Jake

I also have a feeling the Sox won't be keeping both of these guys.

FanGraphs on Paez:

Never a ton of leverage for the college guys really. And this kid is supposed to be a high-makeup type who won't want to put the screws to people over a marginal pay gain. I think as long as the Sox don't try to lowball, shouldn't be a signability concern.

Perfect time for Sox to move is before the top of the market is resolved as long as Fairbanks is willing to play ball

FanGraphs had projected him to get 2 years, $16M. I'd do that. Downside risk is minimal, could make the team more watchable, might give you a trade chip. Sox don't have a lot of young bullpen arms to make space for.

Baty isn't exactly close to FA, but I wonder whether Getz would want to take someone with "only" 4 seasons before FA as the centerpiece of a deal for Robert.

Ponce is hard to comp too, I think. He was pretty mediocre in Japan, similar peripherals to Kay but worse results (and never pitched a full workload, not sure whether that's due to injury or what). But then he was utterly dominant in Korea, almost doubling his Japanese K rate. Talent is lower in Korea but not really "you get double the strikeouts" lower. Not to mention Japan is having a dead ball era and I don't think Korea is.

Per Japanese pitch tracking data, Kay had a 5-pitch mix last year. Four seamer, cutter, slider, sinker, changeup. The cutter and changeup are mainly used against righties, the slider mainly against lefties. Stuff+ really likes the cutter, slider, and sinker. Hitters did not hit them very well either. None of the stuff he throws generates much swing and miss. Pounds the cutter inside to righties, changeups are almost always thrown below the zone and away to righties, slider almost always thrown low and away outside the zone to lefties, sinker almost always in on the hands to lefties. 4 seamer aimed at the top of the zone or trying to snag outside strikes. The xERA suggests his good results were mostly deserved although not at a <2.00 ERA level. As you'd expect, he's better against lefties than righties. Very high groundball rate against lefties. Note that the Japanese baseball has more armside run and tends to have better rise. This is due to a mixture of better grip + larger seams, leading to higher spin rates and more seam-shifted wake. Kay doesn't rely on spin rate but he might be affected by lower seams on MLB balls. Of course, every pitcher is relying on at least one of those two things. 4-seam fastball averaged 94.4mph last year, roughly the same as when he was last pitching out of the pen in MLB.

He kept the runs from scoring in Japan but frankly the rest didn't look that great. Strikeouts not very high and although the walks certainly weren't high, it wasn't some incredibly low number either. He was only throwing two pitches out of the pen the last time he was in MLB. Not sure what he's been doing in Japan. I suppose the Sox will have him start but they are kind of paying him like a middle reliever, so maybe they see him as having a high floor as lefty reliever.

I don't have any problem with Colson projected at 2.2 WAR. Frankly, I assumed it must have been a lot lower seeing the commentary here before checking the numbers myself. If I had to take the over or under, I'd probably go under. There's just so much risk in any baseball player. I think it's a credit to ZiPS that it didn't get even more hung up on Colson's two full seasons of shoddy AAA production. I hope Colson kicks absolute ass but there's real risk with him, beyond that of a generic young hitter. He swings and misses a lot even when the going is good. I would worry about scouts catching up with him. And the bad play in AAA really did happen and the fact that there's no clear explanation about how he turned it on in MLB really makes me wonder how likely it is that he falls back into mediocrity. As for the comparison with 2025 ZiPS, worth noting that last year's projections came after Sox had already signed a few vets to help cover the corner outfield, 3B, SP, and catcher. Sox have massive holes in the corner OF right now and arguably somewhere in the 1B/DH/3B region too. Not to mention the whole pitching staff. I don't know what the Sox will do exactly, but I suspect they will add something, somewhere via free agency. That's not reflected here yet. I also find it hilarious how much ZiPS likes Sam Antonacci.

TBH, I don't think it's a great comparison. Lenyn is what I'd call "on the spectrum" for MLB defense. Maybe he's toward the bad end of that spectrum but he's an actual major league infielder. And I'm not so sure that he is that close to the bad end, particularly if he stops having s%*# for brains. And of course at the plate, they are rather different. Morel light tower power but shocking problems making contact in the zone. Lenyn has a strong contact tool (and surprising power) but an astronomical chase rate. Morel is a guy with physical problems (and gifts) while Lenyn's issues are ultimately all about decision-making on both sides of the ball.

Like I said, chances are that neither player does much but all the upside is with the Red Sox

I'm not really losing sleep over the Booser deal but there's no way to put lipstick on that pig either. Chances are that it winds up a draw but all the upside lives with the Red Sox now.

I don't think it takes a lot of mental gymnastics to observe an improvement in Vargas's play last season. As a Dodger: .201/.294./364, 81 wRC+, -0.3 WAR As a 2024 White Sox: .104/.217/.170, 17 wRC+, -1.2 WAR As a 2025 White Sox: .234/.316/.401, 101 wRC+, 1.3 WAR From April 23, 2025 until end of season: .252/.331/.438, 114 wRC+, 1.9 WAR And underlying Statcast data has always supported the on-field results (both when it was bad and when it was good). Wouldn't surprise me if numerical projection systems liked Vargas at the time of acquisition because he put up great numbers in AAA and his MLB numbers to that point weren't horrible. The Soxtalk projections were not nearly so optimistic