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The Kansas City Model


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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 11:01 AM)
But that was when it included Soria and when Tim Collins was a monster. Hawk didn't see Wade Davis coming.

 

To be fair, Davis was pretty effective as a relief pitcher with the Rays 2 years ago.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 09:42 AM)
Yes he was, and I wish he'd (or they, rather) would go back to that. You can teach guys to throw curveballs and sliders and changeups but you can't teach guys to throw 100 MPH.

 

I think they have stuck to that model, they picked up quite a few guys this season that fit that mold. Acquisitions Sanburn, Cleto, Angel Sanchez, Henry Rodriguez, and Raul Fernandez all light up the radar gun. It was only last year that they brought in Montas as a throw in on the Peavy deal, so I don't think they have abandoned that approach at all, just have not been all that lucky in getting one to click this year though I think that Fernandez and Sanburn show promise to be pieces of the bullpen in the not too distant future.

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QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 10:34 AM)
I think they have stuck to that model, they picked up quite a few guys this season that fit that mold. Acquisitions Sanburn, Cleto, Angel Sanchez, Henry Rodriguez, and Raul Fernandez all light up the radar gun. It was only last year that they brought in Montas as a throw in on the Peavy deal, so I don't think they have abandoned that approach at all, just have not been all that lucky in getting one to click this year though I think that Fernandez and Sanburn show promise to be pieces of the bullpen in the not too distant future.

 

 

Webb was supposedly throwing 97-99 in 2013 in the minors as well...

 

We just didn't often see that version at the major league level, though.

Edited by caulfield12
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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 09:41 AM)
They spent nothing on that pen. They are all failed starters they collected and move into the pen.

 

And Kenny Williams was doing the collect guys who throw 98 thing long before KC was.

that was a pen to behold in '07

 

Masset .1WAR

Thornton .9WAR

Aardsma .3WAR

Jenks 2.2WAR

Logan .1WAR

Day -.1WAR

Sisco -.1WAR

MacDougal .2WAR

 

 

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The Royals model is flawed. We aren't talking about a great team here. Great story yes and they could retain as they have young players, etc. However, one of the key pieces of what makes them so good is their defense and defense tends to be more consistent. Relievers are less consistent, although if you are talking about a plus reliever, the bulk of them tend to have some staying power, but that comes into more focus on the scouting, etc. and their stuff. Plus relievers with smaller sample sizes can have more variability in general driven by luck.

 

Sox defense sucks and we need to fix it more then anything.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 11:00 AM)
Well, Hawk the idiot, who the game has passed by, said KC had the best bullpen in the league in March. They have had a great bullpen for a few years now.

 

How many other bullpens did he call the "best"? He uses that word more than he breathes.

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 12:20 PM)
How many other bullpens did he call the "best"? He uses that word more than he breathes.

None.

 

But.....KC has had a good bullpen for several years, and it didn't get them anywhere. It worked this year, and the last couple of games of the ALCS.

 

As was mentioned, they barely made the playoffs, and really should have lost the wild card game. But if you get on a roll at the right time, you might win a trophy.

Edited by Dick Allen
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 12:23 PM)
As was mentioned, they barely made the playoffs, and really should have lost the wild card game. But if you get on a roll at the right time, you might win a trophy.

Correct. I think that's exactly why it's silly to go prescribing that we follow some team's "model" as a path to winning. Just try to do everything well. If the Royal Model is the way to go, then let's just emulate any team that ever had a 9-game winning streak.

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QUOTE (shysocks @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 10:28 AM)
Correct. I think that's exactly why it's silly to go prescribing that we follow some team's "model" as a path to winning. Just try to do everything well. If the Royal Model is the way to go, then let's just emulate any team that ever had a 9-game winning streak.

The key to winning a world series starts with making the playoffs and ideally the more you make the playoffs, the better your odds to advance further and be hot at the right time. In baseball, more then any sport, the best team doesn't necessarily win the series. It is almost the complete opposite of basketball.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 03:56 PM)
KC also BARELY made the postseason.

 

I think any time you come to a conclusion where you say any of pitching/hitting/defense/baserunning is any more important than the rest, you're overthinking it and you're not making a useful conclusion. A good team needs to be able to do all of those things, and if they don't they're going to struggle to overcome it.

 

KC's weakness is offense, and because of that they snuck in with the wild card. Now, during the postseason, they have more homeruns than EVERY other team. The pitching in defense isn't trumping offense in the postseason -- it's being tacked onto a monster offense that didn't exist before.

 

KC is a solid team that is playing hot at the right time.

KC also has owned the White Sox in recent years. The Sox don't match up well with KC cause KC can hit homers in the Cell and have owned the Sox in the Cell.

 

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 04:59 PM)
The Royals model is flawed. We aren't talking about a great team here. Great story yes and they could retain as they have young players, etc. However, one of the key pieces of what makes them so good is their defense and defense tends to be more consistent. Relievers are less consistent, although if you are talking about a plus reliever, the bulk of them tend to have some staying power, but that comes into more focus on the scouting, etc. and their stuff. Plus relievers with smaller sample sizes can have more variability in general driven by luck.

 

Sox defense sucks and we need to fix it more then anything.

Your last line is the post of the season. Fix it soon.

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 11:59 AM)
The Royals model is flawed. We aren't talking about a great team here. Great story yes and they could retain as they have young players, etc. However, one of the key pieces of what makes them so good is their defense and defense tends to be more consistent. Relievers are less consistent, although if you are talking about a plus reliever, the bulk of them tend to have some staying power, but that comes into more focus on the scouting, etc. and their stuff. Plus relievers with smaller sample sizes can have more variability in general driven by luck.

 

Sox defense sucks and we need to fix it more then anything.

 

Our fielding percentage and the Royals was almost identical. We scored more runs than they did, hit many more homers; they hit for a higher average and stole many more bases. On the surface the difference was indeed pitching - their team ERA was 3.69. ours was 4.09. That is over half a run a game difference. So, one way to look at getting better is to indeed fix the pitching staff, especially the bullpen. No secret, huh!?

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QUOTE (bear_brian @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 07:12 PM)
Our fielding percentage and the Royals was almost identical.?

 

This tells me official scorers are indeed awful. The eye test will tell you Sox defense is blah; Royals defense is excellent.

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QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 01:50 PM)
KC also has owned the White Sox in recent years. The Sox don't match up well with KC cause KC can hit homers in the Cell and have owned the Sox in the Cell.

 

really, what does this have to do with what we are seeing now? They didnt have to play the Sox in the playoffs. They beat up on a bad team all season,That was what they were supposed to do. I dont even know if they hit more homers in the cell than any other team, i cant remember them doing anything but pitching very well and playing good defense, which is already known

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QUOTE (bear_brian @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 12:12 PM)
Our fielding percentage and the Royals was almost identical. We scored more runs than they did, hit many more homers; they hit for a higher average and stole many more bases. On the surface the difference was indeed pitching - their team ERA was 3.69. ours was 4.09. That is over half a run a game difference. So, one way to look at getting better is to indeed fix the pitching staff, especially the bullpen. No secret, huh!?

Fielding percentage is a horrendous metric to evaluate defense. Using advanced defensive metrics, the Sox this past year, ranked 28th in team defense (Astros / Indians were worse) with our defense costing us 48 runs. The Royals defense ranked 1st and saved 74.8 runs.

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 02:17 PM)
Fielding percentage is a horrendous metric to evaluate defense. Using advanced defensive metrics, the Sox this past year, ranked 28th in team defense (Astros / Indians were worse) with our defense costing us 48 runs. The Royals defense ranked 1st and saved 74.8 runs.

 

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QUOTE (bear_brian @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 02:12 PM)
Our fielding percentage and the Royals was almost identical. We scored more runs than they did, hit many more homers; they hit for a higher average and stole many more bases. On the surface the difference was indeed pitching - their team ERA was 3.69. ours was 4.09. That is over half a run a game difference. So, one way to look at getting better is to indeed fix the pitching staff, especially the bullpen. No secret, huh!?

 

 

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 02:16 PM)
This tells me official scorers are indeed awful. The eye test will tell you Sox defense is blah; Royals defense is excellent.

 

Fielding percentage means nothing and people should stop using that as a judgment of defense. It has value in that it can tell you a guy is [probably] making too many errors, but a fielding percentage of 1.000 tells you nothing other than that a guy is not making errors on the balls he gets to. For instance, if you have a blob play SS who can only get to balls hit right at him, but he fields everything hit to him, he's going to have a fielding percentage of 1.000. Is a guy who has absolutely no range to his front, back, left, or right actually a good defender?

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QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 02:17 PM)
really, what does this have to do with what we are seeing now? They didnt have to play the Sox in the playoffs. They beat up on a bad team all season,That was what they were supposed to do. I dont even know if they hit more homers in the cell than any other team, i cant remember them doing anything but pitching very well and playing good defense, which is already known

In 10 games at the Cell the Royals hit 8 homers, .8 a game (derp). Compare that to their .57 per game in all other parks. A little higher than their norm but given it's only a 10 game sample and that they're facing a generally weaker pitching staff in the Sox, doesn't seem like a big deal.

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 02:17 PM)
Fielding percentage is a horrendous metric to evaluate defense. Using advanced defensive metrics, the Sox this past year, ranked 28th in team defense (Astros / Indians were worse) with our defense costing us 48 runs. The Royals defense ranked 1st and saved 74.8 runs.

 

This is the most jaw dropping post I have ever seen under this username and I absolutely love it because it's 100% correct.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 12:36 PM)
This is the most jaw dropping post I have ever seen under this username and I absolutely love it because it's 100% correct.

Jerk ;)

 

I don't dislike metrics I just a lot more has to be thought of then just spitting out the metric. I also still think defensive metrics have their flaws, but they have been improving significantly and the value of defense is at an all time high over the past 20 years given the fact that we appear to be in a low scoring era. I also think a lot of the general saber themes have to be revisited (e.g., playing for the long ball, etc) as a lot of those decision points likely change given that in general, the value of a run is more important now than it was 5 years ago.

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