Let me start off by saying this is NOT meant as a s***-on Mark or a pessimistic thread. Mark is one of my all-time favorite players, probably #2 after Frank as for as White Sox go. But I do have some legitimate concerns:

 

He's never been a 'flamethrower'. Even during his peak years. But the last three years his K/9 has dissolved from 5.76, to 4.43, to a Charlie Hough like 4.24. Soft-tosser is not even the term to describe a K-rate that low. Mark was able to get by last year mostly due to an abnormal HR/FB ratio of 6.0%. Easily the lowest of his career. And for some reason, and I have no idea why, the percentage of line drives he induced were 15.9%. That was substantially lower than his career mark of 19.6%. When your K-rate is that low you're teetering the line between serviceable and Kyle Davies. His xFIP, which has become the new fad in evaluating a pitcher's true talent, was a mediocre 4.69. And going by what I've seen, it doesn't look like Mark's spent too much time in the gym of late. I wouldn't be as concerned with a healthy Peavy. But that's a myth until I see otherwise. There's no margin for error from the top 4 this year. I'm pretty confident in Danks and Floyd. So-so with Jackson. But MB at this point really scares me. Thoughts?

The way Mark pitches, he can pitch into his 40's if he so chooses.

Let me start off by saying this is NOT meant as a s***-on Mark or a pessimistic thread. Mark is one of my all-time favorite players, probably #2 after Frank as for as White Sox go. But I do have some legitimate concerns:

 

He's never been a 'flamethrower'. Even during his peak years. But the last three years his K/9 has dissolved from 5.76, to 4.43, to a Charlie Hough like 4.24. Soft-tosser is not even the term to describe a K-rate that low. Mark was able to get by last year mostly due to an abnormal HR/FB ratio of 6.0%. Easily the lowest of his career. And for some reason, and I have no idea why, the percentage of line drives he induced were 15.9%. That was substantially lower than his career mark of 19.6%. When your K-rate is that low you're teetering the line between serviceable and Kyle Davies. His xFIP, which has become the new fad in evaluating a pitcher's true talent, was a mediocre 4.69. And going by what I've seen, it doesn't look like Mark's spent too much time in the gym of late. I wouldn't be as concerned with a healthy Peavy. But that's a myth until I see otherwise. There's no margin for error from the top 4 this year. I'm pretty confident in Danks and Floyd. So-so with Jackson. But MB at this point really scares me. Thoughts?

I feel the same way you do with Mark before every season but until he proves that he is anything but a solid above average innings eater I will give him the benefit of the doubt.

I mean that's a certainly a fair analysis, that being said, to me Mark is just one of those guys where you can throw peripherals and everything else out the damn window. He's going to give you a solid yet not spectacular 200+ innings, with an era between 3.8 and 4.25, no doubt in my mind.

He was actually pretty much the exact same pitcher last year that he was in 2006 when he put up a 4.99 ERA with the difference being the home runs. The other aspect you didn't mention was that last year, his BABIP was .313 compared to his career average of .291. That number is actually skewed because of his first two years as a starter (.242 and .277), but expecting him to allow fewer hits makes sense.

 

I don't worry about Buehrle, because he shows trends like this and then bucks those with a better year. I think there is always some sort of mild concern at the beginning of each year simply because Buehrle can barely hit 88 MPH any more, but he's the best defensive pitcher in the game both due to his pickoff move, defense, and quickness to the plate, so he's always going to have that built in advantage working for him.

 

My guess is that Buehrle will do the same thing he's done pretty much throughout his career - have one area better than his career average which helps propel him to a good year. I'd say that the FGs Fans' projections are pretty much exactly what I expect from Buehrle.

I wish I had a crystal ball to look in to November 2011 to see who we as fans are going to want the Sox to re sign between Buehrle and Jackson.

 

I'm betting we'll be hoping for the Sox to go with Jackson.

I like this daily posting of a topic that questions a player or the payroll.

Let's put it this way, I don't think he has a better year than he did last year. We need three starters to be better than MB this year.

I like this daily posting of a topic that questions a player or the payroll.

 

Me too.

Ever think that the numbers you're citing as confusing might be linked?

 

For example, you cite M-56's low K rate, but then cite both a low LD %age and a low HR/FB %age.

 

Hypothetically, let's say that a few balls that typically would have been strikeouts in a previous year wound up being hit, but only hit weakly, such that they turned into a lot of extra popups.

 

That would accomplish all the numbers you're talking about, and there'd be no reason to expect it to renew again this year.

I like this daily posting of a topic that questions a player or the payroll.

 

Yes, message boards are horrible places for topics like these.

Ever think that the numbers you're citing as confusing might be linked?

 

For example, you cite M-56's low K rate, but then cite both a low LD %age and a low HR/FB %age.

 

Hypothetically, let's say that a few balls that typically would have been strikeouts in a previous year wound up being hit, but only hit weakly, such that they turned into a lot of extra popups.

 

That would accomplish all the numbers you're talking about, and there'd be no reason to expect it to renew again this year.

 

I thought about that. And if the HR/FB ratio and LD% stay the same then Mark should be OK. But those were by far career lows. Mark's K-rate has been in decline for three years. A further decline and it gets kinda scary.

Yes, message boards are horrible places for topics like these.

 

It's not that it's a bad place, because it's obviously the perfect place, but it's the asking of the same questions every year, which never get answered that make it a complete waste of time.

 

Like this thread. You will get a range of opinions, arguments, disagreements or agreements...but no definitive or real answers...just a lot of speculation.

 

This question has been asked about Buehrle, on this message board, every year since he's arrived.

It's not that it's a bad place, because it's obviously the perfect place, but it's the asking of the same questions every year, which never get answered that make it a complete waste of time.

 

Like this thread. You will get a range of opinions, arguments, disagreements or agreements...but no definitive or real answers...just a lot of speculation.

 

This question has been asked about Buehrle, on this message board, every year since he's arrived.

 

No, it hasn't. Unless you're referring to the infamous "the continuing fall and decline of Mark Buehrle" thread. Which hasn't been seen for years. But if these kinda topics are so boring nobody is forcing you to reply. Some of the threads created around these parts baffle me. But I stay out of them if they don't interest me. Otherwise I'd probably have 50,000+ posts.

He looked awful good yesterday.

No, it hasn't. Unless you're referring to the infamous "the continuing fall and decline of Mark Buehrle" thread. Which hasn't been seen for years. But if these kinda topics are so boring nobody is forcing you to reply. Some of the threads created around these parts baffle me. But I stay out of them if they don't interest me. Otherwise I'd probably have 50,000+ posts.

 

My post count says it all when it comes to that...I rarely do waste my time on stuff like this, for you, I made an exception since you seem to be getting good at topics like this.

 

Eh, I am pretty much expecting the same Mark Buehrle we have seen for years. 220 IP, 4ish era, and keeping us in just about every game. We all know he isn't going to overpower anyone, but still to this day hitters don't really square him up.

I expect a #4 starter kind of numbers from him this year, and either retirement or come back on a 2 year reasonable deal to be a #5th starter.

I am not concerned about MB. He is a control pitcher that needs to be sharp with his stuff, but control and a good defense always helps make him a winner

I wonder if Burls' best years are really behind him or if he's going to find another way to get guys out, using more guile and finesse than he already does, and add about 5 more legit years to his career.

Marks' going to fall off a cliff performance-wise some season, I just hope it's not with us.

I'm concerned that he won't be able to do a back flip prior to throwing the ball between his legs to Konerko this year.

I think he's going to pull a DRose and carry the team all year- best Buehrle in years. The #1 reason being not to make a public fool of JR and KW for their All-In commitment to the team. #2 Cha ching Pay Day, Multi-year, quick 8 figs no brainer.

I think he's going to pull a DRose and carry the team all year- best Buehrle in years. The #1 reason being not to make a public fool of JR and KW for their All-In commitment to the team. #2 Cha ching Pay Day, Multi-year, quick 8 figs no brainer.

 

Lol. I have no problem seeing Mark go if he's expecting another 4-year, $56 million dollar contract. I don't care if he wins 30 games.

 

He once started the All Star game. I don't think we will see that again. He has been declining for several years now even if the stats don't show it. Maybe he belongs in the bullpen soon.