2021 MLB Draft Thread

[DirtySox]

Longenhagen on Wes Kath.

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Wes Kath, SS, Desert Mountain High School

High schoolers with profiles driven by their hit tool are becoming more sought-after in the draft room, and every year there are guys who don’t light up the showcase circuit workouts with big tools and instead need some combination of time and impressive swing-and-miss data to be appreciated. Kath is one of those players. On Tuesday, his high school won the Arizona 5A State Championship as Kath homered and reached base several times. He has a sweet lefty swing and advanced bat control, as well as a good baseball frame. He’s currently a shortstop and is capable of making routine plays there, with a sufficient arm for short and good body control, but his size and slow-twitch movements might push him to third base, and some scouts think he’ll eventually end up at first. Kath does not have big bat speed, and his swing tends to look long when he offers at lower pitches, but that’s what has to happen for him to get the barrel there with lift. West Coast hit tool guys like this tend to sign for close to $1 million.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-thursday-scouting-notebook-5-20-2021/

Edited May 20, 2021 by DirtySox

[Y2Jimmy0]

10 hours ago, bmags said:

MLB Pipeline choosing the sox to take the "falling-college-player-pipeline-was-probably-too-high-on" is sort of a time-honored tradition at this point and not a big worry of mine.

 

Sox haven't been connected at all to the guy but if that's the board my 1.a would be Hogland and my 1b would be Taylor. People will lose their minds and call him rutherford but I don't care.

I’m guessing Hoglund still gets $3 million and Sox really can’t do that 

[DirtySox]

 

[DirtySox]

I don't know anything about Gilbert, but dat bat throw.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

If he didn't have that hitch Montgomery would be 1-1 and it wouldn't be close.  Dude's an athletic freak.  Some team is going to drop their sack on the table to draft him but then again Hunter Pence made an ugly swing work.  

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Pacheco has such a pretty swing.  This may be my guy.  

[DirtySox]

James has a mock up with picks for the White Sox in the first 3 rounds. I know little to nothing about the first selection. Time to do some research. Would be curious on Harold's take on Montgomery.

https://www.futuresox.com/2021/05/23/2021-mlb-mock-draft-3/

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22. Chicago White Sox: Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge HS (IN)

The White Sox haven’t selected a prep position player in the first round since drafting Courtney Hawkins in 2012, but they’ve been all over the prep class. The left side of the infield appears to be the scouting focus for the club. Montgomery is 6-foot-4 and 190 pounds. The left-handed hitter is committed to play baseball at Indiana and there’s a spot on the basketball team waiting for him. He has a strong history with wood bats and is a very physical athlete. His body has drawn comps to Corey Seager at the same stage of development. Montgomery has the potential to hit for average and power. He’s a present shortstop that likely transitions to third base in the future. He’s 19 years old already, which will be an issue for some clubs. The White Sox have had a heavy presence in attendance for Montgomery and he seems like a definite possibility at this pick.

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2nd Round: Sean Burke, RHP, Maryland

This would be a dream scenario for the White Sox as they’ve been linked to Burke in the early going. The 6-foot-6, 230-pounder has a premium fastball that touches the high 90s with movement. He has Tommy John surgery as a freshman and has improved his stuff this year with the Terps. He walks too many guys and his secondary offerings are inconsistent, but his spin rates are stellar and he could go much higher than this in July.

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3rd Round: Andrew Abbott, LHP, Virginia

Abbott has had lots of success on the Cape and at Virginia pitching out of the bullpen, but he’s starting in 2021. The 6-foot, 175-pounder has good stuff and a fiery, competitive demeanor on the mound. Lauded for outstanding makeup, he also has a plus curveball with a developing changeup that could also be plus in the future. Could move quickly in a relief role but should be given the chance to start.

 

Edited May 23, 2021 by DirtySox

[DirtySox]

BA's scouting reports on the aforementioned players.

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121.) Colson Montgomery

Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 195 | B-T: L-R
Commit/Drafted: Indiana
Age At Draft: 19.4

Preseason Report: In a class that features quite a few interesting Midwest bats, many scouts believe Montgomery has one of the purest swings in the class. A 6-foot-3, 195-pound shortstop committed to Indiana, Montgomery has a simple, smooth lefthanded swing and projects for solid power in the future as well. Evaluators think he has all the elements in his swing and approach to be a good hitter in the future, but most expect he’ll have to move off of shortstop. While he’s an impressive athlete with solid actions and good body control, he’ll likely outgrow the position and might be a better fit for third base. His speed also fits better on a corner, as Montgomery is a below-average straight-line runner who clocked a 7.02-second 60-yard time at East Coast Pro.

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44.) Sean Burke

Ht: 6-6 | Wt: 230 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 21.6

Preseason Report: Burke was a promising pitching prospect out of high school in 2018—No. 209 on the BA 500—thanks to a projectable 6-foot-5, 205-pound frame and a strong fastball/curveball combination. He missed the 2019 season thanks to Tommy John surgery and in 2020 is now more filled out to a 6-foot-6, 230-pound frame. If Burke had a full 2020 season to work with, he might be a more well-known name, as he started out strong and has impressive stuff to match. In 22.2 innings and four starts, Burke pitched to a 2.38 ERA while striking out 35 batters (more than any other freshman Division I pitcher) and walking 11. Burke is something of an analytics darling, with a 92-95 mph fastball that he uses to pound the top of the zone and follows it up with a plus curveball that he buries at the bottom. He does have feel for a changeup, but his fastball/curveball combo is the main event. Black has a clean delivery and plenty of athleticism—he was a talented basketball player in high school—and has a chance to be a Day one draft selection.

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116.) Andrew Abbot

Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 175 | B-T: L-L
Commit/Drafted: Yankees '17 (36)
Age At Draft: 22.1

Preseason Report: A small-framed, 6 feet, 175-pound lefthander, Abbott has been a consistent weapon for Virginia’s bullpen since he stepped on campus. After adding nine relief appearances in the shortened 2020 season, Abbott has a 3.24 career ERA for the Cavaliers in 108.1 innings of work, with 165 strikeouts (13.7 per nine) and 49 walks (4.1 per nine). He has also excelled as a reliever with Team USA and posted a 2.70 ERA in 26.2 innings in the Cape Cod League over two summers. Simply put, Abbott has done his job at a high level wherever he’s been. He can run his fastball into the 94-95 mph range, but sits in the 89-93 range typically, with a breaking ball in the mid-to-upper 70s that features solid depth. A competitive arm on the mound, Abbott has faced questions about his size and the durability issues that may come from that, but there aren’t many relievers in the class with as much extensive track record as he’s compiled throughout his career.

 

Edited May 23, 2021 by DirtySox

[southsider2k5]

Southridge is a tiny little basketball school in the middle of no where. I can't believe they will have a 1st round pick.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

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James has a mock up with picks for the White Sox in the first 3 rounds. I know little to nothing about the first selection. Time to do some research. Would be curious on Harold's take on Montgomery.

I like him but I think taking him at 1-22 is a reach.  There are questions with every HS player but Montgomery has more than others.  Some are questioning his feel/instincts for the game and whether he likes playing baseball more than he likes playing basketball.  The things to like about him are obvious. He's a big strong kid with good athleticism and plus power potential. The body comps to Corey Seager are easy but he's not Corey Seager.  Montgomery doesn't have the feet to stick at SS and will probably end up in an outfield corner. You have to dream on Montgomery more than others and I think there will be better all around players available at that pick. I think he would be a great 2nd round pick.  

[bmags]

man that's an old senior...

[Dominikk85]

19 minutes ago, bmags said:

man that's an old senior...

Yeah, not a big fan what I read here from Montgomery, maxed out body (195lb), old for the class, below average runner doesn't sound great for a HS infielder unless he has insane present Power and advanced hit tool that will play at a corner because the profile sounds like guaranteed shift to a corner. 

[DirtySox]

BA Mock 4.0.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/
 

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22.) CWS - Chase Petty

Mainland Regional HS, Linwood, N.J.RHP

The White Sox have gone after a few flamethrowers in recent drafts (Garrett Crochet, Jared Kelley) and if they wanted to chase velocity once again, Petty is the guy. He has the hardest fastball in the prep class and has shown glimpses of a plus slider as well, but there’s effort to his operation and spotty control at times. He figures to be a polarizing prospect for teams, but the sense around the industry seems to be that he’ll find a spot in the back of the first. Haughton (La.) High shortstop Peyton Stovall might be a target here as well.

I wouldn't be in love with this pick. Flamethrowing high school righty archetype, I don't think I would like Stovall either based off what I've read on his lack of a defensive acumen/position. I guess with Peyton you are banking on that hit and power tool carrying everything else.

Also worth noting, Fabian goes 26th to the Twins,

Edited May 24, 2021 by DirtySox

[DirtySox]

Here's the picks through 22.

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1.) PIT - Lawlar

2.) TEX - Mayer

3.) DET - House

4.) BOS - Leiter

5.) BAL - Davis

6.) AZ - Watson

7.) KC - Rocker

8.) COL - Frelick

9.) LAA - McClain

10.) NYM - Madden

11.) WAS - Jobe

12.) SEA - Cowser

13.) PHI - Wicks

14.) SF - Chandler

15.) MIL - Castillo

16.) MIA - Bachman

17.) CIN - Benny Montgomery

18.) STL - Hoglund

19.) TOR - Ford

20.) NYY - Painter

21.) CHC - McGreevy

22.) CWS - Petty

 

Edited May 24, 2021 by DirtySox

[DirtySox]

KG on Petty today btw.

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Ben

12:20

Looks like Chase Petty is getting some first-round buzz. Any thoughts on him?

Kevin Goldstein

12:20

Not the biggest fan. Little guy who throws VERY hard, but it's from a low slot and it certainly doesn't look easy. The whole thing has a bullpen feel for me.

 

Edited May 24, 2021 by DirtySox

[DirtySox]

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Dalton Wilcox

1:28

Does anyone like Harry Ford as much as I do?

Kevin Goldstein

1:29

Many do! He'll likely go in the teens somewhere, but future position is a question mark. Not in a bad way, he's just so athletic, that some have talked about the infield or even CF.

 

Edited May 24, 2021 by DirtySox

[Y2Jimmy0]

4 hours ago, bmags said:

man that's an old senior...

 

4 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

Yeah, not a big fan what I read here from Montgomery, maxed out body (195lb), old for the class, below average runner doesn't sound great for a HS infielder unless he has insane present Power and advanced hit tool that will play at a corner because the profile sounds like guaranteed shift to a corner. 

This always humors me. He's old for the class. If he went to college though and declared in two years, he'd be getting praised for being young in the class. Funny how that works. 

[bmags]

1 hour ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

 

This always humors me. He's old for the class. If he went to college though and declared in two years, he'd be getting praised for being young in the class. Funny how that works. 

Him showing that he can dominate an higher level of competition at a younger age is more praiseworthy than dominating a lower-level of competition at an older age I agree.

[Dominikk85]

1 hour ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

 

This always humors me. He's old for the class. If he went to college though and declared in two years, he'd be getting praised for being young in the class. Funny how that works. 

The difference is that in that case he would have already demonstrated performance against high level college pitching. 

 

That doesn't mean there is no chance he will do that but it is something else when you have shown it then if you maybe do it. 

If course HS kids now also face some high level competition on showcases and not just their 80mph HS pitchers but not the same sample size and quality as college players. 

 

That makes HS players more uncertain to predict. 

In short in HS players you want upside and room to grow because if you want a mature, present performing player you could take a college player. 

That doesn't mean polished HS players are bad but you still prefer some room to grow instead of maxed out older guys. 

Obviously if he did go to college now and raked and then entered the draft as a draft eligible soph his stock would go up but he also would be a different player then because he would have taken part of the bust risk on his own shoulders. 

[Springfield Soxfan]

Please take a shot at Fabian if he is there!   Take HS pitching after that. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

3 hours ago, Springfield Soxfan said:

Please take a shot at Fabian if he is there!   Take HS pitching after that. 

They likely can’t afford prep pitching after taking a guy like Fabian 

[oldsox]

9 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

They likely can’t afford prep pitching after taking a guy like Fabian 

Would Fabian be much above slot?

[Y2Jimmy0]

30 minutes ago, oldsox said:

Would Fabian be much above slot?

Yeah I'm not sure. The Sox slot is around $3 million. As a draft eligible sophomore, he could probably return to Florida and get more than that. 

[Boopa1219]

Fabian is such a weird case study because he was a projected top 5 pick to open draft seasons and then he wasn’t even considered to be a first round guy by mid season but he’s played his way back into first round consideration.

Weird season. 

 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

That's why you scout the player and not the performance.  Your evaluation stays consistent.