days off between this game they just played against a crappy team, and the game at Virginia. That's not a good combination, and I doubt they can win.

 

Assuming they beat NIU, they go into the B12 schedule at 12-3, barring an upset of Virginia.

 

I'll predict they go 6-10 in the B12 schedule, to go into the B12 tournament at 18-13 (6-10). That's an NIT berth most likely, but if they make some noise in the conference tourney, they could have an outside shot of going to the NCAA's.

 

[Buehrle>Wood]

11-2 now, 2 OOC games left: @Virginia, and vs NIU.

 

And they have 8 days off between this game they just played against a crappy team, and the game at Virginia. That's not a good combination, and I doubt they can win.

 

Assuming they beat NIU, they go into the B12 schedule at 12-3, barring an upset of Virginia.

 

I'll predict they go 6-10 in the B12 schedule, to go into the B12 tournament at 18-13 (6-10). That's an NIT berth most likely, but if they make some noise in the conference tourney, they could have an outside shot of going to the NCAA's.

You would never go into the tournament with a 6-10 conference record no matter how well you do in your conference tourney...

[Heads22]

They'd have to go 8-8 to be in consideration.

[NorthSideSox72]

You would never go into the tournament with a 6-10 conference record no matter how well you do in your conference tourney...

Well first of all, unless the rules have changed, you win the conference tourney you go to NCAA's no matter what your record is.

 

Second, I distinctly recall some ISU teams and other teams going to the NCAA's with at best 7-9 records in conference. Not sure about 6-10, I'd have to look that up.

 

And it really depends too on who you beat with those wins.

 

[fathom]

You have a very outside chance of making the tourney if you go 6-10 during conference play if you had an out of conference schedule like Gonzaga did this year.

[NorthSideSox72]

These ISU teams went to the NCAA tourney with these records (overall/conf), in the time I've been following them:

 

1992: 21-13 (5-9)

1995: 23-11 (6-8)

 

Those were Big 8 seasons of course, but the relative records give you the idea here.

 

To give another view, here are seasons where they had decent overall records (say 18 or better wins) and bad conf records but did NOT make the tourney, from the same period:

 

2004: 20-13 (7-9)

 

So, looking at the past 20 years or so, of the three teams with 18+ overall wins but a losing conference record, 2 of the 3 went to the NCAA tournament.

[Heads22]

The Iowa State nonconference was so soft that it doesn't matter. And when you talk about 6 conference wins, 4 would likely be over Nebraska, Colorado, Oklahoma and Texas Tech.....so they won't mean much.

 

For Iowa State to be in tourney consideration, they likely need to beat Oklahoma State and A&M on the road, as well as getting a couple of upsets against the K-State, Mizzou, Kansas, Baylor group.

 

Pomeroy has ISU going 19-12, 6-10, with projected wins against Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Mizzou, Nebraska and Colorado, all in Ames.

 

Regardless, a road win against Virginia would be a nice starting point.

[NorthSideSox72]

The Iowa State nonconference was so soft that it doesn't matter. And when you talk about 6 conference wins, 4 would likely be over Nebraska, Colorado, Oklahoma and Texas Tech.....so they won't mean much.

 

For Iowa State to be in tourney consideration, they likely need to beat Oklahoma State and A&M on the road, as well as getting a couple of upsets against the K-State, Mizzou, Kansas, Baylor group.

 

Pomeroy has ISU going 19-12, 6-10, with projected wins against Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Mizzou, Nebraska and Colorado, all in Ames.

 

Regardless, a road win against Virginia would be a nice starting point.

 

So them Pomeroy expects ISU to beat Virginia - which I think is probably not going to happen. Nice if it did though.

 

19-12/6-10, they need to win at least a game in the tourney to have a shot. 20 wins puts them in serious consideration, in my view.

 

But really, if Hoiberg can even just get this team 18+ wins and an NIT berth, that's progress.

 

[Buehrle>Wood]

These ISU teams went to the NCAA tourney with these records (overall/conf), in the time I've been following them:

 

1992: 21-13 (5-9)

1995: 23-11 (6-8)

 

Those were Big 8 seasons of course, but the relative records give you the idea here.

 

To give another view, here are seasons where they had decent overall records (say 18 or better wins) and bad conf records but did NOT make the tourney, from the same period:

 

2004: 20-13 (7-9)

 

So, looking at the past 20 years or so, of the three teams with 18+ overall wins but a losing conference record, 2 of the 3 went to the NCAA tournament.

There hasn't been a team 4 games below .500 in their own conference since at least 2003. It just doesn't happen, and especially wouldn't happen to a team with who plays such a terrible non conference schedule. And 20 wins does not mean a whole lot any more at all.

Edited December 22, 2010 by Buehrle>Wood

[Heads22]

So them Pomeroy expects ISU to beat Virginia - which I think is probably not going to happen. Nice if it did though.

 

19-12/6-10, they need to win at least a game in the tourney to have a shot. 20 wins puts them in serious consideration, in my view.

 

But really, if Hoiberg can even just get this team 18+ wins and an NIT berth, that's progress.

 

Agreed. He also needs to personally thank Ricardo Patton when Iowa State faces Northern Illinois for Jake Anderson.

 

It's also going to be a serious disappointment if they don't make the tournament next year. Looking at a lineup with these four starters:

 

G: Chris Allen

G: Scott Christopherson

F: Melvin Ejim

F: Royce White

 

 

What remains to be seen is if Tyrus McGee or Tavon Sledge takes a third guard spot or if Anthony Booker grabs a third forward spot, sliding Ejim to the 3.

 

Throw in the fact that, thru one of my guys with the basketball team, that Iowa State is the current leader for 3 Top 50 2012/2013 recruits, including Peter Jok from Des Moines, ranked as #18 in the class of 2013 by ESPN (cousin of Manute Bol and Luol Deng, actually) the future looks pretty good.

 

The nicest thing will simply be being relevant again. I realize we've beat no one, and we've lost two bad games to UNI and Cal, but the team actually has chemistry, and its already translated into actual better crowds at Hilton. The next three games are extremely winnable @ Virginia, vs. NIU and @ Nebraska. Win those three and they are 14-2 coming into the Kansas game, which should be a lot of fun.

[danman31]

Let's not go crazy here. Losing to a middle of the pack Big East team because they played their worst half of the year isn't going to kill them. Everything still depends on what happens in conference play.

St. John's is likely not a middle of the pack Big East team. They have wins over NU and Arizona State with losses to St. Bonaventure, St. Mary's and Fordham. St. Mary's is fine, but St. John's will get smashed in the Big East.

 

The loss also proves to me that Northwestern isn't capable of going 11-7 in the Big Ten. If you can't beat St. John's, there aren't 11 wins in the Big Ten to be had. Even then, with an awful OOC resume, 11-7 only puts them on the bubble anyway.

[fathom]

St. John's is likely not a middle of the pack Big East team. They have wins over NU and Arizona State with losses to St. Bonaventure, St. Mary's and Fordham. St. Mary's is fine, but St. John's will get smashed in the Big East.

 

The loss also proves to me that Northwestern isn't capable of going 11-7 in the Big Ten. If you can't beat St. John's, there aren't 11 wins in the Big Ten to be had. Even then, with an awful OOC resume, 11-7 only puts them on the bubble anyway.

 

St. John's played out of their minds last night though, so it's hard to judge Northwestern on one single game.

[Heads22]

Very rarely is there a December loss out there that dooms you.

[fathom]

Very rarely is there a December loss out there that dooms you.

 

Unless you lose by 17 at Kennesaw State

[ZoomSlowik]

St. John's is likely not a middle of the pack Big East team. They have wins over NU and Arizona State with losses to St. Bonaventure, St. Mary's and Fordham. St. Mary's is fine, but St. John's will get smashed in the Big East.

 

The loss also proves to me that Northwestern isn't capable of going 11-7 in the Big Ten. If you can't beat St. John's, there aren't 11 wins in the Big Ten to be had. Even then, with an awful OOC resume, 11-7 only puts them on the bubble anyway.

 

St. John's isn't the best team in the Big East and they're not the worst. They're probably somewhere in the 8 to 12 range in the #1 or #2 rated confence and you essentially played them on the road (neutral site my ass).

 

As Fathom said, you can't judge a team on one game (realistically more like half a game as they were up 10 in the first half and lead at halftime) and it wasn't even the worst loss among the non-bottom feeders in the Big Ten this week.

 

It won't be their last bad game, but they're also not going to shoot like 30% in the second half every game, or have everyone not named John Shurna shoot 34% for the entire game, or have an opponent have a 70% shooting half every game (yeah, their D was bad, but come on). Pretty much everything went wrong for NU outside of Shurna having a bad game and they were still within 5 or 6 points until things got worse with 7 minutes to go.

 

And if you go 11-7 in the #1 or #2 rated conference, you're not a bubble team even if your OOC schedule sucks. That would mean at least 3 wins against the RPI top-50 most likely (4 if you assume they blow a game to someone like Indiana or Penn State), possibly with a couple of top-25's.

 

Outside of OSU, everyone in the conference has had at least one bad game. It happens, move on and concentrate on getting off to a good start in the Big Ten. They'll have four shots at adding a quality win or two in the first five games, that stretch will give you a much better idea of their chances.

Edited December 22, 2010 by ZoomSlowik

[Heads22]

Unless you lose by 17 at Kennesaw State

 

Heh.

[RockRaines]

OSU has played really 2 bad games, they just were alot better talent-wise than their opponents. FSU and IUPUI were not very good games for them at all.

 

Of course in conference play is a much different animal. A semi bad game in conference on the road is an almost automatic loss in the Big Ten. I cannot wait for conference play to start.

Edited December 22, 2010 by RockRaines

[knightni]

I'd love to watch a mid-level High School boys team wipe the floor with UConn's women's team.