South Side Hit Men

Matt Spiegel had a good segment Hour 3 today (should be up to listen online shortly) worth a listen regarding both the DH/Playoff "negotiations" and the what very well have been a letter drafted by Rob Manfred's office signed by the Arizona mayors, the same mayors who are hosting indoor NBA and NHL games with fans. The NBA, NHL and NFL sought to maximize games played, regardless of fan attendance. MLB for a second straight season is attempting to minimize games played, except of course for playoff games where they keep nearly every penny and players are paid a pittance. The NBA, NHL and NFL implements rule and roster changes to enhance fan enjoyment and protect player safety. MLB owners prefer putting a weaker product on the field (pitchers hitting) which makes for a weaker product and also exposes highly paid pitchers to injury when the bat and run the bases. Ode to MLB and those who are running it into the ground.

Yes, and I'm pointing out why the Sox have had one window where they were consistently competitive, whereas the Cardinals are typically competitive year in and out, despite similar payrolls. Chicago White Sox Average Drafted fWAR (Total fWAR drafted / # of GM seasons) 1971-1985 (Roland Hemond): 12.9 1986 (Hawk Harrelson): 2.2 1987-1990 (Larry Himes): 63.4 1991-2000 (Ron Schueler): 13.3 2001-2012 (Kenny Williams): 15.6 2013-2020 (Rick Hahn): Drafted 15 total fWAR over first four drafts (2013-2016). Saint Louis Cardinals Average Drafted fWAR (Total fWAR drafted / # of GM seasons) 1985-1994 Dal Maxvill 22.5 1995-2007 Walt Jocketty 33.5 2008-2012 John Mozeliak 23.4 (Same cutoff as Hahn - John drafted 49.4 total fWAR and counting (2013-2016). Between the Cubans and improvements since Hahn's revamp of the scouting the past few seasons, there is reason for optimism the White Sox can compete consistently. They still need to improve with developing catchers / position players. I'm hopeful Katz will pay significant dividends on the pitching side. Giolito is the primary success story the past decade, and he had to reach outside of the organization to do so.

It was the best of times It was the worst of times Thanks for the good memories Gordon!

The Bottom Line is Jerry really doesn't give a rats ass if there is a season or not in 2021, 2022, 2023 or beyond. If the White Sox "multi championship window" closes without a single game being played, Jerry does not care, and will not risk a single penny to make it happen. He and his fellow owners rather have no baseball (COVID and the CBA) than have baseball not strictly on their terms. He was perfectly fine cancelling 1994, and if Sonia Sotomayor didn't b****slap the owners in 1995, there may have been multiple additional cancelled seasons / World Series. Matt Spiegel stated the rumored date for allowing partial fan capacity into Chicago Stadiums is August 1st. Jerry Reinsdorf and Tom Rickets, and most other owners want zero baseball before then. They also don't care about the integrity of the season, which is why they continue to pimp a farcical 16 team playoffs and a 60 game regular season, when an 100-120 game season would have worked the same last year, and a 162 game season would work in 2021.

Not to mention the Phoenix Suns, offering single, partial or full season tickets for games going on right now. Indoor games with fans = Safe Outdoor games with or without fans = Unsafe

Bud Selig tops the world in terms of Steroid liars. "I never even heard about them [steroids] until 1998 or 1999. I ran a team and nobody was closer to their players and I never heard any comment from them. It wasn't until 1998 or '99 that I heard the discussion."

Himes / Goldis had excellent drafts. Of course Reinsdorf shittcanned them ASAP. The other years? It’s been mostly bad. https://mlbdraftanalyzer.wordpress.com/white-sox/

All inputs are known, disclosed and quantifiable for bWAR (Baseball Reference), fWAR (Fan Graphs) or WARP (Baseball Prospectus). There are no judgments used, no non quantifiable components. Also, trades are based on projected WAR, which are predictions based on prior stats. Teams have their own even more metrics and data they use to predict future player production. Typically, the 50th percentile projections are published for the public WAR projections, but there is a wide range of possible outcomes. Teams differ on whether a player will out-perform or under-perform projected WAR.

You forgot Cali Sox flipping his one inch long middle finger avatar in this montage.

Not complaining or trying to attack you. All I said was you were cherry picking a few weaknesses but overall the White Sox still have a ways to go to catch the Astros 2017 team. The reason I am stating they are a super team is the fact they won 107, 103 and 101 games the past three full seasons, and appeared in four straight league championship series. Consider the White Sox have never won 101 games in their entire history, and won two pennants in the past century. How rare is this accomplishment? MLB Teams with 3 Consecutive 100 Win Seasons (1901-2020) 2017-2019 Houston Astros (COVID snuffed out a chance at a four peat) 2002-2004 New York Yankees 1997-1999 Atlanta Braves 1969-1971 Baltimore Orioles (Expansion) 1942-1944 Saint Louis Cardinals (World War II) 1929-1931 Philadelphia Athletics MLB Teams with 4 or More Consecutive League Championship Appearances (1969-2020) 2017-2020 Houston Astros (1 World Series Championship, 1 AL Pennant) 2011-2014 Saint Louis Cardinals (1 World Series, 1 Pennant) 1998-2001 New York Yankees (3 World Series Championships, 1 AL Pennant) 1991-1999 Atlanta Braves (1 World Series, 3 NL Pennants) (1994 cancelled - thank you Jerry) 1971-1975 Oakland Athletics (3 World Series Championships) Note: The NY Giants (1921-1924) and NY Yankees (1936-1939; 1949-1953; 1955-1958 and 1960-1964) the two teams who reached four + consecutive WS pre LCS era. I'd call Houston's reaching both lists the result of being a Super Team.

The Pirates have won 77 more games than the White Sox since Rick Hahn was promoted to GM. However, the Sox should have the upper-hand the next 3-5 seasons. Long term, Pittsburgh won more World Series than the Sox (2-1) during my lifetime. Both teams are in desperate need of new ownership. At least Pittsburgh has two other well run professional teams to support.

What’s garbage is trash fact you can’t realize the fact the Astros were far more talented heading into the season, came into the season with far more depth to fill any holes at their disposal, and were willing to pick up players like a Verlander with $28M salaries to be a legitimate WS contender for years to come. The Dodgers are run the same way, the Padres and Mets are making efforts to compete at that level. They weren’t dumpster diving for one year rentals (Parrot, Eaton, Mazara), clipping coupons, and trading international bonus money to dump a few hundred thousand in player salary. There is ZERO possibility a Reinsdorf owned team would ever pick up an Ace option with a contract like Verlander’s. The entire world knows it, whether or not you choose to accept it.

Talk about cherry picking. Houston Astros 2017 fWAR https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/astros/stats?season=2017 Lineup fWAR (33.8): Altuve 7.6; Correa 5.1; Springer 4.5; Gonzalez 4.0; Bregman 3.5; Reddick 3.4; McCann 2.6; Gurriel 1.7; Marisnick 1.4 SP fWAR (12.2): Morton 3.1; Peacock 2.9; McCullers Jr. 2.8; Keuchel 2.3; McHugh 1.1 (Verlander 1.0 not counted) Chicago White Sox 2021 projected fWAR https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=fangraphsdc&team=4&lg=all&players= Lineup fWAR (23.1): Grandal 4.2; Robert 3.5; Moncada 3.5; Jimenez 3.3; Anderson 2.6; Madrigal 2.4; Abreu 1.8; Eaton 1.5; Collins 0.3 SP fWAR (12.5): Giolito 4.2; Lynn 3.0; Keuchel 2.6; Cease 1.5; Kopech 1.2 Will some players exceed their projections? Likely, though some will also fall short. Astros staff bolstered by Verlander, a Cy Young pitcher. Don't see the White Sox ever swimming in those waters under current ownership, which is why realistic current speculation of a final piece revolves around 40 year old soft tosser who pitched for Tony decades ago, and the key 2021 acquisition after Hahn proclaimed "our team is on the floor" is a one year rental of a #2 SP. Hahn's playing with one man short Hoosers analogy is apt, at least when expectations go beyond possibly winning an extremely weak division and actually contending for a World Series. There is a reason all seven Central playoff teams were b****slapped in Round 1 last season upon facing legitimate MLB teams. let alone super teams like the 2017 Astros. Note - Updated total fWAR Lineup total for Astros.

Where is the money going to come from? Would you sign him and let Lucas and or Anderson walk? If Lynn is "super solid", or even just solid, he will get a significant bump in salary ($15M +,) at age 35. May also take 2-3 years as well. if Keuchel doesn't vest for 2023 (needs to reach 160 IP each of the next two seasons), it might work. I'm hoping Keuchel is down several weeks at some point to avoid vesting. If Keuchel vests, the Sox are near $60M in 2023 for mid 30s plus Grandal, Keuchel and Lynn alone, nearly half the current payroll. And the core (Eloy, Tim, Lucas. Luis, Yoan), the reason the team is actually considered a contender at this point, will be paid much more. The math doesn't work, just like the math never made sense to pursue Machado, Springer, Bauer, etc.. Unless there is a change in ownership (JR is 84, theoretically not immortal), or the Sox strike lightening like 16 years ago and win a WS and jack up subsequent ticket sales and payrolls (Sox were 5th in MLB 2006-2008), the Sox can't afford Lynn through 2023/24. It's the reason why I would have preferred they kept Dunning and signed a Quintana or other similarly priced FA. If they don't get Cease and/or Kopech to step up to be a #2 or #3, it's not likely they win a WS anyway.

Wainright pitched horrible on the road, was solid at Busch and against crappy Central Division teams. He will be exposed at Comiskey II, losing Molina's magic sticky juices, and by AL hitters. His K and HR rates are weak. There is a reason all teams including the Cardinals are not offering him much. Lester is a good comparison for where Wainright is at this point, and I wouldn't want him either.

See it more of a placate Tony move or move dictated by Tony, like the other two moves this off-season. Adding Wainright, Molina and or Pujols would only provide further confirmation. Lynn would have made more sense last year entering the playoffs. Hoping one of the two one year deals pans out better than Parrot/Mazara. I definitely do not want to extend Lynn unless they plan on significantly bumping payroll. They already have too much $ commited to mid 30s + players the next two years (Grandal, Keuchel), and the focus should be locking up Lucas and Tim.

Bought on the Sabra Shopping Network.

Perhaps Tony will speak to non White Sox paid/controlled media at least once before he retires. The White Sox announced in November Tony would be available after the Winter Meetings (like every other GM and Manager), once his latest criminal proceedings and convictions were adjudicated. That hasn't been the case now five weeks and counting, I expect MLB and the Chicago White Sox to continue to use that to their advantage, indefinitely/permanently if need be. I'd be perfectly fine with Tony continuing to collect managerial wins while staying at home in Arizona for a portion or even the entire season or his entire contract, as he did a decade ago collecting MLB wins while staying home with the shingles. Cairo can run the show, Renteria is also under contract, perhaps he can be recalled as needed. Boylen is also under contract, in times of "biblical losses" everything must be on the table. In times like these, we give, and give again. ^^^ This, assuming no additional significant deals are made. Hahn stated "our team is on the floor" during his latest press conference. Shooter hasn't spoken since his "I don't have a racist bone in my body" elite press conference performance. Payroll decreased year over before Sullivan's article. Surprised Paul didn't praise the 250% payroll increase year over year from the amount ($125M vs. $50M) Jerry actually paid to players in 2020. 2020 Opening Day Payroll $128.2M 1/23/21 White Sox Payroll $125.7M

The past few years, the Sox jumped in early on middling options (Parrot, Eaton / Mazara). Will have the same RF hole for the third straight year next year. We also need(ed) more pitching, though I believe internal options will improve / gain experience and do fine (Cease, Kopech) over the next few seasons. I disagree with the general consensus here the Sox should have pursued Machado, Springer, or God Forbid Bauer, unless the team was dedicated to permanently increasing payroll by $30M-$50M. You can't tie up 1/3-1/2 of payroll to 3-4 guys, and it's not required to win a WS. The Sox are already at risk in 2023 /2024 if Keuchel vests ($20M) + Grandal's $18M. I fear Tony will convince Jerry to extend Eaton and Lynn beyond this year, giving us four declining guys eating nearly half of payroll, and forgoing extensions to Anderson and or Giolito. Ricky Renteria wasn't responsible for having one legitimate starter last playoff. If the Sox followed their plan, and allowed him to manage one more year, Hahn would have more flexibility IMO. Based on conjecture, because that is all of us have at this point, it appears Tony is driving the off-season, picking up guys he is familiar with vs. considering a broader range of Free Agents and considering a time frame longer than 1-2 years.

Fair points, I’m in agreement. My take on the current state of the White Sox: Congratulations: Tanking trades Home of the Cuban Connection Locking in core Improvement / OK with: Scouting/drafting has improved past few seasons. Analytics is now a consideration, Sox have moved to the 21st century (hopefully Crony LaRussa hire of Dave Duncan’s son doesn’t upend that). Concerns / Regression: Consistently poor free agent signings. Jerry is all in on pushing FO aside to employ LaRussa after Renteria extended, Hahn has had zero say on any manager during his 8 years. No evidence through today JR is all in on winning with middle of the road payroll. Tony is now running the show, upending the process and structure which brought us to the very good season of last year.

I'm sure the Angels would eat some ca$h to allow LaRussa to reunite with his buddy Pujols. The Sox can also pencil in Jon Jay and Edwin Jackson for a second White Sox tour of duty, and also work a trade for Matt Carpenter. Opening Day Lineup: 2B Madrigal CF Eaton 3B Carpenter 1B Pujols C Molina LF Wong RF Jay DH Grandal SS Mendick SP Wainright Tony's getting the band back together. He's on a Mission from God! Tony with Albert at the "I Have A Scheme" Rally.

Sorry, but limiting acquisitions to La Russa's ex-players over a decade past. players he can still remember managing against, or players Tony pets dogs with is too limited of a player pool to have any expectations of "Multiple Championships".

Ladies and gentlemen, and those too young to have watched him play, Hank Aaron was and is an inner ring Hall of Famer. Still recall 714 as if it was yesterday. Rest in Peace Hammer.

There is no "dead money" currently on the books. When most people discuss player contracts, they are not counting health, pension, FICA contributions, Unemployment Tax, dental and vision benefits, etc. Cot's Contracts is the Gold Standard for publicly updated information. The 2021 White Sox 40 Man Roster payroll is: 26 Players: $125.7M Player benefits, unemployment tax, player insurance, and other payroll associated costs: $15.5M Salaries for the remaining 14 players in the Minor Leagues on the 40 Man Roster: $2.3M Most people do not include the later two when discussing team payroll. The remaining $23M is inaccurate in terms of cash outlays this season. For example, the White Sox are paying Hendricks $11.3M this season, but Wisebri's number is $18M based on the AAV. Moncada is being paid $6.8M, but Wiserbri is using $14M. It's not a good method to evaluate what the White Sox are paying in 2021. It's how Reinsdorf would spin it, overstating what the Sox are paying now, and hyping increases already factored in his spin number. Luxury tax considerations are irrelevant with the White Sox, as they will never come close to that number under JR, or sign players such as Bauer or Springer to get close enough. Soxtalk should consider one consensus source for payroll data for discussion purposes, similar to how fWAR is considered the consensus WAR projection / actual numbers here.

Matt Spiegel noted a rumored target date to allow partial fan attendance into Chicago stadiums is August 1, 2021. Im assuming Jerry will push for an July 23 or 30 MLB Opening Day and have the Sox open on the road, and an August 2 home opener if that is the case.