Feeky Magee Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 06:03 PM) It's a good team, but that would be insane if we landed both Abreu and Tanaka. JR is obviously letting the budget go a bit on international stuff, but I cannot see him throw $50m at an NPB team just to sign another pitcher. Also, I think $100m is probably our absolute ceiling for next year, and I don't necessarily think it shouldn't be. When you throw so many guys together at once, sometimes it take them a bit to get used to playing with each other -- that's a ton of money to risk without having a clue if it's going to pay off. For example, is Abreu legit? I'm not sure I'd commit all that money if I wasn't sure if I was going to be a bat short or not. Third, I'm not sure why everyone seems to think the Padres would trade Headley for Beckham and Santiago. Beckham is practically worthless, and while Santiago should have some solid value, don't you think someone would best that offer? If that's the best they can do, I'd have to believe they'd hold onto him and hope he could re-establish value at the deadline. But, I like the thought process. I'd make all of those transactions in a vacuum, I just don't think they're really realistic. Also, are you non-tendering Beckham or trading him? Yeah it's not packed with realism. Reading up on Tanaka and comparing his numbers to others who've made the switch I'd be pretty confident he could provide 4-5 WAR per year which would make him a bargain if he went for anything near what I've said. Of course then you have to talk about if those wins matter in terms of are they just improving a bad team or making a decent team a contender. Just looking at the farm system, what you'd pay for a pitcher as good as that already in MLB, Santiago's possible regression etc., I think it'd be, like Abreu, a risk worth taking. But obviously it'd be insane and it won't happen, particularly with all the teams in on him. As regards Beckham, yeah my mistake, haha. You can actually see I edited my post, that was me non-tendering Beckham, forgetting I'd already traded him. This is what the White Sox get for hiring an Irishman as the GM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 09:26 PM) Yeah it's not packed with realism. Reading up on Tanaka and comparing his numbers to others who've made the switch I'd be pretty confident he could provide 4-5 WAR per year which would make him a bargain if he went for anything near what I've said. Of course then you have to talk about if those wins matter in terms of are they just improving a bad team or making a decent team a contender. Just looking at the farm system, what you'd pay for a pitcher as good as that already in MLB, Santiago's possible regression etc., I think it'd be, like Abreu, a risk worth taking. But obviously it'd be insane and it won't happen, particularly with all the teams in on him. As regards Beckham, yeah my mistake, haha. You can actually see I edited my post, that was me non-tendering Beckham, forgetting I'd already traded him. This is what the White Sox get for hiring an Irishman as the GM. The other thing to remember is that the white sox already have a strong, cheap starting rotation. If he added 4 War great, but if he's replacing a rookie who could give 2 WAR next year and 3 the next couple afterwards, that's a terrible move unless the white sox can get a great trade for that pitcher. Also, I think Santiago is more likely to improve than regress if he's not bounced back and forth To the pen and he already got some innings built up last year. That's the case if he's traded too, I think we hid a real value in the pen last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feeky Magee Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 07:46 PM) The other thing to remember is that the white sox already have a strong, cheap starting rotation. If he added 4 War great, but if he's replacing a rookie who could give 2 WAR next year and 3 the next couple afterwards, that's a terrible move unless the white sox can get a great trade for that pitcher. Also, I think Santiago is more likely to improve than regress if he's not bounced back and forth To the pen and he already got some innings built up last year. That's the case if he's traded too, I think we hid a real value in the pen last year. Well in my scenario he was moved along with Beckham for Headley who you'd think would turn out the same or more WAR and also plug a hole, but then of course you're paying Headley way more than Santiago. I didn't consider salary enough with regards replacing Santiago. I was talking to my buddy, a Tigers fan, about the Sox. He said he'd looked at Santiago's numbers in-depth and it looked to him like he was a strong candidate for regression. Then again, I heard the same thing said about Quintana before last season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 10:08 PM) Well in my scenario he was moved along with Beckham for Headley who you'd think would turn out the same or more WAR and also plug a hole, but then of course you're paying Headley way more than Santiago. I didn't consider salary enough with regards replacing Santiago. I was talking to my buddy, a Tigers fan, about the Sox. He said he'd looked at Santiago's numbers in-depth and it looked to him like he was a strong candidate for regression. Then again, I heard the same thing said about Quintana before last season. They totally screwed with Santiago this year and that really impacted him esp in the 2nd half, remember that. And if Keppinger isn't the worst player in history again, a Gillaspe/Keppinger has a shot at putting up similar numbers to Headley if he's not te ridiculous 2012 version of himself. At best again maybe there's another 2 WAR or so over that platoon, but giving up a player and over $10 million for that for only 1 year is a terrible move. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 07:07 PM) Why? Because he's Brandon Phillips. Can hit leadoff, second, third, fourth, even fifth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feeky Magee Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 08:44 PM) They totally screwed with Santiago this year and that really impacted him esp in the 2nd half, remember that. And if Keppinger isn't the worst player in history again, a Gillaspe/Keppinger has a shot at putting up similar numbers to Headley if he's not te ridiculous 2012 version of himself. At best again maybe there's another 2 WAR or so over that platoon, but giving up a player and over $10 million for that for only 1 year is a terrible move. Gotcha. Learning every day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 QUOTE (ChiSoxFan05 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 09:46 PM) Because he's Brandon Phillips. Can hit leadoff, second, third, fourth, even fifth. Do you realize what he hit this year? .261/.310/.396. We don't want a .310 OBP batting first or second, and we don't want a .396 SLG batting third, fourth, or fifth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 19, 2013 -> 01:49 AM) Do you realize what he hit this year? .261/.310/.396. We don't want a .310 OBP batting first or second, and we don't want a .396 SLG batting third, fourth, or fifth. He's a career ..280 hitter and he hits very well with RISP. Not to mention his defense is solid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GGajewski18 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Those talking about Phillips. Olney just retweeted something saying that the Braves want Phillips if the Reds take back Uggla and Braves would add a top prospect or 2. Can't get the tweet because I'm on my iPod. But there ya go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buehrle>Wood Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 QUOTE (ChiSoxFan05 @ Oct 19, 2013 -> 12:51 AM) Reds shopping Brandon Phillips. Beckham, Santiago, and Webb for Phillips? That would be horrible for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flavum Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 (edited) QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Oct 19, 2013 -> 10:24 AM) That would be horrible for us. Agreed. To me, every move the Sox make should be for Opening Day, 2015. Getting Phillips now is just the wrong move. If he's starting his career decline now, let him do that with a different team in 2014. Could you imagine if the Sox got him, he had an even worse offensive season in 2014, and the Sox are still on the hook for 3 yrs/39 mil in 2015-2017? Nah. Edited October 19, 2013 by flavum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 QUOTE (ChiSoxFan05 @ Oct 19, 2013 -> 10:06 AM) He's a career ..280 hitter and he hits very well with RISP. Not to mention his defense is solid. A solid-but-not-great batting average is not nearly as important as OBP/SLG numbers. Performance with RISP has been shown, without fail, not to accurately predict future performance with RISP. Gordon Beckham's defense is also solid. Career numbers are important, but with a guy that's entering his mid 30's, recency has a stronger effect, and you can expect performance to decline much more often than it improves or remains steady. And he's got a contract attached to him that will overpay him going forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buehrle>Wood Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 (edited) He's got a bad contract and they want him out of there. If we want him we should give up NOTHING of value, especially nothing close to Santiago. Think of trading Alex Rios, except this case is for an arguably worse player with a worse contract. Edited October 19, 2013 by Buehrle>Wood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2nd_city_saint787 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 (edited) QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Oct 19, 2013 -> 10:14 AM) Those talking about Phillips. Olney just retweeted something saying that the Braves want Phillips if the Reds take back Uggla and Braves would add a top prospect or 2. Can't get the tweet because I'm on my iPod. But there ya go. Here are the tweets David O'Brien @ajcbraves 19 Oct Hearing #Braves would have interest in #Reds 2B Phillips if Cincy takes Uggla in deal. ATL probably have to include a top prospect. Buster Olney @Buster_ESPN 19 Oct Like @ajcbraves, heard ATL wants to move Uggla. Uggla-Phillips deal would come down to dealing w/the $: Uggla owed $26m/2, Phillips $50m/4. I wouldn't hate Phillips, I think he could add a spark to the locker room, and I kinda think thats what this team needs. He does also add a "Clutch factor" as he's always been good with RISP. I wouldn't wanna give up one of Q/Santiago/EJ/Bassit/Beck for him though, if they can work out something otherwise I'd be fine with it. Something like for De Aza+ and we also get $$ in return. If it were to happen(which I doubt) I'd like to see Micah Johnson getting some reps at SS/CF in the minors, cause I think we'll be seeing that kid up and starting in 2015. Edited October 19, 2013 by scs787 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 QUOTE (scs787 @ Oct 19, 2013 -> 01:02 PM) Something like for De Aza+ and we also get $$ in return. If He's owed $50 million and we're sending De Aza...the $$ in return better be about $50 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2nd_city_saint787 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 19, 2013 -> 03:35 PM) If He's owed $50 million and we're sending De Aza...the $$ in return better be about $50 million. I'd be fine with them paying half the salary. That's roughly 6M a year for a guy who hit over .330 w/RISP (included an unreal 11-18 with the bases loaded) and is a "Priceless clubhouse presence". I think he's worth about that. Trading them De Aza would also have to come on the coattails of another deal the Sox made to get a new CFer. Reds are asking Uggla and a top prospect, De Aza alone probably doesn't even match that. I'm certainly not gonna be the leader of the trade for Phillips fan club, I'm merely saying I wouldn't hate it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 QUOTE (scs787 @ Oct 19, 2013 -> 05:11 PM) I'd be fine with them paying half the salary. That's roughly 6M a year for a guy who hit over .330 w/RISP (included an unreal 11-18 with the bases loaded) and is a "Priceless clubhouse presence". I think he's worth about that. Trading them De Aza would also have to come on the coattails of another deal the Sox made to get a new CFer. Reds are asking Uggla and a top prospect, De Aza alone probably doesn't even match that. I'm certainly not gonna be the leader of the trade for Phillips fan club, I'm merely saying I wouldn't hate it. Your entire argument for trading for a 32 year old who hit like Gordon Beckham and paying $25 million of his salary over the next 4 years while also giving up a very valuable player is his performance with RISP? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2nd_city_saint787 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 19, 2013 -> 04:15 PM) Your entire argument for trading for a 32 year old who hit like Gordon Beckham and paying $25 million of his salary over the next 4 years while also giving up a very valuable player is his performance with RISP? And his club house presence, which I think this team is missing. Beckham hit .210 w/RISP compared to to .338 for Phillips. Like I said, I'm certainly not calling for it. It was brought up and I said I wouldn't hate it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 People love to call Beckham a bust, but there are only 2 players in the first 46 of the 2008 draft that have a higher career WAR than him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 QUOTE (scs787 @ Oct 19, 2013 -> 06:09 PM) And his club house presence, which I think this team is missing. Beckham hit .210 w/RISP compared to to .338 for Phillips. Like I said, I'm certainly not calling for it. It was brought up and I said I wouldn't hate it. If he had 4/$20 remaining I'd consider claiming him on waivers, but I'm absolutely not giving up anything of value to get him to that point (and De Aza is a very valuable player). If I'm giving up anything of value, he needs to be basically free, or they need to take some bad money back (and somehow I don't think Dunn fits there). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 QUOTE (scs787 @ Oct 19, 2013 -> 12:02 PM) Here are the tweets David O'Brien @ajcbraves 19 Oct Hearing #Braves would have interest in #Reds 2B Phillips if Cincy takes Uggla in deal. ATL probably have to include a top prospect. Buster Olney @Buster_ESPN 19 Oct Like @ajcbraves, heard ATL wants to move Uggla. Uggla-Phillips deal would come down to dealing w/the $: Uggla owed $26m/2, Phillips $50m/4. I wouldn't hate Phillips, I think he could add a spark to the locker room, and I kinda think thats what this team needs. He does also add a "Clutch factor" as he's always been good with RISP. I wouldn't wanna give up one of Q/Santiago/EJ/Bassit/Beck for him though, if they can work out something otherwise I'd be fine with it. Something like for De Aza+ and we also get $$ in return. If it were to happen(which I doubt) I'd like to see Micah Johnson getting some reps at SS/CF in the minors, cause I think we'll be seeing that kid up and starting in 2015. What would the Braves give the Sox to take Uggla? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thad Bosley Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 (edited) QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 19, 2013 -> 05:05 PM) What would the Braves give the Sox to take Uggla? LOL! Just who the White Sox need - DUNN Uggla!! Edited October 19, 2013 by Thad Bosley Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GGajewski18 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 I'm getting a feeling that we are going to see the Gillaspie/Keppinger platoon for at least this year. My feeling is that obviously that we should be getting a catcher through free agency. But, my feeling is that if we do trade pitching, it will be for a CFer or a RFer and move Garcia to center. I just don't know who's available via trade in the OF. Anybody got information on that front? Reddick? Jennings? Markakis? Stanton? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 QUOTE (scs787 @ Oct 19, 2013 -> 05:09 PM) And his club house presence, which I think this team is missing. Beckham hit .210 w/RISP compared to to .338 for Phillips. Like I said, I'm certainly not calling for it. It was brought up and I said I wouldn't hate it. I'll just say this again, maybe it got buried in my last post: performance with RISP has little to no correlation with future performance with RISP Do you know what Brandon Phillips' career average with RISP is? .284 Do you know what Brandon Phillips' career overall average is? .271 Fluctuation are all because of small sample data. Given enough time, guys look the same with RISP as they do all the other times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 I think Kung Fu Panda is a possibility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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