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JUSTgottaBELIEVE

The Makings of a Juggernaut?

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45 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

I'll never understand why some fans don't see that winning at a *greater rate than your competitors* against bad teams, or against middling teams, is as good an indicator of your team quality as any.  

Exactly, there is a reason why there are "good" teams and "bad" teams.

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3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I really don't see this group as ready to be World Champs yet.  Playoffs, sure.

Who is ready, then?  Aside from the Dodgers.

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2 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Who is ready, then?  Aside from the Dodgers.

Rays again...maybe the Astros if they get lucky with pitching health.  Still not convinced Yankees or Blue Jays are quite there yet, either.  
 

Red Sox remain the mystery team, in many ways.

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Rays again...maybe the Astros if they get lucky with pitching health.  Still not convinced Yankees or Blue Jays are quite there yet, either.  
 

Red Sox remain the mystery team, in many ways.

A couple of those teams are likely not even making the playoffs, much less going all the way.  I guess I can see the Rays simply because they were there last year -- but unlike most years I look around the league and just don't see a lot of teams that strike me as better positioned than the Sox, especially if we get Eloy and Robert back with a few weeks to tune up. 

Edited by 35thstreetswarm

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56 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I really don't see this group as ready to be World Champs yet.  Playoffs, sure.

This group without Eloy , Robert and Madrigal or this group with them (assume Eloy and Robert come back and get to full strength by the playoffs and Madrigal is done for the year) and TDL guys ?

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10 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

This group without Eloy , Robert and Madrigal or this group with them (assume Eloy and Robert come back and get to full strength by the playoffs and Madrigal is done for the year) and TDL guys ?

It is asking too much of those guys to be out the vast majority of the season, and then carry a winning playoff load.

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6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It is asking too much of those guys to be out the vast majority of the season, and then carry a winning playoff load.

I feel like this is not going to be the best Sox team in the five year window...but to be confident that they won't win the WS...with the way Lynn, Cease, Rodon and Gio have been pitching?  Dominant starting pitching can take a team a long way...look at 2005 WS winner.    

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10 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I feel like this is not going to be the best Sox team in the five year window...but to be confident that they won't win the WS...with the way Lynn, Cease, Rodon and Gio have been pitching?  Dominant starting pitching can take a team a long way...look at 2005 WS winner.    

Even the statistical models have the Sox at somewhere between 7:1 and 10:1.  That is the definition of not confident.

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4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Even the statistical models have the Sox at somewhere between 7:1 and 10:1.  That is the definition of not confident.

I saw four different Vegas odds sights and all four had the White Sox as the most likely AL team to make the WS.  I'm not saying they will win...I'm saying the idea that "the team isn't ready" seems confidently pessimistic.  I'm not sure I've ever seen four starting pitchers as consistently dominant as this group has been.  Combined 275 innings, 1 WHIP, 88BB/350K.   If they started the playoffs tomorrow I'd be as confident as one can be given the randomness of baseball.   

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1 minute ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I saw four different Vegas odds sights and all four had the White Sox as the most likely AL team to make the WS.  I'm not saying they will win...I'm saying the idea that "the team isn't ready" seems confidently pessimistic.  I'm not sure I've ever seen four starting pitchers as consistently dominant as this group has been.  Combined 275 innings, 1 WHIP, 88BB/350K.   If they started the playoffs tomorrow I'd be as confident as one can be given the randomness of baseball.   

And they are 23-10 with a 2.60 ERA.  Honestly it's like throwing an ace out every game in a short series.  The defense is good, the offense has scored the third most runs in baseball.  And I'm not even counting Keuchel or Kopeck...and Robert and Jiminez are probably going to be back.  If not now, when?  

  

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33 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It is asking too much of those guys to be out the vast majority of the season, and then carry a winning playoff load.

Like it or not more power , speed and defense among the starters will help . They don't have to carry anything , just do better than the people you are replacing.

I think Eloy can be better than Vaughn, Lamb, Goodwinin LF at least offensively and Robert can be better than Engel Leury Hamilton, Goodwin. Then you have to pick among Vaughn Engel, Eaton Leury , Goodwin and Hamilton to be decent for RF and defensive replacements for Eloy or Eloy only DH's and you figure out what to do with Mercedes and then decide who plays LF  and RF among Engel , Vaughn, Eaton , Goodwin Hamilton and Leury.

Either way the guys lowest on the depth chart will be jettisoned eventually resulting in a stronger team.  At this point I have no idea who will be DFA or sent back to the minor or picked up at the TDL but the team will be better and perhaps much better.

Pitching is the other story and I'm less optimistic about that than I am the lineup.

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7 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I saw four different Vegas odds sights and all four had the White Sox as the most likely AL team to make the WS.  I'm not saying they will win...I'm saying the idea that "the team isn't ready" seems confidently pessimistic.  I'm not sure I've ever seen four starting pitchers as consistently dominant as this group has been.  Combined 275 innings, 1 WHIP, 88BB/350K.   If they started the playoffs tomorrow I'd be as confident as one can be given the randomness of baseball.   

Eh, #1, the Sox have to survive this season first with a relative amount of health.  If the pitching doesn't stay healthy, this team is toast.  So as a part of this we are relying on Carlos Rodon, who has been hurt more often in his career than not.  We are relying on Crochet and Kopech who are both looking at innings performances WAY over anything they have in recent years at best, ever at worst.  We are relying on Dylan Cease who has a career high of 141 innings.  We are relying on Dallas who missed a chunk of 2020, and missed half of 2019, as well as missing big chunks of 2016 and 2017,

#2, Vegas odds are not set to determine favorites, they are determined to maximize profits. 

I mean there are reasons to like the Sox chances, but there are  LOT of things that can go very wrong, and a good chunk of them aren't that far out of reality.

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29 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Even the statistical models have the Sox at somewhere between 7:1 and 10:1.  That is the definition of not confident.

That puts them within the top three or four to win the WS.  That's definitely not my definition of "not confident."

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Just now, 35thstreetswarm said:

That puts them within the top three or four to win the WS.  That's definitely not my definition of "not confident."

7:1 means 6 times out of 7 they don't win.  10:1 means 9 out of 10 they don't. 

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Just now, southsider2k5 said:

7:1 means 6 times out of 7 they don't win.  10:1 means 9 out of 10 they don't. 

Yes, I understand that's the way projections work.  What's your point?  Does a team has to have greater than a 50% chance to win the world series to make you feel good about their chances?  Won't find many teams that clear that bar -- ever, in any sport.

My point is that you have to look at their chances as compared to other teams, and there aren't many that look better.  You can always look at an individual team and say "chances are they don't win it all."  That's why betting "the field" doesn't pay much.

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Just now, 35thstreetswarm said:

Yes, I understand that's the way projections work.  What's your point?  Does a team has to have greater than a 50% chance to win the world series to make you feel good about their chances?  Won't find many teams that clear that bar -- ever, in any sport.

My point is that you have to look at their chances as compared to other teams, and there aren't many that look better.  You can always look at an individual team and say "chances are they don't win it all."  That's why betting "the field" doesn't pay much.

Maybe its my line of work, but I wouldn't call anything that fails at best 6 out of 7 times, "confident". 

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1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Eh, #1, the Sox have to survive this season first with a relative amount of health.  If the pitching doesn't stay healthy, this team is toast.  So as a part of this we are relying on Carlos Rodon, who has been hurt more often in his career than not.  We are relying on Crochet and Kopech who are both looking at innings performances WAY over anything they have in recent years at best, ever at worst.  We are relying on Dylan Cease who has a career high of 141 innings.  We are relying on Dallas who missed a chunk of 2020, and missed half of 2019, as well as missing big chunks of 2016 and 2017,

#2, Vegas odds are not set to determine favorites, they are determined to maximize profits. 

I mean there are reasons to like the Sox chances, but there are  LOT of things that can go very wrong, and a good chunk of them aren't that far out of reality.

It's fine to be aggressively pessimistic.  Dodgers won 302 games in three year stretch 17-19 and didn't win the WS.  I think it is unlikely that the Sox win the WS just because it's baseball and once you get to the playoffs randomness happens. That happens every year to every playoff team...so I'm not sure at any point for any future White Sox team you can say...yup...this is the one that's going to win.  Like wise I don't think you can count this team out because Rodon didn't use to pitch like this, or Kopech and Crochett are young.  This team, at this moment, is great and has a chance to be greater...you should be enjoying it.      

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Just now, michelangelosmonkey said:

It's fine to be aggressively pessimistic.  Dodgers won 302 games in three year stretch 17-19 and didn't win the WS.  I think it is unlikely that the Sox win the WS just because it's baseball and once you get to the playoffs randomness happens. That happens every year to every playoff team...so I'm not sure at any point for any future White Sox team you can say...yup...this is the one that's going to win.  Like wise I don't think you can count this team out because Rodon didn't use to pitch like this, or Kopech and Crochett are young.  This team, at this moment, is great and has a chance to be greater...you should be enjoying it.      

I am enjoying it.  But that doesn't mean I can't be willing to face reality to where this team is, and will be in a few months.  Honestly I think I am enjoying it more because I don't have expectations of this team winning a World Series to feel like they did something big this year.

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1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

I am enjoying it.  But that doesn't mean I can't be willing to face reality to where this team is, and will be in a few months.  Honestly I think I am enjoying it more because I don't have expectations of this team winning a World Series to feel like they did something big this year.

For me, I'm excited for the chance to see them in the playoffs 2 seasons in a row....but a part of me still will believe it when I see it.  I am really enjoying the team though and the ballpark experience was terrific when I went.  It truly was great to be back.

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2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I am enjoying it.  But that doesn't mean I can't be willing to face reality to where this team is, and will be in a few months.  Honestly I think I am enjoying it more because I don't have expectations of this team winning a World Series to feel like they did something big this year.

Agreed...I mean there are a lot of days where Cease or Rodon go out there and I think...this is the day where the magic ends.  But the optimist in me thinks...it happens...these two guys have always had amazing stuff, they have a new pitching coach...why not?   If Cease and Rodon turn back into pumpkins in September, obviously the team won't win.  But maybe this is the year where, like Gio in 2019, it all comes together.  

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Just now, michelangelosmonkey said:

Agreed...I mean there are a lot of days where Cease or Rodon go out there and I think...this is the day where the magic ends.  But the optimist in me thinks...it happens...these two guys have always had amazing stuff, they have a new pitching coach...why not?   If Cease and Rodon turn back into pumpkins in September, obviously the team won't win.  But maybe this is the year where, like Gio in 2019, it all comes together.  

Unlike most years, I think my biggest worry isn't talent based, but physical limitations.  We are going to ask a LOT of guys to put in a total number of innings that they have either never done before, or hasn't been able to do on a consistent basis in their lives.  When it comes to Cease, Rodon, Kopech, and Crochet, we are asking guys who are conditioned to be sprinters to run the marathon this year, with no real training at going that distance.  Maybe we do get lucky there, but I don't like those odds.

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3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Unlike most years, I think my biggest worry isn't talent based, but physical limitations.  We are going to ask a LOT of guys to put in a total number of innings that they have either never done before, or hasn't been able to do on a consistent basis in their lives.  When it comes to Cease, Rodon, Kopech, and Crochet, we are asking guys who are conditioned to be sprinters to run the marathon this year, with no real training at going that distance.  Maybe we do get lucky there, but I don't like those odds.

Yes I think Calisoxfan has done a nice job arguing that.  But the other thing is...these guys have been throwing their whole lives.   Chris Sale went from 23 inning to 71 innings to a decade of 200 innings.  Rodon has had injuries but like I argued in an earlier thread...someone like Mike Minor had a career of injuries but then when he turned 30 he had a couple of 28 start/175 inning seasons/5 WAR seasons. Cease was on pace last year for a 160 innings...it was just COVID.  They are young and strong and stretched out. Kopech and Crochett are obviously different...but I'm not counting on them.  Maybe they get tired out at the end of the year but every baseball team has the same concerns.    

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55 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I mean there are reasons to like the Sox chances, but there are  LOT of things that can go very wrong, and a good chunk of them aren't that far out of reality.

There isn't a single contender you couldn't say the same exact things about, especially in the AL.

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55 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

7:1 means 6 times out of 7 they don't win.  10:1 means 9 out of 10 they don't. 

 

50 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Maybe its my line of work, but I wouldn't call anything that fails at best 6 out of 7 times, "confident". 

Well sure, but again that's the same thing for every team. There's never going to be a team in baseball that isn't going to have the field heavily favored over them to win the title.

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28 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Yes I think Calisoxfan has done a nice job arguing that.  But the other thing is...these guys have been throwing their whole lives.   Chris Sale went from 23 inning to 71 innings to a decade of 200 innings.  Rodon has had injuries but like I argued in an earlier thread...someone like Mike Minor had a career of injuries but then when he turned 30 he had a couple of 28 start/175 inning seasons/5 WAR seasons. Cease was on pace last year for a 160 innings...it was just COVID.  They are young and strong and stretched out. Kopech and Crochett are obviously different...but I'm not counting on them.  Maybe they get tired out at the end of the year but every baseball team has the same concerns.    

We are seeing pitching injuries all over baseball from guys who have achieved these kinds of things, so it isn't just them being young and "stretched out".  These guys just don't have the advantage of having actually done what they are being asked to do this year.

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