Viciedo BB%

AA = 4.3%

AAA = 3.0%

MLB = 1.9%

 

His walk rates are abysmal. Viciedo is not among the top prospects because he's stuck at 1B/DH with poor defense and has no on-base skills. His main talents are hitting for power and making contact, so he will be able to provide surplus value. Just not as much as other young players who can draw walks and offer premium defense in addition to the contact/power that Viciedo has. I would not be opposed to trading Viciedo and his remaining $6M to a rebuilding team looking for a young 1B/DH in exchange for a raw prospect

In 2009 at AA, Viciedo took about 4 walks before June. He took 9 walks in 100 at bats in June, then caught fire with the bats in July. He only took 4 walks in July, but hit .303. He struggled through August and those numbers went back down. However, 4.3% as his AA walk rate reflects the average of 3 distinct parts of his performance; the early season struggles, June and particularly July when he was actually hitting well, and a struggling August.

 

He then spent only a couple months in AAA, and was on fire in May before his first callup in June. On fire in may = .943 OPS.

 

Those numbers at best show a guy who's been moved up aggressively while simultaneously learning how to hit American style pitching. They certainly aren't illustrating a statistically significant trend.

I'd like for Hot Fire to be able to take over 1B, but I really think he needs to be in AAA to start the next year. Still a lot of time for him to develop.

You’re persistent with that one, I’ll give you that much.

I'm not trying to imply his walk rate is worsening. The numbers clearly show a consistent lack of ability to draw walks, and there is no clear improvement happening either, as you stated

I'm not trying to imply his walk rate is worsening. The numbers clearly show a consistent lack of ability to draw walks, and there is no clear improvement happening either, as you stated

There's no "Clear improvement" but there was also no opportunity given for him to clearly improve. When he sat at AA for 3-4 months, in the 3rd month his walk rate significantly improved, and in the 4th month his overall performance with the bats followed.

 

He sat in AAA for less than 3 months, was moving between 2 different defensive positions, and was tearing the cover off the ball after the 2nd month.

 

You can't use "There's no clear improvement' as an argument against him when they haven't given him a shot to do so; they've been more interested in promoting him. If you want to use that as an argument that the team is promoting people too rapidly go ahead...but his bat is also acting like it would if he was ready for those promotions.

I'm only talking about his patience and ability to draw walks. Not his entire offensive game. He clearly improved overall from his first season in pro ball to his second

I'm only talking about his patience and ability to draw walks. Not his entire offensive game. He clearly improved overall from his first season in pro ball to his second

And his patience improved after his arrival at AA. The longer he stayed at AA, the better his walk rate was getting. He never spent enough time at AA and didn't get enough AB's (and in particular, regular AB's) in the big leagues for us to even see if the same thing would happen.

And his patience improved after his arrival at AA. The longer he stayed at AA, the better his walk rate was getting.

There was no significant improvement in his walk rate the longer he stayed at AA. Whatever minimal improvement there was meant his walk rate was going from non-existent to well below average.

 

AA walks by month (non-intentional)

May - 3

June - 9

July - 4

August -4

 

Taking walks simply is not going to be a part of Viciedo's game, he is and always will be a free-swinger. His status as a prospect is lessened because of that.

There was no significant improvement in his walk rate the longer he stayed at AA. Whatever minimal improvement there was meant his walk rate was going from non-existent to well below average.

 

AA walks by month (non-intentional)

May - 3

June - 9

July - 4

August -4

 

Taking walks simply is not going to be a part of Viciedo's game, he is and always will be a free-swinger. His status as a prospect is lessened because of that.

 

Agree. His status is also increased because he can hit balls hard that nobody else can even hit.

I wanna see if he'd work out in RF (I know Ace is with me on this) unless we get a lefty RF with a good glove.

100% yes, but they should had done it a while back IMO. His arm is essensially wasted at 1B, and Cubano has already said he played some corner OF in Cuba. (mostly 3B though) and his range was solid.

I just read a feature in ESPN the Mag saying Brett Gardner was ordered to never swing til he had a strike on him in the minors. Said it helped his development greatly.

If Tank doesn't fix his plate discipline, he's never going to have a good OB percentage or batting average. Do we all agree on that?

I just read a feature in ESPN the Mag saying Brett Gardner was ordered to never swing til he had a strike on him in the minors. Said it helped his development greatly.

If Tank doesn't fix his plate discipline, he's never going to have a good OB percentage or batting average. Do we all agree on that?

 

It will need to improve, but, in theory, if he hits .320 with good power, teams will pitch around him, and he will draw more walks as a result and he will walk more without ever actually having improved his plate discipline.

Edited November 1, 201015 yr by witesoxfan

I just read a feature in ESPN the Mag saying Brett Gardner was ordered to never swing til he had a strike on him in the minors. Said it helped his development greatly.

If Tank doesn't fix his plate discipline, he's never going to have a good OB percentage or batting average. Do we all agree on that?

From my eye and the PA's I saw of his, he actually had a decent eye, he just wouldn't walk (as in, he would go deep in the count, but would find a pitch to hit).

 

His average will be good, probably in the .280-.310 range (for his career) but his OBP will be really low. For now, under his cheap contract he can be pretty valuable to the Sox.

From my eye and the PA's I saw of his, he actually had a decent eye, he just wouldn't walk (as in, he would go deep in the count, but would find a pitch to hit).

Viciedo saw 3.34 pitches per plate appearance, 2nd lowest (Pierzynski) of all White Sox with at least 100 PA

I like Tank a lot. He hasn't got to where he is now by looking at pitches . Much rather have a guy who can hit and not take walks than a guy who can take a walk but can't hit a lick. He's a baby , he will learn. Right now his strength is tatooing the ball and I'm fine with that. If he was 24 and still hadn't found a position he can play or take a few walks once in a while then he can be a DH.

He is a butcher in the field. He can hit but he won't if he swings at everything. I say package him in a trade. He is another guy with out a position.

He could be a .315/40/100 guy in his prime. Not a great OBP, but will make up for it with high slugging. I could see a couple Vlad Guerrero-type seasons at his peak. He has elite bat speed and will have elite hand strength and lower-body strength once he develops more. Again, he has only been playing professional baseball for two years in the states and has already hit Major League pitching well. There is no telling what he will do when he reaches 25-28 (physical maturity) which is still FOUR YEARS away. I am pretty negative when it comes to most Sox prospects, but he might be the most underrated prospect in baseball. I am serious. In no body's top lists and he is a beast already at 21 in the majors.

 

I completely agree with this.

 

From my eye and the PA's I saw of his, he actually had a decent eye, he just wouldn't walk (as in, he would go deep in the count, but would find a pitch to hit).

 

His average will be good, probably in the .280-.310 range (for his career) but his OBP will be really low. For now, under his cheap contract he can be pretty valuable to the Sox.

 

I thought the same. It wasn't so much that he would swing at anything, but if he saw a good pitch to hit he would go after it. And frankly, if you're the kind of hitter expected to drive the ball and drive in runs, why wouldn't you want to swing after the first good one you saw? He's 21 and obviously was trying to make an impression.

 

He is a butcher in the field. He can hit but he won't if he swings at everything. I say package him in a trade. He is another guy with out a position.

 

He's 21 and has been in the US for 2 years. Giving up on him for those reasons is not good baseball management.

His future depends on what happens in the offseason with Paulie and/or whatever big bat the team acquires. It would be ideal to have him stay in AAA a bit longer, but if DH or 1B are a massive hole in March, then he needs to get the job.

 

His future depends on what happens in the offseason with Paulie and/or whatever big bat the team acquires. It would be ideal to have him stay in AAA a bit longer, but if DH or 1B are a massive hole in March, then he needs to get the job.

My real worry is illustrated well by this thread...we've heard repeatedly "He's a butcher on defense, we ought to trade him because of that". Reality is...yes, he's a butcher on defense, but he's also a 21 year old who's been bouncing around between 2 positions. You stick him at a position permanently and let him develop there (living with the growing pains) and we'll probably stop hearing that complaint. If he starts the season off as the big league DH, he's likely to never leave the DH role.

100% yes, but they should had done it a while back IMO. His arm is essensially wasted at 1B, and Cubano has already said he played some corner OF in Cuba. (mostly 3B though) and his range was solid.

 

I still think they might try it if Paulie comes back.

100% yes, but they should had done it a while back IMO. His arm is essensially wasted at 1B, and Cubano has already said he played some corner OF in Cuba. (mostly 3B though) and his range was solid.

 

I still think they might try it if Paulie comes back.

I still think they might try it if Paulie comes back.

With Morel already looking like he's ready defensively at 3b...I don't know where they'd work him in there. I really doubt they're going to want to try him out at 3b and just let him commit 40 errors while learning the position next year, they're not goign to demote Morel to AA to work Viciedo at 3b, I don't know how they could pull that off.

That's pretty awesome on paper we have our defensive 3B now for the next 10 years. Hope he can hit a bit.

 

That's pretty awesome on paper we have our defensive 3B now for the next 10 years. Hope he can hit a bit.

WTF?

Viciedo saw 3.34 pitches per plate appearance, 2nd lowest (Pierzynski) of all White Sox with at least 100 PA

Eh, small sample size. I wouldnt mind seeing his minor league number in terms of pppa. I also didn't see him chase too much, but I didn't see every AB.