CaliSoxFanViaSWside

Personally I don't believe that projection/.Is it possible , yea sure it is. Probable ? I doubt it. Guess it all depends on how much he is willing to bet on himself rather than look at it pragmatically.

He used to be a stud maybe he can be again. I wouldn't be terribly opposed to finding out though depending on the contract of course.

He will be 33 in December .He probably knows there's a distinct possibility that his building value days might be over . I see him looking for the longest years deal he can get. A 1 year deal makes him 34 next year looking for a contract.

Now we're talkin' !

I'd target Donaldson Moustakas or Marwin Gonzales for 3rd whoever comes cheapest and with less years. Maybe even Jake Lamb.

Yes it is very hard to tell but even if it is another $200 M I don't see that as being crippling especially with a better TV deal while also phasing out those lesser FA's. Who knows maybe the past few years and a new Tv deal will allow the Sox a bigger payroll in the future.

Ok I am good with your non dogmatic approach and $600M sounds like a lot but $400M might be tied up in 1 player so another $200M sounds high for what I'm proposing especially since I'm not proposing anything very long term at all. I Just want a more linear path that sees us progress each year but it does include a lot of improvement for 2019 and more gradual improvement in the following 2 years.

Well I gave you my capsulized version. I laid it out more completely a few times in this thread and others. Most of the free agent contracts I see are in the 1-4 yr range and include guys like Happ, Miley, Pomeranz, Brantley Donaldson ,a relief pitcher . Nothing too exorbitant in either years or mone who can be flipped at some point to make room for the kids or kept if we end up getting a lot of progress from the kids already on the roster.Maybe you trade Abreu for a short term fix in CF and a prospect , non tender Avi. It all depends on which whale we get. If the whale swims away then hey back to Baltas plan. But I think Baltas vision is way too reliant on so many young pieces providing greatness right away . It;s like Ok lets suck again in 2019 but in 2021 we will be a superteam.

Wait you are Ok with a whale signing but don't think a Harper or Machado on a decent team won't affect the TV contract ? I think it will immensely.

I think we are. My plan is much more aggressive. More like the backwards rebuild. I want to add a lot this year to progress the timeline faster just in time for the new TV deal. Instead of filling in the gaps with free agents like most rebuilds do. I want to fill the roster with FA's and fill in the gaps with the kids when they are ready. Balta wants to land the whale like I do then expects that whale to tread water and wait for the kids with only cheap fill ins for the pitching staff..

I never said Corbin. I mentioned guys like Happ or Wade Miley and have mentioned Pomeranz also. Plus adding other 1-4 year positional player contracts. Unlike you I don't think payroll will be hampered very much by these signings. There's a lot of room on the payroll and trading Abreu and non tendering Avi gets us $20M more. Plus you're completely ignoring the need to field a decent team next year for the new TV contract and the money it could bring. It might not be a team that gets in the playoffs or challenges Cleveland but it's a process that might give us 85 wins then the next year 90 and the year after that 95+ and in that time trade the FA's we signed to make room for the kids allowing payroll to drop while still having even more money from the TV deal. If you expect Moncada and Gio and Lopez to be good for 2021 then I surely can expect some progress from them next year along with a more durable Rodon who also could be traded when the time comes.

I'm just not pulling what I've laid out as my plan out of my rear end. I'm basing it on a few things Hahn has said. He said the Sox will go outside the organization to get pitching. He also said they cannot control when FA's become available. He also has said that the preconceived notions about the Sox won't prevent them from spending or doing things that haven't seemed likely in the past and gave the Sox/Cubs trade and the Luis Robert signing as examples. There's also a new TV deal to consider when the current one expires after the 2019 season. I said in the past that waiting til 2020 and beyond for FA's limits our opportunity's severely before Hahn came out and said almost the exact same thing. My plan hinges on 2 things. 1)Getting the pitching Hahn said we would and 2) Landing a whale this year. Everything is centered around those 2 things happening. If those things happen then the ball starts gathering momentum . Add more FA's and get much better just in time to get a new TV contract that will add more revenue for 2020 and beyond. My plan also allows the kids (Dunning Cease Kopech Robert Gonzales Madrigal Rutherford Basabe Sheets etc) whoever is deemed ready, to ease into the lineup rather than be thrown into the fire and expected to be a superteam in their rookie or 2nd year. If the whale eludes us all else fails and we fall back to your plan and get another high draft pick for 2019 and potentially lose millions on the new TV deal.

OK so no superstar then . No Machado no Harper and a bunch of young pitchers who of course will all be great in 2021 surrounded by who exactly .? Eloy and the Javy Baez version of Moncada and 2 more rookie or 2nd yr. OF's ? Yes I can see it now. Youngest World Series winning team in MLB history.

Maybe not technically but Cease will probably still be classified as a rookie in 2020 depending on how many inning he gets at the end of 2019 if all goes well will be in year 2 Dunning might be a rookie or in year 2 who knows. So yes thats exactly what I said rookies and 2 year pitchers and some rookie and 2ns year OF's either in 2020 or 2021 . Way too many young guys in way too many key roles to be called a superteam by any stretch of the imagination even if Eloy Moncado Eloy Gio and Lopez all turn out good. And I suppose in your team there's also no Machado or Harper ?

I remember how excited you were in the game threads when Avi went on that HR tear for a week or 2.

I don't really understand what your getting at . Do you expect the superteams to dissolve by 2020 or 21 when if we do it your way we have a bunch of really young starting pitching and Of's with just as many question marks as Gio Lopez Moncada have now, Do we depend on a bunch of rookies or 2nd year players to dethrone all these mighty teams ?

No plan guarantees anything not even tanking another year. Hahn mentioned adding pitching right away. Let's say they add Happ and Wade Miley on 2 or 3 year deals. That gives Kopech Dunning Cease all time to arrive and get their feet wet. So now Harper/Machdo see we have a plan when we also explain to them we will try to add more before the season starts. Depending on opt out years we can add more right away and/or wait another year. Add enough to give us a shot at 85+wins depending on which whale signs with us. Donaldson might not get more than 2 or 3 years. Brantley the same. Maybe you trade Abreu for a w/e you can get for him that fills some need and non tender Avi. That will save approx. $20M .Still a FA OF gives time for Robert/Basabe /Gonzales all maybe 2 years away just to be a rookie more time to develop. Since Harper's defense in right is an issue he can be switched to 1st base if he agrees that his bat OBP etc is the main thing because we want him to get back to the type of years he had when he was 22 and 24. DH can be manned by Palka/Davidson . AFA reliever could also be added. If it ends up being Machado same type of thing . Add the pitching 1st add more FA's that give the kids time. I'm not too worried about an overpay for guys getting 1/2/3/4max possible years Then they are traded for more youth or kept if the 2019 season isn't deemed a playoff team by the trade deadline. Sure we need a lot to go right to be a playoff team in 2019 but so do a lot of teams and in 2020 we have a lot more starting pitchers arriving and know more about our minor league OF's.

I disagree, this is a whole new story with a whole new set of circumstances with a young core already here and more on the way. Eloy Moncada Giolito Lopez and all the young relievers. There's probably a reason why are seeing the Sox mentioned interested in a lot of different free agents. I'd actually love for the whale situations to be resolved early. That way if the Sox don't get one of them we just fill the pitching gaps like Hahn originally said and we tank another year, It would be disappointing but but it still part of the plan for 2020/21. They either move up the timeline or can move back to the original plan.

So you honestly think if the Sox get the whale they do nothing else to move up the timeline up with all the payroll space they have. with the new TV contract looming with the other kids still a few years away ? I know you're all worried about the kids getting blocked but sorry , deal with that when the kids actually get here. My theory is the backwards rebuild. Instead of the free agents to supplemrnt the roster you use free agency plus the young guys already up to built the roster into a contender with the one whale contract plus the smaller 1-3 possibly 4 yr deals which almost max out the payroll right away. Then depending on how the years go you either keep them or trade them. When the smaller contracts run out is when the new kids arrive while now the payroll gets lower to create room for more moves and/or pay for the older kids arbitration years. I think this way actually keeps the window open longer if you look at what happens to a team like Cleveland or the Cubs when the payroll maxes out and they are handcuffed.

Where did you get 3 teams from ?

Anytime you get into the "he will age better" territory it's dicey. A 18 months ago when we started talking about future free agents the Sox might sign in 2019 Donaldson was a very popular choice and many said the same thing about them thinking he will age better. Harper has had more injuries and that takes a toll while Machado plays almost every game and that takes its toll too. Then there are always future injuries that could be very serious in either one. It's best not to look to far ahead. Also making character a concern is not a good idea either without being fully informed . That's why we are seeing reports now that the Yankees are doing some kind of investigation of Machado's background. They want to get into his head as much as possible and do their best to find out what makes him tick. I'd say thats wise given the amount you could invest in him . Just hope we have a legit shot at either one and that they produce very well and stay healthy enough to propel the Sox into a World Series or 2.

It may drag out anyway. Boras usually does this to let teams try to free up payroll space. Like if the Cubs trade Bryant or the Yankees get rid of a contract or 2 .They may not be in the hunt now but they could be later. Some teams could still have power struggles in their front offices on whether or not to get involved. so waiting gives time to change minds. We are seeing some signs already that the market might be weak for him. Certainly the expected contract might have something to do with that with the usual high spenders either already having good rosters with little payroll space needing maybe to only reinforce their rosters rather than add a whale. There will be plenty of misinformation out there in the next 90 days and Boras has his own ways to manipulate the market with misinformation and his vision of how truly special Harper is. So to answer your question , no I don't think if it drags past the New Year its not a sign of a weaker market. It's more just Boras being Boras.

I said $400M rather than $40M AAV without the laughed at part. The market will ultimately dictate if $400M is enough even if its 10 or 12 years. Either way he beats the highest AAV in the majors right now. If everyone but the Phillies balks at $400M then it's the Phillies. If even the Phillies balk at $400M then it will be less but I still think that's the price Boras is eyeing.

You do know Machado is only 4 months older than Harper right ?

I think so. $400M might be the magic mark he's going for, He'll ask for more than that ,then settle at $400M. Of course it could be less too but Phillies might just be crazy enough to offer that, not sure the Sox are. Machado might cost less so the Sox will have to decide just how much Harper might mean in extra revenue compared to Machado and who will stay with them longer with regards to opt outs.