Mid-Year Top 10 Prospects

[maxjusttyped]

I can't ever recall seeing a prospect who makes contact at the rate Madrigal does. A 1.9% K rate in AA is absurd. I know everyone is aware he's an elite contact hitter, but the degree to which he's an outlier can't be overstated enough. If he's striking out ~3% of the time in the majors, it'd be almost impossible to not be an above-average hitter and that's if his power never develops at all.

[mqr]

3 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

I can't ever recall seeing a prospect who makes contact at the rate Madrigal does. A 1.9% K rate in AA is absurd. I know everyone is aware he's an elite contact hitter, but the degree to which he's an outlier can't be overstated enough. If he's striking out ~3% of the time in the majors, it'd be almost impossible to not be an above-average hitter and that's if his power never develops at all.

Willians Astudillo would be your point of comparison, and he stinks. So it’s possible. Madrigal being able to run helps though. I also imagine Nick will be able to walk more than he strikesout unlike Astudillo 

Edited July 8, 2019 by mqr

[danman31]

15 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

And Vaughn is a 30 runner stuck at 1B. Vaughn needs to be, what, one of the 5/10 best hitters in baseball to be a 5 win player? Madrigal needs to merely below average at hitting for power for a shot to be a 5 win player.

I don't see Madrigal being "merely below average" at power as more likely than Vaughn being a top 5-10 hitter in baseball, to be honest. The way Madrigal swings there's no way he's going to add notable power.

I didn't think this was a controversial take. Listen to Law and Callis talk about Madrigal, and it's the same thing: There's just no path to him having a high OPS. He can hit for high average, walk an OK amount and be a slap hitter while being a good baserunner and very good fielder. That's still a limited ceiling though.

[maxjusttyped]

1. Luis Robert

2. Nick Madrigal

3. Michael Kopech

4. Dylan Cease

5. Andrew Vaughn

6. Zack Collins

7.  Dane Dunning

8. Blake Rutherford

9. Luis Basabe

10. Steele Walker

[bmags]

11 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

And Vaughn is a 30 runner stuck at 1B. Vaughn needs to be, what, one of the 5/10 best hitters in baseball to be a 5 win player? Madrigal needs to merely below average at hitting for power for a shot to be a 5 win player.

I don’t really know how to manage the likelihood’s. But what Alonso is doing in NY makes me say that yes, while forecasting a player to be a top 15 hitter in baseball is silly, saying Vaughn’s ceiling is as a top hitter is what I think his ceiling is, and Alonso certainly at his ceiling is at a 9 WAR pace.

Now, the issue may be Vaughn’s power potential. But I do think even looking at hoskins he’s on pace for 4.5 on a very good year.

Madrigal I just can’t really see topping 6 wins in his best year. Basically Eaton’s best year which means finding that power.

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, danman31 said:

I don't see Madrigal being "merely below average" at power as more likely than Vaughn being a top 5-10 hitter in baseball, to be honest. The way Madrigal swings there's no way he's going to add notable power.

I didn't think this was a controversial take. Listen to Law and Callis talk about Madrigal, and it's the same thing: There's just no path to him having a high OPS. He can hit for high average, walk an OK amount and be a slap hitter while being a good baserunner and very good fielder. That's still a limited ceiling though.

I actually think it’s not enough to say he needs to be a good base runner, I think he’ll need to be elite in baserunning metrics to max out his value. Question for me is is there a willians astudillo amount of power out of Madrigal when he’s 26/27.

[maxjusttyped]

5 minutes ago, mqr said:

Willians Astudillo would be your point of comparison, and he stinks. So it’s possible. Madrigal being able to run helps though. I also imagine Nick will be able to walk more than he strikesout unlike Astudillo 

I don't think it's actually clear Astudillo *stinks* as a hitter. He's someone with plus plus contact that offers nothing outside of that. If Madrigal is a 98 wRC+ guy (that's Astudillo's career average & around his projections) with baserunning and defensive value he's still going to be a very good player. But like you said, Madrigal's speed (certainly) and plate discipline (likely) are ahead of Astudillo, too. When you put the entire package together I can't ever recall a prospect like him.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

He's not going to be close to an elite base stealer.  He's at a 69% success rate in the low minors.  Wait until he gets to the big leagues where pitchers actually care about holding runners close and a catcher can consistently put throws on the bag.  He'll steal some on the pitchers who get lazy but he won't get that bag when everyone in the ballpark knows he's running.  That's what the elite base stealers do.

[mqr]

10 minutes ago, bmags said:

I don’t really know how to manage the likelihood’s. But what Alonso is doing in NY makes me say that yes, while forecasting a player to be a top 15 hitter in baseball is silly, saying Vaughn’s ceiling is as a top hitter is what I think his ceiling is, and Alonso certainly at his ceiling is at a 9 WAR pace.

Now, the issue may be Vaughn’s power potential. But I do think even looking at hoskins he’s on pace for 4.5 on a very good year.

Madrigal I just can’t really see topping 6 wins in his best year. Basically Eaton’s best year which means finding that power.

I just don’t think Eaton’s best year is too much to ask. 

And I think your looking at an Abreu type output from Vaughn rather than cartoony power numbers. 

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, mqr said:

I just don’t think Eaton’s best year is too much to ask. 

And I think your looking at an Abreu type output from Vaughn rather than cartoony power numbers. 

Eaton has a 9% BB rate, 14 HRs, and 9 triples. He’ll need to walk more than now, and hit for WAY more power or have a .350 avg

[turnin' two]

39 minutes ago, mqr said:

They're both pretty low ceiling guys. They could both be all-star type players, but neither is going to be like a top 15 player in baseball. 

Madrigal's ceiling will always be limited by his power and Vaughn's his position/athleticism. 

So based on this comment, is it your opinion that none of Frank Thomas, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols or Paul Goldschmidt were ever top 15 players because they were limited by position/athleticism? 

[mqr]

8 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

So based on this comment, is it your opinion that none of Frank Thomas, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols or Paul Goldschmidt were ever top 15 players because they were limited by position/athleticism? 

I think it’s more my opinion that it’s really unlikely that Vaughn will be on the short list of best hitters who have ever lived like 3 of the guys you just named. 

The ceiling I picture for Vaughn is something like Rizzo. 

Edited July 8, 2019 by mqr

[turnin' two]

9 minutes ago, mqr said:

I think it’s more my opinion that it’s really unlikely that Vaughn will be on the short list of best hitters who have ever lived like 3 of the guys you just named. 

Yeah, it is unlikely.  But the point is, if he mashes, he can certainly be one of the best players in the game.  Matt Carpenter was a 5 WAR player last season.  Max Muncy was over 4, and he had negative defensive value.  Vaughn's bat seems like it pretty highly regarded.  If he hits like people think he can hit, his position won't matter at all.

Heck, Pete Alonso is at 4 WAR right now.  Who wouldn't love to have him in the middle of your lineup.  Does anyone care that he is a butcher in the field?

Edited July 8, 2019 by turnin' two

[Chicago White Sox]

6 hours ago, Flash said:

I agree on Rutherford. Its pretty remarkable he's been able to turn things around at Birmingham and if he develops just a tad more power, he has potential to be the answer in RF. Just needs a bit more time.

What did Blake turn around other than BABIP normalization?  Hopefully, I’m missing something from not getting to see him much this year, but statistically he’s pretty much the same other than some batted ball regression.

[Soxfest]

Adolfo not top 10 at this point, too many question marks 

[Chicago White Sox]

6 hours ago, turnin' two said:

I think it is easy for people to forget this and perhaps be a bit worn out on Rutherford.  Rutherford's OPS was higher in WS last year, than what Walker has put up this year.  WIth that said, they are very close.  Like .005 close.  But Rutherford turned 21 while he was at WS, and Walker will turn 23 this month.  They seem to be similar types of hitters with similar types of production but Rutherford is younger and more advanced.  Hopefully his recent surge is a sign that he has adjusted to the AA crucible.  Hopefully Walker gets there soon and continues to hit.  

Gotta disagree here for several reasons.  First, Walker has demonstrated better plate discipline than Blake.  Second, Walker’s been the victim of bad batted ball luck (his BABIP is 60 points lower than Rutherford’s was at High A).  Finally, you’re evaluating Walker on a much smaller sample size where his initial adjustment phase brings down his overall numbers.  Over his last 33 games he’s put up a wRC+ of 141 and that has jumped up to 168 over his last 20 (both with normal BABIPs).  He’s starting to dominate the league and I’d wager that his numbers would blow Blake’s out of the water if given a full season in Winston Salem.  Also, I think Steele has the superior set of tools and doesn’t have a launch angle issue that he’ll need to overcome to be successful.

[Chicago White Sox]

5 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

We are attempting this for FutureSox right now. I'm currently doing this: 

1. Luis Robert OF

2. Michael Kopech RHP

3. Dylan Cease RHP

4. Nick Madrigal 2B

5. Andrew Vaughn 1B

6. Zack Collins C

7. Dane Dunning RHP

8. Steele Walker OF

9. Luis Alexander Basabe OF

10. Andrew Dalquist RHP

11. Micker Adolfo OF

12. Blake Rutherford OF

13. Luis Gonzalez OF

14. Matthew Thompson RHP

15. Yolbert Sanchez SS 

No Gavin Sheets in the top 15?  Do you not buy into his recent power surge?

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, danman31 said:

Vaughn has a lower ceiling?! Man, Madrigal has one good month and suddenly this guy is a rock star. Madrigal is the very definition of limited ceiling.

Dude has a 1.9% K rate in AA with a 4.5 BB to K ratio.  That is absolute insanity and reflective of elite, border-lining on historic bat control.  Add in the juiced ball and a bit more lift and the kid has a chance to be a star when you factor in his base running & defense.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

2 HR's in 499 minor league PA's.  

So?

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, mqr said:

They're both pretty low ceiling guys. They could both be all-star type players, but neither is going to be like a top 15 player in baseball. 

Madrigal's ceiling will always be limited by his power and Vaughn's his position/athleticism. 

Both guys have 5 win ceilings IMO and I would strongly disagree that should be considered low.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, mqr said:

Willians Astudillo would be your point of comparison, and he stinks. So it’s possible. Madrigal being able to run helps though. I also imagine Nick will be able to walk more than he strikesout unlike Astudillo 

So basically he’s not a good comp outside of a great K rate.

Even with limited power, Madrigal could legit be a .330/.390/.820 hitter in the majors with plus base-running and defense.  That right there could be a 5 win player (not far off from 2014 Altuve) and that’s not even his ceiling with even league average power.

[TomPickle]

Also, while I am #TeamMadrigal Vaughn is the guy I wanted in the draft this year. I believe in his bat, but when that is your only path to the big leagues I need to see more than 30 PAs to have him jump a guy with three 60+ grade tools.

[turnin' two]

19 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Gotta disagree here for several reasons.  First, Walker has demonstrated better plate discipline than Blake.  Second, Walker’s been the victim of bad batted ball luck (his BABIP is 60 points lower than Rutherford’s was at High A).  Finally, you’re evaluating Walker on a much smaller sample size where his initial adjustment phase brings down his overall numbers.  Over his last 33 games he’s put up a wRC+ of 141 and that has jumped up to 168 over his last 20 (both with normal BABIPs).  He’s starting to dominate the league and I’d wager that his numbers would blow Blake’s out of the water if given a full season in Winston Salem.  Also, I think Steele has the superior set of tools and doesn’t have a launch angle issue that he’ll need to overcome to be successful.

Yeah, he walks more and K's less.  He is also 1 year and a half older and played 3 years of big time NCAA baseball, so... he should really BB more and K less right?  

You're right that Walker is improving, and his numbers right now are incomplete and SSS.  I didn't write that, because I thought it was inherent to the conversation.  Rutherford had a terrible start and maybe it was due to bad luck.  He is hot right now and maybe that is good luck.  So, he is normalizing.  In a terrible hitter's park.  In a league that is a very challenging jump from A ball.  That doesn't seem all bad.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, mqr said:

I think it’s more my opinion that it’s really unlikely that Vaughn will be on the short list of best hitters who have ever lived like 3 of the guys you just named. 

The ceiling I picture for Vaughn is something like Rizzo. 

Rizzo has been a 5 win player multiple times, that’s high ceiling in my book.

[mqr]

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Rizzo has been a 5 win player multiple times, that’s high ceiling in my book.

Yeah that fair. I just mean neither guy has the seemingly unlimited ceiling a Moncada, Robert or even Eloy has.