Look at Ray Ray Run

It makes his skill set more volatile, and much more likely to fall off a cliff at some point, but players sustaining success at those levels isn't uncommon for the first 5-6 years of their career. It seems to be a challenge post-30 though. As for Defense, Sosa just does really dumb things that enrage a fan more. By most metrics, Sosa has been the better defender but he is a bit of a bonehead sometimes.

So being a worker who organizes to increase bargaining power and make things more even makes one a grifter... then what are business owners?

I agree with letting them play, but the cornerstone of the offense today being worth 1.5 fWAR is far from a tremendous win IMO. Also, baseball is a streaky game naturally. You really can't just cherry pick the peak periods and say that's the ability. That's the same stuff that tricked people with Vaughn. Almost everyone in the big leagues can get hot and carry teams.. Chris Shelton mania. I said at the beginning of the year that Vargas would justify himself as an everyday MLB starter. Which I think he's really close to doing but he certainly hasn't proven it yet. His xwOBA is in the 35th percentile, and he's an average (at best) fielder and base runner. He also has 831 career MLB AB's so I think we're really reaching talking about his first season. Edit: The fact that no one here would talk about Sosa the way they're talking about Vargas says a lot, given that they've been basically the same player from a value perspective despite SOsa having 100 fewer AB's.

And he's 3rd in fWAR.

Yup, the last ten to fifteen years in baseball have been incredible from a financial perspective. The exact opposite direction of other sports where the masses life the tides. The trend has been pushed to the extreme. Average veterans are basically being exponged from the game slowly. Floors are essential for maintaining product quality AND player salary growths. Owners have pulled the wool over everyone's eyes citing largest contract growth while ignoring the general pretend for the masses of players.

A salary cap would require the owners to open their book on revenues and requires a fix spend. From all analysis ive done on this impact, it would benefit the players. That said, because the union is disproportionately representing the unions biggest earners, it wouldn't surprise me if this is a battle. Generally speaking though a cap comes with a floor and it greatly helps the mid-level/avg player at the expense of a few guys not being able to push the billionaire status. Im highly skeptical ownership actually wants that though given that they're currently paying the lowest share of revenues to players among the major sports exactly because they dont have a cap.

Yeah, I didn't think a lot of people were calling the Pirates the team of the decade though.

The White Sox are 339-453 this decade so far and are 2-5 in the playoffs. The Dodgers are 511-282 this decade so far and have won two World Series and reached 3 NLCS'. Just wanted to throw those out there for fun.

You're welcome all. I did my best to reverse mush this and it's been beautiful!

Thaiss was traded for a guy that has a 566 ops. How is turning that signing into nothing a win? Slater has been terrible. We're calling guys worth about a half war over a full season of games wins now? I just feel like you've dropped your barometer so low. Tauchman has been the only plus acqusition. You're giving out A's for D work right now.

I just never understood how we could get excited about a position player group on pace for zero WAR. Last year the Sox were the only team in baseball to not have positive war. In the past twenty years only one other team had 0 or negative WAR (tigers) and the Sox are on pace to do it back to back years. It being an improvement over last year doesnt actually mean its a bright spot. Also, the idea that a lot of the negative guys are gone doesnt make it any better. They're being replaced by guys who weren't good enough to beat them out lol Edit: here's a really funny stat, the Sox 4th and 5th best FIP on their pitching staff were position players who pitched 1 inning.

Did you read the first page of the thread?

This is why I said its a waste of my time to engage with you. The above is 1000% wrong, no matter how many times you say otherwise. Also tunneling and pitch shape has existed since i was playing college baseball 20+ years ago. Tunneling has been something coaches have been discussing for decades. Now there's more data on it, but its always existed. I never called anyone dumb but I was the only one who brought and actual statistical analysis into the conversation that people only discredited with their feels which i dont like to waste much time on. Also, I chose to have kids so no sympathy required for my career but appreciate the sentiment. We all do things we dont want for our family.

I certainly wish I could have the positive outlook that some here have. Not sure how people do it, but more power to them. This is the lowest moment in this orgs 120+ year history, in my opinion. People might argue the blacksox scandal, but when we're here celebrating Edgar quero and his -.1 fWAR, idk what to say.

Pitching is a little different and Mick suffered from some arm issues and command challenges. The stuff was always there for him so seeing him rebound isnt really surprising. As a hitter, it takes a lot more than raw skills and Colson seems to be struggling with a lot.

The sources I cited in this thread are publicly available data. When I present findings here, they're not leveraging my own transformations or statistics because that would cause even more of a stir from people like you. They are referencing public metrics. The source itself is data from MY model which I have built and utilized for going on 20+ years. I've posted unique findings, comps, and analysis on this very site that were derived from the model. In fact, I've used it so long that I built it leveraging R and the Lahman package, while also working in baseballr. I don't utilize R these days and switched everything over to python about 3 years ago with some help from conversion tools. That said, I have nothing to prove to anyone here. I provide stats and data to contribute to the community and conversation and to provide a different perspective. I also can say with the utmost confidence that neither you or WestEddy have ever done anything close to my job, but I actually hate my job and I wish I did something else so I'm certainly not bragging about it. I also probably do speak a bit corporate (I'd say more consulting than corporate), given that my job is to lead global technology transformations focusing on AI implementations and DBMS/data transformations and consolidations for large global orgs and governments. I bring up my background in these spaces to establish context. Nothing more. I commented it's exhausting to have this dialogue because people online will never change their mind. The internet is not a place to discuss things for which you are an expert. Please tell me more about how I was talking out of my ass though, I'm very interested. And on that note, I am officially retiring from this conversation as I should have done pages ago.

I'll say this; this thread has reminded me how exhausting and pointless it is to participate in in-depth conversations about advanced analytics, modeling and ML... especially in baseball and athletic circles.

Avg WAR for the 3rd overall pick is 11.5 Rodon is at 21 and still cruising. Development isnt linear and a fans unreal expectations for the 3rd pick in a draft doesnt mean that's how outcomes should be judged.

Rick Hahn was terrible at his job. The White Sox were very good at developing pitching while he was employed by the White Sox. Both statements are true.

FIP is a better predictor of future success than ERA, is more stable, and is a better reflection of pitcher talent.

Since 2021, Dylan Cease is tied for fourth in baseball in fWAR. But I guess he's not an ace. A lot of odd opinions on Sox talk.

Yes I think pitch labs and biomechanics are overrated relative to their outcomes as they tend to prioritize one thing, and that's stuff maximization which has correlated directly to limited availability which degrades the gains. It doesn't mean i think there's zero value there, I just feel this organization was better off allocating and prioritizing other avenues first. Maybe they are! And while I think theres still gains to be had in the space, I believe its in the volume logic the Dodgers have deployed but that requires a budget the Sox aren't working within. I also think that's not the best path forward for the game and it's not considering the impact on career duration and game flow.

I was giving you the benefit of the doubt that you didn't actually believe the dumb ass comparison you made was in anyway valid and relevant. The White Sox are in the bottom 5 in baseball in the same review but for hitters over the same 20 year period. I think they are likely bottom three after the past year added but haven't looked so will give them bottom 5 as they were last year through the same period.

I'm not going to waste my time on you gaslighting me with nonsense. You know it's a laughable comp. For the third time, the White Sox would have the best rotation in baseball TODAY if they kept their guys. How you all have talked yourselves into believing the Sox needed to overhaul pitching development first I'll never understand.

Everyone i named has been effective AFTER the Sox won the World Series. I dont know why people refuse to acknowledge that the Sox have been very successful at developing pitching, but it is what it is.