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FG Top 130 prospects

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Sucks not to see any of luis gonzalez, basabe, adolfo, walker or rutherford in a top 130 but I feel 100% confident one of them will perform as one of the top 130 prospects in game for their career.

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wow didn't even see Eloy at 8. I would bet $100 he has a better career than Nick Senzel.

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In their last updated rankings, which I think was done after the season, Eloy was top 3 I think, and Collins was #68. Weird to see Eloy lose 5 spots over the offseason, and Collins drop 60+ spots without any games or injuries occurring.

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Just now, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

In their last updated rankings, which I think was done after the season, Eloy was top 3 I think, and Collins was #68. Weird to see Eloy lose 5 spots over the offseason, and Collins drop 60+ spots without any games or injuries occurring.

I was more shocked by Royce Lewis somehow being ranked better. 

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Just now, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

In their last updated rankings, which I think was done after the season, Eloy was top 3 I think, and Collins was #68. Weird to see Eloy lose 5 spots over the offseason, and Collins drop 60+ spots without any games or injuries occurring.

Clearly the quad injury did effect it thought. Eloy is averaging like 3 injuries per year and that was basically their writeup.

It sucks because it's something I don't even want to think about with him. It would be so terrible for him to be like our own AJ Pollock version. But, now he'll be in big leagues with proper nutrition available and trainers. 

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One thing that kinda sucks about the fangraphs guys recently is it's clear chisox system no longer has their focus or interest. They basically only pick questions on Madrigal (always the same answers), nothing else really is said. Mainly because we've had the same guys for 2 years now and nobody make a big move, just attrition all over.

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Eminor3rd

12:39

Could you elaborate a bit more on the flaws you mentioned in Eloy Jimenez's write-up? Specifically RE: body size, injury proneness?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:39

Forgive me but I think listing his entire injury history in the writeup is pretty elaborate.\\

 

+++

I am a fan of kiley and eric's writing and personality, but as a sox fan hoping to get insight, it has been incredibly annoying the past 3 months having them answer 10,000 words on every yankees prospect that's asked and basically only answering questions on nick madrigal, and stuff like this. But, I also worry that this reflects a negative attitude from industry toward sox prospects.

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1 hour ago, bmags said:

wow didn't even see Eloy at 8. I would bet $100 he has a better career than Nick Senzel.

Eric mentioned in the chat the injury history and body type leaning to see him more as a DH rather than RF.

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1 hour ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

In their last updated rankings, which I think was done after the season, Eloy was top 3 I think, and Collins was #68. Weird to see Eloy lose 5 spots over the offseason, and Collins drop 60+ spots without any games or injuries occurring.

Adolfo & Basabe were both top 100 guys in their 2018 updated rankings.

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1 hour ago, bmags said:

Eminor3rd

12:39

Could you elaborate a bit more on the flaws you mentioned in Eloy Jimenez's write-up? Specifically RE: body size, injury proneness?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:39

Forgive me but I think listing his entire injury history in the writeup is pretty elaborate.\\

 

+++

I am a fan of kiley and eric's writing and personality, but as a sox fan hoping to get insight, it has been incredibly annoying the past 3 months having them answer 10,000 words on every yankees prospect that's asked and basically only answering questions on nick madrigal, and stuff like this. But, I also worry that this reflects a negative attitude from industry toward sox prospects.

I guess I didn’t word my question very clearly. Obviously I wasn’t asking for more detail on his injuries, but instead if they felt he was going to be injury prone going forward, and maybe if that was what made them drop him to #8.

But yeah, #boomroasted, haha

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6 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

I guess I didn’t word my question very clearly. Obviously I wasn’t asking for more detail on his injuries, but instead if they felt he was going to be injury prone going forward, and maybe if that was what made them drop him to #8.

But yeah, #boomroasted, haha

I place a lot of value in scouts discussion on the offensive or batting impact of prospects and their pitching motions and pitches and it's future impact. I place a lot less value in body projection and position projection.

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It's hard for me to be super invested in this stuff anymore. The top end of our system is so good, I just don't get that worried and know that the exact ordering is shuffling deck chairs a bit. And I really like the group of guys who are getting snubbed on these lists and am confident some will soon be on these lists.

That being said, FG saying Kopech has #3 ceiling is a joke. If a guy who throws 100mph fastballs with elite spin, life, etc., has a plus-plus offspeed pitch, and two other ones that show flashes, and has dominated AAA as a starting pitcher, his ceiling is an ace. Period. The prospect publications basically never say a pitcher has a ceiling as an ace, which basically means most aces were once said to not have a ceiling that high. I can read between the lines when they say a player who is obviously a potential ace is described as a potential #2. Saying Kopech has #3 ceiling is flat out stupid.

I also question FG's rating of Cease, particularly because I've seen them talk about how they don't think he is at all likely to make it as a starter. I don't know how dominant and consistent a guy has to be as a starting pitcher to get even the least benefit of the doubt about his likelihood to cut it as a starter.

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17 minutes ago, Jake said:

It's hard for me to be super invested in this stuff anymore. The top end of our system is so good, I just don't get that worried and know that the exact ordering is shuffling deck chairs a bit. And I really like the group of guys who are getting snubbed on these lists and am confident some will soon be on these lists.

 That being said, FG saying Kopech has #3 ceiling is a joke. If a guy who throws 100mph fastballs with elite spin, life, etc., has a plus-plus offspeed pitch, and two other ones that show flashes, and has dominated AAA as a starting pitcher, his ceiling is an ace. Period. The prospect publications basically never say a pitcher has a ceiling as an ace, which basically means most aces were once said to not have a ceiling that high. I can read between the lines when they say a player who is obviously a potential ace is described as a potential #2. Saying Kopech has #3 ceiling is flat out stupid.

I also question FG's rating of Cease, particularly because I've seen them talk about how they don't think he is at all likely to make it as a starter. I don't know how dominant and consistent a guy has to be as a starting pitcher to get even the least benefit of the doubt about his likelihood to cut it as a starter.

A couple answers:

1. A number 3 ceiling is about as high as most guys will go. The scouting definition of a number one is 5 WAR a season for a sustained period of time. Literally only Sale, Kershaw, and Scherzer have met that criteria over the time period. A number 1 isn't what most fans think - a top 15ish/20ish pitcher in baseball. A number 1 in scouting minds is a top 3 arm in baseball for an extended period of time and scouts simply don't project that for anyone usually. Kopech is also coming off Tommy John and etc... a number 3 is a glowing endorsement for a guy with his up and downs. It doesn't mean Kopech can't be on of the best pitchers in baseball - it means that the top 20% of his outcomes averages out as a good #3 which is 3+ WAR for a sustained period of time. His top 10% outcome is that of a number one maybe, but no prospect ranker will say that.

2. Fangraphs doesn't love Cease and their ranking move actually shows they're coming around. They had Cease as a reliever even half way through last year - his size, injury history, durability and etc were concerns for him. Cease isn't very big, he throws hard, and he has had arm issues. I will say that their insistence on his stuff being better suited for the bullpen always seemed stubborn to me after last year - clearly the kid has the stuff to be a starter in the big leagues. 

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8 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

A couple answers:

1. A number 3 ceiling is about as high as most guys will go. The scouting definition of a number one is 5 WAR a season for a sustained period of time. Literally only Sale, Kershaw, and Scherzer have met that criteria over the time period. A number 1 isn't what most fans think - a top 15ish/20ish pitcher in baseball. A number 1 in scouting minds is a top 3 arm in baseball for an extended period of time and scouts simply don't project that for anyone usually. Kopech is also coming off Tommy John and etc... a number 3 is a glowing endorsement for a guy with his up and downs. It doesn't mean Kopech can't be on of the best pitchers in baseball - it means that the top 20% of his outcomes averages out as a good #3 which is 3+ WAR for a sustained period of time. His top 10% outcome is that of a number one maybe, but no prospect ranker will say that.

2. Fangraphs doesn't love Cease and their ranking move actually shows they're coming around. They had Cease as a reliever even half way through last year - his size, injury history, durability and etc were concerns for him. Cease isn't very big, he throws hard, and he has had arm issues. I will say that their insistence on his stuff being better suited for the bullpen always seemed stubborn to me after last year - clearly the kid has the stuff to be a starter in the big leagues. 

Whether he reaches it is not the question if you're talking about ceiling. Is there some reason to think Kopech cannot stay healthy for 3 straight years? Is there some reason to think that he cannot come back from TJS to where he was beforehand? He may have the potential to have some issues down the road with further injuries, but that does not affect his ceiling.

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3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Whether he reaches it is not the question if you're talking about ceiling. Is there some reason to think Kopech cannot stay healthy for 3 straight years? Is there some reason to think that he cannot come back from TJS to where he was beforehand? He may have the potential to have some issues down the road with further injuries, but that does not affect his ceiling.

The mistake people make is that when someone says his ceiling, they mean the mean of the top 20% of outcomes. They don't mean his absolute top 1% outcome. If a ceiling was every prospects top 1% outcome, then all the top 100 pitching prospects would have #1 ceilings. 

If you read FG's break down of #1, #2 and #3 you'll realize that being projected as a number three means he's projected to be a top 20ish starter in baseball as his mean top 20% outcome. A ceiling is not the best possible outcome it is the most likely top 20% outcome.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run

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Here is the breakdown:

A #3 is 3.5-4.9 WAR. That would put him - on the high side - as the 11th best starter in baseball last year, on the low side it puts him 18th. That's a reasonable projection.

Pitcher WAR Mapped to 20-80 Scale
Scouting Scale Role WAR
20 Org Guy
30 Up & Down < -0.1
40 Backend starters, FIP typically close to 5.00 0.0 to 0.9
45 #4/5 starters, FIP approx 4.20 1.0 to 1.7
50 #4 starters. Approx 4.00 FIP, at times worse but then with lots of innings 1.8 to 2.5
55 #3/4 starters. Approx 3.70 FIP along with about 160 IP 2.6 to 3.4
60 #3 starters, 3.30 FIP, volume approaching 200 innings 3.5 to 4.9
70 #2 starters, FIP under 3, about 200 IP 5.0 to 7.0
80 #1s. Top 1-3 arms in baseball. ‘Ace’ if they do it several years in a row. >7.0

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2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The mistake people make is that when someone says his ceiling, they mean the mean of the top 20% of outcomes. They don't mean his absolute top 1% outcome. If a ceiling was every prospects top 1% outcome, then all the top 100 pitching prospects would have #1 ceilings. 

If you read FG's break down of #1, #2 and #3 you'll realize that being projected as a number three means he's projected to be a top 20ish starter in baseball as his mean top 20% outcome. A ceiling is not the best possible outcome it is the most likely top 20% outcome.

I would never use or interpret the term ceiling that way. When someone says "Ceiling" to me they're referring to the highest point the person can reach possibly, not some percentile. If I throw something at my wall, it will hit above a certain level 20% of the time, but it will bounce off the ceiling and head back down. 

If we're redefining ceiling to mean something other than their absolute peak, then we need a term like "Roof" to refer to "The person's absolute possible best". That's one of the things we care about. Jacob DeGrom may never put up an 8 WAR season again, but "8 WAR" is a helluva thing to reach once.

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5 hours ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

In their last updated rankings, which I think was done after the season, Eloy was top 3 I think, and Collins was #68. Weird to see Eloy lose 5 spots over the offseason, and Collins drop 60+ spots without any games or injuries occurring.

Rankers tend to give high draft picks the benefit of the doubt for a season or 2.  Our top guys are very good, as they should be...we gave up a lot to acquire them.

But the ongoing absence of draft picks is troubling and gives me pause as to whether this pipeline will be continually replenished.

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4 hours ago, bmags said:

I am a fan of kiley and eric's writing and personality, but as a sox fan hoping to get insight, it has been incredibly annoying the past 3 months having them answer 10,000 words on every yankees prospect that's asked and basically only answering questions on nick madrigal, and stuff like this. But, I also worry that this reflects a negative attitude from industry toward sox prospects.

Honestly seeing them not really answering Sox questions anymore made me think this too. I worry that part of it is that the Sox development/coaching staff has generally been bad and we are being left behind in the new wave of tech/analytics, so its less likely our prospects will perform close to their ceiling than prospects for other teams, so they bake that into the ratings. I know that might sound conspiratorial, but these guys are often judged by how the prospects perform in the majors compared to their ranking/rating, so they might want to rank a guy in a bad developmental system lower than if that same player were in a good developmental system because even with the same talent he might get worse results.

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9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I would never use or interpret the term ceiling that way. When someone says "Ceiling" to me they're referring to the highest point the person can reach possibly, not some percentile. If I throw something at my wall, it will hit above a certain level 20% of the time, but it will bounce off the ceiling and head back down. 

If we're redefining ceiling to mean something other than their absolute peak, then we need a term like "Roof" to refer to "The person's absolute possible best". That's one of the things we care about. Jacob DeGrom may never put up an 8 WAR season again, but "8 WAR" is a helluva thing to reach once.

Yes, but that is not how scouts refer to ceiling. That's what I am saying. In scout speak, a ceiling is the most likely (mean) of his top 20% outcomes. They explain that on baseball prospectus and fangraphs pretty thoroughly if you read their ranking procedure. 

You are mistaking a casual fans definition with the actual definition used by talent evaluators in the game.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run

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6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I would never use or interpret the term ceiling that way. When someone says "Ceiling" to me they're referring to the highest point the person can reach possibly, not some percentile. If I throw something at my wall, it will hit above a certain level 20% of the time, but it will bounce off the ceiling and head back down. 

If we're redefining ceiling to mean something other than their absolute peak, then we need a term like "Roof" to refer to "The person's absolute possible best". That's one of the things we care about. Jacob DeGrom may never put up an 8 WAR season again, but "8 WAR" is a helluva thing to reach once.

Yet they have said that is generally what they do because otherwise most prospects ceiling would be MVP, 10 WAR seasons, etc. Instead they use some realistic maximum value as the ceiling because it gives an idea of what could plausibly happen.

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6 minutes ago, GenericUserName said:

Honestly seeing them not really answering Sox questions anymore made me think this too. I worry that part of it is that the Sox development/coaching staff has generally been bad and we are being left behind in the new wave of tech/analytics, so its less likely our prospects will perform close to their ceiling than prospects for other teams, so they bake that into the ratings. I know that might sound conspiratorial, but these guys are often judged by how the prospects perform in the majors compared to their ranking/rating, so they might want to rank a guy in a bad developmental system lower than if that same player were in a good developmental system because even with the same talent he might get worse results.

Yep, feel the same. Save us matt lisle.

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Floor is mean of the lowest 20% outcomes. 

Expected Outcome is the mean of the middle 80%.

Ceiling is the mean of the top 20% outcomes.

8 WAR is great, but in scout speak a number 1 is a someone who can average 7 WAR over an extended period of time. Having one season over 7 doesn't put you in the class; it's multiple seasons averaging nearly 7 WAR per that is required to be a number one based on their evaluation. 

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