Sox sign Geo Soto

[LDF]

Anyone else think we may carry Geo Soto as our 3rd C/DH vs LHP? Maybe even some 1B letting Abreu DH vs LHP?

 

on the cheap..... yeah and hope he can produce.

[LDF]

Hahn said he was looking for an acquisition and also said Saladino would be a top internal candidate. It seems the Sox have really soured on Davidson. Even Buddy Bell's effort to spin him up was half hearted and he mentioned how hard it is to hit, and failure rate.

 

The minor league guys did seem a little more hopeful with Johnson. They think he tweaked his mechanics a bit just trying to succeed. They still think he can get back to where he was.

 

i just don't know. if i am reading this, and i am looking between the lines, it appears as just maybe, they are trying not to let the hype get out of hand.

[Feeky Magee]

No you are not. You are also ignoring the count. Soto in his career has a .497 OBP with a full count. Again the only plays that hurt are infield liners and strikeouts. Anything else either doesn't matter or it helps he was running.A fly out, Avi gets back to first, a pop out, same thing. It is worth the gamble, now be like you want Hawk and Stome to be and just admit you are wrong.

I'll reply here since the thread you made the comment in is closed. I am not wrong. He may have a .497 OBP, but that's mostly down to walks. In a 3-2 count, he gets hits 14% of the time. He puts the ball in play for outs a further 24% of the time. Of this, let's presume he hits his career average 40% grounders. That means he hits 10% grounders. He strikes out 27% of the time. So that's 24% chance of a ground ball or hit, where running is advantageous, 27% chance of a strikeout, where it's disadvantageous, with the rest being walks or fly outs (neutral) or infield liners (disadvantageous). I'm right, you're wrong.

 

And that's purely assuming an average runner, whereas this whole thing started because I stated that Avi was below average.

[Dick Allen]

I'll reply here since the thread you made the comment in is closed. I am not wrong. He may have a .497 OBP, but that's mostly down to walks. In a 3-2 count, he gets hits 14% of the time. He puts the ball in play for outs a further 24% of the time. Of this, let's presume he hits his career average 40% grounders. That means he hits 10% grounders. He strikes out 27% of the time. So that's 24% chance of a ground ball or hit, where running is advantageous, 27% chance of a strikeout, where it's disadvantageous, with the rest being walks or fly outs (neutral) or infield liners (disadvantageous). I'm right, you're wrong.

 

And that's purely assuming an average runner, whereas this whole thing started because I stated that Avi was below average.

There is a far greater chance of a positive or neutral result than negative.

[Feeky Magee]

There is a far greater chance of a positive or neutral result than negative.

Are you for real? It's 24% chance of a positive, 27% chance of a negative and 49% chance of a neutral. And that's without considering infield liners, which extends the gap even further. It's net negative.

[Dick Allen]

Are you for real? It's 24% chance of a positive, 27% chance of a negative and 49% chance of a neutral. And that's without considering infield liners, which extends the gap even further. It's net negative.

And even with your numbers, 73 is much higher than 27 and Avi is still 50/50 into second. The way this team has been bouncing into DPs, they are trying to do something about it. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. With a runner on 1st and less than 2 out in his career, Soto has 540 plate appearances and has grounded into a DP 69 times. And even on a strikeout Avi is 50/50 into second.

Edited June 11, 2015 by Dick Allen

[Feeky Magee]

And even with your numbers, 73 is much higher than 27 and Avi is still 50/50 into second. The way this team has been bouncing into DPs, they are trying to do something about it. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. With a runner on 1st and less than 2 out in his career, Soto has 540 plate appearances and has grounded into a DP 69 times. And even on a strikeout Avi is 50/50 into second.

Now you're going back from a 3-2 count to a general plate appearance. This is pointless. Either way, my original point in the thread was that we should generally stop running with Avi. It's way less stupid to do it in that situation than it was to do it in the 3-1 count his prior caught stealing, granted.

[Dick Allen]

Now you're going back from a 3-2 count to a general plate appearance. This is pointless. Either way, my original point in the thread was that we should generally stop running with Avi. It's way less stupid to do it in that situation than it was to do it in the 3-1 count his prior caught stealing, granted.

The first time he ran, it was 2-1 when he ran. The pitch he ran on was a ball to make it 3-1.

[Feeky Magee]

The first time he ran, it was 2-1 when he ran. The pitch he ran on was a ball to make it 3-1.

Ok. But if I recall correctly, the guy couldn't throw strikes at the time, and when you're a 50% career base stealer it's never really a good time to run, unless you're picking up some guy's motion really well.

[chitownsportsfan]

Who cares about the stolen base or lack of last night. Geo needs to be starting 3-5 times a week. If Flowers continues to get 80% of the time at catcher I"m going to be pretty pissed. Geo is young enough yet where he might have a couple good years left. Don't trot him out there 6 days out of 7 as he is injury prone, but 4-5 days a week would be ideal.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

Who cares about the stolen base or lack of last night. Geo needs to be starting 3-5 times a week. If Flowers continues to get 80% of the time at catcher I"m going to be pretty pissed. Geo is young enough yet where he might have a couple good years left. Don't trot him out there 6 days out of 7 as he is injury prone, but 4-5 days a week would be ideal.

100% agree. He gives the Sox a better chance to win when he's out there, and therefore, should be playing more than Flowers.

[ptatc]

100% agree. He gives the Sox a better chance to win when he's out there, and therefore, should be playing more than Flowers.

You need to take the pitcher's performance into consideration. Do the pitcher's pitch better with flowers? I don't know the answer but you seem to only look at the offensive production of each.

[harkness99]

Soto is obviously a more competent bat yes... however how does he control the pitchers?

 

That is the thing I really don't know.

 

Watching Flowers bat is pretty painful.

[southsider2k5]

You need to take the pitcher's performance into consideration. Do the pitcher's pitch better with flowers? I don't know the answer but you seem to only look at the offensive production of each.

Catcher ERA for Flowers is 4.05 with a DWAR of -0.1, Soto is 4.43 with DWAR of 0.2. Flowers is pretty highly rated in Pitch Framing too, though Soto isn't bad.

 

http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

[BigHurt3515]

Sale's comments on Flowers a few days ago will cause Flowers to be here forever

[Balta1701]

Catcher ERA for Flowers is 4.05 with a DWAR of -0.1, Soto is 4.43 with DWAR of 0.2. Flowers is pretty highly rated in Pitch Framing too, though Soto isn't bad.

 

http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

Part of that of course is Soto catching Samardzija a lot and Samardzija being an overpaid overpriced Valpo bum.

[southsider2k5]

Part of that of course is Soto catching Samardzija a lot and Samardzija being an overpaid overpriced Valpo bum.

 

Could always take a guy like Danks starts and compare the results. Danks doesn't seem to have "a guy" as his catcher. The starts are evenly spread.

 

Flowers has caught him 6 times, with results of 0, 5, 2, 1, and 3 ER. A total of 34.1 IP and an era of 3.93

 

Soto 5 times for 5, 3, 3, 4, and 4 ER. A total of 27 IP and an era of 6.33.