March 6, 201511 yr I'm actually kind of surprised by this after the projections for the central were so weak.
March 6, 201511 yr Author QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Mar 6, 2015 -> 01:24 PM) So the AL is much harder then, as we would all have assumed. Yep, though I think the article states that the gap has been shrinking as of late.
March 6, 201511 yr Division 44-32 League 36-30 Interleague 12-8 92-70, Win division But seriously, 88 wins may win a tough division, while in 2008 it won a weak division. (Plus game 163.) Edited March 6, 201511 yr by flavum
March 6, 201511 yr Reflects the quality in the AL central this year. Many projections have the Indians as a top 5 team.
March 6, 201511 yr QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Mar 6, 2015 -> 02:23 PM) Reflects the quality in the AL central this year. Many projections have the Indians as a top 5 team. Definitely top 5 in the division.
March 6, 201511 yr QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Mar 6, 2015 -> 02:31 PM) Definitely top 5 in the division. Bold call.
March 7, 201511 yr There is some skewing bias for exaggerated effect, as the y-scale only shows 28-37, thus implying a drastic difference of a projected WAR of 36 for the O's and Rays between a 30.5 WAR difference the Nats, when really we know that the expected error of the projection process itself is 7 WAR. It doesn't mean NOTHING, but it goes to show the MLB is playing enough games that the strength of schedules don't matter a whole ton. Beyond that, strength of schedule is so silly because injuries occur and breakouts happen and we have no way of projecting those ever and that's why baseball (and all sports) are so awesome, so it establishes false beliefs - "we had a tough schedule" "the teams on our schedule played better than they should have" "we were never expected to win" "of course they should have won, look at how weak their schedule was." Push come to shove, win the games. The Sox sucked in high leverage spots last year. They can't do that again and expect to compete. I'm drunk, so while I love Sullivan, his article was TL;DR to me at this moment, but I havent posted anything on here in days and god that felt so good.
March 7, 201511 yr The Padres' announcer implied there was no correlation between stolen bases and having an effective offense. I guess he didn't watch the Royals from July on...
March 7, 201511 yr QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Mar 7, 2015 -> 01:54 AM) The Padres' announcer implied there was no correlation between stolen bases and having an effective offense. I guess he didn't watch the Royals from July on... With their lack of speed and attempt to put together a softball team this year, they'll change their minds by September.
March 7, 201511 yr Does this mean they can lose a few more games and still get a bid? Everone in the division basically plays the same opponents. Tell me about strength of schedule after the season, not by projected WAR. At the end of the season, the standings aren't even in line with actual WAR.
March 7, 201511 yr QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Mar 6, 2015 -> 03:23 PM) Reflects the quality in the AL central this year. Many projections have the Indians as a top 5 team. I wonder what factor travel has on the toughness of a schedule. Certainly the AL Central has by far the easiest travel compared to the other 2 divisions both within the division and travelling to the other divisions. But western division teams like San Fran and LA have been very successful despite getting the short end of travelling.
March 9, 201511 yr QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Mar 7, 2015 -> 02:54 AM) The Padres' announcer implied there was no correlation between stolen bases and having an effective offense. I guess he didn't watch the Royals from July on... I guess you didn't either? In 2014's second half, the Royals scored the 11th most runs despite stealing 40% more bases than anybody else. And the actual correlation between runs scored and stolen bases last season was -.017, which is a meaningless result. The announcer was absolutely correct.
March 9, 201511 yr QUOTE (shysocks @ Mar 9, 2015 -> 10:15 AM) I guess you didn't either? In 2014's second half, the Royals scored the 11th most runs despite stealing 40% more bases than anybody else. And the actual correlation between runs scored and stolen bases last season was -.017, which is a meaningless result. The announcer was absolutely correct. has there been any affect in XBT % going up and offense?
March 9, 201511 yr QUOTE (bmags @ Mar 9, 2015 -> 10:43 AM) has there been any affect in XBT % going up and offense? Correlation between XBT% and runs last year was 17%, so not meaningless, but obviously less important compared to the big boys such as OBP (80%) and homers (58%). Fun fact: the correlation of runs and sac bunts was -41%. Almost makes me wanna bring back the STOP BUNTING banner for my sig.
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.