southsider2k5 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Taking the team we have today in isolation. What would be the season long win difference between having a year of Cespedes on this team, and a year of what we have now in the OF? Is the difference between Cespedes and the current roster the difference between competing and the playoffs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baron Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 (edited) Cespedes saved 14 runs in LF last season. Our outfield as a whole gave up about around 30. Adam Eaton and obviously Garcia were the main contributors to that. Say by adding him in LF and switching around the OF you get close to breaking even. I dont think Eaton is going to have a repeat of 2015 defensively. What do you value 30 runs at? Edited January 22, 2016 by Baron Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB2.0 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 (edited) I think OP is asking about a difference in WINS though, not defensive runs. Tough question to answer because you have to not only have faith in WAR stats, but predictive WAR stats too. Anyway, the difference with just replacing Thomson with Cespedes is +2.7 (per Steamer) if you do. Here's the math: 2015 OF fWAR Eaton - 3.6 Thomson - 1.5 L. Garcia - (0.2) Schuck - (0.3) Cabrera - (0.3) A. Garcia - (1.1) Total: 3.2 2016 Steamer fWAR Eaton - 2.1 Cespedes - 2.9 L. Garcia - (0.1) Schuck - (0.2) Cabrera - 1.0 A. Garcia - 0.2 Total: 5.9 Delta: + 2.7 If these are to believed, the answer to the question: OP asked: Is the difference between Cespedes and the current roster the difference between competing and the playoffs? ..is obviously no but it's moving in the right direction. This also obviously says nothing about gains at 2B, 3B, and C or what gains might also be realized at DH as a result of the change in roster as well. Edited January 22, 2016 by CB2.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QuickJones81 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 03:59 PM) I think OP is asking about a difference in WINS though, not defensive runs. Tough question to answer because you have to not only have faith in WAR stats, but predictive WAR stats too. Anyway, the difference with just replacing Thomson with Cespedes is +2.7 (per Steamer) if you do. Here's the math: 2015 OF fWAR Eaton - 3.6 Thomson - 1.5 L. Garcia - (0.2) Schuck - (0.3) Cabrera - (0.3) A. Garcia - (1.1) Total: 3.2 2016 Steamer fWAR Eaton - 2.1 Cespedes - 2.9 L. Garcia - (0.1) Schuck - (0.2) Cabrera - 1.0 A. Garcia - 0.2 Total: 5.9 Delta: + 2.7 If these are to believed, the answer to the question: ..is obviously no but it's moving in the right direction. This also obviously says nothing about gains at 2B, 3B, and C or what gains might also be realized at DH as a result of the change in roster as well. Another way to look at it is Cespedes gains us 2 wins over signing Austin Jackson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaconOnAStick Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well since we traded Trayce Thompson getting Cespedes is kind of a big deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baron Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That's why I asked him how does he value 30 runs. In other words...how many games do you think 30 runs sacrificed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You have to assume Cespedes will be at 3.5 war as opposed to 6. That would still be 84-85 wins and within shouting distance of the two wild cards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpd9189 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think the benefit of getting Cespedes would be he'd have been the 3rd power bat in the lineup and would've made the Sox lineup tougher to pitch against. Right now they have 2 bats that other teams really have to worry about. However aside from Abreu and Frazier, no one in this lineup is giving opposing pitchers nightmares. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve9347 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 03:37 PM) Cespedes saved 14 runs in LF last season. Our outfield as a whole gave up about around 30. Adam Eaton and obviously Garcia were the main contributors to that. Say by adding him in LF and switching around the OF you get close to breaking even. I dont think Eaton is going to have a repeat of 2015 defensively. What do you value 30 runs at? In 2005, that was about 30 wins! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baron Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 (edited) QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 04:21 PM) In 2005, that was about 30 wins! That's the problem. It's pretty up in the air for how much they're worth. But I've been really conservative and been saying about 4-5 games. There's some margin for error there. I think that puts us right in the mix for a playoff spot. Edited January 22, 2016 by Baron Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 03:37 PM) Cespedes saved 14 runs in LF last season. Our outfield as a whole gave up about around 30. Adam Eaton and obviously Garcia were the main contributors to that. Say by adding him in LF and switching around the OF you get close to breaking even. I dont think Eaton is going to have a repeat of 2015 defensively. What do you value 30 runs at? it is a discussion question. There is no right or wrong answer, but I wanted to see how important people think Cespedes actually is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baron Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 (edited) QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 04:28 PM) it is a discussion question. There is no right or wrong answer, but I wanted to see how important people think Cespedes actually is. In a perfect world we would have a team that atleast broke even on defense across the board. But that's obviously not going to happen. But your offense atleast has to make up for the lacking defense. We didnt have that in the outfield either. Plus it doesnt help when across the board you have some of the worst full time outfielders in baseball defensively. Just too much to overcome. I think Cespedes would help subside some of that pressure. With the defense and added runs...we could be right in the hunt. I dont expect Eaton to repeat that absolutely dismal performance last year either. Edited January 22, 2016 by Baron Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daggins Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I wouldn't say Cespedes is that important, so much as ANY upgrade in the OF is. I would say those projections for Avi are pretty optimistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The premise of competing vs. surely making the playoffs is too grey. Are we also to be limited in midseason moves as a result because of his theoretical contract's financial implications? We competed last July. How realistic were our actual playoff hopes? 5-10%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baron Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 QUOTE (daggins @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 04:33 PM) I wouldn't say Cespedes is that important, so much as ANY upgrade in the OF is. I would say those projections for Avi are pretty optimistic. Last I looked they gave Garcia a really nice boost on offense. They projected him worse on defense than last year which is hard to imagine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 (edited) Hard to say even if you use any advanced metric because not only have the Sox changed but so have other teams. Will the Sox starting pitching be better ? Defense ? Relief Pitching ? I think it's a given the offense should be better even much better with Frazier and Cespedes and the upgrade at catcher and 2nd base. Last year the Sox played more 1 run games than any team .They were 29-30 in 1 run games. That might suggest with just a little more offense and the same pitching that record in itself could be much better. Cespedes has always driven in runs and hit with RISP. He would be insurance in case Frazier doesn't transition well from the NL .Together Abreu and Cespedes would be polarizing and dynamic . There's no doubt at all in my mind that Cespedes would hit and hit well . He'd also upgrade the OF defense and add another fast runner to the lineup . He also moves all the worst players down a notch on the roster. So LaRoche plays less, Avi plays less etc. I think at his best he's a huge difference maker as he showed with the Mets last year. I've seen projections for him from around 3 to 4.4 bWAR . All I know is it sure would be fun to find out the difference he would make. Winning is so much more fun than .500 or less. Edited January 23, 2016 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knackattack Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 If we could find a way to get Avi in LF, I'd be fine with him getting one more year to show he can handle major league hitting. I think he, as it stands, will improve a little bit and be something like .260/.310/.420 with something like 20 HR, which is okay if you're not negating it all by being the worst right fielder I've seen in quite awhile. Cespedes in left with Melky in right.. LF is going to be great there and it should help Eaton, but I think the main thing we need to upgrade is the RF defense. Find a guy who can hit a little bit too (need another 20 HR bat in the line-up for a playoff caliber team, IMO) it's all the better. Signing a defensive guy, like Austin Jackson, and then Desmond for SS makes us a playoff caliber team. A full year of Cespedes, if his defense in LF helps Eaton in CF and he can hit 30 HR makes us a playoff caliber team. We really just need a little more power and better OF defense to get there, imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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