Jake

Ponce is hard to comp too, I think. He was pretty mediocre in Japan, similar peripherals to Kay but worse results (and never pitched a full workload, not sure whether that's due to injury or what). But then he was utterly dominant in Korea, almost doubling his Japanese K rate. Talent is lower in Korea but not really "you get double the strikeouts" lower. Not to mention Japan is having a dead ball era and I don't think Korea is.

Per Japanese pitch tracking data, Kay had a 5-pitch mix last year. Four seamer, cutter, slider, sinker, changeup. The cutter and changeup are mainly used against righties, the slider mainly against lefties. Stuff+ really likes the cutter, slider, and sinker. Hitters did not hit them very well either. None of the stuff he throws generates much swing and miss. Pounds the cutter inside to righties, changeups are almost always thrown below the zone and away to righties, slider almost always thrown low and away outside the zone to lefties, sinker almost always in on the hands to lefties. 4 seamer aimed at the top of the zone or trying to snag outside strikes. The xERA suggests his good results were mostly deserved although not at a <2.00 ERA level. As you'd expect, he's better against lefties than righties. Very high groundball rate against lefties. Note that the Japanese baseball has more armside run and tends to have better rise. This is due to a mixture of better grip + larger seams, leading to higher spin rates and more seam-shifted wake. Kay doesn't rely on spin rate but he might be affected by lower seams on MLB balls. Of course, every pitcher is relying on at least one of those two things. 4-seam fastball averaged 94.4mph last year, roughly the same as when he was last pitching out of the pen in MLB.

He kept the runs from scoring in Japan but frankly the rest didn't look that great. Strikeouts not very high and although the walks certainly weren't high, it wasn't some incredibly low number either. He was only throwing two pitches out of the pen the last time he was in MLB. Not sure what he's been doing in Japan. I suppose the Sox will have him start but they are kind of paying him like a middle reliever, so maybe they see him as having a high floor as lefty reliever.

I don't have any problem with Colson projected at 2.2 WAR. Frankly, I assumed it must have been a lot lower seeing the commentary here before checking the numbers myself. If I had to take the over or under, I'd probably go under. There's just so much risk in any baseball player. I think it's a credit to ZiPS that it didn't get even more hung up on Colson's two full seasons of shoddy AAA production. I hope Colson kicks absolute ass but there's real risk with him, beyond that of a generic young hitter. He swings and misses a lot even when the going is good. I would worry about scouts catching up with him. And the bad play in AAA really did happen and the fact that there's no clear explanation about how he turned it on in MLB really makes me wonder how likely it is that he falls back into mediocrity. As for the comparison with 2025 ZiPS, worth noting that last year's projections came after Sox had already signed a few vets to help cover the corner outfield, 3B, SP, and catcher. Sox have massive holes in the corner OF right now and arguably somewhere in the 1B/DH/3B region too. Not to mention the whole pitching staff. I don't know what the Sox will do exactly, but I suspect they will add something, somewhere via free agency. That's not reflected here yet. I also find it hilarious how much ZiPS likes Sam Antonacci.

TBH, I don't think it's a great comparison. Lenyn is what I'd call "on the spectrum" for MLB defense. Maybe he's toward the bad end of that spectrum but he's an actual major league infielder. And I'm not so sure that he is that close to the bad end, particularly if he stops having s%*# for brains. And of course at the plate, they are rather different. Morel light tower power but shocking problems making contact in the zone. Lenyn has a strong contact tool (and surprising power) but an astronomical chase rate. Morel is a guy with physical problems (and gifts) while Lenyn's issues are ultimately all about decision-making on both sides of the ball.

Like I said, chances are that neither player does much but all the upside is with the Red Sox

I'm not really losing sleep over the Booser deal but there's no way to put lipstick on that pig either. Chances are that it winds up a draw but all the upside lives with the Red Sox now.

I don't think it takes a lot of mental gymnastics to observe an improvement in Vargas's play last season. As a Dodger: .201/.294./364, 81 wRC+, -0.3 WAR As a 2024 White Sox: .104/.217/.170, 17 wRC+, -1.2 WAR As a 2025 White Sox: .234/.316/.401, 101 wRC+, 1.3 WAR From April 23, 2025 until end of season: .252/.331/.438, 114 wRC+, 1.9 WAR And underlying Statcast data has always supported the on-field results (both when it was bad and when it was good). Wouldn't surprise me if numerical projection systems liked Vargas at the time of acquisition because he put up great numbers in AAA and his MLB numbers to that point weren't horrible. The Soxtalk projections were not nearly so optimistic

I don't see the appeal in Hill but they're hardly paying him above the minimum and the guy can really catch the ball. Just gives a guy on the bench that probably won't bother anybody too much.

Unless Tauchman's legs are really messed up and he can't play next year, I don't understand this at all. Best RF play we've had in quite a long time, even despite the time on the IL. And the cost is basically nil in the scheme of things.

I'd be surprised if Getz traded Vargas. Miguel is really a Getz type of player in my view and his big improvement is a feather in the cap for White Sox player development. Mead is an interesting piece but I wouldn't want to just hand him a starting spot at this point.

Hard to really say someone's spending tendencies in the NBA since it's a capped league. There's some stuff on the fringe (how nice is the team plane, etc.) and every now and then a team is good enough that owner has to make tough decisions about staying above the apron. But the aggressive moves after Mat Ishbia took over the Suns just looked like management being aggressive and not ownership shelling out money. Had it worked out better, we might have learned about Ishbia's tolerance for paying cap penalties.

TBH, data on player aging is SO SAD. The data suffers from some selection bias so nothing is truly set in stone, but generally points to players being in their physical prime the moment they reach the majors if that time is from age 19 to 24 (if later, they're already past it). And not many skills tend to improve into the late 20s. Safest argument would be that overall offensive peak is around 26 to 27. That said, for players who have obviously cleared the bar for MLB talent (like Luis Robert), there's a decent argument for expecting the peak to come a bit later, like age 29ish. Lots of interesting statistical arguments about this kind of thing. I've also seen some evidence for contact hitters having the worst aging process (i.e., guys without much power and who do not have a notable amount of walks). OBP-oriented guys age the best. And the early analysts of player aging got massively fooled by steroid abusers, so there was some common wisdom about player aging that was never going to survive the drug testing era.

Well I can't speak on what the White Sox's goals are as they are strange and inscrutable to me. My goal is to see as many wins as I can. If there were any kids to play in the outfield I'd probably look at it a little bit differently. Pre-arb outfielders in the organization playing at AAA or higher are basically: Brooks Baldwin, Derek Hill (~30 years old), Dru Baker, Zach Deloach, Caden Connor. Brooks is really the only one who has arguably earned a look in MLB. I guess Connor would be next up but he's got a lot to prove in AAA. If Braden Montgomery breaks out as we hope, I don't think LouBob will be holding him back. Maybe I'm forgetting somebody important.