It absolutely could go really badly, but it had to happen and here's why. The 2012, 2018, 2020 teams got blown off the field in BCS/Playoff games. Those were good teams and they were well-coached, but there was a noticeable talent gap.
In one year, Freeman has landed a volume of 4-5 star recruits that Kelly never did. They just can't, absolutely can't afford to lose him, and the only way to guarantee that is to make him head coach. Even if he goes 40-20 in five years and then moves on, I won't think they would have won a championship with someone else.
As great a job as Luke Fickell has done at Cincinnati, he's never had to go out and get a Top 5 recruiting class, so I can't just sit here and assume he could.