chitownsportsfan

And this ballgame is...ovah! 17-1, damn.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Nov 30, 2017 -> 04:14 PM) I would not feel comfortable signing Abreu to a 5/100 extension right now, especially with him being on the wrong side of 30. He's a quality player, but why pay full retail now? The Sox are in a position where they absolutely should have a high asking price for him because it is only a two year guaranteed contract. Something around a 4 year/70 million deal with a 5th year team option could be doable. There's just not much incentive to pay more than that for him though. Sox are playing this the right way, listening in on Avi/Abreu but holding a high price. Putting 20 million yearly on the payroll until 2022 doesn't make a lick of sense. It makes zero sense considering the Sox already control Abreu for two of those five years. It makes negative sense when you consider he's already on the wrong side of 30. I think two things are true right now: 1) Jose Abreu's value is as high as it's ever going to be trade wise right now, this offseason 2) That isn't a reason to trade him in itself There's no rush. The Sox are going to have a helluva lot more info about their contention window next offseason. If Jose is on the club and is coming off something like a 290/350/550 year and the club is primed to contend in 2019 and there's payroll available then sign him then. Marginal wins are more important then. Jose Abreu's value to the Sox will be more relative to what it is now.

QUOTE (Tony @ Nov 30, 2017 -> 12:28 AM) If the Sox can't find a taker for Garcia this offseason, they think the value is too low, I don't want them signing him to an extension just because his value is too low on the trade market. I, like many others, aren't sold on who the real Avi is. I would think by July of 2018, we'll have a much better idea. If the Sox want to make a decision on the future of Avi then, I'm all for it, and I would actually prefer it than this offseason. You're trading an unknown commodity right now. Problem with Avi is that (imo) he's a player that is completey reliant on physical tools and in a bad way. He's a stiff athlete but he's great in straight lines. What happens at 29 when he loses that tick on his speed and explosion? His offensive value is entirely based on his running and BA. Both of those things are going to start declining way before skills like raw power and batting eye. He's fools gold IMO and I have been one of his biggest fans and advocates here since he was acquired. I am thrilled for Avi that he had a great year but he is the quintessential sell high candidate.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 30, 2017 -> 12:06 AM) Name a team that has won a pennant dominantly through Free Agency. Literally the last one I've got is the 09 Yankees. That doesn't mean teams don't get some free agents, but literally everyone is using a path different from what you said. No team can make the method work that you keep saying we shoudl do. And if you would have read the post in the Avi thread only 2 or 3 posts before you talked about how "they should sign good free agents instead of bad ones", even the teams that are winning - they have free agent busts. How about your Royals, they have a pennant right? Wouldn't they prefer to no longer have Alex Gordon's contract on the books? The Cubs and that Heyward deal? If you sign 3 free agents, the odds are one of them will be a LaRoche level bust. That's how the Free Agency market works. I mean even the f***ing Yankees realized you can't buy a winner primary through FA anymore. There's a reason Sale and Quintana brought what they brought. Pre FA studs are the most valuable commodity in baseball and you only get them prospect mining.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 11:57 PM) This is exactly what we should ask for. Sox have all the leverage here. I like it.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 06:44 PM) So why are you so insistent on the strategy of "Compete and win as much as you can" that we used from 2006-2016? No kidding. They've earned some patience by acing the first 18 months of the rebuild. There's no grade other than "A" that you could give last year. Hell, maybe give it an A- because they only managed to acquire the 4rd pick. Yea the coursework gets exponentially harder after 2018 (gotta actually start winning not acquiring prospects) but there's almost nothing to critique them on so far and we went over this in the season in review thread and rate the rebuild.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 28, 2017 -> 09:02 PM) Literally yes it is. If you get to 2nd base, that is a move that increases your chance to score a run. If you are thrown out, that removes your chance to score a run. For you to be a good baserunner, you have to get to 2nd base enough times successfully that it overwhelms any reduction in the runs lost due to the times you get thrown out. If he makes it there it was a correct decision, if he gets thrown out it was a wrong decision. That is how you assess this on a statistical basis - does the 5 times he gets to 2nd base mean that he generates more runs than what is cost the 2 times he gets thrown out. ptac is way too smart to be arguing this point. It's all based on base runs and linear weights and run expectancy. Gotta read some tangotiger.

Projected ARB salaries: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/proj...s-for-2018.html Avi seems too cheap, Jose a bit too high, imo. Not sure if any of those relievers is worth bringing back.

QUOTE (Lip Man 1 @ Nov 28, 2017 -> 04:22 PM) Getting any folks connected with a winning organization is a plus in my book regardless of position. Yep. Good move. Poach away. Also they probably had ot give him a nice little salary/position boost to get him to leave the 'Stros. Good to see the resources saved on the MLB payroll being invested when it makes sense back into the club.

Tempting. Gotta figure he's good for around 3 WAR next year. If it was 2018 offseason and the Sox were coming off 76-80 wins I'd think a whole lot harder on it. No reason to rush this year tho. If it was a sign and then immediately work out a deal maybe I'd be convinced. He's a good player. Not a star, but a very good everyday player.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Nov 21, 2017 -> 03:24 PM) It's not like you're automatically stuck with the dude all year if he doesn't produce. If there's a guy you like in the rule 5, there's absolutely no reason not to take him. I just don't think that's how the Sox will view based on Covey and Nieto. But yea, in theory.

Do not pick up any guys in the rule 5. We don't need a 25 man spot wasted all year when there will be numerous higher upside vets looking for playing time come late Jan and early Feb. Keeping a 25 man spot open for a veteran will almost certainly (imo) find a higher upside asset come late winter that is actually flippable at the deadline if they perform.

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 20, 2017 -> 10:23 PM) True, we should save the rule 5 for can’t miss prospects like dylan covey amirite!

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Nov 20, 2017 -> 09:20 PM) How do you keep Covey, Saladino, Hanson, and Garcia and not protect Guerrero, Polo, and Peter? Hopefully they think those guys have some trade value on inside info we don't have because otherwise I got nothing.

I didn't realize the Sox pushed Basabe into A+ this year either. Well he'll get to repeat the level next year at 21 and if he does something like 280/340/400 he'll be back on a decent track.

QUOTE (Tony @ Nov 20, 2017 -> 06:41 PM) But the debate is him being selected and placed on an MLB roster for the entire year, correct? Some tanking club just might be desperate enough to try it. And imagine Basabe turns into a solid 3 WAR CF -- the fans and the GM would have a tough time explaining that one.

QUOTE (SoxAce @ Nov 20, 2017 -> 06:35 PM) He was 20. Good lord. +1 for succinctness which I did not have.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Nov 20, 2017 -> 06:18 PM) So am I the only one to question why in the world Basabe needs to be protected, other than the front office protecting their own assets there? He was awful in A ball. Because he's young and toolsy. This time last year nobody really thought Micker was anything but then he went and had a pretty good season. If Basabe is hitting 220/250/300 as a 23 year old in A+ yea cut him loose but he's got plenty of time to figure things out. Next year will be his age 21 season he's got time.

Why the f*** are they hanging onto Covey? It's puzzling to me why they have invested so much into this guy.

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 20, 2017 -> 05:02 PM) I'm surprised Guerrero is mad. If he's picked he is in the majors next year, if he's not he's in...the same place with the org he already was in. Isn't the rule 5 draft kind of a favor to exactly these sort of players? I get it from a competitive standpoint -- as a player you want to feel wanted and obviously he gets a nice little pay increase as a 40 man member as well. But yea this really just means he now has a decent shot at being on MLB roster next year.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Nov 20, 2017 -> 05:27 PM) Any chance Saladino is cut by then? Don't see the point in having him anymore when Yolmer does his job better/his back issues Cutting Tyler would be doing him a favor as well. Yolmer is a 1.5-2.5 WAR 3B and so far has been an iron man in terms of injuries. There's no reason not to pencil him in for 140 odd games at 3B next year. With Moncada and Anderson also young and needing reps I'd expect there only to be about 40 or so starts between the three positions up for grabs next year.

Clarkin, really? Nobody was going to pick that guy.

QUOTE (Quin @ Nov 20, 2017 -> 02:16 PM) These remain the dumbest part of baseball + a million. So dumb.

Kopech is exciting. The Sox are going to be exciting in the next decade hopefully. You get a true masher like Eloy at cleanup, an ace like Kopech at the top, and an athletic OBP stud like Moncada up the middle and you fill in around them and oh boy the mind can wander.

If you can get a B prospect and a couple C+ guys, especially hard throwing relievers that perhaps Cooper has ID'd, make the deal. If they aren't willing to give that, then forget about it as he'll have similar value at the trade deadline if he hits something like 280/330/460, which he's capable of even with regression.