Autumn Dreamin

Nailed it!

Statistically the Sox and Rangers were BOTH lucky yesterday, in that both teams made a lot of contact and got a bit more out of that contact than expected. The expected outcome of all the Sox BIP yesterday was 18.9 total bases, and they ended up with 21. A little lucky, but a .325 xBA producing 14 hits isn't wild. The gap between expected and actual total bases for TEX was actually larger (and their .211 xBA producing 11 hits was the "luckier" result) so when you simulate that game repeatedly with the same contact, Sox still win more often than not. On the other hand, the Guards "should" have won yesterday's game only 25% of the time: Putting the ball in play a lot produces a pretty wide band of outcomes, which is some of the idea behind "creating your own luck." If you make garbage contact 10 times, odds are that a couple will fall eventually, sometimes in the right order to score on. Guards also try to deny contact to the other team (which the Angels made very easy 🙄). LA put 7 fewer balls in play last night, which increases the impact of any one defensive play made by the Guardians. "Robbing" 1 in 23 chances is a bigger swing than robbing 1 in 30, and getting 30 BIP yourself creates more chances that one will fall. That's why they feel so "lucky". But it's also a pretty limited approach. It can win you close games against other poor offenses (which is admittedly a big deal in this division), but you can't just count on putting 30+ balls in play and having 10 fall every game (which is why they are bottom 3 in runs/game). If they give up more/harder contact, they struggle to keep up and they'll get shutout ~10% of the time almost by default.

Gavin Williams didn't finish the 2nd yesterday and Cantillo walked 7 today. They lose this series to almost any other team.

Smith has pitched the last two and been a bit shaky of late due to workload. Doubt he's available.

They could, I just haven't seen any indication that they would. There's a lot of reasons for them to want to head into the offseason with better vibes and a sense of momentum, dumping a red hot LRJ after not moving him at the deadline doesn't accomplish anything but saving a few million that's basically a rounding error on their payroll. If they are in on Luis going forward, figuring out the right usage mix with him and their young OFs Benge and Ewing is probably worth more than dumping the money. And after all the reported chemistry issues with the vets there, letting him gel with Soto and co. is probably worthwhile too.

Mets world thinks they will pay the buy out and then negotiate a new deal

He was also chatting it up with Chase and Colson pregame last week. And he did seem to quite noticeably get along well with Colson after he came up last year, the second half good vibes of 2025 absolutely included Luis at the time. But I don't think there's been any indication that the Mets intend to waive him, so I'm not sure why this has become such a topic of conversation. Last I saw from Stearns was that they think he can still help them next season (and Robert reportedly wants to play with Soto after injuries kept them from doing so most of this season).

Keller and other Sox scouts in attendance

Don't know how people can watch the Vargas progression and still rush to write guys off for having a down month or whatever Would AL Comeback Player of the Year be wild for him?

The flight to MIN is currently scheduled for tomorrow afternoon, so that's an extra sleep at home, no rush in the morning, and wheels down before 5pm leaving plenty of time to get your stuff to the hotel and find somewhere nice for dinner.

They have a losing home record, so maybe it doesn't matter that much? Fewest home wins in the division somehow, including KC.

Could've won in regulation if they walked JRam with first base open in the 8th

Won the game 1-0, Skenes with 6th scoreless for the first time in a while

He looked so uncomfortable. Clearly been dealing with something for a bit (no HRs since June), a little surprising how much they still play him in CF. Wonder if MIN pulls the trigger on a Walker Jenkins call up if he misses time again.

Angels solo shot puts them back up. CLE pen will have limited options after using their top 3 yesterday. Meanwhile, I think Buxton just injured himself in the Sacramento outfield. Came up short digging for a ball in the gap, looked like he could hardly move for a bit. Walked gingerly off the field and now out of the game.

Your first place Chicago White Sox get win #69 (nice) in slugfest fashion to cash out the last of the preseason over bettors. deGrom's season ERA would drop from 4.21 to 3.54 if only he never faced our Sox, who have put up 13 ER against him in 8.1 innings across two starts. Tonight was the first time deGrom allowed 8+ runs in a start since 2017 (and just the third time in his entire career). 6 is also the most runs he's allowed in a single inning in his career. This win secures a split at worst of the TEX season series, another tomorrow would seal it.

Thankfully a 2 pitch save for Taylor isn't much different from just having him warming anyway

Angels have seen 72 pitches through 2 innings

Since Hagen stranded him, I'll allow it. It was kind of annoying having PCA be the only guy with a hit off Smith.

Oh no, who would ever want another Crochet?

They fired Mike Maddux and have the best ERA in baseball since

And is technically a pre-arb guy with years of control

Nice shutdown inning from Huddy