What's the Best Approach to Rebuilding

[The Ultimate Champion]

OTOH, the only thing that avoided this rebuilding process in the first place was the injection of Alexei, Carlos Quentin, Floyd and Danks into the 2008 team...and living off Buehrle/Dye/AJ/Konerko/Crede/Rowand/Jenks as long as possible.

Alexei = FA signing out of Latin America, as was Dayan, and we've made a few of those recently.

 

CQ got here by trading Chris Carter, who at the time was another prospect with major flaws in his game who couldn't get recognition as a game-wide top-100 prospect. The guy we got in return would have had an MVP if he hadn't been angry and stupid at the same time. We're still holding talented-but-unheralded prospects other teams want, and there are always players in other organizations that have fallen out of favor. There's no reason to believe we can't come up with something, maybe not like Q, but good enough.

 

Floyd and Danks got here by trading a young SP from an area of excess (check) and trading a vet with a year remaining (check). With the right moves we can do that again.

 

Paulie we picked up via trade for a good young MLB player we developed but thought we didn't want/need. We have this also and can make that kind of deal with Viciedo if we found the right guy.

 

Jenks = waiver claim. We're in a good waiver spot now.

 

AJ & JD were smart FA signings on a budget. Hahn's best trait so far is his contract negotiation ability.

 

Out of all those players you mentioned we have developed only 3 of those players ourselves: Buehrle (38th round, 1139 overall), Rowand (1st round, 35th overall), and Crede (5th round, 137 overall). Note how the highest pick wasn't all that high and he's also the lesser of the 3.

 

Caulfield, I know you have been around here for a while. I remember you back from the WSI days. I have been on Sox boards since 2003 and the one recurring theme all these years (aside from hating ownership, the GM, and some of the best pieces of franchise history) is that the fans always want to rebuild at the first sign of trouble/weakness and yet at the same time they absolutely cannot stand losing. What the Sox have done is turn that 2003 team (remember all those rebuild calls after choking on the Twins?) and turned it into a World Champ 2 years later. Then they turned that stacked, but ultimately disappointing 2006 team into another division winner 2 years later, a veteran team of course, but one led by youth in Danks, Floyd, Quentin, Alexei. After that came the Ozzie ego years, but there is no doubt those 2011 & 2012 squads had the talent to win. We're here where we are now because the players didn't win, and so we're in another down period where we're waiting to form our next core, which BTW with potentially 4 good LHSP we're probably not too far away from.

 

What the Sox have done, at least since I've been hanging around these miserable online fan forums, is basically spit in the faces of the rebuilders again and again and prove that they don't need to do it Cubbie style (another name for rape IMO) and can put out good, quality playoff type teams after short down periods by capitalizing on their scounting ability, mainly with players in other organizations. By making that list you've pretty much admitted they've done that but yet here we all are with our hate and anger and fire breath, and I don't think that's called for.

[Chicago White Sox]

Cubs are absolutely doing it the right way. Whether it works or not who knows, but that's the way to do it.

 

Simply discrediting it because it's the Cubs is silly, plus it's all new management anyway.

Well no, it's not the right way to do things, at least not anymore. The new CBA has made traditional rebuilding much more difficult and risky.

 

Also, I love how some people are actually envious of the Cubs' situation. Go talk to Cubs fans and see how excited they are about where their organization currently stands. Having zero chance to win at the beginning of a season sucks balls and so does realizing that will be the case for the next three or four seasons if not even more. Most Cubs fans were on board for Theo's full rebuilding at first, but after seeing the sacrifices required first hand most are already tired of it and it's only been two years. This would be no different for White Sox fans.

[caulfield12]

The cherry on top of that is the kind of fans the team does draw to the ballpark.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Cubs are absolutely doing it the right way. Whether it works or not who knows, but that's the way to do it.

 

Simply discrediting it because it's the Cubs is silly, plus it's all new management anyway.

IMO the "right way" is compiling a good team built on pitching and defense that has enough long-term controllable pieces to mix in vets on short deals and provide for the failings of young players, and ideally this team contains many contracts which, if high in annual $$$ amount, are over after short periods, but most contracts are in the arb or pre-arb stage, where most players (non-stars) are generally going to be both at their most productive levels and also cost-efficient.

 

Now, if I'm wrong and "the right way" is actually about throwing money at unproven prospects and bad vets to make them go away, and also, if it means filling the field with garbage (beyond what the fans are expected to throw on there normally) then I guess they are doing it the right way, because they suck balls and just about none of the financial commitments have translated into anything of real on-field value, and aren't expected to do so until *maybe* a few years from now.

 

No fan wants to go through summer with baseball nothing more than an afterthought. Baseball is fun, summer is fun, it's nice to have the two together. Cubs fans are miserable now and hoping for the future... gee so that's so different from how it's been these last x number of years. I'm at least glad the Sox want to win at some point here. I disagreed with Hahn's offseason but the offseason I thought he should have had might be coming in about a month and a half, maybe early if KW is throwing s*** around in his cushy new office.

[LittleHurt05]

Ticket sales wise at least the Sox benefit from when the Cubs are drawing 40,000 per because if you want to see a MLB game you have to buy a Sox ticket.

 

Or you buy a Cubs ticket on StubHub?

[Jack Parkman]

I would also like to add this nugget to the conversation: I think the continued losing on the north side has turned the Sox fan mentality into the Yankees fan mentality. WS or bust every year. "If I don't think this team has a good chance to win the WS, I'm not going." This leaves only the die-hards going to the game each year. It is also a damn shame that in 111 years of baseball the White Sox have never made the postseason 2 seasons in a row.

Edited April 22, 2013 by Elgin Slim

[KPBears]

My response to anyone calling the Astros a positive example is going to be pretty simple. They had a game last year where 1100 people watched. On TV.

 

The 4th biggest city in the country, with no competition, drew 1100 viewers on TV for a game last year. On a weekend.

 

The Astros have 2 winning records since 2006, They have an 82 win season and an 86 win season. They've been under .500 for the last 4 years, they've sold off whatever talent they had, and they still are facing several more years of being the laughingstock of baseball and having no interest whatsoever before they'd be able to rebuild through the draft.

 

The White Sox have legit competition in their area, even if that team is also terrible. The end result of a period of 5-8 years losing by the White Sox right now is going to be the end of the White Sox. They would either be moving or close to folding. The Chicago market will not be that forgiving.

 

Oh, and welcome to the site .

 

Your point about the Astros extended problems is well taken, but their current GM is only in his 2nd year, so you can't blame him for the several bad years before that (and to be fair, you can't really blame him for a bad year last year, or probably for a few more as he inherited a terrible team). But the point I'm trying to make is that I like the direction they're going in now. The honesty about the current situation and the direction, and the promise to spend money in a few years if things work out. While there's no certainty that things will work out for them, I think the promise to spend money in a few years is actually a very powerful and positive statement. If the Astros have a few prospects break out, and look like they're on the cusp of competing in a few years, and their management fails to add to payroll at that point, their team will be facing a pr disaster. And as I also mentioned, Houston seems to now be copying the Tigers model, which has worked out very well. It's unlikely that the Sox (or any team) will hit on a young pitcher who turns into Verlander, or picks up another team's young position player who turns into Cabrera. But I like the idea of being patient while drafting and developing, and then spending when the time is right (and the Sox, Tigers and Astros may not be the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers, but they are not among the poor teams like the Royals and Pirates).

 

Of course, this is all easier said than done. If I was that smart at building a baseball team, I'd be living in a much bigger house, but would probably see my family a lot less.

[LittleHurt05]

I would also like to add this nugget to the conversation: I think the continued losing on the north side has turned the Sox fan mentality into the Yankees fan mentality. WS or bust every year. "If I don't think this team has a good chance to win the WS, I'm not going." This leaves only the die-hards going to the game each year. It is also a damn shame that in 111 years of baseball the White Sox have never made the postseason 2 seasons in a row.

 

The fanbase has always been like that. The only times there were near-sellouts every day were when the new stadium was built and after the World Series.

[caulfield12]

Your point about the Astros extended problems is well taken, but their current GM is only in his 2nd year, so you can't blame him for the several bad years before that (and to be fair, you can't really blame him for a bad year last year, or probably for a few more as he inherited a terrible team). But the point I'm trying to make is that I like the direction they're going in now. The honesty about the current situation and the direction, and the promise to spend money in a few years if things work out. While there's no certainty that things will work out for them, I think the promise to spend money in a few years is actually a very powerful and positive statement. If the Astros have a few prospects break out, and look like they're on the cusp of competing in a few years, and their management fails to add to payroll at that point, their team will be facing a pr disaster. And as I also mentioned, Houston seems to now be copying the Tigers model, which has worked out very well. It's unlikely that the Sox (or any team) will hit on a young pitcher who turns into Verlander, or picks up another team's young position player who turns into Cabrera. But I like the idea of being patient while drafting and developing, and then spending when the time is right (and the Sox, Tigers and Astros may not be the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers, but they are not among the poor teams like the Royals and Pirates).

 

Of course, this is all easier said than done. If I was that smart at building a baseball team, I'd be living in a much bigger house, but would probably see my family a lot less.

 

 

I'm not really sure how you can say there is anything resembling a Tigers' model, in comparison to the Astros.

 

Maybe the respective markets for baseball, perhaps.

 

But you have an owner in DET who will stop at nothing to win a World Series, and just gave his ace one of the most potentially risky contracts in recent baseball history. Hard to imagine the Stros doing that.

 

They got Scherzer in trade for Edwin Jackson, so they didn't develop their own ace #2, they simply made a very good trade. In fact, Porcello, their own homegrown player has been one of their biggest disappointments and is on the verge of being out of the rotation. Same thing with Anibal Sanchez and Doug Fister, both acquired from other organizations in trade.

 

With Cabrera, they had a talented enough minor league system that they could outbit the White Sox and other teams with Maybin and Andrew Miller, who were both perceived as top 50 talent at the time of the deal. The White Sox didn't have enough to offer, unfortunately.

 

Fielder, that was all about money, and having the luxury of being able to go out and spend and not have to wait on Victor Martinez to come back in 2013.

 

Austin Jackson was a brilliant move for them, as Granderson was becoming homer happy and struggling mightily against LHP to the point where he was considered a platoon candidate...so they flipped him for a cheaper leadoff hitter who has matured into one of the best all-around CFers in baseball today.

 

Peralta and Infante were also acquired via trade.

 

Some of the best players they developed, like Inge and Zumaya, didn't end up lasting. They have had a knack for bringing up minor league outfielders (Boesch, Clete Thomas, Avisail Garcia, Andy Dirks, Worth, Don Kelly) who were at least capable of playing at replacement level of higher.

 

 

 

BUT, if you look at almost all of the players they acquired, NONE of them were really prospects, with the possible exception of Scherzer, although even Max had significant time already pitching with the DBacks before that trade. It's not as if he was the equivalent of Erik Johnson or Snodgress in our minor league system, this was a guy with all the potential in the world if he could put everything together.

[caulfield12]

The rebuilding team and model that's closest to us is the Mariners...

 

They kept Felix Hernandez and tried to build around him.

 

Huge fanbase, sellouts, new stadium...but their success of a decade ago has worn off almost completely, just like the 2005 World Series in Chicago.

 

And they finally traded their last marketable star in Ichiro, just like the White Sox will eventually do with Konerko. Leaving no homegrown stars, other than Chris Sale, who doesn't even see a significant walk-up in terms of ticket sales on the days in which he's pitching.

[The Ultimate Champion]

The Tigers model?

 

The Tigers were horrible for a number of years and watched supposedly excellent prospects fizzle out and turn into bench players, or like Carlos Pena, break out elsewhere.; The Tigers got back on top following two massive overpays to Magglio Ordonez and Ivan Rodriguez, coupled with a couple nice trades, namely acquiring Carlos Guillen, and then getting a few good years out of Bonderman did it.

 

After that the Tigers were in a mess of really bad deals. Robertson, Guillen, Inge, Ordonez, Bonderman, Willis, etc. you looked anywhere and there was a bad contract. Their owner ate it - here's something the Cubs are doing - and the big move there was picking up Edwin Jackson from the Rays and trading him with Granderson for Scherzer and Austin Jackson, which is one of the best deals a team can ever make. Drafting Verlander doesn't count, because he's the best pitcher of his generation and one of the best pitchers to ever live, and players like that simply do not come around, you don't get them. They offered the right mix to the Marlins for Cabrera though, but the package they offered turned out to be vastly inferior to the one we offered, and so you really have to credit the Marlins for making that deal happen. Especially since no team other the Marlins are cheap and petty enough to trade a young Miguel Cabrera.

 

What the Tigers did that the Cubs can do is overpay for free agents and then eat the bad deals that result, and then look to acquire big names in trades when they are out there because they can afford it. Tearing everything down didn't help the Tigers: the centerpiece of the Cabrera deal was Maybin who fell in the draft due to signability issues, same way they got Porcello. The draft has changed and this stuff isn't going to be happening all the time like it had been. What the Cubs need to do is make those Austin Jackson/Max Scherzer deals, find the Doug Fisters, find the Carlos Guillens, etc. and you don't need to load the field with garbage to make that happen. In fact, the better pieces you have out there, the better the return. For instance, rather than toss all that money at Soler and Concepcion, what if they had waited until the end of FA, signed Bourn and whoever else was out there, and then ate a bunch of money and sent those players off for prospects at the AA level or above? Because if money -> prospects -> core of good pre-arb players is the gameplan, there are other ways of doing it while still putting something viable on the field.

[caulfield12]

The Tigers model?

 

The Tigers were horrible for a number of years and watched supposedly excellent prospects fizzle out and turn into bench players, or like Carlos Pena, break out elsewhere.; The Tigers got back on top following two massive overpays to Magglio Ordonez and Ivan Rodriguez, coupled with a couple nice trades, namely acquiring Carlos Guillen, and then getting a few good years out of Bonderman did it.

 

After that the Tigers were in a mess of really bad deals. Robertson, Guillen, Inge, Ordonez, Bonderman, Willis, etc. you looked anywhere and there was a bad contract. Their owner ate it - here's something the Cubs are doing - and the big move there was picking up Edwin Jackson from the Rays and trading him with Granderson for Scherzer and Austin Jackson, which is one of the best deals a team can ever make. Drafting Verlander doesn't count, because he's the best pitcher of his generation and one of the best pitchers to ever live, and players like that simply do not come around, you don't get them. They offered the right mix to the Marlins for Cabrera though, but the package they offered turned out to be vastly inferior to the one we offered, and so you really have to credit the Marlins for making that deal happen. Especially since no team other the Marlins are cheap and petty enough to trade a young Miguel Cabrera.

 

What the Tigers did that the Cubs can do is overpay for free agents and then eat the bad deals that result, and then look to acquire big names in trades when they are out there because they can afford it. Tearing everything down didn't help the Tigers: the centerpiece of the Cabrera deal was Maybin who fell in the draft due to signability issues, same way they got Porcello. The draft has changed and this stuff isn't going to be happening all the time like it had been. What the Cubs need to do is make those Austin Jackson/Max Scherzer deals, find the Doug Fisters, find the Carlos Guillens, etc. and you don't need to load the field with garbage to make that happen. In fact, the better pieces you have out there, the better the return. For instance, rather than toss all that money at Soler and Concepcion, what if they had waited until the end of FA, signed Bourn and whoever else was out there, and then ate a bunch of money and sent those players off for prospects at the AA level or above? Because if money -> prospects -> core of good pre-arb players is the gameplan, there are other ways of doing it while still putting something viable on the field.

 

Soler never made sense for the White Sox...definitely not Concepcion, that was a CLASSIC overpay, when we had our own stable of LH pitchers already.

 

The ones that we can legitimately argue about are Cespedes and Puig with the Dodgers...but we can't go back and reverse the Dunn signing or the Danks extension. Those two big financial disasters (potential in the Danks case) are weighing on our future the most heavily.

 

We do ditch smaller deals like Linebrink or MacDougal, or Teahen, essentially, by packaging him with Edwin Jackson.

 

That's the symbol of the White Sox right there, unfortunately...not eating Teahen's contract and getting nothing back for Edwin Jackson. Both Swisher trades. And the Daniel Hudson trade. All of them have gone decidedly against the White Sox and weakened our major league team considerably.

 

With either Gio or a healthy Daniel Hudson, we're probably not talking about a rebuild at all...we're trading the likes of Quintana/Santiago to get another impact bat.

Edited April 22, 2013 by caulfield12

[GreatScott82]

Caulfield, I know you have been around here for a while. I remember you back from the WSI days. I have been on Sox boards since 2003 and the one recurring theme all these years (aside from hating ownership, the GM, and some of the best pieces of franchise history) is that the fans always want to rebuild at the first sign of trouble/weakness and yet at the same time they absolutely cannot stand losing. What the Sox have done is turn that 2003 team (remember all those rebuild calls after choking on the Twins?) and turned it into a World Champ 2 years later. Then they turned that stacked, but ultimately disappointing 2006 team into another division winner 2 years later, a veteran team of course, but one led by youth in Danks, Floyd, Quentin, Alexei. After that came the Ozzie ego years, but there is no doubt those 2011 & 2012 squads had the talent to win. We're here where we are now because the players didn't win, and so we're in another down period where we're waiting to form our next core, which BTW with potentially 4 good LHSP we're probably not too far away from.

I agree with the 'finding a new core' of young players mentality. This is similar to the 2008 squad (Alexie, Quentin, Danks, Floyd). However, its time to cut the strings on guys will no longer be apart of the 'next core'. Guys like Beckham, Dunn, Floyd need to move on to make room for younger talent. Beckham can sure field like a Gold Glover, but the dude can't hit! He has had waaaay too long to prove himself. Aaron Roward didn't even have this much slack before he turned things around with the bat. He was replaced in 2003 with Everett and it wasn't until 2004 where he found himself offensively. Dunn has been a nightmare to watch as a fan. His RBI production was nice last year, but his average and strike out rates are an absolute JOKE!

 

I think Hahn has a lot of work to do this winter and perhaps even at the trade deadline. We need to plan for the future. They cant be afraid to trade guys like Beckham and Ramirez any longer. Lets bring in some new outside talent...lets reestablish that core and be competitive again....One thing I have always admired about KW- was his creativity with deals. Finding guys like Jenks, Floyd, Thorton, Iguchi, Quentin, Ramirez, Viciedo out of nowhere is what a successful GM has to do. I am not sure if im that as confident in Hahn at this point to be creative and re-tool a roster that obviously needs a face lift.

Edited April 22, 2013 by GreatScott82

[caulfield12]

The White Sox showed a lot of patience with Crede and Rowand.

 

Downside to the "all in" or competing year-in, year-out is a player like Trayce Thompson or Mitchell would come up and immediately be sent down if they struggled in their first 50 AB's. It happened with Brian Anderson, it happened with Borchard, it happened with Ryan Sweeney.

 

We'll see how patient Hahn is with Flowers this year, as well as Beckham (when he returns) and Viciedo.

 

Beckham's still young to be part of the future, but his ROI is lessening dramatically unless he's putting up a 725-750 OPS instead of a 625-650 OPS, despite his defensive ability.

 

Because right now, there aren't very many positions besides RF where we are getting above average AL production...we can't afford to have many "defense first" players or we'll end up being a 75-78 win team that's just treading water and completely boring to watch 81 home games at USCF.

Edited April 22, 2013 by caulfield12

[Jake]

I think clever GM'ing rebuilds just fine. There is no advantage in being bad. You can rebuild without losing a million games, you just quit spending bad money.

 

We have the payroll and the market to always be somewhat competitive. We can buy superstars if we want to. This isn't the NBA, there is no cap space to clear, Derrick Rose isn't waiting with the number 1 pick.

[Soxfest]

If rebuilding is what the Sox have to do then let Hahn do it, no more Kenny Williams veto power BS. Kenny needs to go and give Hahn a real chance to clean up mess Williams left.

[Jake]

If rebuilding is what the Sox have to do then let Hahn do it, no more Kenny Williams veto power BS. Kenny needs to go and give Hahn a real chance to clean up mess Williams left.

 

I don't think Hahn is the right one to clean house, if for whatever reason the organization wanted to do some extensive rebuilding/retooling. I'm sure he is different from Kenny, but he has been a willing participant in the current state of the organization, for better and worse. KW was the boss, but it had always been clear that Hahn had very important input. It is hard to say exactly how much of the roster is the way it is because of Rick, but we can certainly say that it has much to do with him. He will have the same sunk-cost fallacy type of biases and the like that KW would have.

 

That said, let's have this season play out a bit more before we go straight to the rebuild option.

[Cali]

This team has no excitement currently and no clear vision for the future. That is a deadly combo that makes me wanna tune out.

[caulfield12]

Balta pointed out our attendance would sink even more in a rebuild...

 

Well, we had the least attended game in the majors yesterday. Nobody else was under 20,000 in announced attendance.

 

 

Cincy drew almost 29,000 to see them play the mighty Marlins.

Pittsburgh drew almost 21,000.

Houston drew 22,005 to see that incredible draw, the Cleveland Indians.

Tampa Bay had almost 26,000 to see them play the A's.

 

Our attendance was a measly 19,587.

 

And someone please explain how the Blue Jays can suddenly spend so much money and draw an average of well over 32,000 per game now?

 

Other than Konerko, is there any player on our roster being off the team that would cause the attendance to go down to 17,500 or even 15,000 per game? I'm not seeing it.

 

In fact, there would be a LOT more enthusiasm for young/hungry players under 25 years old than the likes of veterans like Adam Dunn, Jeff Keppinger, Alexei Ramirez, DeAza, Rios, Konerko, D-Wise, etc.

 

The only young players we have in the line-up are Gillaspie, Viciedo, Beckham and Flowers. At least half the fanbase thinks Beckham's a bust, Flowers will be a bust and SOME here are even arguing Viciedo already is one. What does that leave?

 

How can it get much worse?

 

 

 

[caulfield12]

Here's ONE example of an innovation/plan/model the Astros are using....I don't think I've ever seen any type of plan announced for our minor league system, for developing younger/raw/athletic hitters, we just get "blog" calls where Buddy Bell hypes up everyone in the system, whether it's Tyler Flowers or Jared Mitchell.

 

 

 

 

KISSIMMEE, Fla. – General manager Jeff Luhnow’s imprint on the Astros’ top-to-bottom organizational rebuild is about to become even stronger.

 

The Astros will employ a tandem “piggyback” starting rotation at all levels of their minor-league system in 2013: Class AAA Oklahoma City, AA Corpus Christi, High A Lancaster and Low A Quad Cities.

 

“I don’t believe that it’s ever been done (in baseball) at the Triple-A and Double-A levels,” Luhnow said. “It’s been done at the lower levels. … When I was the Cardinals, we did it at both of the A-ball levels.”

 

He added: “It worked very well. It’s anecdotal. But we found pitchers were healthier and we suffered very few injuries as a result of this.”

 

Luhnow hinted at the idea during the offseason. After evaluating the Astros’ big-league team and minor-league players throughout spring training, the GM recently made a decision to make the ground-breaking move.

 

“Pitchers who pitch well get the same amount of innings as they would get in a five-man rotation,” Luhnow said. “It enables you to guarantee all eight of those starters innings. … What happens in a five-man rotation a lot of times is middle relievers get a whole lot of innings. And we feel like these eight starters at all four of our full-season (minor-league) levels are the priority to get the innings.”

 

Astros’ AAA starters: Righthander Jordan Lyles, R John Ely, R Jarred Cosart, lefthander Rudy Owens, R Paul Clemens, L Brett Oberholtzer, L Dallas Keuchel, R Jose Cisnero.

 

“The primary purpose is to allocate your innings to your starters and not limit it to your starters,” Luhnow said. “We’ve got more than five. You could argue we have nine. We’ve really got nine (AAA) starters.”

 

The Astros’ AAA starters will be placed in four groups of two, with each group throwing every fifth day. Rather than predetermine the team’s 1-5 rotation, Luhnow wants the team’s top five starters at each minor-league level to “emerge.”

 

“They’re pitching more frequently,” Luhnow said. “The person that starts the game the first time around will … not start the game the second time around. So in other words, group one, the starter will either go five innings or 75 pitches, whichever comes first. The second starter will go four innings or 60 pitches, whichever comes first.”

 

He added: “Everybody should get work. But we guarantee the work to the eight starters.”

 

Edgar Gonzalez will hold a long-relief role in Oklahoma City.

 

Astros relievers at all minor-league levels will be used to “bridge gaps” and sometimes finish close games.

 

“The manager has some discretion, as far as being able to bring in a reliever,” Luhnow said.

 

Ross Seaton and Nick Tropeano will be among the team’s AA starters.

 

Top-10 prospect Mike Foltynewicz will begin the season at Lancaster.

 

Luhnow said the Astros are primarily moving to a top-to-bottom tandem method because of the rebuilding club’s buildup of young arms at all levels of the minors.

 

“This was based off our current situation in 2013 and the number of starting pitchers that we acquired last offseason, that we acquired during the trades the past season and that we have signed through the draft,” Luhnow said. “Starting pitching is something that we want to be very good at developing.

 

“Not that it’s a one-way street. But once you take a guy out of the rotation and put him in the bullpen, it’s harder for them to get back. And so we want to delay that as young as possible and give them all an opportunity to show us whether or not they’re starting pitchers over the long haul. This is the best way to do it.”

 

The Astros won’t use the tandem method for the entire 2013 season and Luhnow acknowledged everything from injuries to attrition could affect the move. But the Astros are embracing their minor-league depth and Luhnow is fleshing out a pitching system he first touched upon during his tenure with St. Louis.

 

“I don’t expect that this system will be in place the whole year,” Luhnow said. “It’s really an extension of spring training, to a certain extent. Normally what happens is you have a promotion, you might have an injury, you might have one player who doesn’t stay up with the pack. At some point, we will probably go back to a five-man rotation at all of the full-season levels.”

 

Luhnow said, among the many reasons behind the tandem push, is a “credible” theory that starting pitchers suffer injuries after they become fatigued late in a game and hit a 90-to-120 pitch count.

 

“We protect our young arms by not allowing them to get that far,” Luhnow said.

 

Brian T. Smith/Houston Chronicle/blogspot

[caulfield12]

Move the Astros? Seriously? Next discussion topic please

Posted on April 21, 2013 at 7:47 pm by Chip Bailey in General, Houston Astros

 

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Did I miss the memo? Is there a rumor on a website I didn’t notice? Did MLB send out an edict or ultimatum?

 

Where is this discussion emanating from about moving the Astros? Charlotte? Portland? Las Vegas?

 

“The Astros are not going to stay in Houston. That’s the story. Get after it Chronicle.”

“…well on your way to achieving your goal of moving the team…”

“…wonder where Jim Crane is going to move this team? To the Carolina’s I’d say”

Get serious folks. The Astros are here for the long haul. True, there is a very vocal minority who wants to bark about every poor move, PR fiasco or the latest conspiracy theory, but frankly, the Astros aren’t going anywhere.

 

Most Houstonians aren’t even paying attention to the Astros right now. Guess what? Owner Jim Crane, president George Postolos and GM Jeff Luhnow realize that. They also genuinely believe they have the ballclub headed in the right direction and expect fans to start taking interest sooner rather than laterthough .

 

Moreover, two short seasons into their administration, there’s too much invested to cut ties and run. Much of the heavy lifting of a new business — and this is a new business — is front-loaded. Still, while there are a myriad reasons why the team is moving, here are five good ones that lead the pack.

 

1. The long-term deal with Houston Sports Authority.

 

The relocation penalty in the contract that runs through 2029 is huge. Huge! For example, according to the Non-Relocation Agreement between the Astros and the Harris County-Houston Sports Authority, the Astros would owe HSA $150 million if they decided to move today. The fee drops the longer the club is at Minute Maid (e.g. it’s $75 million in 2023), but the Agreement clearly states that the organization “…shall not relocate the Astros or the home territory of the Astros outside the boundaries of the City and the County.” Frankly, the Astros have a pretty sweet deal in Houston, why mess with that?

2. The TV deal.

 

Yeah, I know there are all sorts of challenges with Comcast, and each side is waiting for the other to blink. But it’s a marathon, not a sprint, and sooner or later, it’s likely that both will blink to some degree. Heck, the Astros are part owners in what will be a multi-million dollar company, so it’s in their best interest to see it through.

3. The minor league teams in the region.

 

Last I noticed, the Astros’ AA team played in Corpus Christi and they were attempting to purchase the AAA New Orleans franchise and move it closer to Houston. Sure, moving a minor league franchise wouldn’t be the biggest challenge for a possible new ownership, but the current scenario doesn’t sound like an owner hoping to move to another market, does it?

4. Follow the money.

 

Would someone really want to pay $700-$800 million for a major league baseball team? Think of it this way: Do you think Crane was Drayton McLane’s first choice? In fact, he was the only choice in the end. There just aren’t that many people with that kind of change in their pockets. You can argue that Crane is going to bankrupt the organization — yes, that would be a game-changer — but the value of the team will cause MLB to insist on a huge price tag if it were to sell again. Assuming any new prospective owner looking to move the franchise would incur the huge sales price, probably have to tack on the Minute Maid relocation penalty and ante up for a new stadium in a new market like Charlotte, Portland or Las Vegas, it would be cost-prohibitive.

Yes, you can argue the Astros aren’t worth as much now as when Crane bought it, but it’s still a $600 million venture at minimum. And that’s just the sales price, without all the other rigmarole.

5. Fans.

 

Yes, that may not be you, but Houston has already demonstrated it will support a winner. For every naysayer, there are a dozen fans in the wings who’d support the team when it effectively turns things around. Perhaps not all would buy tickets, but many would watch TV, sign up for mlb.com, wear a jersey, show up at Academy to meet Larry (Dierker) and Jose (Cruz), or buy another ad at Minute Maid. Are they paying attention now? Probably not, but let some of the fruit of recent drafts and trades start to hit Minute Maid and the tide will turn. If you don’t like dynamic ticket pricing now, just wait.

In other words, if Crane wanted to move the team, now isn’t the time. Next year neither. Nor 2015. Not even 2020. Would you buy a house, then sell it for less than you paid? Better yet, would you buy your dream beach home, then turn around and sell it because you didn’t want to fix it up?

 

Next discussion topic please. This one should be over.

[caulfield12]

For the Astros, general manager Jeff Luhnow is the man with the plan

Posted on October 27, 2012 at 11:35 pm by Brian T. Smith in Astros, Astros/MLB, General

 

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Houston Astros General Manager Jeff Luhnow working in his office at Minute Maid Park Wednesday, Oct. 24, 2012, in Houston.

 

Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow was an architect. A painter. A peerless designer with grand plans that never stopped unfolding. A big-money business executive who’d outwork and outthink competition that prided itself on crushing outsiders.

 

How do you fix Houston’s Major League Baseball team? How do you save, revive and rebuild the Astros? How in the world do you turn 213 losses over the last two seasons into a clubhouse loaded with consistent winners, a youth movement fans actually want to buy into, and a franchise that eventually can do more than just scrape to stay off the American League’s bottom floor?

 

Luhnow has a vision. A team that is part Oakland Athletics and Tampa Bay Rays, part Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Dodgers. A club that grows and develops its players but can spend when it needs to thanks to increased revenue from a new television deal.

 

He laid out the plan in full last week, openly discussing the Astros’ unpredictable future the same day new manager Bo Porter evaluated the depth of the team’s 40-man roster and everyone from newly hired Moneyball-like analysts to old-school sales coordinators chiseled away at the organization’s public image.

 

The initial steps of Luhnow’s mission are complete. Since last December, when he traded eight years’ worth of annual success in St. Louis for a full-on rebuild at Minute Maid Park, the Astros’ propensity for losing games has been rivaled only by the franchise’s intent to clean house.

 

Familiar names are gone. New uniforms will be officially unveiled Friday. A Minute Maid upgrade awaits. Everything is being planned and orchestrated in the name of positive change. As the Astros’ major league roster hit financial and statistical rock bottom, a once-depleted farm system was being restocked.

 

An energized and enthusiastic Luhnow envisions more wins, more development, more progress. He sees an Astros organization that again resembles a major league franchise.

 

“We’d like to (watch) it go as fast as it can without making promises on any time frame,” he said. “This city deserves a baseball team that they’re not only proud of, they’re excited to come to the ballpark and watch. And I don’t think we’re that far away from being able to deliver.”

 

The pipeline

 

Many can be credited for the post-millennium success of the Cardinals, who in the last 13 seasons have made nine playoff appearances and won two World Series. Tony La Russa, Albert Pujols, Walt Jocketty and Bill Dewitt Jr. all played crucial roles. So did Luhnow.

 

His importance was brought to light during St. Louis’ recent National League Championship Series battle against San Francisco via an e-mail from DeWitt, the Cardinals’ owner. Eight of the nine players in one of the Cardinals’ lineups were procured under Luhnow’s watch, DeWitt said in the message, and the ninth — Matt Holliday — was acquired in a trade.

 

“(Luhnow) never drafted at the top of the draft in St. Louis, and he wasn’t in the position to be the most aggressive spender … and in his early drafts, he drafted more players than anybody who eventually became major leaguers,” Astros president George Postolos said. “The difference between what we yielded in the ’05, ’06, ’07 drafts and what Jeff yielded is (huge).”

 

Luhnow is attempting to plant the same deep roots in Houston. The growth already has begun, highlighted by prospects including Jonathan Singleton, George Springer, Jarred Cosart, Carlos Correa and Delino DeShields. Throw in young pitchers such as Mike Foltynewicz and Vincent Velasquez, and a system that spiraled downward in recent years could crack Minor League Baseball’s top 10 in the near future.

 

Since Luhnow took over, the Astros have emphasized improved player promotion — moving a prospect upward only when his play and development merited reward — reconfigured roles and departments, and blended new-age evaluation gurus (Sig Mejdal, Mike Fast, Kevin Goldstein) with traditional player analysis. Leading the charge: scouting director Mike Elias, who spent five years working with Luhnow in St. Louis.

 

“One of the things that we’re doing here — and I think we’re going to do exceptionally well — is linking everything together so there are no (breaks),” Luhnow said. “The guy who runs international feels like he’s connected to the front office. … Everybody has their area of expertise. But the more we can be sharing experiences and collaborating on things, I think the more we can be better as a team.”

 

Is the next Mike Trout, Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper lurking somewhere? Unlikely. Is the Astros’ farm system already deeper and richer during 11 months under Luhnow than it was in the previous five years? Unquestionably.

 

Luhnow compared the enterprise to annually managing $20 million in raw materials that eventually should be worth $80 million in assets. By fully developing the raw product and maximizing its worth, proceeds can be funneled back into the pipeline at the same time the Astros’ on-the-field product noticeably improves.

 

“We are in a zero-sum game at the end of the day. A win for us is a loss for someone else,” Luhnow said. “There (are) certain things where the industry gets smarter and better as a whole. But we’re still competing with one another on a daily basis, so our advantage needs to come at someone else’s disadvantage. … You can gain an edge in 50 different areas that add up to a meaningful edge.”

The Show

 

Harvesting a deep annual crop of prospects loaded with playable and tradeable talent is one thing. Translating the proceeds into major league victories and regular playoff appearances is another.

 

“It’s developing from within your organization, then being able to make a trade or sign a free agent that will make a difference on your ballclub,” Texas Rangers CEO Nolan Ryan said. “If you look at our ballclub and where we are, we built more off trades and free agency than we have from within our system. But what has happened is, our system allowed us to make some trades.”

 

The Astros’ immediate fortune belongs to Porter. Specifically hired for his inner drive and intelligence, Porter has as his primary tasks teaching and inspiring. Backed by a revamped coaching staff that includes former Baltimore manager Dave Trembley, Porter must instill a major league mentality in a team that fell apart 45 games into 2012 and finished 42 games out of first place.

 

“Discipline is going to be pretty good in the Bo Porter environment,” said Luhnow, who’s considering giving Porter a top-floor office at Minute Maid to help him blend in with the executive ranks. “Because he’s going to have high expectations, he’s going to be very clear about what he wants and how it needs to be done. And he’s also going to be very proactive in disciplining players who aren’t performing to his expectations.”

 

Free-agent veterans are expected to provide additional leadership. Luhnow hinted there’s a chance the Astros will “hit the jackpot” during the offseason, bringing in a couple big names who could power up a porous offense while putting fans back in Minute Maid’s empty seats.

 

The Astros will truly begin to spend owner Jim Crane’s millions once the farm system begins to regularly produce MLB-ready talent. Increased revenue from a new television partnership with Comcast and improved gate receipts, combined with Houston’s big-city allure, are wrapped up in Luhnow’s vision. The Astros of the future: a team combining the A’s energy and GM Billy Beane’s inside-baseball vision with the Rangers’ annual power.

 

How long will the rebuild take? Two years? Five? What if the blueprint fails and the Astros — the worst team in baseball for two consecutive seasons — become the next Pittsburgh Pirates?

 

“You compare our roster to the Rangers, we’re not there yet,” Luhnow said. “But will we be in five years? I hope so. Will our payroll be up in the range where it can compete with the Rangers? I hope so. But for now, we’re not even close. So we know we have our work cut out for us.

“I think what’ll be fun for our fans is to experience the cycle on the way up. Our fans have gone through the painful experience of the cycle on the way down, from the World Series in 2005 to basically two 100-loss seasons in a row. This is as far down as it goes. From here going forward, it goes up.”

[The Ginger Kid]

I'm not looking forward to consecutive 90 loss seasons, but if Hahn seems to have a smart plan in place, I'm willing to stick by him and see what happens. And I think the Tigers/Astros model could work for the Sox. But if anyone has other rebuilding ideas, I'd love to hear them. Sorry for the long post, by the way.

Great post for discussion -- welcome.

 

I'm with you, give Hahn a chance on his own terms. You've been grooming him for this, lets see what he can do. Part of me always hoped that Dave Dombrowski would find his way back to the white sox, but those days are gone. Like La Russa, Hawk f***ed that one up too.

 

But I don't like the idea of rebuilding by trading everything of value so you can run out a roster like Houston's. Even the cubs couldn't get away with that for long. I don't think you have to be so bad for so long to suddenly be good. The teams you mentioned like KC, DET and PIT, were plagued by poor management and a lack of talent in the front office making decisions. I don't think the Sox are in that predicament. I think the fan base would absolutely support a young team that shows promise, even if it means taking your lumps and enduring say one 70-win season. As long as there is improvement and fans can clearly see what they're trying to build. And the Sox do have some enticing pieces to trade with JP, Gavin, Rios, and Ramirez, to name a few. You won't get a Greinke haul but I imagine if you packaged JP and Rios to a team in July who was contending and had those specific needs, you'd do all right. Who knows, you might even get a legitimate 3B prospect....imagine that.

[caulfield12]

Great post for discussion -- welcome.

 

I'm with you, give Hahn a chance on his own terms. You've been grooming him for this, lets see what he can do. Part of me always hoped that Dave Dombrowski would find his way back to the white sox, but those days are gone. Like La Russa, Hawk f***ed that one up too.

 

But I don't like the idea of rebuilding by trading everything of value so you can run out a roster like Houston's. Even the cubs couldn't get away with that for long. I don't think you have to be so bad for so long to suddenly be good. The teams you mentioned like KC, DET and PIT, were plagued by poor management and a lack of talent in the front office making decisions. I don't think the Sox are in that predicament. I think the fan base would absolutely support a young team that shows promise, even if it means taking your lumps and enduring say one 70-win season. As long as there is improvement and fans can clearly see what they're trying to build. And the Sox do have some enticing pieces to trade with JP, Gavin, Rios, and Ramirez, to name a few. You won't get a Greinke haul but I imagine if you packaged JP and Rios to a team in July who was contending and had those specific needs, you'd do all right. Who knows, you might even get a legitimate 3B prospect....imagine that.

 

They might also have to include either Reed or Jones to make that blockbuster trade...or Lindstrom/Crain/Thornton for a team needing veteran relievers for the stretch drive.

 

 

 

Pedro Alvarez would be an obvious choice for "change of scenery."

 

Then you have Sano (Twins) and Castellanos (Tigers) not going to the Sox.

 

That leaves:

 

Mike Olt--TEX

Anthony Rendon--WASH

Nolan Arenado--COL

Kaleb Cowart--LAA

Jedd Gyorko--SD

Matt Davidson--ARZ

Trevor Story--COL

 

 

 

 

By the way, the Astros have the #13, 27, 37, 50 and 99 prospects in the Top 100 for Baseball America.

 

We have one, in Courtney Hawkins (54), but possibly none in 2014 unless Erik Johnson makes it. Supposedly, Carlos Sanchez was in the 100-125 range, definitely Top 150.

 

 

[caulfield12]

Great post for discussion -- welcome.

 

I'm with you, give Hahn a chance on his own terms. You've been grooming him for this, lets see what he can do. Part of me always hoped that Dave Dombrowski would find his way back to the white sox, but those days are gone. Like La Russa, Hawk f***ed that one up too.

 

But I don't like the idea of rebuilding by trading everything of value so you can run out a roster like Houston's. Even the cubs couldn't get away with that for long. I don't think you have to be so bad for so long to suddenly be good. The teams you mentioned like KC, DET and PIT, were plagued by poor management and a lack of talent in the front office making decisions. I don't think the Sox are in that predicament. I think the fan base would absolutely support a young team that shows promise, even if it means taking your lumps and enduring say one 70-win season. As long as there is improvement and fans can clearly see what they're trying to build. And the Sox do have some enticing pieces to trade with JP, Gavin, Rios, and Ramirez, to name a few. You won't get a Greinke haul but I imagine if you packaged JP and Rios to a team in July who was contending and had those specific needs, you'd do all right. Who knows, you might even get a legitimate 3B prospect....imagine that.

 

They might also have to include either Reed or Jones to make that blockbuster trade...or Lindstrom/Crain/Thornton for a team needing veteran relievers for the stretch drive.

 

 

 

Pedro Alvarez would be an obvious choice for "change of scenery."

 

Then you have Sano (Twins) and Castellanos (Tigers) not going to the Sox.

 

That leaves:

 

Mike Olt--TEX

Anthony Rendon--WASH

Nolan Arenado--COL

Kaleb Cowart--LAA

Jedd Gyorko--SD

Matt Davidson--ARZ

Trevor Story--COL

 

 

 

 

By the way, the Astros have the #13, 27, 37, 50 and 99 prospects in the Top 100 for Baseball America.

 

We have one, in Courtney Hawkins (54), but possibly none in 2014 unless Erik Johnson makes it. Supposedly, Carlos Sanchez was in the 100-125 range, definitely Top 150.