QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Aug 23, 2013 -> 01:07 PM)
The last two elections, the Republicans trotted out complete jokers. Yes, the republicans alienated just about every non white you can think of. Look at an RNC event, it's a sea of white people. Hispanics and blacks for the matter could easily identify themselves as conservative, since they are mostly a religious bunch. Republicans have to get these hateful bigoted assholes out of their party and welcome whomever with open hands.
I will tell you about an incident that occurred in my life. If you don't know, I'm black. My Dad is an Republican. He ran for office down in my hometown in central Illinois. One day, I went to a republican breakfast social with my dad. When we walked in, everyone pretty much stared us down like we didn't belong there or something. Needless to say, it was super awkward. They were cordial but you could get the sense that they were thinking that this was the white people's club and that some negro trash had just crashed the party.
Granted, that was just one example but this type of behavior is probably more common than you would like to believe. Democrats just pander to everyone and that's why they keep winning.
I pretty much understand what you mean, but isn't that what we ask of democratic government?
QUOTE (DukeNukeEm @ Aug 23, 2013 -> 01:15 PM)
His problem with the Civil Rights Act was about government dictating the use of private property, which is a slippery slope. And I know the traditional way of discrediting anyone who isn't head-over-heels for the Federal Government is just to call them "bats*** crazy", but you're going to have to do more than that. You really think after all the damage Obama has done to the USA, the way people feel tricked and misled by him, that they're really going to keep falling for the same s*** from Democrats?
And of course there's a lot of people who want to old times back again. All those people losing their homes, out of work, scared of terrorists killing them and scared of their government (WHO YOU HAVE TO BE BATs*** CRAZY NOT TO LOVE RIGHT?) spying on them; they see it as an innovation of modern times and whether that judgment is true or not the one constant over time in this country has been the rampant growth of government.
That feeling of betrayal/rampant destruction/etc is far less widespread than you think it is. Obama is far more well-liked than his predecessor, for instance. You are basically describing the way a much larger portion of people felt about GWB
QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 23, 2013 -> 01:25 PM)
Leaving personalities and names aside, because it is way too early to see who will run and how they will do in the primaries... here are some interesting mechanical dynamics that will be a big part of things in 2016 that we CAN look at now...
1. The SCOTUS decision on the Voting Rights Act, and its effect on voter ID laws... depending on how much suppression the GOP in certain states gets away with, that could take a very real chunk out of the Democrat's chances. In their corner is the fact that most of the places this is going on are not going to go for a Dem Prez candidate anyway, most likely. But it WILL have an effect on House and Senate races, and people keep forgetting that whatever you think of Obama's Presidency, it is clearly Congress (both parties) that has more thoroughly f***ed us over than the President has. So how the following investigations and court cases on voter ID laws go will have some importance.
2. Part of the reason Obama won more thoroughly than many projected in 2013 is their very, very solid and even innovative technology usage was in their ground game strategy. Those tools were huge. Now, any Dem candidate will probably have similar resources at their disposal, which favors them. But, you can bet your ass the GOP will be looking to do something similar, and the gap will close to some extent. So keep an eye on GOP efforts in this arena (statistical analysis, etc.) to see how they may fare.
3. Where will the economy stand in 2016? No other issue will matter more. Ironically, if the economy is going well, it will matter a little less, but will still be key. So watch the UE numbers, markets, housing market, etc.
4. Obamacare will finally be in full, deep effect by that time - and like it or not, the Dems need to live with that mixed (at best) bag around their necks. So it will be key to see how the health care world for the average Joe/Mary looks at that time.
5. The Republicans continue to wrestle with an internal schism - the establishment GOP is being pulled apart from not just one, but two directions: The Tea Partiers (aka "I'm more conservative! No, I'm more conservative!" which is what it has become), and then the Libertarian types. Both groups have only been getting frothier as time goes on, which will make it very difficult for the party to come up with any sort of cohesive set of policy thoughts. This could make things very messy for them going into 2016.
6. Finally, the 2014 midterms - cannot ignore this, it is a referendum on not only ObamaCo, but the current and historically useless Congress. This will set a tone.
So, lots to discuss... the individual people running isn't even among my top 6 things worth watching right now.
SS has covered my first thing with the bolded, which is that political scientists were right on the money and it would have been a huge surprise if Romney had won that election. What we know about polling and statistics made it fairly obvious that he would probably win and win comfortably.
Also, the Obama people have not been eager to share much from their campaign infrastructure with the party or other candidates. They have cited a couple reasons thus far:
1. He wants to use these things as a way to be a potent political voice after he leaves office.
2. They claim that these things are not as simple as a mailing list - they are tailored to BO and specific interests of people and their interest in BO rather than being liberals/Dems in general. The current stance has been that this is not stuff one can simply give to another candidate or group because it was particular to a particular time, place, and person.
QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 23, 2013 -> 01:58 PM)
She is the female version of Dole on TV. Just mean and b****y if that's the right word. I predict she'll be the hot early leader, she'll get the magazine covers and the long stories, "It's Hillary Time" but she doesn't stand a chance.
UNLESS she just doesn't campaign. The less she opens her mouth, the more she could just win on her name. As a CONCEPT, Hillary, Clinton II, is a great idea. The reality is she flat out doesn't pass the popularity TV test.
And cmon now. Don't tell me you don't believe in superficiality regarding candidates. Obama is handsome, knows exactly how to play the camera. They've always said guys like Humphrey, Dole, etc., who looked horrible on TV didn't stand a chance. I don't think Hillary is capable of doing all those campaign speeches again and appearances without exploding. She is a strong woman. I love that. But she also comes across as a big b****. She'll never ever win.
Hillary has a very high approval rating (as seen in someone's link posted earlier) and beats all potential Republican challengers in polls right now. She is VERY popular - though that by no means guarantees a win as much can change. There is a huge luck factor in the nominating/electing game.