Look at Ray Ray Run
Members
-
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Currently
Viewing Topic: “The 78” is alive and well for the Sox, Bears are 'advancing' Hammond development
Everything posted by Look at Ray Ray Run
-
Renteria goes on pregame anti-analytics rant
I'm not giving them too much credit, I'm just saying knowing Hahn's background he has to think that commentary was absurd. He may not have said it out loud but it's impossible for him to think any other way; unless Jerry is a brainwashing gypsy.
-
Renteria goes on pregame anti-analytics rant
The Sox arent going to throw ricky under the bus. I do think Hahn had enough with the Anderson 7th garbage and did interject which might have heightened Renterias response to this. Ricky's logic is circular. He says how can you use data if you dont give a player a chance to create new data. That's so uneducated and archaic idk what to say. If the player shows improvement and changes his data expected outcomes, then you make the change. You dont make decisions with a player who had never statistically supported the decision under the basis that he might support it one day. That's outlandish. Renteria is an over bunting block head.
-
Renteria goes on pregame anti-analytics rant
Managers mean so little I don't really care, but Hahn is far too intelligent of a human being to actually allow this block head to run the team when it matters. Ricky was good with young players and keeping people together - that has value to a young team who is losing A LOT. I understand the value of that when winning isn't the priority but if they don't shift gears when goal is to win, I'll be baffled. You can't have the background Hahn has and think that commentary isn't ludicrous.
-
Renteria goes on pregame anti-analytics rant
One idiot said that about Drake and he was beaten up in the clubhouse by his own teammate over it.
-
Renteria goes on pregame anti-analytics rant
Theres no way a business man is anti analytics.
-
Renteria goes on pregame anti-analytics rant
If you're comparing this to your business, it doesn't work. By your business sense, the White Sox are likely outstanding. Regardless of what they say, they worry about the bottom line. They're not trying to win the game of value if the value costs more than their break even point. Teams that go into the luxury tax very clearly aren't worried about maximizing profits and the bottom line when constructing their team. They take it into consideration, but there's a value to winning to them. No one can say one player pushing you over the luxury tax warrants the penalty because he gives you a better chance to win the World Series. Winning a World Series really isn't all that much more profitable than losing a 1st round wildcard game.
-
Renteria goes on pregame anti-analytics rant
Old people hate change. Especially old people who got where they were without the change and pre-change.
-
Machado do-over
Here is someone explaining better than I. https://community.fangraphs.com/on-war-its-linearity-and-efficient-free-agent-contracts/
-
WSI
This is the first Sox forum I have posted on - I guess reddit as well a few times. Censorship destroys forums. I'm a big believer in, if it's not personal information or racist/bigoted/threatening, then it's fine. Over censoring pushes people away.
-
Octavio Dotel arrested in largest organized crime bust DR history
Do tell Dotel. Luis Castillo also involved. You never know, but my money is on them laundering for him.
-
Machado do-over
Yes. This.
-
Machado do-over
As I said youre using a horribly efficient number to asses Coles contract number. A number, that if anywhere near accurate or believed by teams would be leading to much larger contracts for free agents than is currently taking place. 6 WAR players aren't betting 60/million a year salaries (even on short terms). As you scale the system up, the cost per WAR gets lower. As you scale the system down, the per WAR cost gets lower. A 3 WAR player doesn't earn 30 million on the FA market.
-
Machado do-over
No big free agent is signing for a discounted rate. Manny and Bryce didn't sign for a discount. People need to do way with that thought process. Machado wouldn't have gotten 330 million if the Yankees and dodgers were involved. The Yankees and Dodgers are two of the most analytically driven organizations in baseball. They're not overpaying someone just to acquire them. If it goes over their value of the player they'll simply move on.
-
Machado do-over
According to what? The WAR/dollar number used by fangraphs is high. Even if you to buy that number and say it is 9.5 million per WAR, you get 230ish million not 270. That number does not scale evenly below 2 WAR and above 5 WAR. If it did, trout would be signing for 80 million per year.
-
Machado do-over
People just haven't accepted the reality about these Yankees. They don't overspend just to acquire guys. I find it hard to believe that Cole is expected to generate much more than 25 WAR over the 7 years, and most teams aren't going to pay much more than 220,000,000 for 25 WAR. 25 WAR is a really reasonable forecast for Cole. People thought 300 million was the starting rate for Manny and Harper and it wasn't. Pitchers contracts have not seen the same level of inflation as position players because pitchers have an extra level of risk tied to them. I'd say Cole gets 7/220. If it's much more than that I'd be shocked and I wouldn't be interested. We'll never see another A-Rod like contract in baseball. I'm not claiming collusion but ownership very obviously wants to limit these big contract spikes beyond standard.
-
Machado do-over
I would guess he lands the biggest pitching contract ever which puts him around 7 years 220 million. I would be incredibly hesitant to give Gerrit Cole 7 years and 220 million. Pitching is aging better and he's been durable so I'd consider it, but I would not go north of 7/220 even a single penny.
-
Ivan Nova open to re-signing with the Sox
No, they're worse. Smyly and Wood have been decimated by injuries - they are a shell of their former selves. Smyly really never had a former self as he's spent the vast majority of his career injured. Smyly hasnt had a FIP under 4.5 since 2015. Chacin is not getting any younger - hes gonna be 32 years old getting destroyed in the NL. It's not exactly like his stuff has high upside either. Wacha would be out of baseball in 2 years if he comes to the AL. Wood hasn't thrown over 152 innings since 2015. While he certainly has a higher ceiling, health is really important for starters - especially a guy whose job is to eat innings at a slightly better than league average rate. I dont like Nova but you've been anti-Nova since the trade and despite him being "fine" this year (meaning he's going to be a 2-2.5 WAR starter) you still won't admit that he was a reasonable acquisition. He's been exactly what the sox hoped for I imagine. Nova has done something this year to show he can get big leaguers out in the current era at league average numbers... he has shut down good offenses by pitching. Strike outs are great - especially in the current environment - but Nova is fine and certainly better than three of the guys you listed imo. He stays healthy, goes deep into games and keeps his team in a lot of ballgames. He's not great by any means but offensive numbers are so inflated in baseball that citing a 4.5-4.8 ERA from a back end starter isnt a bad thing at all.
-
Ivan Nova open to re-signing with the Sox
Also, why would Cease be on an innings limit? He went 120 two years ago and should be 150+ this year. Next year should be 190+.
-
Ivan Nova open to re-signing with the Sox
Wacha, smyly and chacin are all worse than Nova. Wood is also likely worse. I have no idea why youd want a guy like Smyly over Nova.
-
Former Sox updates (Avi, etc)
Sale done for the year. Hate to see that. Hope he recovers 100%.
-
Fernando Tatis Jr. thread
Those herniated discs were likely caused by swinging, not diving.
-
Fernando Tatis Jr. thread
He's out for the year with a back injury and you dont think it's potentially serious? Why would tatis play winter ball as a big leaguer? Then you just admitted paddack was always being shut down for innings limit so how does it have anything to do with a draft pick?
-
Fernando Tatis Jr. thread
Amazing that someone liked this post. Pretty embarrassing honestly. Hes a 20 year old kid making a living playing baseball and you want him to get badly hurt because your favorite team traded him. Pretty terrible thing to wish on an athlete.
-
Fernando Tatis Jr. thread
Lol where do you come up with this stuff? Tatis is hurt. Back injuries are about as serious as it gets. It will destroy your career if you're not extra cautious. That writer is a moron. Paddack is 30 innings over his career high and only has about 30 left before he was/is being shut down. He hasnt been shut down and I am not sure where you saw that. Kinsler is bad.
-
8/16 Games
I honestly have no idea how keith law could watch this and watch at bats from early in the season and not see a swing/load adjustment.