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Look at Ray Ray Run

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Everything posted by Look at Ray Ray Run

  1. Sox gonna start batting their pitcher instead of DH and we'll hear how they're out of the box thinkers.
  2. It's not out of the box to play your best defender at a less valuable position. Just like Getz wasn't actually right about acuna being a switch hitter.
  3. You think a kid who had played 12 games of 3rd base in his life, and every other game at SS, doesn't want to start everyday in the big leagues at SS? I know you love to spin everything, but please show me him claiming he wants to play elsewhere? Here's an actual quote from him When asked if he enjoyed playing third more than imagined, Montgomery paused, smiled and said, “I enjoy being in the lineup.” Being a good solider, while the Sox dick him around with something he's earned 100%.
  4. Care? I haven't cared in a long time. You don't have to care. It's simply dumb, not optimal, and disrespectful to a kid whose earned his name written in dirt behind ss. As I said. No other team would do it.
  5. You play, on average, 6 games a week. 4 out of 24 is 1 out 6. Did the VPN break your calculator too?
  6. Roch is a top 5 defensive SS in baseball guaranteed? Color me skeptical. No point in going on about it. Sox do something obviously stupid, and it doesn't count or matter i guess.
  7. You don't move around elite defensive shortstops or centerfielders off their spot. And yes, 4 out of 24 games is once a week. It's absurd. No other team would do that with an elite defensive shortstop.
  8. Could you imagine KC moving Witt to third once a week, or St Louis or the Mets doing it with Lindor and Winn? Obviously not.
  9. Neither murray or acuna are better defensive shortstops than montgomery. There's only two shortstops in baseball that have graded out better than colson since he was called up last year. He's one of the best defensive players in the MLB. Not starting him at ss everyday is fing malpractice
  10. Not just good, dude is elite and the Sox keep starting him elsewhere lol.
  11. I thought I was the biggest and most consistent Colson believer in Soxdom. This guy's got him as Mickey Mantle! No one wants a silver medal, but I'm conceding gold to that!
  12. Ill say, if the Mantle and Marris comment wasnt bait, it's an all-timer.
  13. Love what Mune is doing and I always thought it was possible that the skills wouldn't deteriorate between leagues because that's how some players are - they play up to the competition. That said, I really think we're getting a little out in front of our skis here. As noted in the other thread, he's swinging and missing at nearly half the off-speed pitches he is seeing IN the zone. While "he's figuring out American pitching," hitting is a reactionary skill (which is why people can play up more than in other spots) but pitching is very strategic. Meaning, pitchers are learning about him and how to attack him. I need to see him adjust to what the league throws at him before I'm extending him for 10 years. His contact rate is literally in the 1% percentile. In the past decade, here are the players who have had a qualified season with a whiff rate of 40+%: Keston Hiura (2020), Miguel Sano (2020) , Luis Legend Robert (2020), Joey Gallo (2018), Javy Baez (2021). 2020 and the shortened season having 3 of the 5 points to how noisy the stat can be in smaller samples. Those seasons weren't all bad seasons, but it's a very high risk profile with not a lot of sustained success over a long period. Mune is at 41.7% right now. He's got to continue to get better too, which is funny to say for a guy who is mashing.
  14. Fun watching some actual big leaguers! Obviously this team still sucks, but it's fun to see Colson, Mune and the Ant Man do some work. Schultz was always going to be a stud, never a concern there. I still find it fascinating that even when things are going well, they're still making bone headed decisions like constantly playing Colson at a position that isn't short stop despite him being an elite defensive SS. Feel better about my 68 win prediction than I did a couple weeks ago where it looked like maybe that would be a pipe dream. Our positive group hiding and covering their eyes and, apparently, keyboards during tough times and then coming out of the woodwork after a couple wins is kind of sad!
  15. One interesting observation is concern was around the fastball velocity with Mune, but he's mashed fastballs. He's swinging and missing at nearly 50% of off speed pitched in the zone. Will be interesting to see how the league adjusts to that and how he adjusts back.
  16. That Sacramento park is coors light.
  17. Colson and Mune. When they hit, we roll. Love it.
  18. Its april 21st. Long way to go.
  19. Can you help me understand why it would be a good thing to trade a 26 year old who is mashing and successful? This obsession with trading for more assets has become a disease.
  20. Think the k rate is what scares scouts with Montgomery, not what he does when he hits the ball. Would like to see the swing and miss improve.
  21. His Velo was fine yesterday. He had one start where it dipped (Twins start where he got crushed), but he said no injury. Probably just a dead arm. That start going to hurt his numbers for a bit, but I'm sure he'll get it back in line. Zero doubts from me. The sinker usage is a little inflated. I have his pitch mix very similar to last year.
  22. There's a lot of terrible use of data in this thread. Anyone citing general save % is being dishonest, or naive at best. Blown saves account for pitchers who will never get the save: Example; I come in during the 7th inning and lose the lead, that's a BS. Even though I'm not the one who is closing the game. The intention of this argument was discuss the expected save % of an actual closer (not a set-up guy who is almost always in line to blow the save, but almost never in line to record one). How can we actually account for expected save % of a closer? Remove all times that the reliever entered in a hold situation because those bring down numbers, and only account for pitchers who are expected closers (50% or of their appearances come in the 9th/save opps). Last year, the average BS % for that group was 30%. If we look at the past 5 years, it goes down slightly to 28%. Meaning the average closer should be converting on around 72% of their opportunities. 66% is 1+ Standard Deviation below, so I'd certainly argue that's bad. Obviously you need to account for things beyond save %, as that is ripe for small-sample variance. Your Mason Miller example being a great one. I'd also argue we should do more work to get a true expected save % - such as build some weights that account for run-leads of the group to determine who had to be more perfect (Maybe Miller came in during 5 1 run games while someone else had 5 3 run games). Either way, Dominguez has been terrible. His FIP is over 7, AND he's not converting saves. Comparing his conversion to other relievers who don't have the save opps is absurd.
  23. Coaches are clearly telling them to not do it. Makes me sick.
  24. When Colson and Murakami hit, they win.

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