Look at Ray Ray Run

Just as was the case last year, this team sucks so there's tons of opportunities to be bold! Last year I called Garrett Crochet leading the AL in IP because fading the actions of Chris Getz are a quick way to look like a savant! On to this year: 1. Sam Antonacci wins the AL Rookie of the Year with a 3.5+ WAR season, despite not making the opening day roster. It's a relatively weak rookie class, and it's being headlined by pitchers who have a lot of up and down early in their careers. This is so bold, that Sam doesn't even show up on any of the lists. In fact, you can find odds on 4 OTHER White Sox players to win the award. The EV is real this spring, and this guy is about to mash. "If you play him, he will crush." 2. Grant Taylor leads the White Sox in pitching WAR. This isn't all that bold given that he is projected to for me as of today, but Taylor should be able to generate enough innings out of relief and, possibly, as a spot starter to make this an easy win. Shane Smith is a solid MLB starter, but Taylor is on another level. He had some terrible luck last year, and once we increase that sample the baseball odds should work themselves out. This is also a reflection of a very weak rotation, but Taylor will be in the 3.5-4 WAR territory so he would lead some other teams as well. 3. Murakami rips victory from the James Woods jaws of defeat down the stretch, and sets the record as baseball's new strike out king! 4. Curtis Mead outplays Miguel Vargas, partly because Miguel Vargas further solidifies himself as a pumpkin but also because Mead finds a little bit of that lost from with the broken wrist in 2023. It's a now-or-never year for Mead, who had much more promise than Vargas pre-injury. 5. The White Sox draft Justin Lebron with the #1 pick in the draft. I may add a couple as spring training nears an end, but this is what I have as of now!

Wade > Benetendi

Mead bomb

I'm not adjusting strike throwing for the environment as the minors also tend to have wider zones, so his position doesnt matter to me. I dont have any individual level customs on mcdougal. Performance valuation throughout the year is pretty flat. Does that mean I would miss a mid-season transformation? I guess, but thats a very rare event. While growth is not linear, peaks and valleys in performance are also normal. For pitchers, consistency and sustainability are keys. He had better numbers at AA but he also had his innings managed and in 10 of his 15 starts it was 3 innings or less to finish the year. I like McDougal, im just skeptical of him having success in the MLB in 2 months.

I try! I use my stuff today for larger fantasy baseball leagues/tournaments. My pitching stuff has been better than my position player side. I Anchor my position player side to some public models, and on the pitching side I have a lot more player-level customs than any of the public models would, but it's worked for me so I don't Anchor it.

Zero over indexing. I'm not just using walk rate and certainly not from 50 innings. In his minor league career, McDougal has walked 4.9 batters per nine. Additionally, 37% of the pitches McDougal threw last year were balls. In the MLB, that would rank McDougal in the bottom 10% of starters. When you take into account his high chase rate, you realize he's throwing even more balls. MLB batters will chase less, meaning you're looking at a ball rate near 39%-40% which is in league leading territory. Throwing balls doesn't necessarily mean youre bad, but more of them than not live on the edge of the zone but those with plus stuff who throw balls can still succeed. It just usually takes time and doesn't occur immediately, and they struggle getting deep into games to start their careers. Hunter Brown is a pretty good example for you to look at in context. I am absolutely higher than most public models, but I've had some pretty good success in the pitching forecasting sphere so I don't really anchor off anything else. Editing: Just to add that Brown had better zone command, but was erratic and threw a lot of pitches because of his high ball count. I don't think Tanner McDougal is going to be Hunter Brown --- who is awesome.

Another hot take. Benetti is fine, but he wouldn't be as revered and acclaimed if he didn't have a disability.

Oddly enough, here's a nice explanation as to why a team WAR range may sit 19-23 while all being 67 win teams or why, possibly, a 22 WAR team might be projected to win fewer games than a team with 20 projected WAR. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hey-fangraphs-your-math-isnt-mathing-or-is-it/

I think Colorado is right there with them certainly. Sox bullpen is a good bit better than Colorado's. Their rotations are similar in badness.

Yeah, I think Antonacci should be able to earn a spot but don't think he will. I'm surprised by the McDougal love here. I think he has a shot of being a nice big league arm, but right now he still has serious reliever risk. I have his projected walk rate per 9 in the big leagues right now near 5.25, which basically aligns with him being lucky to get out of the 4th inning of starts at the moment. Maybe he continues the progress he made last year command-wise, but it's certainly not a guarantee and I wouldn't be relying on him to be a contributing member of a MLB rotation this year! The only starter, right now, who I think has the ability to step in and show out upon promotion is Schultz, and all of that depends on how he bounces back this year health wise and stuff-wise. Oppor is probably a year away, Smith I believe could probably succeed out of the Pen right away but he has even bigger command concerns for me than McDougal. Command is the MOST important attribute for any young arm to succeed early. A lack of it leads you to 2019 and 2020 Dylan Cease. I can squint and see some positive outcomes and possibilities with some bats, but the arm cupboard is not stocked full. This is the worst rotation in baseball on paper.

Shortening lives? Properly administered and utilized drugs today certainly aren't impacting lives, health and etc to the extent they were in the 80's.

Here's a hot take. They should be allowed.

That's why he only signed for 170 million though, which made him more affordable to the Sox. Nothing about my perspective on that trade has changed since before it happened, so I won't beat a dead horse here.

Also not ignoring that Garrett was open to an extension here and the Sox have no dollars committed anywhere. It's just crazy not to get an elite prospect for Garrett Crochet.

Im more shocked so many people celebrate Getz for that move. He gave up one of the three best pitchers in baseball and if Montgomery isn't a + big leaguer it's a guaranteed loser... and I think Teel is an all-star caliber catcher but he's not a unicorn talent.

Also not sure why you think a bad bullpen is specifically accounted for. Assuming you all are using BR py, its merely (runs scored ^ 1.83) / [(runs scored ^ 1.83) + (runs allowed ^ 1.83)

Given the Sox roster churn, this simply doesnt matter YoY. Also, runs scored and allowed are also influenced by sequencing luck. It's really difficult to say this is what this team should have been. In reality, bad fundamentals, bullpen and defense will correlate to poorer performance in close games. The goal of base runs and Pythagorean is to project the majority of results, which both do better than Win % itself. That said, it doesnt mean it's a reflection of all expected results. Nor is it an automatic indicator of poor luck.

Reminds me a bit of Vaughn swing right after they made his tweaks post college 2021/2022 pre big leg kick.

Antonacci is the most exciting revelation of spring by far imo. I would give him the job over meidroth. The questions he had were all around getting to power with + EV's which he's now shown he can do. I might be getting crazy, but his path reminds me so much of Jose Ramirez with the difference being Antonacci never had the down year. Elite contact and zone rates, but questions on growing into power. We obviously know what happened when he did. Spring doesnt matter for almost anything, but for EV's it's very meaningful. 109.5 and 107.1 this spring. Also another ball at 101. It's the peak that matters though.

Wade is a pretty good hitter. He was banged up last year and really bad, but if you put him in good match ups hes consistently been 15%+ better than the league. Id take wade over tendi 10 times out of 10 for the DH slot. He's on the wrong side of 30 and last year he was so bad teams bailed.

Yeah, he shouldn't be hitting anywhere but 8th or 9th, but saw the Sox say he'd be at the top of the order.

I think ive joined the fan club. The EV's make him different for me than Chase.

Takeaways. 1. People who Getz hired and gave expanded roles and opportunities too, like him and believe in him. Very surprising! 2. The Sox still haven't expanded their department head counts. 3. Autonomy and freedom are what Getz is selling new leaders. (I'm a fan of this) resources aren't comparable to other markets. 4. Getz would compare the Sox to the Rays or Guardians. Lots of roster churn. Pretty s%*# fan experience but again, still very limited department size. 5. The proofs of concept or wins cited were someone else's 1st round pick being good, a pitcher being claimed and converted into something viable (something Sox have done a few times over last decade+), and two guys who have never played in the MLB. Anecdotal was polite.

He lacked command in college.

I have Grant Taylor leading the White Sox in pitching WAR, for whatever that is worth. I have the bullpen basically out valuing the rotation in total WAR. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see the Sox come in under my 8 projection. I think they have the worst staff in baseball, and the worst staff usually comes in around the 5-7 range in total WAR. On the positional side, I have Colson at 3.1 projected WAR, which is definitely on the high side compared to other public-facing valuations but I diminished the weights placed on his performance during his back injury which, I also think, slightly inflated his expected games played but I don't think that production was an indicator of his skill set. Coming in second was Teel at 2.6 and third was actually Acuna at 2.1 (but all of this is tied to his defense and base running as I have him with an 82 wRC+). Murakami has a wide range, but his 50th percentile outcome came in at 1.5 with an above average bat but below average defense and base running. My numbers are pretty low on Meidroth (.8) and Vargas (1.1).