SoCalChiSox

Thanks for the response. If he is from the Povich camp, and Povich is like the third piece tho then maybe he's been informed he's getting moved. I'm sorry but I'm just trying to find any sliver of hope/excitement at this point even if all the evidence is to the contrary. I know Elias is a hardass and I know JR is pushing a SP heavy deal, so theoretically BAL should be out, but I'm trying to will it/pray it into existence anyway IDGAF. I dont care what the team wants, I know what I want and I really really want it to happen.

Perhaps @Frobby or @Sports Guy can explain this to us....or maybe I'm reading too much into it, but on their board there's a cryptic post by someone called Husker Guy who people seem to think is some kind of associate/has some relationship with Cade Povich and the way I'm reading it suggests something is about to go down? If we can get some version of this package done that we've been talking about with Povich as the third piece it would be so awesome. It would mean Getz convinced JR that we've gotten a sufficient amount of SP prospects where we feel ok and it's ok to get some savages too. By contrast, if it's a trade for Burnes or whatever using Santander and Povich it will be soul crushing. Or maybe I'm reading too much into it.

This is not really a rebuild. It's like a half ass half measure where they are stuck in between a fantasy of a retool and a full on rebuild. I dont doubt JR was truly miserable with all the losing last year and he doesn't want to go thru the slog of a full on rebuild at his age. He also wants a relatively quick turnaround otherwise ticket sales will be beyond awful. After all, you have to create some hope and that whole build a 2nd place team in order to keep some acceptable level of fan interest to keep money rolling in. This is also why they can't seemingly move Robert now or else interest would truly tank. On the other hand this is not a true rebuild in the sense that you have referred to...if we were really trying to turn every asset into prospects we would sell off Robert for a kings ransom right now while his value is highest, eat a big chunk of Moncada, Eloy and Beni's money for real returns. Or at least take on a bad contract or so to buy some prospects. But we're not doing any of that. JR is trying to quickly retool while simultaneously getting the financial benefits of a rebuild. You can't have it both ways.

Why are we talking about ERA for one cherry picked month and why are we talking about ERA at all? What is this, 1955? If the argument is because he had a bad August this proves that "by the end of the season the dude was totally broken" how do you explain the xFIP of 3.11 in Sept/Oct? If all it takes to make an argument is picking one month, then i could easily argue the much better xFIP and wOBA subsequently in Sept/Oct proves that Cease "found himself" and is a Cy Young caliber guy again. I'm not claiming he "found himself" because of one month. I'm saying in the last three years he had two 4.5 WAR seasons and even in a down year he still had 3.7 WAR which is super valuable especially when he's earning pennies.

It strains the outermost boundaries of credulity to suggest an fWAR of 3.7 instead of 4.4 is "badly broken" but I'm glad you are arguing in good faith here Balta...

OMG...so basically the JR edict that he's not going to pay money for pitching in the next rebuild is true and we are artificially forced to accept SP prospect only offers. So basically it could only be ATL, CIN, CHC or LAD at this point, right? So BAL is just a stalking horse used for leverage only and Getz doesn't give a s%*# about them even if savages are offered?

BOS and NYY badly need cheap pitching and I'm not even ruling out the Dodgers because they could add to their rotation with very little cash expense and when Ohtani, Buehler, May etc all come back there isn't going to be room for their prospects. The LAD could easily offer one SP, Pages and Busch and it wouldn't affect them on the field one bit. I dont think they are out yet despite their moves, esp if Burnes isn't getting moved. And Cease isn't a luxury for ATL. He's a need. Its unlikely they beat the LAD in a series unless they put a stud on the mound every single night. Right now they can't quite do that.

We have heard that Elias is "very difficult" to work with in these trade talks. Getz unhealthy obsession with pitching probably isn't helping I agree, but if you guys are offering Ortiz or Norby as the main piece plus a couple non Top 100s, then certainly BAL has more than a little blame here.

And honestly about 95% of us here would be more than fine with that 3 person package and if that's the three any fourth piece is gravy. This is where it's going to end up, so BAL either should get on board or stop playing games. Neither BAL, CIN, ATL, NYY or BOS is likely to end up with Snell or Montgomery so Elias trying to "wait us out" is a nonsensical strategy. Cease will be in high demand even after those signings so BAL isn't exactly our only dance partner. Elias needs to s%*# or get off the pot.

I would rather have Angelos than Reinsdorf. They are both bottom tier owners but even though your POS owner is more cheap than ours (I can't believe I am saying this) at least yours has the good sense to actually objectively hire strong competent and highly qualified people and make the necessary investments in infrastructure, analytics and eggheads. Evidently, our cheap POS owner doesn't understand that you can have a payroll half our size and still very more successful than we are if you just make some decent infrastructure investments that will be pennies in a bucket in the big picture. Instead, our POS would rather hire incompetent folks who couldn't get a similar job anywhere else just so that he could use that as leverage to force them to do whatever he wants with his stupid meddling ways and dumb philosophy.

I'm saying if BAL isn't going to include a LHS there's no path for them to get Cease in this sellers market unless they literally clean out the rest of their system. Like literally clean it the f*** out. You can't protect FIVE guys and still get it done otherwise.

If they get Bradfield as like the third piece in a BAL Cease trade I can see them moving Robert next offseason as they'll have a good in house CF replacement ready if not for 25...maybe 26. Obviously the bats do not compare at all, but Getz has a massive hard on for D and athleticism.

I agree with you here....they should move Robert when his value is at its peak. He had a monster season and was healthy at the same time. There's 4 years remaining of control at cheap prices. The return will be much, much greater than Cease and I expect Cease to go for two Top 100s plus a very solid third piece.

This is a sellers market....the odds of the Sox accepting this kind of "quantity" package are zero. If BAL truly wanted to do a quantity package and protect their Top 5 guys, the sheer amount of quantity required would be so massive that it would make Elias and also the fanbase uncomfortable....like I don't mean a 4 person package, I mean like an 8 person package...maybe something like Ortiz, Norby, Beavers, Povich, Bradfield, DL Hall, AND two other guys in the 10-15 range in your system. Even then, Getz would get skewered for the lack of high end talent and it would be unclear if even that (even with Hall included) would be sufficient to save face for him.

If we get to the start of spring training and he hasn't been moved, it is only then that your theory might have some merit. The rubber hasn't met the road yet. Not even close.

I think they are gonna try first to move Santander, Hays for pitching so they can backfill the spots with the two left handed savages. Once it becomes painfully apparent that no one is going to give up even semi-quality pitching for that, Elias will need to decide whether to actually sack up or just wait till the deadline and see where things stand.

If the Red Sox in particular are desperate we could end up with an even better positional haul than BAL.

We don't know the final offers that's the problem. We know right now there is no incentive by any party to put their cards on the table, not until the last minute.

Vaughn Grissom is 1) right handed and apparently is 2) a butcher in the field. Therefore he has too many frailties to be considered a significant piece. If he's anything more than a throw in piece, a deal with Atlanta would be a disaster of biblical proportions. If ATL really wants to be the trading partner it would need to be AJSS+Waldrep+Kelenic+Grissom/Murphy JUST TO BE CONSIDERED.

I dont think we will be at that point until it's time for pitchers and catchers to report and after Snell and Montgomery sign. At that point everyone's cards will be on the table and the game playing will have to end. Deadlines force action. I do not believe our FO seriously expects 3 guys in the 35-75 range. I think they are shooting high with, as others have said, a "buy now" price and seeing if a desperate team bites. If not they are willing to continue this staredown until they get at least one Top 50, one 50-100 and a useful third piece that may not be Top 100 now but they feel may be knocking on that door at some point fairly soon. On the one hand because supply is thin and demand is high, the Sox are holding all the cards. On the other hand, the Sox have at least a 70 grade and perhaps 80 grade "step on your own dick" tool so they are quite capable of fucking this up, probably by insisting on a foolish SP heavy deal from a garbage trading partner like ATL. It remains to be seen whether the Sox losers DNA will overcome favorable market forces.

Mayo isn't happening and they seem to prefer Cowser over Hjerstad. I'm assuming because Cowser has more above avg tools and I'm sure the contact, plate discipline, defense, athleticism, high OBP appeals more to Getz than pure power. He's seemingly willing to accept 55 or even 50 power as opposed to 60 power if he's getting all that other stuff. Getz may also be afraid Hjerstad ends up at 1B. I'd be fine with either. If you can pry one of them plus Norby and Povich we are hitting three birds with one stone. If Bannister can't turn 2 of Povich, Nastrini, Eder, Bush into solid 3/4 starters to complement the ace in Schultz, then that's on him. He also has Thompson, Cannon, Mena etc waiting in the wings. They should be able to manufacture a couple decent starters from this bunch. We shouldn't have to sacrifice positional savages to get ready made studs when we have a pitching "guru".

I mean this is not an unreasonable demand at all, I'm not sure it's time to move on, tho. I think Getz first needs to wait BAL out a little bit. Push comes to shove at the edge of spring training I think BAL will/should give in. We're not asking for their top 3 prospects so Elias can declare a "win" there and save face and Norby has nowhere to play there and they still have Kjerstad plus several other OFers in the pipeline. If he thinks he can flip Santander or an existing OFer for quality cost controlled pitching he's gravely mistaken in this market. I would much rather wait Elias out as opposed to doing a deal with ATL for only pitching.

Macsandz said we asked for Cowser, Norby+something else as the third piece and BAL said no. I remember asking him why Norby and he talked in some detail about what they liked about him. I dont remember word for word what he posted but I think he said something like they see him as an athletic 2B obviously with a very solid bat and i think they loved his character too.

We've been told our FO actually prefers Norby as the 2nd piece which is strange for an FO that goes out of its way to say it prioritizes defense and its doubly strange where our top overall prospect seems headed for 3B rather than SS. I would think we would prefer a GG level SS as insurance in case that happens and if it doesn't happen you have GG 2B, but evidently not. Maybe they think Ortiz bat doesn't play at all or they are scared about age....I dunno. But I have seen people say 50/50 which would be excellent for a double plus defensive SS/2B. That he is RHH sucks but the top overall piece is LHH so it's ok. Even at 50/45 it would be fine. What are your thoughts on Connor Norby? Would he stick defensively at 2B and what is your opinion on his glove there? From your observations do you agree with his 50 hit/55 power profile?

Welcome to the forum. I think the vast majority of us here would be happy with: 1) One of Hjerstad/Cowser 2) One of Ortiz/Norby 3) Povich Unfortunately it seems your GM is being very tight fisted with prospects and our GM has a very unhealthy obsession with pitching even though the positional talent on the MLB roster for the future is more or less hot garbage aside from a very small handful of players, so it seems unlikely a deal will be done. Our FO, like it's predecessor has a Ph.D in the art of fucking up even a wet dream so I'm sure we'll be quite unhappy with whatever result comes of the Cease matter.