Autumn Dreamin

This is not the best source to use, since it splits stats by player team and backend BP arms are among the most commonly traded assets at the deadline. Just at first glance, it leaves out Mason Miller's post-trade Padres tenure, where he went 2/5 on save opps. Sorry quoted wrong post

Last season's saves leader (Estevez, 42/46) had an 87.5% save rate. Chapman (32/24) was the only pitcher (out of 8) with 30+ saves at a rate above 90%. If you lower the threshold to 20 saves, Jansen (28/29) and Hader (27/28) make the cut which would be 3/21 closers. Which is fine, if that's your bar for elite, the top 10-15% probably makes sense. But by these standards, only a handful of closers are even at a "tolerable" 85%. Mason Miller, who most would call elite, I guess should be grateful he just managed to keep his spot at that rate (22/26). And the Brewers were lucky to win so much with their just barely tolerable 83% save rate from Megill (30/36)? It's an inherently high noise stat due to small sample sizes. Only ~17 guys got 30+ save opps last season, and nearly all of them will have also pitched 20+ innings in non-save situations that won't be captured by the stat at all. It's a cool stat for when guys are on wild streaks or for comparing the work of really established closers over time, but I'm not sure there's a less predictive stat than any relievers "save rate" over a five game sample. Jeff Hoffman (2/5), the guy who literally closed over Dominguez in Toronto last year, is worse if we're going by 5 SVO samples.

If the Sox manage just one more win before the month is over, it will be their highest win total entering May since 2021. March-April records: 2021: 14-11 2022: 8-12 2023: 8-21 2024: 6-24 2025: 7-23 Though to be fair to the 2022 team given the late start to the season, they were at 15-14 by May 10th.

The key for Dominguez seems to be throwing only ONE pitch per AB that surprises both himself and the batter at how far off the plate it is

Quietly 0 runs in 8 outings this month with 9 Ks and a ~1 WHIP.

Crochet still looking uncharacteristically rough. 5 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 8 K vs. Detroit. Dingler got him for a double and a HR. ERA at 7.88, might be hard to recover enough for a Cy case.

Zavala heater continues

The Sox losing challenges on defense is still a W for me, because it suggests EQ's framing is improving enough to get the call in the first place.

Agreed. No rush on promoting him in my opinion. And whatever time he has left in the minors, I'm fine with 75%+ of it being in Birmingham anyway.

Okay...? You still need your 7-10 and 15-22 HR guys to chip in with their occasional pop so it's not all left up to Mune and Colson. If they had none of those guys, you'd bemoan the lack of them.

Love EQ getting strikes for Schultz, heat check on that last one though. Probably Noah's last inning.

Another stupid fake HR, what a shame

All the more reason to enjoy it while it's happening?

God I just love him so much

You can see his confidence building in real time

The sun does not look fun out there

Such a weak swing Vargas has

107mph, 409ft

WS home broadcast followed this up by echoing my own thoughts on how much more dynamic this offense is compared to previous years. And then DePino hit a HR lol

Really like what Braden and Zavala have been doing lately.

Been a little bit since WS has had this much pop in the lineup, though the real test of Birmingham's low scoring environment awaits these guys.

Shane Smith righting the ship with 5+ scoreless, 1 H, 2 BB, 5K. He did come out for the 6th but seemed a bit fatigued and got pulled after two HBPs. Before that, the fastball was looking more in line with his past performance. Maybe he gets one more start down there, but I doubt they'll hold him back too much longer.

Maybe a regulation win if they don't get screwed out of an inning, but plenty of missed chances to score outside of that. Just can't come up empty with that top 11, though they showed some fight to make it there in the first place. Colson says he talks to Mune about approach as a lefty slugger, would love for some selectiveness to rub off on him. Tough luck loss for Sims. Rubber match might just come down to who has fresher arms available, another way in which that fake DP bailing Severino out hurts.

That's better than a bunt anyway