Everything posted by Look at Ray Ray Run
-
Tax day 2020
Means absolutely nothing. Players have never come close to winning a service time grevience. An arbiter can not assume intent when readiness is defined differently by every organization or talent evaluator.
-
Tax day 2020
Lol why not? Once they're called up they're not going to file a grievance. A grievance would be filed before (and they'd lose since readiness is objective and not defined) not after their debuts.
-
Jace Fry Paternity Leave
Cant tell if this is a joke or not so I'll assume it's a joke.
-
McCann Extension
Yeah, but 99% of catchers don't suddenly improve their defensive abilities at 28 years old. They are what they are at that point defensively. So much of catcher defense is positional and reactionary. Sometimes guys just don't have that ability to process a pitch and get your body in front of it or position yourself to maximize that, nor do they have the athleticism to increase their pop times. Getting rid of navarez was the best decision this team made this offseason because it opened up the door to a catcher much better suited to manage and handle a young staff. Castillo was what he was and he was here to stay through the year and the Sox were not carrying 3 catchers. I also think navarez bat is fine if he was an adequate defensive catcher (even just below average) but his bat is not good enough to make up for him being Mike piazza behind home plate. He needs to be at least 30% better than his catching peers to balance out the fact that he's more than 30% worse than the average catcher defensively. That's why he'll be a 1.5-2 WAR player. His offensive production is cancelled out by his lack of defensive prowess, and his 173 iso is not strong enough to play 1st base or DH.
-
McCann Extension
His glove receives a ball as if it was a glove from the 1920s - as if the ball was hitting a rock. The guy is trash.
-
More "Hahnspeak" on Robert/Madrigal/Collins coming up
Nothing better than when people get mad at the team for not showing some over the top level of confidence about signing major FA's this offseason after they just did exactly that and faced immense criticism for not getting it done. I may be wrong and ignorant, but I think the White Sox make some massive splashes this off season and put themselves back on the national stage. For many who call this a mid market team - rightfully so based on the past 12 years - forget that there was a time, recently, in which this team had national recognition (whether it was being the team featured in movies or pop culture) in the 1990's more than all but 3-4 teams. If this team wins and wins a lot, they will become a revenue gold mine and return to the heyday of national attention and recognition. This is as big an opportunity, if not bigger, as this team has had to catapult itself back into the upper echelon of baseball teams and market since their World Series title. They did not capitalize on that opportunity before but I'd be shocked if they don't attempt to get there with this group of talent. Only time will tell, but white sox fans should be cautiously optimistic and excited about the potential direction of this organization. They may not become the Astros but if they're even close, their profits would dwarf that of the Astros.
-
More "Hahnspeak" on Robert/Madrigal/Collins coming up
You're mistaking being a very good receiver with being one of the best defensive catchers in the game. Flowers is not one of the best defensive catchers in the game. He has slow pop times, and his lateral movement is poor. He has soft hands though.
-
The game thread
That reputation seems to follow mccann wherever he goes. Means a lot. Surprised Detroit let him walk honestly.
-
The game thread
Just to clarify stone's comment. Pitching is something kids do when they realize they cant hit, not the other way around. Pitchers are complete weirdos and some aren't even really baseball players lol Like those weirdo submarine lefties. Theres no batter/position player equivalent of that nonsense.
-
The game thread
The coolest part about yoan moncada is there are no comps for yoan moncada. Robbie was more speed first, power second and elite 2nd base defense. Now that he moved to third there really isnt a comp.
-
Reinsdorf assures Ron that Abreu will always be a White Sox
Laymans terms. 10% of his at bats have not been impacted by the escalation of his krate. His at bats is what we are evaluating.
-
Reinsdorf assures Ron that Abreu will always be a White Sox
Every player has an expected amount of at bats lost to a strike out entering a year. Let's say Jose's was expected to lose 100 of his 500 at bats to k's (20%) entering the season. Instead, he lost 110 (22%). He lost an additional 10 at bats which was 2% of his total outcomes. When worrying about resigning him and projection him, you worry about the 10 lost at bats - that is the key. The question is will he lose 10 more at bats next year? Which is another 2% of his outcomes. When discussing something like baseball statistics, and explaining their impact, speaking in terms of outcomes to the masses is the more well understood way. While you are correct that he struck out 10% more because it's vs last years strike out numbers, what a lot of people hear is 10% more of his at bats end in a strike out. Explaining in terms more well versed with the point leads to a better understanding for the majority. It's not that you are wrong, it's that based on the conversation and concern of his overall regression impacted by the krate, you didn't cite the impact on the outcomes, you did it on the individual statistic to increase the contextual impact.
-
Reinsdorf assures Ron that Abreu will always be a White Sox
I don't think he's been unlucky. There are certainly reasons his average has gone down but it's not related to his spray chart or his BABIP being unlucky. Maybe 5 points or so at most.
-
Reinsdorf assures Ron that Abreu will always be a White Sox
Baseball statistics are cited based on their outcomes/outputs. They aren't based on a percentage change of their rates. By citing it that way you are trying to misrepresent the point and change. This is actually exactly what I was talking about earlier regarding using statistics in a way that doesnt reflect the story just because it better supports your point. When I need a lesson on relative change from an internet message board I'll go ahead and retire.
-
Reinsdorf assures Ron that Abreu will always be a White Sox
Yeah, citing the increase percentage of the rate and not the outcome is just disingenuous. What matters is how much the outcome went up, which is 1%.
-
Reinsdorf assures Ron that Abreu will always be a White Sox
What does hitting the ball in the right spots mean? Do you believe that's something a hitter controls? Shifting has decreased, not increased, the past couple years. It plateued. He hits the ball the other way now more than ever.
-
Free Agency - How confident are you?
8 years for a 30 year old pitcher lol
-
Reinsdorf assures Ron that Abreu will always be a White Sox
Edit: sure, save further cluttering the thread. You wouldn't cite the percentage rate change when citing a change in outcomes. He strikes out in 1% more at bats. That is what matters.
-
Reinsdorf assures Ron that Abreu will always be a White Sox
His k rate is 1% higher this year than it was his rookie year. Not 10%.
-
Reinsdorf assures Ron that Abreu will always be a White Sox
It has nothing to do with the future, but while everyone is critical of Jose Abreu, let me remind people what an absolute steal he was for 72 million dollars over the duration of his sox career so far. If you told me 6 years ago he was gonna have 180 homers, 600 rbis and a 131 wRC+ over the next six years I'd have been more than ecstatic.
-
Reinsdorf assures Ron that Abreu will always be a White Sox
The point of WAR is to be able to compare a catcher to a 2nd baseman on an even scale encompassing all value. I am not sure why you think WAR is best used to compare vs ones positional peers.
-
Moncada's ceiling
Jack, sometimes you say things that I just can't comprehend. Saying he'll have a lot of seasons between 33-39 but never 40 makes zero sense.
-
Moncada's ceiling
And people were critical of him not running every ball out lol.
-
Reinsdorf assures Ron that Abreu will always be a White Sox
The problem with statistics is people only value the ones that support their position. I'll watch people consistently move the goal posts on things they believe in by changing the stats they view as valuable. I see this at work all the time. Someone preaches to me over and over that theyve found an area of opportunity or a deficiency. They'll present me their supporting metrics, and I'll review it. I'll rebutt with counter supported data, and they'll tell me the correlation isn't as strong or that the MOE on that output is poor. Then one week later, they'll present me another position and they'll support it with the same analytics I used to rebutt their previous proposal; now stating that output is more reliable. These are professionals of the field too so I expect nothing less from people outside the analytics world.
-
Reinsdorf assures Ron that Abreu will always be a White Sox
Range is built into both DRS and Total Zone.