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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 28, 2017 -> 07:02 PM) Literally yes it is. If you get to 2nd base, that is a move that increases your chance to score a run. If you are thrown out, that removes your chance to score a run. For you to be a good baserunner, you have to get to 2nd base enough times successfully that it overwhelms any reduction in the runs lost due to the times you get thrown out. If he makes it there it was a correct decision, if he gets thrown out it was a wrong decision. That is how you assess this on a statistical basis - does the 5 times he gets to 2nd base mean that he generates more runs than what is cost the 2 times he gets thrown out. Not necessarily. It is all based on the average time this happens for everyone in the league. Players vary in their ability whether it be speed, taking leads etc. So the expectant run scored it an estimate on often they should score not whether or not they actually do or don't score. so it isn't really based on your chance of scoring it's more based on how often it happens on average throughout the league. the 5 times he makes it doesn't mean he will generate more runs. By this stat it is just increases the times he is expected to score based on how often all of the other players throughout the the league have scored on average. So what if this player is slower than the average player and takes a shorter lead than the others. This stat is going to be way often on how often he scores compared to how often others in the league scores. So this stat can be very misleading in how it rates this player in based running. It will penalized him for not taking the extra base, because most others would, but it would be the smart, correct choice for him. This is not a purely math stat stat based on numerical chances. It is based on the averages of how the other players in the league perform. This is not generalizable to everyone in the league. If the player is so many standard deviations from the norm it will have no applicability to the player. It is applicable to the average player. If you can find him.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Nov 28, 2017 -> 05:55 PM) I wonder if Dave Toub could be a candidate. Obviously a little more difficult to judge ST performance than OFF/DEF performance but he's been in that role for a while now and he's as highly regarded as ever. He will get interviews this year with so many expected vacancies. I would think he would get one with the Bears.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 28, 2017 -> 02:34 PM) So guys, this stuff is actually detailed in there. From the linked article here's what goes into UBR: So yeah, winding up at 2nd base when an average player would wind up at 1b is in there, including the extra run chances of a guy scoring from second. And... It only looks at what happened in relation to the expectancy for him to score. It doesn't look at should he have done those things when he should have have or shouldn't have. It doesn't take into account how often he made the correct decision or not. It only looks at the results based on the averages of the results of everyone else in the league. Being a good base runner is not just about how often you are expected to score.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 28, 2017 -> 12:36 PM) Great post. I'll also add that people get too caught up on length of contract. There's a reason that max AAV's essentially haven't increased AT ALL since Alex Rodriguez's original deal -- it's because it's the total contract value that matters way more to ownership. It was going to cost the Angels $240mm to get Albert Pujols -- it doesn't matter if it was over 10 years or four years. The owners HAVE the money, it's just a question of when they write the checks. Because of inflation, it's actually better to defer the payments to later, and for GMs, it helps them stay under the luxury tax too. When people say "I don't mind the $25mm, I just mind the eight years" or whatever, they need to realize that if it was five years, you WOULD mind the AAV. As a team, you might as well spread the cost out -- it allows you to benefit from inflation and gives you the chance to continue to benefit from the player longer, even in a diminished role. All the money to guaranteed was gone the day you signed the deal regardless of how long the deal goes. This is also why it's EXTREMELY dumb to say "The X team is paying him $25mm, they aren't going to bench him/they need to see a return on that investment." Once a guy's roster spot becomes worth more than his performance, it makes all the sense in the world to release him. To continue to allow the player suck wins from you actually REDUCES your ROI. You aren't "eating money" to let him go, you already spent that money long ago. There's no additional cost. I would disagree with this to a degree. All owners have the money. However, not all of them have the money to absorb a 20 AAV mistake. That could cripple some teams budget and mkae the team useless.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 28, 2017 -> 12:27 PM) Do you even know how it works? Here's UBR: https://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/ubr/ This stats looks at base running as a pure run expectancy as the only relevant base running plays. I would disagree that it looks at all of base running in general. Knowing how to stretch a single to a double or take an extra base isn't really considered. Neither is stealing a base. I would classify those as part of base running.

QUOTE (jamesdiego @ Nov 28, 2017 -> 12:30 PM) Sox operate under the radar. I could see a huge Stealth operation in the works for this kid. This is something I could see Kenny being in charge of, probably salivating all day long about the prospect of adding Ohtani. Wouldn't surprise me if they get Brooks to make a promo video of all the young talent we have. Show to healing hands of Herm. Pitcher whispering ability of Cooper. Hopefully they send his reps the usa today article detailing the organizations amazing way in keeping players healthy. Would not hurt in the least to show them the statistics of injuries in the league. USA Today They also might be might be interested in the info that the Rangers, Dodgers and Yankees are all near the top of the list for most days players were on the disable list from 2001-2015. Wouldn't hurt to throw a stick in competitors bicycle wheels, while at the same time showing off: Fangraphs I'm a little biased when it comes to the medical reasons but they should really push this. The kid is young, has had injury issues and will really need to work to adjust to the MLB schedule. The medical staff should be important to him, whether he thinks so or not.

QUOTE (WBWSF @ Nov 26, 2017 -> 08:49 AM) Trading Garcia and Abreu would seem to indicate that the team has no intentions of competing for anything the next few years. Instead we'll have lousy teams with low payrolls and mucho profits for JR and his investors. Then in another 4 years the team will start another 5 year rebuild. Always remember what Bill Veeck said, "5 year plans usually lead to a new 5 year plan". All depends who they get. They could get an MLB ready player. This would not push the competing timeline further down the road. Your making an assumption that the players they get are far away from the MLB. They have a good number of young ones (within 2-3 years of the MLB) so it would make sense to acquire others for that timeframe.

QUOTE (2005thxfrthmmrs @ Nov 27, 2017 -> 07:24 AM) I think yesterday's game was the worst I've seen from Trubisky. He was throwing too many passes behind the receivers instead of leading them. Missed a lot of first downs and led to an interception at the end. This is the real issue. Even with the poor talent at WR, he wasn't accurate enough to give them the chance to drop the ball. His accuracy was supposed to be the thing that separated him from the others. He hasn't shown it so far. Maybe he can't read it soon enough or is pressured too much. There are a variety of reasons but he hasn't shown much yet.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 26, 2017 -> 03:10 PM) You can't blame this game on Fox, but if the Bears are going to let him go after the season, they really should let him go now. Get a look at Fangio leading the team. They had 10,000 no shows vs Detroit, and might have double that next week vs. SF. Let Vic run that game and it might even make some more show up. The Christmas Eve game vs. Cleveland might set a team record for fan no shows. I like this idea.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 26, 2017 -> 02:50 PM) It would be nice if the Bears actually had NFL level receivers to help with their #1 pick's development. Jeffery was that. Whether he wanted to be there or not isn't really relevant. The team held all the cards. I will admit not having any receivers does help make the coaching staff look stupid. But IMO, the issue is far deeper than that. This is true. however, I don't think I would have signed him for the 16 million franchise tag either.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 26, 2017 -> 02:18 PM) You can be mad at them for their choices of signings, but I for one don't miss Alshon Jeffery. He was and still isn't worth 16 million per year. He signed for less money with the Eagles than what the Bears were offering in a multi-year deal.

QUOTE (knightni @ Nov 21, 2017 -> 11:43 AM) If they can put Selig in, anyone can go in. I always wonder about people who blame him. You do know that he instituted the drug testing in the minors and the players union fought him on putting it in the MLB. Granted he prioritized other thing things during CBA negotiations. The early 90's is when I was working in the MLB and the players were all over Selig about instituting the policy in the minors and fighting him in the MLB. I would put the blame on the MLB union (the numbers benefited the players as much as the owners) as much as I would him and the owners.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 21, 2017 -> 08:46 AM) Pitcher takes too long to deliver a pitch or calls time too often and they get a ball. Pitch clock. Right but the pitcher can wait 10 seconds or 20 or 11 or 8. The hitter has no input thus the pitcher gets to control the pace and rhythm of the game.

QUOTE (ChiSox1917 @ Nov 23, 2017 -> 12:51 PM) Moncada and his twinkie habit is not someone I'd want Maitan to be getting conditioning tips from Is it truly a conditioning thing or is it the fact as a 17 year old his body is just maturing? I have no knowledge of the matter I'm just wondering.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 22, 2017 -> 04:49 PM) I keep seeing the beat guys say if Fox is fired and Fangio isn't named the head coach, he will not be with the Bears next year. For all you posters who know more about football than I do, if they do get a new DC it really has to be a 3-4 guy doesn't it? Wouldn't going back to a 4-3 screw them up for at least a season or 2? They do have depth on the defensive line. They would just need to acquire a true nose tackle. Their linebackers are versatile enough to handle the switch.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Nov 21, 2017 -> 09:36 PM) So if it is indeed a sprain, should be expect any long-term effects? No. It should heal fine. However, reports today stated surgery is still possible. This is a cause for concern, depending on what needs surgical intervention.

QUOTE (Jack Parkman @ Nov 21, 2017 -> 08:58 PM) Reports are Floyd has a PCL/MCL. i.e. the same injury that cut Urlacher's career short. There is no good surgery for PCL. See Shawne Merriman for a younger guy who was out of the league in 2 seasons after tearing his PCL. This is worse news than an ACL. ACLs can be repaired properly, PCLs can't. That is now a 7th and a 9th overall pick in consecutive seasons that has had a career destroying injury. This is going to be pretty hard for Pace to overcome, because ultimately nobody cares whether your 1st rounder got injured and that is why they busted. They just care about results. There have been some advances in recent years. If it's torn in the mid-substance they still really don't have a good surgery. however, if it's closer to one of the ends there is a fairly good chace they could help. However, as someone else noted most reports are stating sprain not tear. A tear is technically a 3rd degree sprain but it's not usually reported that way.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 21, 2017 -> 03:57 PM) It is absolutely why they should go to an international draft. The rest of the sports world does it. The rest of the sports world also has a salary cap.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Nov 15, 2017 -> 02:18 PM) You step out of the box, you get a strike. Really unnecessary to have to adjust your batting gloves after the pitch you just took. So the pitcher gets to dictate the pace and rhythm of the game and the hitters aren't allowed to do anything about it?

QUOTE (Lillian @ Nov 19, 2017 -> 01:31 PM) Not quite sure how, or why, I'm engaging in such an "argument," but just to clarify, I never stated anything about how "swole" Kopech is. Frankly, this is the first time that I have ever even heard the term. Moreover, I'm not that impressed with Kopech's muscularity. What is impressive and apparent to me, is how hard he is training and how determined he is to become a star. I'd suggest that we wrap up this little discussion. If you agree, fine. If you disagree, feel free to argue all you want. I don't see the point and am moving on. This is the key to it all you can't teach that kind of motivation.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Nov 19, 2017 -> 11:42 AM) What Mark Buehrle did, or did not do, to strengthen his core and lower body, does not diminish the value of such training. I think you would agree with that, wouldn't you? Kopech appears to take his training very seriously, and he should reap big benefits from it. The most important groups for pitcher, and really all athletes are the hips and lats to really create the dynamic stabilization of the spine to transfer the strength of the lower extremity to the trunk.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 19, 2017 -> 09:12 AM) It works for some, others, not so much. There does seem to be a hint in this thread that other Sox pitchers don't work out. They might not get as jacked as this guy, but I would bet every one of them has a pretty extensive offseason program they go through, Another post mentioned the uniforms make these guys look a little smaller, and I agree. I think I have mentioned I almost literally ran into Jake Petricka at Soxfest last year. He looks pretty lanky in uniform, but he's a very large man . I was stunned how big he was. Yes they do. schneider has all of them on extensive programs. They just don't necessarily focus on bulk.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Nov 17, 2017 -> 11:11 AM) You know I respect your opinion and value your unique insights... that said, I must point out that Cooper is usually consulted on trades involving pitching talent. I suspect he "sees something." Of course he sees something. The guy throws hard. I'm just saying that working on his command will be a challenge from what cooper normally preaches.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 17, 2017 -> 08:36 AM) If this guy makes the big leagues dibs on calling him the Thyagomizer. the rating scale of how hard he throws each pitch should be the Thyagometer.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 16, 2017 -> 06:45 PM) The NFL requires certain amounts of information to be released during the week to satisfy the gamblers and to play in the league the players are waiving some of those rights under the CBA. Different teams push the CBA limits to different extents. The Patriots I believe have a history of being as opaque as they can be under those injury reports. also, illnesses fall under a different category than injuries for reporting. Injuries need to be a little more specific, for the gamblers to predict if he'll play or how long he'll be out.