Peavy's future here

[ptatc]

If Danks comes back and Sale and Quintana suffer no ill effects of having an innings boost this year, you could probably get that and more. If Sale stays healthy and is ready for 180+ innings next year, that's cy young material.

He will get close to that this year so he should be ready for it next year.

[Chisoxfn]

Liriano $11 million > Gavin $9.5 million > Peavy $18 million

Gavin has been better then Liriano the past 3 years, collectively speaking.

[Quin]

Ideally, I'd like our rotation going into next to be:

 

Sale

Peavy

Liriano

Floyd/RH Upgrade From Floyd acquired via trade

Quintana

 

The problem is Danks. We can't trade him, but we really can't keep the Sale/Liriano/Quintana trio in the rotation with him.

 

And maybe Jake would take 3/39, which would be his option next year + the $4M buyout + a third year at the same rate. Offer another buyout at the end of it worth around $2M and he might take it.

Edited August 2, 2012 by Quinarvy

[DukeNukeEm]

I really like Jake Peavy, I have since we got him. He plays hard, he works even harder and he's got a lot left in the tank. Him and Sale can form an ultimate righty/lefty combo at the top of the rotation, with Danks right behind as a #3. After that we all know its Kenny-land, but if you can get another year out of this Jake Peavy you do it. The price of his option is a bargain for how well he can pitch and the attitude he brings.

 

If I had my way he'd retire here. All around awesome pitcher who has overcome amounts of adversity that have totally ruined many careers.

[caulfield12]

I really like Jake Peavy, I have since we got him. He plays hard, he works even harder and he's got a lot left in the tank. Him and Sale can form an ultimate righty/lefty combo at the top of the rotation, with Danks right behind as a #3. After that we all know its Kenny-land, but if you can get another year out of this Jake Peavy you do it. The price of his option is a bargain for how well he can pitch and the attitude he brings.

 

If I had my way he'd retire here. All around awesome pitcher who has overcome amounts of adversity that have totally ruined many careers.

 

I think it's really, really, pushing it to call it a bargain.

 

We'll see if JR and KW agree with you on that front. He's not going to be easily replaceable...however, there's a lot of ways to be creative with that kind of money. That's nearly superstar level money, and Peavy might be many things, but he's not 2007 Jake Peavy.

 

No problem paying him $12.5-15 million per year, but anything over that is playing with fire, just like the Danks contract has quickly become the new riskiest contract on our books, over Peavy/Dunn/Rios.

[hogan873]

I would assume Peavy knows (or at least suspects) that the Sox will not exercise the $22MM option. If he's genuine about wanting to pitch for the Sox again, he'll listen to any offer the Sox throw at him. And I'm pretty sure the Sox will try to re-sign him. Peavy doesn't seem like the money hungry type, but who knows for sure. I'm thinking the Sox offer $12MM-$14MM a year for 2 or 3 years. I don't see them offering more than $15MM per. Hopefully Jake agrees to a deal like that. Then the Sox can hopefully re-sign Liriano (depending on the rest of the season) for around $8MM-$10MM a year for a couple years. Provided Floyd isn't traded, the Sox would have a nice looking rotation:

 

Peavy

Sale

Quintana

Liriano

Floyd/Humber

Edited August 2, 2012 by pittshoganerkoff

[cabiness42]

I would assume Peavy knows (or at least suspects) that the Sox will not exercise the $22MM option. If he's genuine about wanting to pitch for the Sox again, he'll listen to any offer the Sox throw at him. And I'm pretty sure the Sox will try to re-sign him. Peavy doesn't seem like the money hungry type, but who knows for sure. I'm thinking the Sox offer $12MM-$14MM a year for 2 or 3 years. I don't see them offering more than $15MM per. Hopefully Jake agrees to a deal like that. Then the Sox can hopefully re-sign Liriano (depending on the rest of the season) for around $8MM-$10MM a year for a couple years. Provided Floyd isn't traded, the Sox would have a nice looking rotation:

 

Peavy

Sale

Quintana

Liriano

Floyd/Humber

 

You haven't listed Danks, who has to be paid even if he isn't healthy.

 

I don't see any way that Danks, Floyd, Peavy, and Liriano are all on the payroll next year. At most three of the four and maybe only even two, depending on how Humber finishes out the season.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

I think it's really, really, pushing it to call it a bargain.

 

We'll see if JR and KW agree with you on that front. He's not going to be easily replaceable...however, there's a lot of ways to be creative with that kind of money. That's nearly superstar level money, and Peavy might be many things, but he's not 2007 Jake Peavy.

 

No problem paying him $12.5-15 million per year, but anything over that is playing with fire, just like the Danks contract has quickly become the new riskiest contract on our books, over Peavy/Dunn/Rios.

How is one year playing with fire?

 

The whole point here is we can get #1 starter production (if he can stay healthy) without a long-term commitment or sacrificing any young assets by picking up the option. The marginal cost is $18 million, only $3 million more than some people are willing to pay him annually on a three year deal.

 

I understand there is some risk he won't stay healthy, but I'd counter we don't have a great chance at making the post-season next year without him and if he does get injured it only impacts 2013. Plus if he does stay healthy, we'd probably get a compensation pick for him. Again, there is some risk involved in picking up the option, but it's isolated and the potential rewards greatly are much greater IMO.

[cabiness42]

I haven't seen this mentioned yet, but I think the Sox qualify for draft pick compensation if they buy out Peavy's option and then make him a qualifying offer. No reason not to do that unless Peavy decided to sign an extension before then.

[Lillian]

How is one year playing with fire?

 

The whole point here is we can get #1 starter production (if he can stay healthy) without a long-term commitment or sacrificing any young assets by picking up the option. The marginal cost is $18 million, only $3 million more than some people are willing to pay him annually on a three year deal.

 

I understand there is some risk he won't stay healthy, but I'd counter we don't have a great chance at making the post-season next year without him and if he does get injured it only impacts 2013. Plus if he does stay healthy, we'd probably get a compensation pick for him. Again, there is some risk involved in picking up the option, but it's isolated and the potential rewards greatly are much greater IMO.

 

You make a very compelling argument. Having him for one year, at the marginal cost of $18 Million is not nearly as risky as a long term deal. It isn't the high annual cost of some of these contracts that makes them such a bad investment, it's the long term commitment, especially to a pitcher. It's just too difficult to predict the health and longevity of pitchers. I think a smart owner would welcome the opportunity to pay 3 or 4 "aces" big money, all on one year contracts.

What is scary is having to commit to several years of big money for a player who may be injured or ineffective. That can really hamstring a team for years.

[Lillian]

As some of you have pointed out, the Sox are not going to have 4 lefties in the starting rotation.

Someone has to go to the pen, be traded, or not resigned.

If Sale proves not to be durable enough to remain a starter, the Sox may revert back to plan B, and make him the closer.

It isn't the best way to optimize his talent, but it's better than having him injured, or significantly limited in the number of starts.

 

If that were to happen, there would be room for the other three lefties in the rotation. It would be a shame to not be able to keep Sale in the rotation and give the staff a true "Ace". At least the Sox would have a "lights out" closer, which Reed certainly is NOT!

Edited August 2, 2012 by Lillian

[hogan873]

You haven't listed Danks, who has to be paid even if he isn't healthy.

 

I don't see any way that Danks, Floyd, Peavy, and Liriano are all on the payroll next year. At most three of the four and maybe only even two, depending on how Humber finishes out the season.

Wow, I totally forgot about Danks. I see your point. If all four of those guys can't be on the payroll, I would choose Peavy, Danks, and Liriano. I realize that Floyd has better numbers overall, but I think Liriano may have better stuff. And hopefully working with Cooper will make him an even better pitcher.

[Balta1701]

He will get close to that this year so he should be ready for it next year.

If you throw in the Verducci effect, even if he's ready for 180 innings, you might not expect a sub 3 ERA from them, but that's not a guarantee there.

[Balta1701]

If he commands more than 3/$45M, I don't want. Can't sign someone with his durability concerns to a contract longer than that, or more lucrative. Even the numbers I just stated would make me nervous.

That immediately makes me think of Jason Schmidt.

[Balta1701]

As some of you have pointed out, the Sox are not going to have 4 lefties in the starting rotation.

Someone has to go to the pen, be traded, or not resigned.

If Sale proves not to be durable enough to remain a starter, the Sox may revert back to plan B, and make him the closer.

It isn't the best way to optimize his talent, but it's better than having him injured, or significantly limited in the number of starts.

 

If that were to happen, there would be room for the other three lefties in the rotation. It would be a shame to not be able to keep Sale in the rotation and give the staff a true "Ace". At least the Sox would have a "lights out" closer, which Reed certainly is NOT!

We're not going to go through all this effort stretching him out this year, having him have serious success, and then put him back in the bullpen unless his arm forces us to.

[Melissa1334]

we need peavy, so its obviously all on the amount of money and years he commands. i know he wants to be here but i think theres going to be a team like dodgers thats are going to make an offer he cant refuse, hopefully not.

[southsider2k5]

Gavin has been better then Liriano the past 3 years, collectively speaking.

 

The difference being that Liriano has one of the best arms in all of baseball. If Cooper can get through to him, he would be a top 10 pitcher in baseball (assuming he stays healthy). Floyd has the potential to be a very good pitcher when he is on, but his ceiling is more like top 50.

[Balta1701]

The difference being that Liriano has one of the best arms in all of baseball. If Cooper can get through to him, he would be a top 10 pitcher in baseball (assuming he stays healthy). Floyd has the potential to be a very good pitcher when he is on, but his ceiling is more like top 50.

So, do you pay for performance or do you pay even more for potential?

 

If Liriano comes out and continues walking 5 per 9 IP the rest of the year, you can say all the same things about "perhaps Coop will help him", but we're still right there with that same question.

[southsider2k5]

So, do you pay for performance or do you pay even more for potential?

 

If Liriano comes out and continues walking 5 per 9 IP the rest of the year, you can say all the same things about "perhaps Coop will help him", but we're still right there with that same question.

 

If Cooper tells Kenny he can't get through to him, you let him walk.

[LittleHurt05]

If you throw in the Verducci effect, even if he's ready for 180 innings, you might not expect a sub 3 ERA from them, but that's not a guarantee there.

 

Hasn't the Verducci effect been proven to be BS, though? He just threw an arbitrary number at the wall, hoping it would stick. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, it's still all a crapshoot.

[Balta1701]

Hasn't the Verducci effect been proven to be BS, though? He just threw an arbitrary number at the wall, hoping it would stick. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, it's still all a crapshoot.

Even if 25 is an arbitrary number, Sale's going to throw close to 100 more innings this year than last year. Sale will be at the top of that list.

[hogan873]

So, do you pay for performance or do you pay even more for potential?

 

If Liriano comes out and continues walking 5 per 9 IP the rest of the year, you can say all the same things about "perhaps Coop will help him", but we're still right there with that same question.

Tough one. I think when Floyd was extended, there was a look at his potential. To me, Floyd seems to buckle under pressure where Liriano is more consistent in just throwing too many damn balls. Both have shown flashes of being much better pitchers than their numbers show. Liriano, however, seems like the guy with more potential. I certainly wouldn't mind having them both, provided Coop can work on Liriano's control and Floyd can become a more confident guy. However, you'd be looking at $18MM or so of guys who have question marks.

[Lillian]

We're not going to go through all this effort stretching him out this year, having him have serious success, and then put him back in the bullpen unless his arm forces us to.

 

I agree. That was precisely my point: "If Sale proves not to be durable enough to be a starter........."

[Melissa1334]

Tough one. I think when Floyd was extended, there was a look at his potential. To me, Floyd seems to buckle under pressure where Liriano is more consistent in just throwing too many damn balls. Both have shown flashes of being much better pitchers than their numbers show. Liriano, however, seems like the guy with more potential. I certainly wouldn't mind having them both, provided Coop can work on Liriano's control and Floyd can become a more confident guy. However, you'd be looking at $18MM or so of guys who have question marks.

obviously we have to see how liriano pitches the rest of the way but if he does well, i rather have liriano. i dont really like our chances with floyd against a big time starter like weaver,verlander,etc but liriano can shut down any lineup and id take my chances with him. but it is a tough decision with the 4 lefties though

[Balta1701]

I agree. That was precisely my point: "If Sale proves not to be durable enough to be a starter........."

Here's the problem...unless Sale hits the DL with a serious problem before the end of this year, you cannot spend $10-$20 million on a 6th starter as "Insurance" for him. You're not going to give Peavy $18 million to be insurance for Sale and then consign yourself to putting Gavin Floyd in the bullpen in case Sale gets hurt (or in case Danks can't come back despite what doctors say).

 

If you're signing Peavy, it's because you think it's a good investment of resources, not to cover yourself in case Sale can't go.