http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/i...s-30-through-25

 

How they can get to 90 wins: Score 169 more runs, allow 44 fewer. I put more emphasis on scoring runs because the White Sox's pitching wasn't that bad -- they allowed 21 more runs than average, but factoring in U.S. Cellular Field, that's a pretty good performance. They need to find runs and lots of them.

 

Much more at link

Fair prediction.

But I still see a lineup with big OBP issues: Alex Rios led the team with a .328 OBP in 2013 and he's now on the Rangers.

 

Jesus Christ that's awful.

Also MLB.com released their fantasy rankings: Sale was 34, Abreu 131, Jones 184, Ramirez 191, Quintana 200, Eaton 213.

That sounds about right - I'd say no more than 75 or 76 if things go right. This offense is full of outs and young talent. There is upside for improvement, but these young guys will have growing pains and a lineup of Viceido, Beckham, Abreau Flowers, Dunn, Keppinger (or Davidson) screams of nights with 4 or fewer runs.

I would say that's a surprisingly fair read on the Sox. I also agree with him that there is potential for a slightly better season than his final prediction, but wouldn't at all count on it.

Yeah this is fair, and kind of a gut punch at how hard it is to stand back up in the MLB.

Sounds about right...but where is he getting these predictions from exactly...?

 

How the hell do you just come up with a run figure off the top of your head?

Sounds about right...but where is he getting these predictions from exactly...?

 

How the hell do you just come up with a run figure off the top of your head?

Pythagorean win expectancy. If you plug his numbers into this calculator you get 90 wins.

Pythagorean win expectancy. If you plug his numbers into this calculator you get 90 wins.

 

I know that, but where is he getting the initial numbers to get to 71-91 from?

I think they will do better than that. They were basically the same team (minus AJ's career year) that won 85 the year before. Everyone playing badly, injuries, bad luck all conspired at the same time. That was a once-in-decades crap pile, but that not-great team was not a 63 win talent team.

 

Here's the OPS number we got from each position last year. I think every one will be better this year (some by a lot) aside from RF and maybe SS

C .564

1B .751

2B .658

SS .692

3B .635

LF .732

CF .674

RF .762

DH .674

 

Even if it's Phegley/Flowers again, I think they'd put up at least a .600 OPS by accident.

 

Also, for the first season I can remember, I don't really care what the win total is. I'm just hoping for success from some/most of our young players, and strong play from the guys we'll be looking to trade (Dunn, Keppinger, maybe De Aza).

I think they will do better than that. They were basically the same team (minus AJ's career year) that won 85 the year before. Everyone playing badly, injuries, bad luck all conspired at the same time. That was a once-in-decades crap pile, but that not-great team was not a 63 win talent team.

 

Here's the OPS number we got from each position last year. I think every one will be better this year (some by a lot) aside from RF and maybe SS

C .564

1B .751

2B .658

SS .692

3B .635

LF .732

CF .674

RF .762

DH .674

 

Even if it's Phegley/Flowers again, I think they'd put up at least a .600 OPS by accident.

 

Also, for the first season I can remember, I don't really care what the win total is. I'm just hoping for success from some/most of our young players, and strong play from the guys we'll be looking to trade (Dunn, Keppinger, maybe De Aza).

 

Wow. Does anybody know the league average OPS for regulars- wouldn't want all the cups of coffee n bench players making our guys look better than they were Or OPS per position?

 

We would have won like 7 games without our staff.

The author said our farm system made no progress. That's a good display of ignorance.

The author said our farm system made no progress. That's a good display of ignorance.

That's not true:

 

The farm system, for years one of the weakest in the majors, is showing a few signs of life, with Erik Johnson expected to join the rotation.

I'm going with 80 wins. Yes that is incredibly optimistic. I am loving this team though.

My initial gut feeling says 75-76 wins, which would be awful for the rebuilding process.

Edited February 4, 201412 yr by Chilihead90

Wow. Does anybody know the league average OPS for regulars- wouldn't want all the cups of coffee n bench players making our guys look better than they were Or OPS per position?

 

We would have won like 7 games without our staff.

 

Would love to see wRC+ for each position. That would have context baked in.

My initial gut feeling says 75-76 wins, which would be awful for the rebuilding process.

How so? Are you thinking it would cause Hahn to jump the gun? I think the threshold to trigger Buy Mode is a little higher than that, personally.

My initial gut feeling says 75-76 wins, which would be awful for the rebuilding process.

 

 

As opposed to 80-82 wins?

 

In that case, the attendance is still going to be BLAH and they're going to be picking in the middle of the 2015 draft instead of the Top 10 (probably #4-8).

 

 

And the White Sox better hope that Abreu, A. Garcia and Viciedo do better than some of these preseason predictions.

Edited February 4, 201412 yr by caulfield12

How so? Are you thinking it would cause Hahn to jump the gun? I think the threshold to trigger Buy Mode is a little higher than that, personally.

 

Anything other than a high draft pick or a playoff contender is a bad result for a season. Mediocrity is a franchise killer.

As opposed to 80-82 wins?

 

In that case, the attendance is still going to be BLAH and they're going to be picking in the middle of the 2015 draft instead of the Top 10 (probably #4-8).

 

 

And the White Sox better hope that Abreu, A. Garcia and Viciedo do better than some of these preseason predictions.

 

As opposed to 65 or less, or 85 or more. The middle 20-game stretch is rarely something you want to finish with.

Anything other than a high draft pick or a playoff contender is a bad result for a season. Mediocrity is a franchise killer.

No offense, but this is completely ridiculous. Teams rarely jump from bottom 3 to playoff contender in one season, as success is usually built over multiple seasons, especially for a team with a young core.

 

Also, if we were to get another high draft pick next year, that likely means a lot of our young players failed to make progress in 2014. Not sure how that would ever be a "good" result.

I'd say most everyone would be pretty satisfied with 74-76...tops, maybe 78 wins.

 

Those are pretty realistic expectations.

 

To be down in the 60's again would be quite a setback for the franchise, in the sense that it would have to mean there are either major injuries or under-performance again. It would be more like the Cubs' tailspin, minus Baez/Bryant/Soler/Almora/Olt/Alcantara/Vogelbach/Villanueva, etc.

 

Now, of course, there's that group that wants us to make every effort to compete already in 2014, but it's a relative minority....

Edited February 4, 201412 yr by caulfield12

Honestly, unless there is some miracle that puts this team in contention, win total really isn't even that important.

 

I'd take 63 wins if it comes with decent development by young players, a marked improvement by some out of Ramirez/Beckham/DeAza/Viciedo, and a decent return on a Dunn deadline trade, as opposed to 75 wins but none or very few of the other things.

Honestly, unless there is some miracle that puts this team in contention, win total really isn't even that important.

 

I'd take 63 wins if it comes with decent development by young players, a marked improvement by some out of Ramirez/Beckham/DeAza/Viciedo, and a decent return on a Dunn deadline trade, as opposed to 75 wins but none or very few of the other things.

The only way those things happen and the White Sox wind up with 63 wins is if Sale and perhaps other starters get hurt.