SoxBlanco

I don’t like your math here. Assuming the 100 win team has a 61.7% of winning each game and the 62 win team has a 38.3% of winning each game, the 62 win team would win the 3 game series 32.7% of the time. But it’s even lower than that because you can’t just say a team that is 100-62 will win 61.7% of their games. They did win that percentage of games in the regular season, but that was against a wide range of opponents. When playing a 62-100 team, their chances of winning an individual game has to be higher than 61.7%.

Using last year’s standings after 60 games and the new playoff format, the AL Wild Card teams would have had 31 and 30 wins and the NL Wild Card teams would have both had 31 wins. So nobody under .500 would have made it last year, but I’ll say one of the leagues has a 29-31 team make it this year.

Like I’ve said to other posts, I don’t disagree with what you and others are saying. I just don’t think it’ll make a difference as much as people think. In the scenario described above, the Yankees better win game 2 even if it was a 5 game series because it’s not likely they would win the next three games. I guess what I’m saying is that although I agree with the sentiment that a top seed shouldn’t have to play a 3 game series, I don’t think it will really make much of a difference. And I bet if we looked at the history of first round series of top seeds, we would see that it wouldn’t make much of a difference. In fact, a 3 game series might even help the top seed, as seen last year with the Dodgers.

Yes, but people are specifically complaining that a top seed could play 162 games as the best team only to lose in a three game series. Neither top seed would have been eliminated last year if it was only a 3 game series in the first round. In fact, the new format would have actually helped the top seeded Dodgers!

Ray Ray, is there any way to find out how many times the #1 seed in the AL or NL has won their first playoff series after being down 2 games to 1? If it barely happens, then what you are arguing against (which I think is a valid complaint) won’t really come into play. I feel like the top seeds usually win two of the first three games anyway. And when they don’t, they probably lose the series anyway. How many first round series involving a top seed will have an outcome that will be different if the series is 3 games as opposed to 5?

I don’t disagree with you at all, but this has me wondering how many times the top seed in the AL or NL has gone down 2-0 or 2-1 in the first round, only to come back and win the series. I’m guessing it has not happened very often.

Horrible thread.

The Dodgers were the only team in the entire NL with more than 34 wins after 60 games last year. I’m gonna guess the AL Central winner has 36 wins, and the second wild card has 34.

I was talking about Robert. I edited my post shortly after posting, but you were too quick on the reply!

I figured Robert would be hitting 7th or 8th to start the year, and I’d be fine with that.

312 runs is my guess.

No no no...he’s right. His first partial season had some posters here freaking out. He was coming off the wrist injury and didn’t have much power at all.

If the plan is to keep Madrigal down to start the year, and if Moncada is good for opening day, I’d just let Mendick start at 2B to start the year. Then after a week, you reevaluate. If Mendick is struggling, you bring up Madrigal and nobody can argue about service time manipulation. If Mendick is playing well, then that’s a good problem to have.

If somebody asked me to predict the team’s record with Madrigal starting all 60 games at 2B, I’d go with 32-28. If somebody then asked me to predict their record with García starting the first 6 games at 2B and Madrigal starting the remaining 54, I’d go with 32-28.

Yes, but you can add a guy to 60 man and then trade him, so I don’t think it’s much of a roadblock for trades.

I’ll go with 32-28. How many wins do you guys think it’ll take to snag a wild card spot? Or win the AL Central?

Good news. I trust Not Steve Cishek more than I trust ESPN, at this point.

Jason and Chuck were both confused. They thought it was a BB at first and then said something like, “Oh, actually that must be strike 3” because they saw the players walking off the field. I’m pretty confident that was a BB.

That had to be only 9 in a row then. I was only able to watch the first inning, and he walked Vaughn to end that inning. Grandal just gave the “let’s rotate” signal with his index finger (like an umpire’s home run signal) after the BB.

Did he go 4 or 5 innings?

Yeah, we have to take advantage of the 17 games before those 14.

Love that we end the season against the Cubs. If one or both are in the hunt for the playoffs, those games will be crazy.

Opening against the Twins. Nice! Friday, July 24 at home at 7:10 PM.

Dan wrote that.