Look at Ray Ray Run

Since 2019, Yoan Moncada has the 12th highest fWAR in basbeall. You calling him just an "above average" player is just laughable. Moncada has played 40 fewer games than Devers in the time and generated .6 more WAR. Since then he's ahead of Bregman, DJ Lamaeheiu, Manny, Yelich, Muncy, Lindor, Albies and on an on - and in fewer games than many of them. This is the problem with you, and others who claim they're just being "honest" about Moncada. You're actually not. Being honest would be saying... I thought and am hoping he can tap into more power. I didn't see him as a sub 20 home run guy and thought for sure he was a yearly 40 doubles type player; he's got to learn to attack his pitch when he gets it with his good eye to maximize his potential. Even though he grades out as a good runner, I thought we would get some more steals out of him, at least situationally. Those are fair critcisms that don't degrade his total impact as a player and infer that he's some bust or less than expected player. Because overall, he's one of the better players in the game.

Moncada's xwOBA in 2019 was 354, his xwOBA in 2021 was 351. Moncada walks at almost twice the rate he did in 2019. His OBP was higher in 2021 than it was in 2019 despite hitting 50 points lower. Moncada as a hitter is much more reliable than his profile was in 2019, and the ceiling is still there. The difference between 2019 and 2021 Moncada is that in 2019, that was likely the peak output Moncada was going to get out of that approach and profile. In 2021 and 2022 his peak output is now a 300/400/450-500 guy. I don't think he's a .148 ISO guy. I think he works a lot of counts, has a good eye, and the next step in the process is to absolutely jump on a pitch in your zone - kind of how Yaz has evolved as a hitter. Moncada doesn't deserve anywhere near the ridicule from someone like you. He's a 4.5+ WAR player for years to come with a peak probably around 7 or 8 if he has some luck and a good run. You talk about Moncada as if he's some 2-3 WAR regular scraping by as a barely above average player.

Moncada squaring the ball up less in 2021 than he did in 2019 has nothing to do with bat speed. Peak EV last year was 113.8 MPH, 2019 it was 115.8. His hard hit rate was 7% lower in 2021 than it was in 2019 which likely accounts for the avg EV decline. That is in line with 9 fewer barrels. He just squared the ball up less. It happens. This ober analyzation of a Yoan Moncada spring training is laughable. I've never seen such a good player face as much absurd ridicule as Moncada in my life as a Sox fan. The hilarious thing is you consider yourself one of his fans but you're one of his most irrational critics by far.

This isn't a shot at you, but people who are "analyzing" bat speed with their eyes over the TV are not really making a point. What many people view as a slow bat is really just bad timing. I'm sure Moncada hasn't magically lost bat speed.

claim is scratched due to leg fatigue. no idea what that means

Madrigal hurt.

I would; we don't agree on this one. Bellinger hasn't been the same since the shoulder injury, and his swing just isn't the same anymore. It was always a very violent swing too and his production was already a bit erratic even when he was good because of his swing length and plane. He might find it again one day, but his spring prouduction to me is really concerning. It's similar to how I feel about Yellich - he just hasn't been the same since the knee cap injury (and back injury)

DeGrom already headed for an MRI on his shoulder. Not good.

but he was a gold glover in Japan, which I think was the point on how that level of defense translates to the big leagues. I think, in general, the japanese position player to MLB pipeline just hasn't been very good. The pitcher pipeline has been much more positive. This is the list I have since 2000: not all had the hype, obviously, but there are quite a few busts on the list. It's a hard transition. So Taguchi OF Hideki Matsui OF Kazuo Matsui IF Tadahito Iguchi IF Norihiro Nakamura IF Kenji Johjima C Akinori Iwamura IF Kosuke Fukudome OF Tsuyoshi Nishioka IF Nori Aoki OF Munenori Kawasaki IF Kensuke Tanaka OF Yoshi Tsutsugo 1B Shogo Akiyama LF

I'm not going to derail this any further, but the market at that time gave Kosuke 4 years at 48 million. That was in 2008. Average salaries are up roughly 50% since 2008. Which would Kosuke at about 4 years 72 million today; 18 million per. Seiya Suzuki is younger so he got an extra year, and he got 5 years 85 million; 17 million per. It would seem the leauge talent evaluators around baseball viewed Kosuke and Seiya as near identical players talent and projection wise.

Interesting, Kosuke also a 5 time gold glover in Japan. Honestly, I didn't realize how similar their production was at the same age until you mentioned how different they were. You gotta admit that's pretty funny.

Kosuke Fukodome Age 26: 313/401/604 Edit: And again, the best year of Matsui's career in the MLB = AJ Pollock production from 2021.

Suzuki cost a lot more than 2MM more. He actually costs 70 million dollars more. I'm not sure what I need to look up. Hideki Matsui's career high OPS+ was 137. AJ Pollock's OPS+ in 2021 was 137. Why is it silly? Fukudome's OPS at 26 years old in Japan was 1005, Suzuki's OPS at 26 in Japan was 1069. It's not silly to compare their production. As I noted, Suzuki did it a little earlier than Kosuke, but there hype and fanfare is INCREDIBLY similar at the time of signing. EDIT: Koskue OPS at 25 - 943. Suzuki OPS at 25 - 953. To say those guys aren't similar production wise in Japan is honestly just nonsense. People have a way of glowing up the most recent thing. Suzuki might be great, but his contract says the league values him about the same as they valued Kosuke when he came over.

Suzuki isn't Ohtani; it's not even worth mentioning in the same breath or sentence. Ohtani was a generational talent that everyone knew was going to be a mega star from the time he was 16-17 years old. Suzuki is a guy putting up numbers that are slightly better than Kosuke's, albeit at a younger age, and don't get me wrong they are elite numbers. It just doesn't always directly translate to MLB success and there is certainly risk there. He could be great, but I'm not going to pretend that I know one way or another.

Maybe they do trust their international scouting and their international scouting said that Suzuki isn't worth that investment? Again, the history of Japanese position players in the US is not exactly glowing. There have been far my hyped busts than there have been raging success stories like Ichiro.

Sometimes the median is a better story teller than the mean. If someone plays 70%+ of his teams games in 4 seasons and 50% in one season, it's more likely he hits the 70% number than the 50% number. Who has any idea what Seiya Suzuki is going to do? How much have you watched him play? Maybe he turns out amazing, but I'm not going to act like I know much about him or that I've seen him play a lot and know how he projects. The last Japanese outfielder with a ton of hype that the Cubs signed to a long term deal went on to be bad, and if we're being honest... the history of Japanese position players in the US isn't all that great.

That seems like one heck of a good problem to have. Pollock is so good at his grandpa age as you are implying that he opts out of a 10 million dollar deal and goes onto the market to get even more; knowing that the market isn't kind to grandpas. I'd take that 10 out of 10 times. Sox have some money freeing up next year too so they could acquire 3-4 quality utility outfielders with that freed up money.

You take away 2019, and Pollock has been right around 120 games played since 2017. Unless you think there's some huge difference between 117, 113, and 112 and 120. I'd say mine was rounding, and yours is misleading. Pollock also played 55 of 60 games in the shortened season. The past two seasons he's played 77.4% of his teams games, which times 162 = 125 games. I rounded down to 120. Also, I'm not sure what was "much better" on the RF FA market. I'd like to have Schwarber and maybe Castellanos bat, but arguing that either guy is a RF'er is like arguing Vaughn was one.

He's just a bad defensive outfielder; I'd argue terrible. The IF will need him to give blows to Tim and Yoan too - although Yoan is probably the most reliable guy not named Abreu on the roster, health-wise, which is ironic given how much flack he takes for his "injuries." The Sox still don't have a second baseman, but I can get over that with a lineup that's 8 deep.

The risk with Pollock will always be injury related, and the nagging injuries can bring down his play. Sox should have enough flexibility and depth at this point to keep him fresh and put him in good positions to succeed. As I noted though, you're pointing to BABIP as an indicator of success, but his expected numbers were in fact very good - based on his batted ball profile. Pollock is a good player. He's aged really well so far too, and the speed has held up pretty well. Could he hit a wall? Sure. He's certainly worth the gamble though.

Posted this a few pages back, but there's plenty of playing time to go around: Edited it to account for CF too; and honestly, Leury shouldn't see a single game in the OF this year. With 5 positions, you have 810 games to go around. They could easily shake out as follows: Vaughn - 120 (Hoping for more but we'll see) Abreu - 145 Pollock - 120 Sheets - 80 Eloy - 135 Engel - 40 starts - he'll get into a lot more games as a defensive replacement too so he'll likely see about 80-90 games Yas - 25 games at DH Robert - 145 games If you want to give Sheets more games because he's hitting and Vaughns not for whatever reason, then swap. There. Are. Plenty. Of. At. Bats. And this is assuming zero injuries really @Jack Parkman You get an injury to anyone of those guys, and now you're looking at almost everyone pushing 130-140 games.

jack has demoted vaughn. apprentely getting AB's against inferior competition is somehow going to fix and improve upon vaughn's struggles against elite MLB offspeed stuff from the right side.

Like the Pollock move, but this off-season as of right now is still a C at best. Hahn had to trade a mistake from last year to fill one of his holes. Those kind of wash to me. It's going to be impossible for me to move past a C knowing that Hahn spent 11 million dollars on two utility guys.

His xwOBA would have ranked him 3rd on the team last year behind Yaz and Robert. The Sox were a pretty good offense last year. His production was expected to be very good.

I'm not a huge Manaea guy either, and as I mentioned before I hate arms coming out of Oakland, but he'd undoubtedly be an upgrade for the team and I think his impact would be better than the impact Sheets may provide over say... Vaughn taking those AB's.