CaliSoxFanViaSWside

He already admitted he was looking at the data wrong thinking that all the 2 strike calls he took looking were all 3-2 counts. So yes huge error in his extrapolation on how it affected his overall totals. All of this discussion is just whitewashing the fact his main problem is still making contact. 124 swinging K's and probably double or triple 124 on how many pitches in the zone he swings and misses. When you can't hit anything in the zone besides pitches right down the pipe you have major contact issues. Even weak content is better with his speed. Crying about some poor calls that many players get called out on too won''t change the fact he still swings and misses anything that's not right down the middle.

I've waited a long time to make up my mind on Moncada's future and I'm still pretty much undecided. I am however leaning towards him ending up not being anything special. As an example I'll use Avisail Garcia. When Avi hit .330 last year he basically had a heat map where just about every part of the strike zone was hot. He's very good at hitting strikes for hits and had the speed that gave him a lot of infield hits. Yes his BABIP was extraordinarily high but the fact remains that he was making good contact with pitches in the strike zone. Even this year his heat map still suggests he hits fairly well on pitches in the zone. Avi's problem is pitch recognition and how he hits outside the zone. If Avi had Moncada's eye he'd be a superstar much like JD Martinez . Moncada ,on the other hand, his heat map shows he's only good at hitting pitches right down the middle as evidenced by the links another poster gave. Moncada's problem is he can't make contact with most pitches in the zone as evidenced by his high swing and miss rates on pitches in the zone. He has even more speed than Avi while also having the advantage of hitting lefty most of the time. He should be getting 15-20 infield hits a year. Moncada basically has a ton of holes in his swing and has shown no ability thus far to make enough contact on pitches in the zone other than mistake pitches. Any little glimpses of hope we have seen from him probably was just a string of getting more mistakes to hit. I haven't given up on him yet but his contact issues scare the hell out of me.

Don't get me wrong . A few years ago when everyone wanted Donaldson as a free agent who might fit into the Sox rebuilding plan I was one of the few who said he'd be too old and I got the typical "I think he will age well" comments back from a lot of guys here. Right now I think the rebuild is in trouble. The Sox have a bunch of stiffs in position players, Kopech got hurt and the next wave of minor league talent is still 2++ years away. Jose Rondon might be the only PP on the 40 who might need a longer look and I doubt he's anything special but worth a look and it probably will be at 3rd base. So I am not that high on getting Donaldson. It's just while payroll is low this should be the exact time the Sox should start trying to get more viable candidates to be flipped in order to get some AA/AAA talent . As you know I wanted to do that more last year too. And you also know I think I was right because only Narvaez and Palka have stepped forward this year but they both have major deficiencies on defense. Since it now appears we are another 2++ years away from competing and have a low payroll and FA prices are depressed it seems like the perfect time to take some chances on FA's. You are really good at saying want you don't want the Sox to do but not real good at saying what you think they should do. I know you and SSK2 don't see eye to eye very much but he seems to be thinking along the same lines as you on this which is wait wait wait or try to sign Machado or Harper somehow thinking they can stick around fora long time while not realizing those guys are going to want opt outs. We also have to take into consideration that the longer we wait the better the chances of Reinsdorf dying and the new CBA negatively affecting our young talent. Right now I think every one of our position players plus Rodon ( Anderson and Moncada the possible exceptions) should be traded or non tendered because they don't fit the new pushed back window or just aren't very good. Try to load up on as much major league ready young talent as you can right now be it flops like Buxton or other guys like him who can play defense but the hitting hasn't developed yet. We have too many lumbering oxen. Please put yourself out there with a plan as I have done. This is an older thread that has probably run it's course in a part of the season where no one is paying attention so I doubt your views will be attacked by anyone . Just a fan here trying my hardest to figure out what the Sox should do and I'd like other opinions.

So he's just your casual baseball fan commenting on things he has no clue about. Welcome to twitter.

I literally made the same post 9 posts before yours only without the links to the heat maps.Basically he has no hit tool and can't hit anything but mistakes and swings and misses a ton. There is just too much evidence that Yoan has a real lot of hitting areas to work on and he may not ever be a good hitter just a mistake hitter guy. If we are going to keep him and maximize his talent he needs a private hitting guru. I don't know who, but a small investment in a private tutor with a good rep isnt the worst thing you can do to maximize your investment.

I'm sorry Juan you did ok even if you got lucky.

Tale Minaya out now. Then IBB and pray for a DP

Ok Sox get a run.

Rondon homers with Avi on base with his 2nd walk. Sox lead 2-1 top of 4th.

Ok so he's K'd looking 72 times total and of that 72 , 50 were out of the zone. Now I've seen data in tweets that might say something like that pitch is called a ball 30% of the time. I think any ball that's called a strike over 50% of the time we should consider it a strike while balls called a strike under 50% of the time should be classified as a ball to get a better feel of how accurate this is. One thing we know for sure from those stats is his K's swinging are very high and that means his hit tool or eyesight or something else is wrong that prevents him from making more contact. His main problem is lack of contact with the ball . He needs to put way more balls into play however he achieves it, shorten his swing , bunt more , choke up , a different stance ,a leg kick. make him hit rocks with a broomstick, I don't care . Find something that helps him make more contact when he does swing. If you look at his hot zones it seems the only place where he gets hits is on pitches right down the middle. Good luck being a good player living off that. You have to be able to hit more than just the mistakes.

I'm not panicking I just have a different approach than you do for the rebuild. Being proactive when you have the payroll space to do so easily isn't unreasonable. Signing guys to 3 or 4 years isn't unreasonable given that's how long it might take your way to compete again while still being able to flip them.They won't block anyone. It's very simple to get rid of guys by trades, non-tendering or releasing them. Delmonico,Palka, Engel, Cordell,Avi and Leury Garcia are all 26 and 27, Sanchez is a utility guy.LaMarre is 29. Kevin Smith is 30. Jose Rondon might be the only position player on the roster to need further evaluating. The best we can hope for from this motley crew is a utility player, a DH, a 4th OF and a long shot relief pitcher in Davidson ,Chances are in 2 years none of these guys is around so a few FA's for 1-4 years aren't going to block anyone coming up. I have no idea why you keeping bringing up guys being blocked, It just doesn't happen unless you have a premier guy at a certain position. Castillo is probably gone by trade deadline 2019 but the Sox may have to play him to get anything for him meaning the one guy who earned more playing, time Omar Narvaez won't be getting the AB's he needs. Or maybe he gets traded at his all time low value in the off season since Zavala is close. Basically most of the position players are already filler with no further need of evaluation. It's time to separate the wheat from the chaff and move ahead with more reasonable chances for guys who can be flipped. Rodon and Abreu are now more likely to be traded so might as well get some more like them because no on else we have will bring back anything.

OK see you in 2022 or 2023 or 2024 or ??? with that plan. I'm sure everyone and everything will just magically come together after Jerry is dead and with a new collective bargaining agreement . Let's just keep assessing and reassessing our scrubs. Lets trade Rodon and Abreu then so we can be even worse because now they don't fit into the new window of competitiveness to create even more holes. You know the chances of getting the superstar free agents are practically nil and we won't get them without opt outs in their contracts so getting them for 5-7 year is not practical. Your thinking is a few years behind the times.

Sounds like your plan is to only go after the big fish or nothing and wait on the more kids while Moncada Lopez Gio Tim Anderson all get older and into to their arbitration years and wait for Kopech to recover. What if we do land a Harper ,Machado or Arenado should your plan change then ? Should it not change before you try to get them in order to show them you are not just waiting for kids. Minimum time on most of the other prospects is 2 more years and more likely 3 or 4 to prove themselves. People worthy of spots will always be able to get spots because it sounds to me you are happy playing the scrubs we already have. It appears like your plan is geared for 2021 and beyond that and provides no incentives for the big fish to sign except for money and the chance to play on really bad teams. Do you think Jerry will all of a sudden up the payroll to $200M in 2021 and beyond because of all the money he saved with low payrolls for 5+ years ? Jerry may be dead before your plan starts working and who knows what happens when he's gone. So no Brantley , Donaldson , Pollock unless we can get them for $50M or less and only 2 yrs max ? Oh yeah 2021/2022 is when there could be a possible strike or major changes in the collective bargaining agreement. What happens if players become free agents with less time in the majors or get arbitration quicker ? Sorry , I think you're plan is just way too passive.

I'm not assuming he would have brought anything back. I'm just saying he was an innings inner and was effective and he COULD have just as Gonzales did a year ago. Dickey has been a pretty reliable guy even into his early 40's over the last few years. From his age 35 to 42 seasons he was anywhere from 1.9 to 5,7 bWAR in all but one season. As far as no want wanting him, my research said he got a few offers. and pitched with Atlanta last year to be close to his home in Tennessee. Could be the offers came from teams he decided wouldn't be worth it. As far as I know he didn't make a retirement announcement. Who knows maybe the Sox did pursue him and he said no . I also realize since I've had this discussion many times with many people that we needed to see what guys on the roster could do. I think it's possible to do both easily especially when the prices were so depressed and there is plenty of payroll space. Not doing so just seemed illogical when looking to progress the rebuild as quickly as possible without making a mess of payroll which it certainly wouldn't have done. Maybe I just didn't think most of the guys on the roster were worthy of longer looks as much as some here did.

Ok but that's your assumption and I went with my assumption for why I though signing Moose in the off season was a good idea which is the main point. We can make it $8M if that makes you feel better but the point remains. I still think it would have been a good signing based on the return KC got for him. I just think Hahn should have signed a few more very cheap veterans that might have paid off more than Miguel Gonzales. I remember even making a few posts on seeing what RA Dickey was up to. No one signed him even though he had a 2 WAR and pitched 190 innings at age 42. 2 WAR is what we got from Reynaldo Lopez this year. Knuckleballers are great at eating innings even at his age. He probably would've given the Sox a lot more than Gonzalez did for 2018.

Based on your know;edge of the team in this post I am sure you are aware that there's no chance in hell the Sox exercise the option on Shields and he will be a FA. Since you included Shields in the 2019 rotation I'l have to assume you think the Sox resign him at a lesser rate. I'm against that many are but just was wondering if you were aware that there's no guarantee Shields will be on the 2019 Sox.

It also seemed to my eyes that he is going oppo more. I know he had a HR to left while batting lefty and a few base hits also. He's getting it slowly but surely. His batting average seems to be creeping up but as others pointed out it hasn't advanced his OPS or walks. He's learning .

I forget who said it maybe Hahn bu he described it as a "signifcant tear". Maybe healing time snd rehab for smaller tears is less ? Ptatc please ?

Everything about playing GM is presumptuous . You've done it , I've done it, Everyone does it. That's also my answer to GreenSox .Yo9u just have to assume things when contemplating how it might have turned out for the Sox . Have to assume Moustakas hits the same with the Sox as he did with the Royals and have to assume the trade also turned out similar. everybody does it. You're one the of guys who thinks the most money will get Harper or Machado but the most money wouldn't have got Moustakas ? Guess what ? He's in Milwaukee now and probably somewhere else next year too so leaving KC aint no big thang . And really is being in Chicago so far from KC that an extra 500K wouldn't mean anything ? He only went back to KC because no one wanted him with the draft pick attached and KC didn't have to give that up so probably outbid everyone else for a whole $6,5 M ,about 7.7 X higher than the Sox paid for Luis Roberts. If we want to take that to the extreme thats the equivalent of the Sox receiving of 15 AAA players the caliber of Phillips and Lopez for what they spent on Robert. But taking a chance that Moose turned into 2 AAA players for $7M and another A ball OF wasn't worth it ?

Didn't necessarily have to happen this year as I said above. You could have tried this year and if no one bites there was always next year since his player opt out didn't kick in till after year 2. If in year 2 he has another great season maybe he opts out to become a FA thereby lessening the load for whoever trades for him to only a half season. Since his contract is front loaded the Sox having him for the 1st 1.5 years takes approx. $37.5M off that $110M thereby potentially reducing it to $72.5M. More teams in the mix for year 2 which would include the off season could be expanded to include the Phillies and Braves and whoever else crops up as suitors. The built in protection against the Lisfranc injury is also a good part of the deal that protects buyers should that injury be determined to be related to the 1st one. The Yankees didn't want him because they traded for Stanton, The Red Sox were the only team that wanted him because of the greatly reduced prices on free agents and Dombrowski unwilling to bid against himself and insisting on the injury protection. I think it was a great deal done by a smart GM taking advantage of the depressed prices and may very well be the move that made them the odds on favorite to win the WS and an early pick to be favored next year too. Maybe if the Yankees had signed JD instead of trading for GS they'd be in the same position as the Red Sox and for less money.

If you picked the Bears against the spread you came out golden. Some of the hot takes sound like they had the Bears to actually win this game. The spread was what it was for good reason.

That's how I look at it .Some conservative play calling in the 2nd half led to this. Passing plays became lateral instead of vertical. Bears had a chance to seal the game with an interception and Fuller drops it like he had done all of 2017. MT looked fine in the vertical passing game until Pack threw 6 and 7 DB's out there. For a game in GB the Bears showed a lot of promise. Losing the way they did is a gut punch but they shouldn't hang their heads. Imagine when Mack gets his stamina and Smith learns the defense better.

Only the biggest Bears halftime lead in GB in 70 years.

MVP Mack Valuable player !!

So Roquan's very 1st play is a sack . I love it !