Bruce Levine

[Marty34]

That's a whole lot of hypothetical. Again, Tanaka will potentially require 7 years and $150 million. For a guy who hasn't started more than 23 games in a season and scouts are split on whether he is even a top of the rotation starter....let alone an 'Ace'. He has had declining velocity and doesn't strike out a whole lot of hitters in a far inferior league, and historically pitchers from that league have not stayed healthy or succeeded long term here. But, who cares the White Sox can eat a 7 year contract when according to some, you specifically, have far too many holes to compete right now. Brilliant.

 

And the Sox strength is finding and developing pitchers. Why spend insane money, on a maybe with a huge amount of questions marks, when you can fill multiple holes when it is time to compete?

 

You're argument must be that Tanaka isn't a top-of-the-rotation starter because the idea that the Sox couldn't absorb a 7yr/$150M deal given their their payroll obligations going forward just isn't a good one.

[Balta1701]

You're argument must be that Tanaka isn't a top-of-the-rotation starter because the idea that the Sox couldn't absorb a 7yr/$150M deal given their their payroll obligations going forward just isn't a good one.

How about "There's a risk that Tanaka isn't a top-of-the-rotation starter and if that were the case then a 7/$150 deal would be an enormously bad, franchise-crippling deal for the White Sox. Thus, you must be 100% absolutely certain that he's an ace right out of the gate because the downside risk is enormous".

 

It's like putting all your retirement money on red. It might work...but you better darn well know it's going to come up red.

[Kyyle23]

You're argument must be that Tanaka isn't a top-of-the-rotation starter because the idea that the Sox couldn't absorb a 7yr/$150M deal given their their payroll obligations going forward just isn't a good one.

 

That wasnt his argument at all

[Marty34]

And the Sox strength is finding and developing pitchers. Why spend insane money, on a maybe with a huge amount of questions marks, when you can fill multiple holes when it is time to compete?

 

Spend money because a player is available who could set you up for contention for years to come. Have you seen the Sox payroll obligations for the next 6 years, Tanaka wouldn't prevent them from competing even if he turned out to be awful.

 

[Marty34]

That wasnt his argument at all

 

What was it?

[Balta1701]

Spend money because a player is available who could set you up for contention for years to come. Have you seen the Sox payroll obligations for the next 6 years, Tanaka wouldn't prevent them from competing even if he turned out to be awful.

Prevent? No. "Make it so that they had zero margin for error and every single decision they made had to turn out right, which is typically very unlikely in baseball"? Yeah, it would do that.

[Marty34]

How about "There's a risk that Tanaka isn't a top-of-the-rotation starter and if that were the case then a 7/$150 deal would be an enormously bad, franchise-crippling deal for the White Sox. Thus, you must be 100% absolutely certain that he's an ace right out of the gate because the downside risk is enormous".

 

It's like putting all your retirement money on red. It might work...but you better darn well know it's going to come up red.

 

Have you seen the Sox future payroll obligations?

[Balta1701]

Have you seen the Sox future payroll obligations?

Yes.

 

Are we going to let everyone who is arbitration-eligible walk?

[Marty34]

Prevent? No. "Make it so that they had zero margin for error and every single decision they made had to turn out right, which is typically very unlikely in baseball"? Yeah, it would do that.

 

You must not have seen their future payroll obligations.

[Marty34]

Yes.

 

Are we going to let everyone who is arbitration-eligible walk?

 

Are they going to have a $60M payroll in 2017?

[Kyyle23]

What was it?

 

well, it had to do with declining velocity, strikeouts and league strength, as well as scouts perceptions

 

but why bother explaining, you wont read it anyways

[Marty34]

well, it had to do with declining velocity, strikeouts and league strength, as well as scouts perceptions

 

but why bother explaining, you wont read it anyways

 

in other words he doesn't think Tanaka will be a frontline starter.

[Eminor3rd]

It's difficult to argue that the Sox shouldn't be heavily involved in due diligence for Tanaka. He should be considered an option.

 

Whether or not they choose to enter the bidding depends ENTIRELY on their internal assessment of his abilities and upside -- an assessment to which we have no insight and which may or may not be completely different from public or even internal club consensus.

 

If they don't get him, it won't necessarily be because they didn't think they had the payroll space.

[Balta1701]

Are they going to have a $60M payroll in 2017?

Are they going to develop 0 starting pitchers before 2017?

[Marty34]

It's difficult to argue that the Sox shouldn't be heavily involved in due diligence for Tanaka. He should be considered an option.

 

Whether or not they choose to enter the bidding depends ENTIRELY on their internal assessment of his abilities and upside -- an assessment to which we have no insight and which may or may not be completely different from public or even internal club consensus.

 

If they don't get him, it won't necessarily be because they didn't think they had the payroll space.

 

And that's fair enough. The idea that it's beyond the level of acceptable risk for the Sox because it's likely to be in the $150M range just isn't correct though.

[Marty34]

Are they going to develop 0 starting pitchers before 2017?

 

What is it that you're saying?

[Chicago White Sox]

Are they going to develop 0 starting pitchers before 2017?

Come on Balta, if the Sox were willing to pony up $100M+ for Tanaka, it's because they think he's a legitimate ace. Let's not pretend we've been able to develop aces on a regular basis or that an ace would not provide significant value (especially in the post-season) over the mid rotation starters we are able to develop.

 

Marty's point makes perfect sense, I'm just not sure Tanaka is the right guy to roll the dice on. Quite frankly, we might be best off taking Hoffman in the draft and hope he can be an elite #2 starter alongside Sale. I'd rather spend my money on free agent bats than pitchers all else being equal.

[shakes]

What was it?

 

 

That's on you for not reading my posts. My arguments are clearly laid out as others seemed to grasp them, or it's just your normal MO of ignoring what people write if you don't have any intelligent rebuttal.

 

Actually, it's on me for responding to you in the first place. My bad.

[Quin]

Zito didn't prevent the Giants from winning two World Series. I doubt Tanaka would if he became a worst case scenario.

[shakes]

It's difficult to argue that the Sox shouldn't be heavily involved in due diligence for Tanaka. He should be considered an option.

 

Whether or not they choose to enter the bidding depends ENTIRELY on their internal assessment of his abilities and upside -- an assessment to which we have no insight and which may or may not be completely different from public or even internal club consensus.

 

If they don't get him, it won't necessarily be because they didn't think they had the payroll space.

 

Absolutely. They should be doing their due diligence. If they feel he is a can't miss ace. Get in the mix.The Sox history says they are very wary of long term pitching contracts and this Tanaka situation comes with a lot of red flags. I would be very surprised if they are serious contenders on him. Just feel like this is a trial year and the money moving forward would be better spent being spread around.

 

[Kyyle23]

in other words he doesn't think Tanaka will be a frontline starter.

 

That is his argument, sure. That's not the words you put in his mouth

[ILMOU]

If we're going to spend $150M, I'd rather get Choo for 7 years. This would have the added effect (benefit?) of nearly forcing a dumping of Tank, which would make some here happy.

 

Not advocating this, BTW.

 

[Marty34]

That is his argument, sure. That's not the words you put in his mouth

 

Oh I get it, he is advocated the money "be spread around." I forgot that because when I asked on who there was no response. "My bad" as the kids say.

[Marty34]

If we're going to spend $150M, I'd rather get Choo for 7 years. This would have the added effect (benefit?) of nearly forcing a dumping of Tank, which would make some here happy.

 

Not advocating this, BTW.

 

The Sox need to leverage the Sale contract to find the biggest competitive advantage possible. In my view that is taking a chance on another frontline starter via free agency and drafting a potential one with the third pick. In 3-4 years, if it turns out they have the best top 3 starters in MLB I'll take my chances filling in whatever positional holes there are.

Edited December 19, 2013 by Marty34

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

It's difficult to argue that the Sox shouldn't be heavily involved in due diligence for Tanaka. He should be considered an option.

 

Whether or not they choose to enter the bidding depends ENTIRELY on their internal assessment of his abilities and upside -- an assessment to which we have no insight and which may or may not be completely different from public or even internal club consensus.

 

If they don't get him, it won't necessarily be because they didn't think they had the payroll space.

I agree. The Sox already took their big gamble on Abreu. To take another now for an even bigger gamble financially plus spending $20M for nothing but the right to sign him is a huge gamble regardless of how they "think " he will project. Tanaka wasn't anything special in the WBC. Also in 2011 when Tanaka really took off as a pitcher the Japanese league changed baseballs and offenses suffered. Not sure if they ever changed back. http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Masahiro_Tanaka

Edited December 19, 2013 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside